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Post by James Dunne on Feb 14, 2020 8:29:43 GMT -5
Pillar had a 91 wRC+ vs. RHP after he switched to pull hitting, 77 at home and 104 on the road. Giants RHB on balls they pulled had a .392 wOBA at home, .422 on the road, so some of that split is real. Sox had a .538 at home and .497 on the road. He can start some games over JBJ vs. RHP, especially at Fenway.
(He had a 144 wRC+ vs. LHP, 141 at home and 145 on the road.) Very good question: who play's where? 1) You want to keep Verdugo in one position, since both CF and RF at Fenway have a leaning curve. 2) In terms of defense, Bradley -> Verdugo -> Pillar.
3) Pillar will be platooning with all 3 guys at times, but mostly with JBJ. I think you keep in CF, but it's not obvious.
A lot of this also depends on how much rest Verdugo needs too, right? He's coming off a back injury and it can be cold in Boston in the spring, so I think Pillar sees a lot of ABs in the first six weeks. That should give enough time to evaluate (at least observationally) how his game is playing at Fenway and what adjustments he's made. I agree about keeping Verdugo in RF generally - with a good backup CF there's no reason to play that back-and-forth game. I guess the only difference would be is if they definitely see him as the long-term answer in center and want to get him some work there. Especially so if they are playing to go hard after the current Dodgers right fielder, who is a free agent after this season. That would make Verdugo's adjustment period harder but if they're focusing on building to 2021 then it makes sense. Striking that balance that they should be competitive in 2020 but are building back to expecting to be a championship contender in 2021-22 is going to be a tough part of Roenicke's job.
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Post by caseytins on Feb 14, 2020 8:51:53 GMT -5
Pillar has a career .307 average at Fenway in what is not a small sample size. His swing is a perfect fit for Fenway. This is why I was only half joking when I suggest that he could be a good leadoff hitter versus some LHP.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 14, 2020 8:57:34 GMT -5
Lmao fun fact: Pillar finished 22nd in MVP voting this year with a negative dWAR and an OBP below .300
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 14, 2020 9:03:20 GMT -5
Pillar has a career .307 average at Fenway in what is not a small sample size. His swing is a perfect fit for Fenway. This is why I was only half joking when I suggest that he could be a good leadoff hitter versus some LHP. He has an .080 ISO and 1 HR in 191 PA at Fenway. His OPS there is .719. He also hits more FB to RF than LF.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 14, 2020 9:06:28 GMT -5
Lmao fun fact: Pillar finished 22nd in MVP voting this year with a negative dWAR and an OBP below .300 Hey, his OBP was .111 points higher than the guy he tied with.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 14, 2020 10:50:57 GMT -5
Pillar has a career .307 average at Fenway in what is not a small sample size. His swing is a perfect fit for Fenway. This is why I was only half joking when I suggest that he could be a good leadoff hitter versus some LHP. His spray chart makes it look like he has literally never hit a major league home run that was not to the left of straightaway center. Can someone do or find the layover with Fenway?
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Post by manfred on Feb 14, 2020 11:12:15 GMT -5
It is hard to see this signing mattering. I agree that signing depth guys is essential, but it assumes the front line is up to snuff. Signing a 4th OF who is not as good as your first three when those first three are full of holes and questions? Whatevs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 14, 2020 11:15:55 GMT -5
It is hard to see this signing mattering. I agree that signing depth guys is essential, but it assumes the front line is up to snuff. Signing a 4th OF who is not as good as your first three when those first three are full of holes and questions? Whatevs. Bud, you are trying WAY too hard to be negative about literally everything right now. You're now complaining that they signed a fourth outfielder who is a fourth outfielder. It's fine to be upset about the Betts trade. It's not OK to let it bleed into every other discussion on the forum.
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Post by manfred on Feb 14, 2020 12:06:27 GMT -5
It is hard to see this signing mattering. I agree that signing depth guys is essential, but it assumes the front line is up to snuff. Signing a 4th OF who is not as good as your first three when those first three are full of holes and questions? Whatevs. Bud, you are trying WAY too hard to be negative about literally everything right now. You're now complaining that they signed a fourth outfielder who is a fourth outfielder. It's fine to be upset about the Betts trade. It's not OK to let it bleed into every other discussion on the forum. I am not upset. I think it is a fine move. But it is also not worth a hige amount of analysis, since assuming Pillar plays anywhere on his full spectrum of outcomes, it isn’t going to change anything. Truthfully, I’d say the same if this team sucked, was mediocre, or was a juggernaut. In any event, they should hope it is a very minor transaction, because the more it matters, the more likely something has gone wrong. I see it as the near equivalent of going deep into signing a 6th inning reliever.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 14, 2020 12:17:45 GMT -5
Bud, you are trying WAY too hard to be negative about literally everything right now. You're now complaining that they signed a fourth outfielder who is a fourth outfielder. It's fine to be upset about the Betts trade. It's not OK to let it bleed into every other discussion on the forum. I am not upset. I think it is a fine move. But it is also not worth a hige amount of analysis, since assuming Pillar plays anywhere on his full spectrum of outcomes, it isn’t going to change anything. Truthfully, I’d say the same if this team sucked, was mediocre, or was a juggernaut. In any event, they should hope it is a very minor transaction, because the more it matters, the more likely something has gone wrong. I see it as the near equivalent of going deep into signing a 6th inning reliever. So don't analyze it. We all think it's a minor transaction, and we're on a website that takes a lot of joy in talking about minor transactions. I could spend 20 minutes talking about the roster-building mistakes surrounding Ben Taylor. This is a true story, I was looking up something today about Markelle Fultz and googled Aaron Fultz. Minor transactions are my bag.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 14, 2020 13:44:48 GMT -5
This is a true story, I was looking up something today about Markelle Fultz and googled Aaron Fultz. Minor transactions are my bag. Did you google "how awesome is Danny Ainge for passing on Markelle Fultz and drafting Jayson Tatum instead"? Because I find myself doing that surprisingly often.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 14, 2020 13:57:58 GMT -5
This is a true story, I was looking up something today about Markelle Fultz and googled Aaron Fultz. Minor transactions are my bag. Did you google "how awesome is Danny Ainge for passing on Markelle Fultz and drafting Jayson Tatum instead"? Because I find myself doing that surprisingly often. Basically, yes.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 14, 2020 13:58:52 GMT -5
This is a true story, I was looking up something today about Markelle Fultz and googled Aaron Fultz. Minor transactions are my bag. Did you google "how awesome is Danny Ainge for passing on Markelle Fultz and drafting Jayson Tatum instead"? Because I find myself doing that surprisingly often. Nevermind getting Langford as a bonus for doing that!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 14, 2020 14:39:17 GMT -5
Pillar has a career .307 average at Fenway in what is not a small sample size. His swing is a perfect fit for Fenway. This is why I was only half joking when I suggest that he could be a good leadoff hitter versus some LHP. His spray chart makes it look like he has literally never hit a major league home run that was not to the left of straightaway center. Can someone do or find the layover with Fenway? The only spray chart that look like it's relevant is the one from June 18th of last year on. The spray charts at FanGraphs, unlike most of their other tools, won't let you set start and end dates. StatCast doesn't seem to do them anymore, and Brooks doesn't have 2017-2019.
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 14, 2020 16:27:52 GMT -5
Looks like about 12 MM left to spend before 208 now according to this report.
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Post by caseytins on Feb 14, 2020 17:39:39 GMT -5
Pillar has a career .307 average at Fenway in what is not a small sample size. His swing is a perfect fit for Fenway. This is why I was only half joking when I suggest that he could be a good leadoff hitter versus some LHP. His spray chart makes it look like he has literally never hit a major league home run that was not to the left of straightaway center. Can someone do or find the layover with Fenway? Most all of his Homeruns were to LF last year (in San Fran). His power is definitely to the pull side. Fangraphs has a chart, but I can't link it for some reason..
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Post by Ryanod1 on Feb 14, 2020 19:33:17 GMT -5
This is really impressive. Thank you. Its interesting that pulling the ball can be an advantage to some. I can imagine it would take very particular hitters to make it so. Most likely an upgrade for a player with fringy patience, very good contact and bat speed, and underwhelming power. On the other end of the spectrum we saw what happened to Michael Chavis when he got pull heavy vs what he became using the entire field. I already really liked Puello for a lot of reasons, and I like him more now. Fenway Park should be his friend for sure. I can't believe that he would rank #1 after June 18th (if kept up all year). 14th is still exceptional. Now you have me confused. Those are Pillar's numbers. Hahaha sorry. Probably why the numbers seemed so impressive. Just didn't process it
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Post by Ryanod1 on Feb 14, 2020 19:38:47 GMT -5
Now you have me confused. Those are Pillar's numbers. I thought that was clear, since Puello's not a veteran, didn't have 600 PA last year ... and this isn't his thread, it's Pillar's. (But tweaked the first line to make it explicit, anyway.)
Re his pull hitting, he did finish 14th of 135 guys for pulling the ball. But there was no point in the season where he was that hitter. He ranked 103 of 157 qualifiers on June 17. From then on, he ranked 3rd of 143 qualifiers, after Kole Calhoun and Miguel Sano. (Calhoun finished 5th on the season, while Sano didn't qualify.)
My bad dude. Was just being dumb haha.
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Post by dirtdog on Feb 14, 2020 22:55:41 GMT -5
Interesting that Pillar had his best season in SF which is generally not considered a hitters park. I think Pillar plays a lot and generally makes us happy when he does. I endorse this move.
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 14, 2020 23:01:59 GMT -5
Pillar signing now official. Good news considering the primary return on the Betts trade has a bad back and may not be ready to start the season.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 15, 2020 6:29:53 GMT -5
His spray chart makes it look like he has literally never hit a major league home run that was not to the left of straightaway center. Can someone do or find the layover with Fenway? The only spray chart that look like it's relevant is the one from June 18th of last year on. The spray charts at FanGraphs, unlike most of their other tools, won't let you set start and end dates. StatCast doesn't seem to do them anymore, and Brooks doesn't have 2017-2019. So a chart showing he has only hit home runs when he pulled in the last seven years is not relevant? That claim is ... interesting.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 15, 2020 9:20:13 GMT -5
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 15, 2020 13:48:46 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 15, 2020 15:47:48 GMT -5
The only spray chart that look like it's relevant is the one from June 18th of last year on. The spray charts at FanGraphs, unlike most of their other tools, won't let you set start and end dates. StatCast doesn't seem to do them anymore, and Brooks doesn't have 2017-2019. So a chart showing he has only hit home runs when he pulled in the last seven years is not relevant? That claim is ... interesting. It would be completely worthless as a predictor of how many homers he might hit for the Red Sox, yes. He's popping up a lot more than he used to, so there's a suggestion that his launch angle may have changed, so what he did before June 18 is meaningless.
That he had no opposite-field HR power at all before the change may have factored into the decision to try changing his swing.
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Post by caseytins on Feb 15, 2020 18:20:37 GMT -5
So a chart showing he has only hit home runs when he pulled in the last seven years is not relevant? That claim is ... interesting. It would be completely worthless as a predictor of how many homers he might hit for the Red Sox, yes. He's popping up a lot more than he used to, so there's a suggestion that his launch angle may have changed, so what he did before June 18 is meaningless.
That he had no opposite-field HR power at all before the change may have factored into the decision to try changing his swing.
He still has little opposite field power. His power is to the pull side now with the swing change. He will be abusing that LF wall!!
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