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Red Sox FA Target: Corey Kluber
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 7, 2021 20:08:00 GMT -5
I guess I'm different than many on here regarding Kluber. Unless he will sign a deal heavy on incentives with an option for a 2nd year I don't see how he's a good fit. He's just as if not more likely to be cooked than he is to return to his ace form. If hes cooked and they give him a big one year deal thats just money down the drain. If he is an ace again on a one year deal he's going to either cost a ton to bring back or leave.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 8, 2021 2:16:11 GMT -5
Really want Kluber, but I’d be pretty shocked if we don’t sign Odorizzi. Now that it's past midnight, it's five days to Kluber's 30-pitch showcase.
Consensus Projections. This is RA9-WAR per 32 starts, assuming the given figure has been rounded up. Projected relief appearances are counted as 1/5 start.
Name Steam ZiPS Ave
Chris Sale 5.3 6.2 5.8
FA Corey Kluber 3.2 4.5 3.8
Edua. Rodriguez 3.4 3.4 3.4
FA Ja. Odorizzi 2.0 3.2 2.6
Nathan Eovaldi 3.6 1.4 2.5
FA Rich Hill 1.6 3.1 2.4
FA Jo. Quintana 1.9 2.5 2.2
FA J.A. Happ 1.8 2.3 2.1
FA M. Shoemaker 1.8 2.3 2.0
FA Martin Perez 1.3 2.0 1.6
Nick Pivetta 1.3 1.8 1.6
FA Jon Lester 0.7 2.3 1.5
Connor Seabold 1.6 1.4 1.5
FA Taij. Walker 1.3 1.7 1.5
Chris Mazza 1.4 1.2 1.3
Joel Payamps 1.0 1.6 1.3
Tanner Houck 1.5 0.9 1.2
Matt Andriese 1.3 0.7 1.0
Garre. Whitlock 0.6 1.4 1.0
Bryan Mata 0.0 1.4 0.7
Kluber has the best per-start projection of anyone after Bauer. Paxton at 3.1 and Tanaka at 2.8 project ahead of Odorizzi, but there are good reasons why they haven't been linked to the Sox.
If the Happ Fenway effect is real, then he likely gets you the same results as Quintana for less money.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 8, 2021 2:19:01 GMT -5
I guess I'm different than many on here regarding Kluber. Unless he will sign a deal heavy on incentives with an option for a 2nd year I don't see how he's a good fit. He's just as if not more likely to be cooked than he is to return to his ace form. If hes cooked and they give him a big one year deal thats just money down the drain. If he is an ace again on a one year deal he's going to either cost a ton to bring back or leave. Everyone assumes that the contract will be constructed exactly like that: low base and a series of escalators based on IP, plus bonuses for various award performances. It's very standard for a guy coming off of injuries. The escalators can increase the cost of the option year, too. |
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Post by rasimon on Jan 8, 2021 9:25:14 GMT -5
I guess I'm different than many on here regarding Kluber. Unless he will sign a deal heavy on incentives with an option for a 2nd year I don't see how he's a good fit. He's just as if not more likely to be cooked than he is to return to his ace form. If hes cooked and they give him a big one year deal thats just money down the drain. If he is an ace again on a one year deal he's going to either cost a ton to bring back or leave. offer a one guaranteed year @ 15 and then 3 options for the Sox @ 15 per year. If he is done then he is off their books in one year. If he gets back to where he was, then we have a top of the rotation starter for a few years at a bargain price. Something like that. Signing him for just one year doesn't make much sense, because the Sox would be taking a substantial risk that he is cooked and if it turns out he's not cooked then he's a FA after one year - at which point the Sox would need to pay market price. |
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 8, 2021 10:27:51 GMT -5
I guess I'm different than many on here regarding Kluber. Unless he will sign a deal heavy on incentives with an option for a 2nd year I don't see how he's a good fit. He's just as if not more likely to be cooked than he is to return to his ace form. If hes cooked and they give him a big one year deal thats just money down the drain. If he is an ace again on a one year deal he's going to either cost a ton to bring back or leave. Yeah I keep going back and forth on it myself. However if he pans out and you got him on a 1 year deal, you could get a really good return come trade deadline regardless if you're contending or not. That's the way I look at it. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 8, 2021 10:34:42 GMT -5
I guess I'm different than many on here regarding Kluber. Unless he will sign a deal heavy on incentives with an option for a 2nd year I don't see how he's a good fit. He's just as if not more likely to be cooked than he is to return to his ace form. If hes cooked and they give him a big one year deal thats just money down the drain. If he is an ace again on a one year deal he's going to either cost a ton to bring back or leave. offer a one guaranteed year @ 15 and then 3 options for the Sox @ 15 per year. If he is done then he is off their books in one year. If he gets back to where he was, then we have a top of the rotation starter for a few years at a bargain price. Something like that. Signing him for just one year doesn't make much sense, because the Sox would be taking a substantial risk that he is cooked and if it turns out he's not cooked then he's a FA after one year - at which point the Sox would need to pay market price. No thank you on Kluber for 15 million guaranteed. If it was something like 5 million guaranteed with escalating incentives that can reach 15 if he pitches well then maybe I'd be on board. |
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Post by manfred on Jan 8, 2021 17:06:52 GMT -5
Really want Kluber, but I’d be pretty shocked if we don’t sign Odorizzi. Now that it's past midnight, it's five days to Kluber's 30-pitch showcase.
Consensus Projections. This is RA9-WAR per 32 starts, assuming the given figure has been rounded up. Projected relief appearances are counted as 1/5 start.
Name Steam ZiPS Ave
Chris Sale 5.3 6.2 5.8
FA Corey Kluber 3.2 4.5 3.8
Edua. Rodriguez 3.4 3.4 3.4
FA Ja. Odorizzi 2.0 3.2 2.6
Nathan Eovaldi 3.6 1.4 2.5
FA Rich Hill 1.6 3.1 2.4
FA Jo. Quintana 1.9 2.5 2.2
FA J.A. Happ 1.8 2.3 2.1
FA M. Shoemaker 1.8 2.3 2.0
FA Martin Perez 1.3 2.0 1.6
Nick Pivetta 1.3 1.8 1.6
FA Jon Lester 0.7 2.3 1.5
Connor Seabold 1.6 1.4 1.5
FA Taij. Walker 1.3 1.7 1.5
Chris Mazza 1.4 1.2 1.3
Joel Payamps 1.0 1.6 1.3
Tanner Houck 1.5 0.9 1.2
Matt Andriese 1.3 0.7 1.0
Garre. Whitlock 0.6 1.4 1.0
Bryan Mata 0.0 1.4 0.7
Kluber has the best per-start projection of anyone after Bauer. Paxton at 3.1 and Tanaka at 2.8 project ahead of Odorizzi, but there are good reasons why they haven't been linked to the Sox.
If the Happ Fenway effect is real, then he likely gets you the same results as Quintana for less money.
But the “per-32 starts” makes this likely a wish. How many games has Kluber pitched in the last two years? The guy is coming off of major shoulder surgery and is no spring chicken. It is incredibly ambitious to expect 30+ starts. That means he’s not just highly effective but totally injury free. That’s where this strikes me as an issue: *if* he pitched 32 games, it assumes great health, which makes value more likely. But... why would we assume that great health? What is his WAR projection if his shoulder acts up? His elbow nags? He is old? etc. etc. If you sign Kluber, you have to do so hoping for 20-25 starts. If you get more, well, blackjack! I agree with what someone wrote earlier: give him a huge set of incentives, an option year or two (and they can even be vesting with performance incentives). But don’t count on a Klubaissance. Add: the Sale projection is silly , too. Obviously he won’t get 32 starts. But even if we prorate, how do you project a guy returning from Tommy John? He could never recover (doubt it, but not impossible); he could struggle with command; he could take a bit longer to come back and barely pitch etc etc. There are projections of healthy guys based on recent performance, but unless these projectors went to medical school, these are wild guesses. |
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 9, 2021 2:56:44 GMT -5
Now that it's past midnight, it's five days to Kluber's 30-pitch showcase.
Consensus Projections. This is RA9-WAR per 32 starts, assuming the given figure has been rounded up. Projected relief appearances are counted as 1/5 start.
Name Steam ZiPS Ave
Chris Sale 5.3 6.2 5.8
FA Corey Kluber 3.2 4.5 3.8
Edua. Rodriguez 3.4 3.4 3.4
FA Ja. Odorizzi 2.0 3.2 2.6
Nathan Eovaldi 3.6 1.4 2.5
FA Rich Hill 1.6 3.1 2.4
FA Jo. Quintana 1.9 2.5 2.2
FA J.A. Happ 1.8 2.3 2.1
FA M. Shoemaker 1.8 2.3 2.0
FA Martin Perez 1.3 2.0 1.6
Nick Pivetta 1.3 1.8 1.6
FA Jon Lester 0.7 2.3 1.5
Connor Seabold 1.6 1.4 1.5
FA Taij. Walker 1.3 1.7 1.5
Chris Mazza 1.4 1.2 1.3
Joel Payamps 1.0 1.6 1.3
Tanner Houck 1.5 0.9 1.2
Matt Andriese 1.3 0.7 1.0
Garre. Whitlock 0.6 1.4 1.0
Bryan Mata 0.0 1.4 0.7
Kluber has the best per-start projection of anyone after Bauer. Paxton at 3.1 and Tanaka at 2.8 project ahead of Odorizzi, but there are good reasons why they haven't been linked to the Sox.
If the Happ Fenway effect is real, then he likely gets you the same results as Quintana for less money.
But the “per-32 starts” makes this likely a wish. How many games has Kluber pitched in the last two years? The guy is coming off of major shoulder surgery and is no spring chicken. It is incredibly ambitious to expect 30+ starts. That means he’s not just highly effective but totally injury free. That’s where this strikes me as an issue: *if* he pitched 32 games, it assumes great health, which makes value more likely. But... why would we assume that great health? What is his WAR projection if his shoulder acts up? His elbow nags? He is old? etc. etc. If you sign Kluber, you have to do so hoping for 20-25 starts. If you get more, well, blackjack! I agree with what someone wrote earlier: give him a huge set of incentives, an option year or two (and they can even be vesting with performance incentives). But don’t count on a Klubaissance. Add: the Sale projection is silly , too. Obviously he won’t get 32 starts. But even if we prorate, how do you project a guy returning from Tommy John? He could never recover (doubt it, but not impossible); he could struggle with command; he could take a bit longer to come back and barely pitch etc etc. There are projections of healthy guys based on recent performance, but unless these projectors went to medical school, these are wild guesses. OK, so redo the rankings per 20 starts. Get it?
I'm looking first at quality. Reliability is a completely uncorrelated factor, and if you combine the two, you have no idea how good anyone is. (I always adjust to 32 starts because that's 1/5 of a season and the best starters usually have 32 or 33.)
The numbers show that Kluber is so much better than everyone else on a start-by-start basis that he's worth the risk of not getting a full season. The numbers also show, for instance that Rich Hill is a guy who could pitch for you in the post-season if he's still healthy. If you also projected GS and combined the two, you'd miss that completely.
And while Kluber is hard to project given that his command was so off in his abbreviated 2019, you can trust that they've broken down the biomechanics of every pitch he threw that season (as well as when he was at his best) and will be assessing his bullpen on Wednesday through that lens.
The someone you cite in the text that I bolded is me (among others).
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Post by manfred on Jan 9, 2021 9:39:25 GMT -5
But the “per-32 starts” makes this likely a wish. How many games has Kluber pitched in the last two years? The guy is coming off of major shoulder surgery and is no spring chicken. It is incredibly ambitious to expect 30+ starts. That means he’s not just highly effective but totally injury free. That’s where this strikes me as an issue: *if* he pitched 32 games, it assumes great health, which makes value more likely. But... why would we assume that great health? What is his WAR projection if his shoulder acts up? His elbow nags? He is old? etc. etc. If you sign Kluber, you have to do so hoping for 20-25 starts. If you get more, well, blackjack! I agree with what someone wrote earlier: give him a huge set of incentives, an option year or two (and they can even be vesting with performance incentives). But don’t count on a Klubaissance. Add: the Sale projection is silly , too. Obviously he won’t get 32 starts. But even if we prorate, how do you project a guy returning from Tommy John? He could never recover (doubt it, but not impossible); he could struggle with command; he could take a bit longer to come back and barely pitch etc etc. There are projections of healthy guys based on recent performance, but unless these projectors went to medical school, these are wild guesses. OK, so redo the rankings per 20 starts. Get it?
I'm looking first at quality. Reliability is a completely uncorrelated factor, and if you combine the two, you have no idea how good anyone is. (I always adjust to 32 starts because that's 1/5 of a season and the best starters usually have 32 or 33.)
The numbers show that Kluber is so much better than everyone else on a start-by-start basis that he's worth the risk of not getting a full season. The numbers also show, for instance that Rich Hill is a guy who could pitch for you in the post-season if he's still healthy. If you also projected GS and combined the two, you'd miss that completely.
And while Kluber is hard to project given that his command was so off in his abbreviated 2019, you can trust that they've broken down the biomechanics of every pitch he threw that season (as well as when he was at his best) and will be assessing his bullpen on Wednesday through that lens.
The someone you cite in the text that I bolded is me (among others).
But my point is you can’t prorate the 32 game projection down to 20, because that 32 game projection assumes a complete bounce back. He hasn’t even had his showcase! We don’t know that he won’t come out throwing 86-MPH! They are saying the pre-injury Kluber of 3 years ago might look like this. But what I’m saying is not just that making 32 starts is unlikely, but that the health and age that keep him from doing it will likely be visible in his performance when he pitches. If you prorate, it ignores *why* he misses starts. At the same time, it isn’t impossible, of course. But I just don’t get how some mathematicians can say how he projects coming off shoulder surgery before he’s thrown in public. What do they know about his status? |
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Post by manfred on Jan 12, 2021 21:10:46 GMT -5
MLB reports Kluber at 87-89 in bullpens ahead of his showcase.
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 12, 2021 21:14:56 GMT -5
MLB reports Kluber at 87-89 in bullpens ahead of his showcase. If true, that doesn't sound very impressive. Does anyone know how hard he threw before he got hurt? |
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Post by manfred on Jan 12, 2021 21:16:26 GMT -5
MLB reports Kluber at 87-89 in bullpens ahead of his showcase. If true, that doesn't sound very impressive. Does anyone know how hard he threw before he got hurt? In fairness, they say he is normally around here in the offseason. Still, as I’ve said before, you are paying for a hope if he comes out at ~88 on his showcase day. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 12, 2021 21:18:43 GMT -5
MLB reports Kluber at 87-89 in bullpens ahead of his showcase. If true, that doesn't sound very impressive. Does anyone know how hard he threw before he got hurt? 2018 the last year he was an elite pitcher he averaged 92 on his fastball. Hes never been a guy who relied on velocity but 87-89 as you said doesn't sound impressive but hes also not stretched out so it's not too big a deal. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 12, 2021 21:46:25 GMT -5
It’s also mid January, I don’t expect him to be sitting in the 90s
I will refer y’all to Taijuan Walker last year sitting mid-to-high 80s in his offseason workout
I’d be more interested in how he’s commanding everything and if his breaking stuff is still sharp. I don’t expect that to be consistent at this point in time but just some flashes of his old slider would suffice
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 13, 2021 11:52:12 GMT -5
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 13, 2021 11:56:33 GMT -5
What exactly does "Nearly 25 teams showed up" mean?...Does that mean 24 did show up??
Good to hear that Kluber showed well. Not sure if that benefits the Sox or ups his market.......Either way good for Kluber
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 13, 2021 13:48:04 GMT -5
NM. I see the Kluber news is up. Should have looked a few posts up. Looks like there'll be stiff competition for Kluber driving up his price. If he's healthy he might well be worth it.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 13, 2021 15:40:19 GMT -5
What exactly does "Nearly 25 teams showed up" mean?...Does that mean 24 did show up?? Good to hear that Kluber showed well. Not sure if that benefits the Sox or ups his market.......Either way good for Kluber It's strangely worded, but they don't know which teams were there aside from the: Mets, Yankees, Nationals, Red Sox, Rays, Twins, Cubs, Rangers, Marlins, Tigers, Pirates, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Indians. I read it as a guesstimate of 20-25 total. Anthony Swarzak and Steve Cishek were also there, so we don't know which teams were there for Kluber and which were there for the relievers - or both. Bit more info here: www.mlbtraderumors.com/corey-kluber |
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nomar
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Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on Jan 13, 2021 16:08:16 GMT -5
Really want Kluber
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 13, 2021 20:05:32 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Jan 13, 2021 20:55:12 GMT -5
Why not? Sign him up.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 13, 2021 22:02:39 GMT -5
Presuming he doesn't have other wives and families in other states, we have an advantage that no one can match.
I would assume they've already worked out the structure of a contact for the case where he's their top target. It'll be interesting to see how long this takes and how much he gets.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 13, 2021 22:38:33 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Jan 14, 2021 7:28:55 GMT -5
They waited too long on him, by all indications he had a good showing. That means his numbers and years just went up all while he has more interest. Bloom's been operating under the assumption of not overpaying for his free agents now your in a position that you would have to beat other offers for his services. I don't like the chances of the red sox signing him.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 14, 2021 8:15:19 GMT -5
They waited too long on him, by all indications he had a good showing. That means his numbers and years just went up all while he has more interest. Bloom's been operating under the assumption of not overpaying for his free agents now your in a position that you would have to beat other offers for his services. I don't like the chances of the red sox signing him. What? Kluber was never going to sign without the chance to show what he has to offer if he still feels he has something left in the tank. He wasn't taking 6 million right away in the off-season when he feels healthy and can prove it. I get being critical, but this is borderline nonsense. Blame Bloom for something else (I don't know what we can blame on him yet, maybe last year's depth that he wasn't entirely responsible for?) |
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