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Red Sox reportedly shopping Benintendi
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 14, 2021 22:54:42 GMT -5
First of all, it's a post on a fan blog, not a story by a pro. It does point out the on-field collision (with a player who got suspended for his antics!) which hampered him for an entire month.
They write:
"But if injuries to his lower half continue to limit him this season, the Astros will have to think long and hard about whether they can afford to give him a new contract. They can’t make him the DH as long as Alvarez is on the roster."
As noted, the injury did not "continue to limit him." Once he started playing LF again he was great for his first 9 games, then slowly faded to good as he wore down from getting zero days off.
This is apparently the first "lower half" injury of his career, so the injury bothering him for the rest of the year (even if it had!) would have no relevance at all for next season.
... Brantley had ankle surgery in October of 2017 after it bothered him for the last couple of months of the season and he only played 90 games that year; the quad problem was not "the first "lower half" injury of his career." I guess you're right; people do make mistakes on fan sites. www.mlb.com/news/michael-brantley-has-right-ankle-surgery-c259052306www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/michael-brantley-undergoes-ankle-surgery.htmlThe shoulder surgery in 2016, the ankle surgery in 2017 and the quad injury in 2020, they are a concern. The collision was a freak thing, but did it do damage? I knew if I got that wrong, you'd do the research for me (or simply remember it). Thanks!
It's absolutely true that there are guys who have chronic problems straining sets of muscles.
Brantley sprained his right ankle on 5/7/17 hitting 1B awkwardly, and missed 3 games. He sprained it again on August 7 going after a fly ball that wasn't even hit to him (jump to the 10 second mark). That's so freakish that it makes you wonder whether he came back too early from the May injury and was never 100%. They didn't even see that he needed surgery until after he came back for the last 2 games of the season and the ALDS.
And then three years later he had a leg muscle strain that put him out of action for a month, probably as a result of a collision at 1B.
He'll be 34. This is not a guy with chronic "lower-half" injury problems. You have concern because of his age, but platooning him will help keep him healthy.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 15, 2021 10:25:53 GMT -5
I knew if I got that wrong, you'd do the research for me (or simply remember it). Thanks!
It's absolutely true that there are guys who have chronic problems straining sets of muscles.
Brantley sprained his right ankle on 5/7/17 hitting 1B awkwardly, and missed 3 games. He sprained it again on August 7 going after a fly ball that wasn't even hit to him (jump to the 10 second mark). That's so freakish that it makes you wonder whether he came back too early from the May injury and was never 100%. They didn't even see that he needed surgery until after he came back for the last 2 games of the season and the ALDS.
And then three years later he had a leg muscle strain that put him out of action for a month, probably as a result of a collision at 1B.
He'll be 34. This is not a guy with chronic "lower-half" injury problems. You have concern because of his age, but platooning him will help keep him healthy.
You're welcome. I do not think he has "chronic problems straining sets of muscles" or "chronic "lower-half" injury problems." I think he's an older guy who has had damage to his ankle and shoulder that needed to be fixed by surgery, and that playing in the playoffs when he probably should not have reminds me of Kevin McHale, and he also had that quad injury.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 15, 2021 17:13:07 GMT -5
If I was a sports writer, I never make any kind of comment that Benintendi or anyone else on the Red Sox will be traded by this weekend or any particular time as Bloom will make his moves in his own sweet time.
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 17, 2021 2:12:34 GMT -5
I’ll give bloom this, dude will not deviate. He will slow play to get the absolute maximum value. I love dealing Dave, but this guy is Dave’s polar opposite. Dave would have targeted his guys, paid a little extra pertaining salary or prospects and moved the f on. Just amazing how different these two are.
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Post by manfred on Jan 17, 2021 9:44:40 GMT -5
I’ll give bloom this, dude will not deviate. He will slow play to get the absolute maximum value. I love dealing Dave, but this guy is Dave’s polar opposite. Dave would have targeted his guys, paid a little extra pertaining salary or prospects and moved the f on. Just amazing how different these two are. Ummm.... what if he doesn’t get maximum value? You are reading “hasn’t done anything” in the absolutely most generous way. You don’t know this is all part of some grand scheme. For example: word is out they are shopping Beni hard. If they end up folding on this because no worthwhile trades show up, how does that impact his confidence? What was the point in terms of morale of shopping another young piece in the second consecutive offseason?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 17, 2021 10:00:42 GMT -5
I’ll give bloom this, dude will not deviate. He will slow play to get the absolute maximum value. I love dealing Dave, but this guy is Dave’s polar opposite. Dave would have targeted his guys, paid a little extra pertaining salary or prospects and moved the f on. Just amazing how different these two are. Ummm.... what if he doesn’t get maximum value? You are reading “hasn’t done anything” in the absolutely most generous way. You don’t know this is all part of some grand scheme. For example: word is out they are shopping Beni hard. If they end up folding on this because no worthwhile trades show up, how does that impact his confidence? What was the point in terms of morale of shopping another young piece in the second consecutive offseason? I don't think not effecting a trade would be damaging to Beni's confidence or much of a factor considered. The rumor could impact his sense of allegiance and underscore what all players know...baseball is a business. Whether or not Beni is traded, the team morale impact, if any, would likely be the same. What differs in this case is that there was a leak...purposeful or not. Bloom appears to usually hold his cards tightly.
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 17, 2021 13:48:21 GMT -5
I’ll give bloom this, dude will not deviate. He will slow play to get the absolute maximum value. I love dealing Dave, but this guy is Dave’s polar opposite. Dave would have targeted his guys, paid a little extra pertaining salary or prospects and moved the f on. Just amazing how different these two are. Ummm.... what if he doesn’t get maximum value? You are reading “hasn’t done anything” in the absolutely most generous way. You don’t know this is all part of some grand scheme. For example: word is out they are shopping Beni hard. If they end up folding on this because no worthwhile trades show up, how does that impact his confidence? What was the point in terms of morale of shopping another young piece in the second consecutive offseason? Well hey fair enough we will see. I think my main point was to contrast the GMs style. With last years trades I think chaim generally did pretty good and would get the extra guy thrown in (Seabold). But your right, I’m sorta counting on some other shoe to drop this season and till it does..well..I guess we’ll just have to see:)
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Post by ortiz34 on Jan 19, 2021 14:11:29 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 19, 2021 14:27:04 GMT -5
I wonder why they're trying to make room on the 40 man roster? I'm not a fan of moving Benny this off season at all.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 19, 2021 14:31:55 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Jan 19, 2021 14:33:50 GMT -5
So you trade a young corner outfielder to get a young corner outfielder but want something with it. Let me turn this around: team comes to me and says “I got this young guy, nearing real-money contract. All I want from you is a different, cheaper young guy of comparable quality, plus a young arm that could have real value. Capisce?” I think I might decline.
Add: more abstractly: how often do position players get traded for same-position guys and have it be a mutual win? I always remember Smith for Templeton... a classic that was ultimately a big St. Louis win.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 19, 2021 15:08:50 GMT -5
Since Miami is known to make head scratching trades maybe we can miraculously come away with Bleday.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2021 15:21:54 GMT -5
So you trade a young corner outfielder to get a young corner outfielder but want something with it. Let me turn this around: team comes to me and says “I got this young guy, nearing real-money contract. All I want from you is a different, cheaper young guy of comparable quality, plus a young arm that could have real value. Capisce?” I think I might decline. Throw in the context that it's the Red Sox trying to dump salary on the Marlins.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 19, 2021 16:04:50 GMT -5
So you trade a young corner outfielder to get a young corner outfielder but want something with it. Let me turn this around: team comes to me and says “I got this young guy, nearing real-money contract. All I want from you is a different, cheaper young guy of comparable quality, plus a young arm that could have real value. Capisce?” I think I might decline. Throw in the context that it's the Red Sox trying to dump salary on the Marlins. 2021 is really the 13th month of 2020 after all...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 19, 2021 16:29:17 GMT -5
Throw in the context that it's the Red Sox trying to dump salary on the Marlins. 2021 is really the 13th month of 2020 after all... In more ways than one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 19, 2021 17:22:54 GMT -5
As I suspected, Michael Brantley is a situational stud. He's a perfect fit, too.
Career wRC+ splits with bases empty 107, runners on 129.
By leverage low, medium, high: 113, 119, 126. B-Ref, presumably using different buckets, has OPS of 783, 780, 849.
.278 / .331 / .401 vs. SP the first time .286 / .364 / .426 vs. relievers the first time Typical hitter: + .015 OBP, no change SA. Given the leverage splits, the improvement seems very likely to be against good pitchers rather than mop-up guys.
But here's the best part:
.257 / .325 / .286 (80 PA) career vs. Sox pitching at home .358 / .384 / .550 (125 PA) in Fenway
Wow on that. He's been an average defender the last two years, and his platoon split is big enough that you'd platoon him with Renfroe pretty regularly.
Just repeating this.
Remember, I'm the guy who was rejecting as nonsensical the idea of selling low on Benny, and running all sorts of numbers that demonstrated he would outperform his projection.
And this trade only makes sense because the club with Brantley for Benny for the next two years is just as good as one with a Benny comeback. Brantley is aging and they will have to be vigilant about not letting him play through minor injuries, but he's a well-regarded player who is also hugely underrated. He's a secret stud.
It's likelier than not that you make the team better, and you add a pair of prospects, and it costs you the difference in the two salaries. I believe that works out as a win--if and only if you can get the prospects you want.
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Post by manfred on Jan 19, 2021 17:42:10 GMT -5
As I suspected, Michael Brantley is a situational stud. He's a perfect fit, too.
Career wRC+ splits with bases empty 107, runners on 129.
By leverage low, medium, high: 113, 119, 126. B-Ref, presumably using different buckets, has OPS of 783, 780, 849.
.278 / .331 / .401 vs. SP the first time .286 / .364 / .426 vs. relievers the first time Typical hitter: + .015 OBP, no change SA. Given the leverage splits, the improvement seems very likely to be against good pitchers rather than mop-up guys.
But here's the best part:
.257 / .325 / .286 (80 PA) career vs. Sox pitching at home .358 / .384 / .550 (125 PA) in Fenway
Wow on that. He's been an average defender the last two years, and his platoon split is big enough that you'd platoon him with Renfroe pretty regularly.
Just repeating this.
Remember, I'm the guy who was rejecting as nonsensical the idea of selling low on Benny, and running all sorts of numbers that demonstrated he would outperform his projection.
And this trade only makes sense because the club with Brantley for Benny for the next two years is just as good as one with a Benny comeback. Brantley is aging and they will have to be vigilant about not letting him play through minor injuries, but he's a well-regarded player who is also hugely underrated. He's a secret stud.
It's likelier than not that you make the team better, and you add a pair of prospects, and it costs you the difference in the two salaries. I believe that works out as a win--if and only if you can get the prospects you want.
But a few questions: 1) Don’t you likely lose money the next two years? So trade Beni, get Brantley is a financial negative short run, then leaves an opening in the OF in ~2 years. That will have to be filled either internally (with no obvious options at the moment), by another pricey signing, or by this (or another) trade, leading me to... 2) As I asked above: if they are asking for two prospects back, how likely is it they get Beni’s future replacement AND a valuable arm? Why would a team trade a near-ready OF and another guy for an outfielder the Sox at least see as basically that OFer’s near equal? Or... if it is an OF to dream on, do we really want to trade Beni — a not-so-long ago #1 prospect — for, basically, an older, more expensive guy and a lottery ticket? I’m not entirely disagreeing, but the upside scenario is really threading the needle. Add: in some ways, the two things are actually separate, potentially at least. That is, they could just plug a stiff in in left. Why spend on Brantley for 2021 when they likely won’t be that good anyway? If they trade Beni, why not just have that be one more hoisted white flag in a series from the last few years? I’m not being snarky: Brantley is a short term answer to a problem that may just not matter that much.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Jan 19, 2021 18:50:53 GMT -5
You know I hadn't though of it this way, but if they do trade Benni for a young OF & pitching prospect it only makes sense if they have another free agent lined up in the wings. Possibly Brantley, or possibly Rosario. You'd likely sign either one for 2 to 3 year contract. If the prospect return is appealing enough, in two years you've got a lot of money coming off the books, which allows you the flexibility to play in the free agent market. If it pans out, you've already acquired your eventual replacements in the Benni deal. Benni's money is set with the deal he signed with the sox to avoid arbitration an off season ago, so he's probably an appealing target to a club that's got a tight budget that would rather trade from prospect depth than play checkbook baseball on the free agent market. At any rate, there are a lot of moving parts to this scenario, but if played right it makes total sense. But all the dots have to connect to make sense.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2021 12:12:46 GMT -5
You know I hadn't though of it this way, but if they do trade Benni for a young OF & pitching prospect it only makes sense if they have another free agent lined up in the wings. Possibly Brantley, or possibly Rosario. You'd likely sign either one for 2 to 3 year contract. If the prospect return is appealing enough, in two years you've got a lot of money coming off the books, which allows you the flexibility to play in the free agent market. If it pans out, you've already acquired your eventual replacements in the Benni deal. Benni's money is set with the deal he signed with the sox to avoid arbitration an off season ago, so he's probably an appealing target to a club that's got a tight budget that would rather trade from prospect depth than play checkbook baseball on the free agent market. At any rate, there are a lot of moving parts to this scenario, but if played right it makes total sense. But all the dots have to connect to make sense. If this is the plan then I don't see how it works. They might get this type of trade for Beni if they wait out the market, but they likely can't get their guy in free agency if they wait out the market. Kind of a catch 22. I'm assuming that the acquisition is contingent on the trade, maybe that's not the case but it kind of feels like it. The team must either love Refroe, hate Beni, or both for this to be what's being discussed. I'm envisioning either a Renfroe/Duran/Verdugo or Renfroe/JBJ/Verdugo outfield to start the year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 25, 2021 15:07:30 GMT -5
Note that this trade talk died down, and then Brantley re-signed with the Astros. I'm half serious.
I'm not going to dive deeper into Brantley's amazing splits at Fenway vs. his home park against Sox pitching, but it's possible he's a Fred Lynn / Wade Boggs / Bill Mueller - like fit to the park.
Note that he and JDM (and Beni, if he's not extended) will all be FA at the same time.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 25, 2021 18:41:14 GMT -5
This trade is the last major piece of the off-season, and it will be a solid A for me when it comes to grading the off-season. Eat the salary, throw in Vazquez. Do what you need to do to get the best prospect of the off-season thus far. Maybe at that point you can think about adding a JBJ.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 27, 2021 20:20:01 GMT -5
I still keep thinking the White Sox are as engaged as anyone for Benintendi. Would do anything to see Andrew Vaughn get to Boston. Pipe dream, but man that would be cool to see.
The White Sox don't have much room and Benintendi doesn't make that much money. Eloy Jimenez belongs as a primary DH.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 27, 2021 20:32:08 GMT -5
I have a feeling that the Benintendi reports were a bit overblown. When we hear something will be done by the end of the weekend, and then nothing has happened weeks later, I start to question.
I'm sure they talked with teams about a deal - they've talked with everyone about everything this offseason - but who knows how far talks actually got?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jan 27, 2021 21:20:14 GMT -5
I have a feeling that the Benintendi reports were a bit overblown. When we hear something will be done by the end of the weekend, and then nothing has happened weeks later, I start to question. I'm sure they talked with teams about a deal - they've talked with everyone about everything this offseason - but who knows how far talks actually got? It never made any sense to me. Pennies on the dollar for a guy making "only" 6m moved at absolute lowest point, then he was hurt to boot? Only reason he could have been moved in my thoughts was to clear salary for some OF replacement who would have cost $$ wise right at/over the salary cap and the Sox *HAD* to get back more than some AAAA piece in return and not eat every dime of Benny's deal, which wasn't gonna' happen. Long story short? Reason number 532 JBJ ain't wearing a RS uni..
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 27, 2021 21:24:31 GMT -5
Well I was kinda excited for a trade cuz I love the prospects but hey, not sad to see Benny stick around.
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