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Red Sox trade Workman and Hembree to the Phillies
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 22, 2020 13:53:19 GMT -5
He's got a 1.241 whip, which really reflects his pitching this year better than his ERA. He's never been a negative bwar player. His worst season was his first in Boston 10 innings 0 bwar. Which for relievers is actually crazy good and useful. I always said if he's the last guy in your bullpen you have at worst an Okay bullpen. He's actually been a fairly underrated guy because he's always in that .4 to .5 bwar range. Yet that is a very useful piece in any bullpen. This year highlights how you can't just easily find a bunch of guys as good as him. The Phillies are going to love him given that bullpen. Also give Cherington some credit for getting him in the Peavy trade if I remember right. His FIP was still 4.72. He's better than his numbers suggest, but he's pretty mediocre. He's out performed his FIP in 7/8 seasons, the one year he didn't his ERA was 4.20 and his FIP was 4.19. His career ERA is 3.60 and his career FIP is 4.22. Very clear FIP doesn't do a good job with him and frankly with a lot of pitchers. He is what he is, a solid bullpen arm. For a Phillies team with currently the worst bullpen ERA in History, he's a big upgrade. Which I find funny given our bullpen. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 22, 2020 15:37:35 GMT -5
Nice to see you stop by Eric. I always enjoy your thoughtful analysis. I was absolutely expecting to go to bed really early last night, even before 3:30 AM (which has happened once in the last month).
At 3 AM I started looking into Pivetta's numbers, and I ended up going to bed at 8:50.
I woke up at 3 PM and my first thought was, OMG -- that breakdown by outs, I've got to redo it by all 24 base-out situations!
And my second thought was, I haven't even looked into his pitch arsenal or plate discipline metrics, or any of his Statcast data!
I just had a conversation with my housemate / best friend / ex-wife where I figured out that I will be ultimately happier if I resist the urge to spend all day doing just that and instead devote my time to less important things, stuff like paying bills.
But I'll be back, maybe Sunday early AM. And thanks for the praise!
In the meantime, tonight is a big game for Godley, who has alternated great and terrible outings and is scheduled for the latter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2020 16:04:59 GMT -5
Eric, just some points of info:
1) Seabold was #30 in the BA Handbook for Philly. The draftees pushed him off midseason.
2) I think he was #23 on MLB Pipeline. They had already moved him when you looked, I think.
3) Pivetta was with the MLB club until he was optioned on 8/11. I actually have a question in with a source to see how long he'd need to stay down for the Red Sox to get an extra year of control.
---------
DFA, I think manipulating the service time to get an extra year of control is of far more importance than preserving his option.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 22, 2020 16:46:14 GMT -5
Eric, just some points of info: 3) Pivetta was with the MLB club until he was optioned on 8/11. I actually have a question in with a source to see how long he'd need to stay down for the Red Sox to get an extra year of control. --------- DFA, I think manipulating the service time to get an extra year of control is of far more importance than preserving his option. my best recollection: 2021, next season - 172-94=78 days of service time in 2021 would put him at 4.00. So Sox would need to keep him at 77 service days, or in AAA for 106 days. (183-77) 2020, this season - keeping him at ATS this year instead, pro-rates by about 3. That is 35 days at ATS ... September 15. (106/3=35) I'll try to come up with my best answer in about 15 min. |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 22, 2020 16:58:30 GMT -5
186 days normal 2020 season
66 days actual 2020 season
multiplier is 186/66 = 2.82
78 / 2.82 = 27.67
do they round up? if not, 27 service days in 2020 is not enough for Pivetta to get a full year to 3.00, but 28 days is enough for him.
66-27=39
39 days in ATS keeps him at 27 days in MLB and below 3.00 service time, end of 2020.
39 days would be September 19th. (Yeah, 27 service days pro-rates to 76 days ... added to 94 is 170. Short of a year which is 172.)
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Post by patford on Aug 22, 2020 17:09:37 GMT -5
Some GMs have a lot of people around to remind them of things and attend to all the details and various aspects. Bloom has a lot of people around to sharpen his pencils.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 22, 2020 17:34:21 GMT -5
Some GMs have a lot of people around to remind them of things and attend to all the details and various aspects. Bloom has a lot of people around to sharpen his pencils. I really hope that isn't true. For me a good GM is like a good coach. He makes the final decisions, yet a huge part of his job is getting others to perform at high levels, while putting them in the best positions to succeed. No one guy can do it all in today's game. Every GM has a massive group and they can't micro manage everything while looking at the big picture also. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 22, 2020 18:53:57 GMT -5
Some GMs have a lot of people around to remind them of things and attend to all the details and various aspects. Bloom has a lot of people around to sharpen his pencils. I really hope that isn't true. For me a good GM is like a good coach. He makes the final decisions, yet a huge part of his job is getting others to perform at high levels, while putting them in the best positions to succeed. No one guy can do it all in today's game. Every GM has a massive group and they can't micro manage everything while looking at the big picture also. He just made that up out of thin air. You're 100% correct.
He has Zack Scott as one of his 4 chief guys, heading analytics. Zack was my direct superior starting in 2006, when he got promoted from just a guy in the department to "Assistant to the GM" when Jed Hoyer was promoted from that role to "Assistant GM"* when Josh Byrnes left. That's a lot of years of experience to become a highly-paid pencil sharpener.
* Yes, this is exactly like Dwight Shrute and Jim Halpern and the "Regional Manager" position at Dunder-Mifflin, except the titles were real!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 22, 2020 19:11:13 GMT -5
Eric, just some points of info: 1) Seabold was #30 in the BA Handbook for Philly. The draftees pushed him off midseason. 2) I think he was #23 on MLB Pipeline. They had already moved him when you looked, I think. 3) Pivetta was with the MLB club until he was optioned on 8/11. I actually have a question in with a source to see how long he'd need to stay down for the Red Sox to get an extra year of control. --------- DFA, I think manipulating the service time to get an extra year of control is of far more importance than preserving his option. Thanks for all that info, Chris! It didn't occur to me that Pipeline would be so quick.
I did sneak a peak at Pivetta's pitch-type results while typing up my promise to do no more research about him today. And I have not!
But I did chew over all the data I already knew while I was nuking and eating lunch.
His best pitches are his curve and slider, but he has a bigger than average split between getting ahead and behind in the count. His fastball's been a bad pitch.
Hypothesis: with less than 2 outs, he'll throw the breaking stuff ahead in the count as a chase pitch, and hence for strikeouts, but because he's terrified of big innings and 3-run jacks, he will not try to get guys to chase when he's behind in the count, fearing they won't bite.
Which is obviously backwards. When guys are ahead 2-0 they're sitting on the FB, and that's exactly when you do want to throw a curve in the dirt or a slider away.
Instead, he throws the FB. Which they often hit out. Which makes him terrified of big innings and 3-run jacks.
So he doesn't trust his stuff.
There are still things that are totally puzzling. His changeup is his worst pitch, so how can he have been tougher on lefties than righties? He doesn't throw it much, though.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 22, 2020 20:52:23 GMT -5
Eric, just some points of info: 1) Seabold was #30 in the BA Handbook for Philly. The draftees pushed him off midseason. 2) I think he was #23 on MLB Pipeline. They had already moved him when you looked, I think. 3) Pivetta was with the MLB club until he was optioned on 8/11. I actually have a question in with a source to see how long he'd need to stay down for the Red Sox to get an extra year of control. --------- DFA, I think manipulating the service time to get an extra year of control is of far more importance than preserving his option. Thanks for all that info, Chris! It didn't occur to me that Pipeline would be so quick. I did sneak a peak at Pivetta's pitch-type results while typing up my promise to do no more research about him today. And I have not!
But I did chew over all the data I already knew while I was nuking and eating lunch. His best pitches are his curve and slider, but he has a bigger than average split between getting ahead and behind in the count. His fastball's been a bad pitch.
Hypothesis: with less than 2 outs, he'll throw the breaking stuff ahead in the count as a chase pitch, and hence for strikeouts, but because he's terrified of big innings and 3-run jacks, he will not try to get guys to chase when he's behind in the count, fearing they won't bite. Which is obviously backwards. When guys are ahead 2-0 they're sitting on the FB, and that's exactly when you do want to throw a curve in the dirt or a slider away.
Instead, he throws the FB. Which they often hit out. Which makes him terrified of big innings and 3-run jacks. So he doesn't trust his stuff. There are still things that are totally puzzling. His changeup is his worst pitch, so how can he have been tougher on lefties than righties? He doesn't throw it much, though.
So does this trade help, hurt or is it indifferent to the Sox? We got younger and have greater control but did we step forward on talent or promise? |
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 22, 2020 21:03:07 GMT -5
Workman came on to try to get out of an 8th inning traffic jam courtesy of the Phillies former closer Neris. First pitch of Workman's Phillies career, 2-run go ahead double for the Braves. Ouch...if the Phillies keep losing, I could see them selling at the deadline (hopefully they don't get more for Workman than we did, lol).
That said, Phillies have a rally going in the top of the 9th so maybe Workman still gets the chance to save this one.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 22, 2020 21:29:47 GMT -5
Workman came on to try to get out of an 8th inning traffic jam courtesy of the Phillies former closer Neris. First pitch of Workman's Phillies career, 2-run go ahead double for the Braves. Ouch...if the Phillies keep losing, I could see them selling at the deadline (hopefully they don't get more for Workman than we did, lol). That said, Phillies have a rally going in the top of the 9th so maybe Workman still gets the chance to save this one. Workman gives up a walkoff single after the Phillies tied it in the top of the inning. Phillies have the second worst record in the NL. |
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sdl
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Post by sdl on Aug 22, 2020 22:20:09 GMT -5
I live near the Phillies complex and I've seen Seabold pitch for the Clearwater Threshers. I like him. We got ourselves a good prospect with this kid.
Never actually seen Pivetta pitch, just work out during ST. Nice guy tho. I collect memorabilia and he's signed a few Team Canada pics for me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2020 22:45:23 GMT -5
186 days normal 2020 season 66 days actual 2020 season multiplier is 186/66 = 2.82 78 / 2.82 = 27.67 do they round up? if not, 27 service days in 2020 is not enough for Pivetta to get a full year to 3.00, but 28 days is enough for him. 66-27=39 39 days in ATS keeps him at 27 days in MLB and below 3.00 service time, end of 2020. 39 days would be September 19th. (Yeah, 27 service days pro-rates to 76 days ... added to 94 is 170. Short of a year which is 172.) I think your math checks out. Good work. That seems like an awfully long time to keep him down there, to me. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2020 22:58:01 GMT -5
Tom Caron @tomcaron · 8m Don't overlook the job Martin Perez did tonight. 7 strong innings - and was able to battle through a tough final inning (2 on, 1 out.). Increased velocity, sharp curveball, good command. 94 pitches, 62 strikes. ERA at 3.45 for the season. . . . I am guessing Bloom is utilizing his call waiting function right about now. If Workman and Hembree + $$ can return a decent starting pitching prospect and a wild card, imagine what Perez + $$ can fetch. Martin also has a reasonable 2021 team option. Seems to me a Forrest Whitley is within reach. YMMV NM about Whitley specifically. Recently he went to the doctor for "arm discomfort, forearm strain". He's not pitching right now. www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/astros/article/Forrest-Whitley-injury-Astros-spotlight-trade-15505993.php |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 23, 2020 0:46:25 GMT -5
Ironically, this trade might have already led to a loss. So, mission accomplished?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 23, 2020 1:10:42 GMT -5
Ironically, this trade might have already led to a loss. So, mission accomplished? Maybe but more likely to the Phillies fans. Workman with a blown save and a loss. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 23, 2020 1:14:51 GMT -5
Ironically, this trade might have already led to a loss. So, mission accomplished? Maybe but more likely to the Phillies fans. Workman with a blown save and a loss. Incredible. No one should bash this trade. Bloom deserves an A+ here for getting anything of value. I’m curious to see what his bigger moves bring. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 23, 2020 2:41:55 GMT -5
Maybe but more likely to the Phillies fans. Workman with a blown save and a loss. Incredible. No one should bash this trade. Bloom deserves an A+ here for getting anything of value. I’m curious to see what his bigger moves bring. I definitely think it deserves an A relative to what realistic expectations should've been. He didn't bring a superstar in but of course he wasn't going to for what he was giving up. Overall though, I love the strategy. Bullpen arms are, on average, less valuable and more replaceable than starters so you give up two bullpen guys who probably won't be here in 2022 for controllable guys with chances to start. Hell, if Pivetta doesn't work out as a starter he has a profile that would probably play sorta well in relief, so it seems like at the worst you traded Hembree for Hembree. I actually think I've liked the strategy for most of his moves. While a lot of the cheap bullpen arms he signed aren't great, I think he did have a couple hits and ultimately the strategy was to find a bunch of buy lows and try to make them stick even if he had a low hit rate, and it worked. I know people didn't love the players the Sox drafted, but he had a creative strategy to workaround not having a second round pick. Not going to go too crazy with the reactions but it definitely bolsters my confidence in Bloom doing what people expected him to be good at coming from the Rays; finding value on the margins in creative ways. |
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 23, 2020 9:37:09 GMT -5
The sox pitching right now for a variety of reasons is not good. The key to being in the WS is strong pitching. The pitching in total with this trade got stronger. We really did not give up much and got lots of potential back. Will the potential become prospect or suspect? I think as Bloom gets settled in with the organization I think the emphasis will be more on pitching. Be interesting to see if Bloom goes after the 2 Cleveland pitchers. His hands were kind of tied with the mookie trade and getting one of their young pitchers../ price Not sure the exact plan with the draft. Lets see what else he has in the bag for getting pitching.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 9:48:19 GMT -5
If they like/need Workman so much, they can resign him anyway. I suspect it doesn’t happen because he won’t be worth the price. And that says to be me getting an upside-starter like Pivetta and a prospect is great... you give up a guy you likely wouldn’t keep even though you could.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 23, 2020 10:42:25 GMT -5
186 days normal 2020 season 66 days actual 2020 season multiplier is 186/66 = 2.82 78 / 2.82 = 27.67 do they round up? if not, 27 service days in 2020 is not enough for Pivetta to get a full year to 3.00, but 28 days is enough for him. 66-27=39 39 days in ATS keeps him at 27 days in MLB and below 3.00 service time, end of 2020. 39 days would be September 19th. (Yeah, 27 service days pro-rates to 76 days ... added to 94 is 170. Short of a year which is 172.) I think your math checks out. Good work. That seems like an awfully long time to keep him down there, to me. Seems that way to me too except, even with Abbott, this isn't going to be a quick process:
The Red Sox ultimately see him as a starter, but have some ideas they’d like to work on with him to help him be more successful in the majors. Pivetta attempted to make some changes in the offseason to his mechanics, but wasn’t able to incorporate them as smoothly once the season began.
“Important conversations with him already,” Roenicke said. “I know he met with (VP of player development) Ben Crockett and they had a nice conversation and it’s getting to know him, talking about what he thinks he needs to progress. We want him as a starter and he wants to start. But Chaim (Bloom) and I talked this morning. We want to get to know him first before we figure out, does he come join us and jump right in the rotation or is it better for him to stay there for a little bit, and work on some things and talk about the different mechanics that have changed over the last two or three years, and trying to figure him out better so when we have him here he’s more able to really succeed and that’s what it’s all about for his growth? You have to do well at this level and we’re trying to figure out what’s best for him.”theathletic.com/2016633/2020/08/23/in-this-red-sox-season-the-only-norm-is-chaos/I knew Jen McCaffrey would come up with valuable insights. |
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Post by juanfatj on Aug 23, 2020 17:15:32 GMT -5
Well, the 3 game winning streak isn't helping their draft position, but Bloom isn't going to blow up long-term plans for that. I almost feel like Rachel Phelps from Major League when I say, "There's still time to turn this around and lose." Hopefully the Sox return to their losing ways again. haha. Maybe they can find a way to play TB and NYY more often. Was a good weekend for sox fans hoping for 1st overall pick. Pirates swept the Brewers, Seattle swept the Rangers, and the Angels are looking to take 2 of 3 from Oakland. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2020 22:58:51 GMT -5
186 days normal 2020 season 66 days actual 2020 season multiplier is 186/66 = 2.82 78 / 2.82 = 27.67 do they round up? if not, 27 service days in 2020 is not enough for Pivetta to get a full year to 3.00, but 28 days is enough for him. 66-27=39 39 days in ATS keeps him at 27 days in MLB and below 3.00 service time, end of 2020. 39 days would be September 19th. (Yeah, 27 service days pro-rates to 76 days ... added to 94 is 170. Short of a year which is 172.) I think your math checks out. Good work. That seems like an awfully long time to keep him down there, to me. Confirmed September 19. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2020 7:47:45 GMT -5
I was just looking at Pivetta's numbers. He only pitched 5.2 innings before they shipped him down. That's not much of a tryout, his mechanics must be awful.
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