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Red Sox trade Workman and Hembree to the Phillies
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2020 5:41:39 GMT -5
You got a low-floor, high-ceiling guy, and the opposite. I like that. The Bronson Arroyo comparison for Seabold seems spot on. When the Sox claimed him on waivers from the Pirates I went deep into his ml numbers and got excited, and said so on SoSH. IIRC, people didn't buy my argument that his big improvement in his last year in AAA was so extreme it had to be real. Then they barely pitched him in ST and passed him through waivers, and people got even more skeptical. You know the rest (except maybe that they should have just given him the vacant rotation slot that year instead of trading for Suppan). Seabold is not in either BA's or MLB's top 30 Phillies prospects. Three other rankings had him at 7, 17, and 24. A lot of rankers are obsessed with upside and don't get the value of a guy who is very likely to be a #4 starter. And the other half of the disrespect is not believing that his AFL performance was meaningful. But as I collate the various reports, it seems as if he did something with his changeup that boosted it from average to plus. Pivetta's career OPS allowed splits by batting order position: 1 & 2: 810 3 & 4: 938 5 & 6: 763 7 - 9: 892. WT? High K rate, low BB rate, so he's just challenging guys he thinks aren't a threat and they torch him. He also has a reverse split where righties hit for more power, which could be the same syndrome. Splits by outs in inning (excluding IBB and SH; HRC = HR / Contact)
PA* BA OBP SLG K% BB% HRC BABIP 643 .318 .372 .530 .216 .079 .065 .369 559 .274 .331 .509 .272 .077 .078 .331 508 .218 .310 .376 .256 .102 .047 .272 This is just silly. With 2 outs, he's much more willing to walk a guy (44% more!), and his hardness of contact is immensely better. It's the same thing as above, where he's unwilling to walk 7 through 9 hitters, and they take him deep way more often than normal.
Maybe the Phillies have tried to get him to change his approach and he can't or wont. But figuring how many millions of $$ he can make if he gives it a shot, you have to wonder whether they've just missed this. Incidentally, when Buchholz struggled early in his career, the big breakthrough came when he allowed his K / BB rate to worsen and his BABIP dropped hugely. I have a start-by-start study of the season where it happened and you can see him fine-tuning his approach over stretches of starts.
They'll have 4 years of control, thanks to the Phils sending him to the Alternate Site most of the year so far.
So this might not be the all-time steal, but you've seen his stuff, and I'm at a loss as to why he can't approach that .218 / .310 / .376 line all the time if he just uses his 2-out approach. And those numbers include being too aggressive with weak hitters and righties!
Meanwhile, the Phillies are 9-13 but just 1.5 GB the 8th seed. Given that they have to win 2 out of 3 on the road to advance ... that's an awful lot of talent for 30+ games of Workman and a year+ of Hembree, whose role is 4th RHP in the pen. ---- We know that JBJ or Pillar will very likely be dealt (quite possibly to the Rockies). We should see see Puello, who'll get a shot to win the 4th OFer spot for next year.
The question is whether they'll both go, and if so, who becomes the 4th OFer. The Indians and Orioles are other prospective buyers.
I'll be really surprised if they deal anyone else.
I'd be surprised if they don't deal anyone else. Moreland is screaming me, me, me. I also think they will come away with at least one of the Cleveland duo and neither of them are coming here for a rental.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2020 6:30:55 GMT -5
Piling on here, a nice move would be packaging Pivetta & someone else plus cash for a cost controlled upgrade, Plesac or whitley, for example.
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Post by cheers on Aug 22, 2020 7:01:16 GMT -5
Nice to see you stop by Eric. I always enjoy your thoughtful analysis.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 22, 2020 7:09:58 GMT -5
Quite happy with this result. Neither Workman nor Hembree are irreplaceable in the bullpen. Tampa Bay for years have been able to find cheap arms for the pen who have pitched to great success and I have to hope Bloom has learned a thing or two in these regards. The one thing that is harder to find are cheap controllable starting pitching options and there are two coming back in this trade. Pivetta has quality stuff but has not put it together for any long stretches but is a quality piece as a 4th starter. Seabold has upside if not top of the rotation stuff. I for one enjoy a good command and control pitcher in the rotation and believe these pitchers are often underrated, although Seabold seems to have the love of the scouting community. I’m surprised after watching this years starting staff that anyone would not think this is a win. In a lost season Boston essentially is giving up 1 year of Hembree for 3 arb years of Pivetta, who is making about 500,000 this season (162 game value), and 6 seasons of Seabold. A rotation next season of Sale once he’s healthy, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Pivetta, some combo of Perez, Godley and/or a Free Agent (#3 to #5) doesn’t seem bad to me. The offense should be very competitive next season just on in house replacements. This doesn’t need to be a complete tear down and rebuild with a core of Bogaerts, Devers, JD and Verdugo supplemented by some reasonable prospects in Casas, Downs, Dalbec and Duran and quality depth at other positions. Oh that rotation is going to be bad, it’s going to be real bad. Sales not pitching in Boston until after the all star break maybe not until August or even September. If Bloom runs that SP rotation out to open the season he needs to be tarred & feathered. Pivetta, Perez & Godley? Come on man! You can’t be serious when you say that doesn’t seem bad.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2020 7:35:32 GMT -5
Because it's funny:
Section 10 Podcast @section10pod · 10h Fun Fact: Brandon Workman has more World Series at-bats than Aaron Judge.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 22, 2020 8:29:44 GMT -5
Piling on here, a nice move would be packaging Pivetta & someone else plus cash for a cost controlled upgrade, Plesac or whitley, for example. If they can, great. But I don't think Pivetta has a lit if value on his own and they got him as a buy-low/reclamation type they seem so.something they can tweak. I don't see him moving the needle on those types of talwnts right now. ----- I agree with the several posters above who think #23 feels low for Seabold.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 22, 2020 8:51:11 GMT -5
We're talking about two 31 year-olds with a total of 5 WAR between them in all the years they've spent with the team. Workman is certainly someone who put everything into it and he'll be missed.
But while I haven't checked out Pivetta yet, Seabold's peripherals are eye-opening. He's been in the Phillies' system for only 2 years after his days at Cal State Fullerton and he's done nothing but get better. The AZL K/BB rate was just silly, but he showed something similar in AA before heading off to Arizona last year. If he does pan out as a mid-to-backend starter he could easily eclipse that 5 WAR total in a couple of seasons.
I'm always surprised when people attach such high value to relievers. It's almost never justified.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2020 9:05:22 GMT -5
We're talking about two 31 year-olds with a total of 5 WAR between them in all the years they've spent with the team. Workman is certainly someone who put everything into it and he'll be missed. But while I haven't checked out Pivetta yet, Seabold's peripherals are eye-opening. He's been in the Phillies' system for only 2 years after his days at Cal State Fullerton and he's done nothing but get better. The AZL K/BB rate was just silly, but he showed something similar in AA before heading off to Arizona last year. If he does pan out as a mid-to-backend starter he could easily eclipse that 5 WAR total in a couple of seasons. I'm always surprised when people attach such high value to relievers. It's almost never justified. I think in the Phillies case it was more out of necessity. One tweet I read said their bullpen ERA was the highest in history (almost 9 iirc).
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 22, 2020 9:06:06 GMT -5
FYI
Phil's bullpen ERA is 8.00
Phillies want to stay under the luxury tax. Thus, Sox are paying 85% of remaining salary for '20. So, it's not an extra $800k ... just the money in the payroll commitments.
Awesome trade. Sox Nation wants to see these guys in the rotation ... next few weeks.
Workman, Hembree: you can watch them this October in playoffs.
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Post by cba82 on Aug 22, 2020 9:08:14 GMT -5
“I'm always surprised when people attach such high value to relievers. It's almost never justified.” — Larry Anderson says hi.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 22, 2020 9:15:12 GMT -5
More Seabold hype please
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2020 9:23:36 GMT -5
There's also the available market. The Sox had the best available closer. They probably still do in Barnes. There isn't much out there.
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 22, 2020 9:25:06 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 22, 2020 9:47:02 GMT -5
The Seabold hype is getting a little overheated. His 2018 wasn't great, his more impressive 2019 wasn't over very many innings, and the team that traded him away were the only ones that got to scout him in 2020.
Still, I think the Red Sox made a good trade.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 22, 2020 9:49:29 GMT -5
A. Both are NL milb pitcher. Both are lousy, lousy hitters. Pivetta can't bunt and won't take a walk. B. Pivetta, RHP age 27, appears to have an option left, hopefully for '21. '17, optioned. '18 MLB D.L. '19 optioned. 8-11-20 optioned. 2.094 service time, end '19. FA Oct'23 at earliest. www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=180877&View=TranxC. Seabold RHP age 24. Rule 5, Dec '20. So going on the 40-man very soon. PS If scouts refer to you as an "under the radar prospect", you aren't flying low enough.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2020 11:05:01 GMT -5
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 22, 2020 11:06:31 GMT -5
Shawaryn, Gonsalves, Arroyo are all DFA this week. With open spot, Sox can pull one back to roster, either BEFORE or after waivers. Rules allow it.
Save Arroyo.
I can footnote, if necessary.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 22, 2020 11:32:44 GMT -5
"if a player is traded after being "Recalled - Not to Report" and then is optioned to the minors by his new club within 24 hours after the trade, the player can be recalled (without any restriction) prior to spending ten days on option." Pivetta's 20th day is 8/31. (Burns last option year) He can be recalled before then. (Avoid the burning) www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3521I hope the Sox get 5 years from him. '20 BOS, minimum. 3.094 '21 BOS/AAA, last option year, ARB. 75 days or fewer in MLB. 3.169 '22 BOS, ARB. 4.169 '23 BOS, ARB. 5.169 '24 BOS, ARB. 6.169 Free agent
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2020 12:32:10 GMT -5
A free agent reliever at the end of the year and an above average reliever that I’ve seen people shredding on these boards for years for a wild card with major league experience (albeit not particularly good results) and a high minors prospect. I’m not sure what anyone could realistically expect for 30 games this year and whatever season we have next year, but that’s not a bad return at all. I feel like a lot of the Hembree thrashing was purely political. It seems like after he came out and supported the president people went for his throat. On the field he's an average reliever who on this team was probably 3rd in the pecking order for saves. He did a good job for the team. The 5.59 ERA didn't help. He honestly was never really that good. Last year, his FIP was 4.78. Him being 3rd best is more of an indictment to the bullpen rather than a compliment to him.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2020 12:34:06 GMT -5
I really hope the Red Sox 3 game win streak hasn't complicated matters on what needs to be done.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 22, 2020 12:52:20 GMT -5
I feel like a lot of the Hembree thrashing was purely political. It seems like after he came out and supported the president people went for his throat. On the field he's an average reliever who on this team was probably 3rd in the pecking order for saves. He did a good job for the team. The 5.59 ERA didn't help. He honestly was never really that good. Last year, his FIP was 4.78. Him being 3rd best is more of an indictment to the bullpen rather than a compliment to him. He's got a 1.241 whip, which really reflects his pitching this year better than his ERA. He's never been a negative bwar player. His worst season was his first in Boston 10 innings 0 bwar. Which for relievers is actually crazy good and useful. I always said if he's the last guy in your bullpen you have at worst an Okay bullpen. He's actually been a fairly underrated guy because he's always in that .4 to .5 bwar range. Yet that is a very useful piece in any bullpen. This year highlights how you can't just easily find a bunch of guys as good as him. The Phillies are going to love him given that bullpen. Also give Cherington some credit for getting him in the Peavy trade if I remember right.
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Post by marrcus on Aug 22, 2020 13:08:26 GMT -5
It was funny when O'Brien was talking trade last night. You could tell by his tone something would be revealed after the game. He was talking to confident, about what he expected. He'd been tipped.
If I were GMing the Reds I would try to get home town guy Benny on the cheap. I don't think we'd give him away but I do think he's PO people.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2020 13:26:14 GMT -5
The 5.59 ERA didn't help. He honestly was never really that good. Last year, his FIP was 4.78. Him being 3rd best is more of an indictment to the bullpen rather than a compliment to him. He's got a 1.241 whip, which really reflects his pitching this year better than his ERA. He's never been a negative bwar player. His worst season was his first in Boston 10 innings 0 bwar. Which for relievers is actually crazy good and useful. I always said if he's the last guy in your bullpen you have at worst an Okay bullpen. He's actually been a fairly underrated guy because he's always in that .4 to .5 bwar range. Yet that is a very useful piece in any bullpen. This year highlights how you can't just easily find a bunch of guys as good as him. The Phillies are going to love him given that bullpen. Also give Cherington some credit for getting him in the Peavy trade if I remember right. His FIP was still 4.72. He's better than his numbers suggest, but he's pretty mediocre.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 22, 2020 13:28:27 GMT -5
Well, the 3 game winning streak isn't helping their draft position, but Bloom isn't going to blow up long-term plans for that.
I almost feel like Rachel Phelps from Major League when I say, "There's still time to turn this around and lose." Hopefully the Sox return to their losing ways again. haha. Maybe they can find a way to play TB and NYY more often.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 22, 2020 13:30:54 GMT -5
He's got a 1.241 whip, which really reflects his pitching this year better than his ERA. He's never been a negative bwar player. His worst season was his first in Boston 10 innings 0 bwar. Which for relievers is actually crazy good and useful. I always said if he's the last guy in your bullpen you have at worst an Okay bullpen. He's actually been a fairly underrated guy because he's always in that .4 to .5 bwar range. Yet that is a very useful piece in any bullpen. This year highlights how you can't just easily find a bunch of guys as good as him. The Phillies are going to love him given that bullpen. Also give Cherington some credit for getting him in the Peavy trade if I remember right. His FIP was still 4.72. He's better than his numbers suggest, but he's pretty mediocre. Hembree was never as bad as he seemed, but also never as good as you'd hope for. When he was going well, you'd want to give him high leverage, but you knew he couldn't handle it. And if you wanted to DFA him, he'd start pitching better. That was the Heath Hembree experience in a nutshell. I will say he did do fine in the 2018 post-season. I figured he'd be the losing pitcher in Game 3 of the World Series, but he wasn't. He did the job when he was in there.
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