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Imagining a Bogaerts Extension
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Post by incandenza on Jun 11, 2021 10:13:15 GMT -5
Lindor got $32M/year plus a $21M bonus for 10 years starting with his age 29 season. So call it $34.1M/year, same difference. Arenado (a 3B but excellent defensively so let's look at him too): age 29-33: $35M Age 34: $32M Age 35: $27M Tatis's deal is structured a bit weirdly, pushing most of the money into later years. Ignoring the minimum/arb years they bought out and starting with 2025 (Keep in mind $10M bonus): Age 27-28: $20M Age 29-30: $25M Age 31-36: $36M So for the FA years it's somewhere between 10/$316M and 10/$326M, depending on how you count the bonus. But they also clearly got a discount for giving him 14 years (they also got a pretty enormous potential discount on his arb years considering what Mookie got). EDIT: Adding Rendon. Good call incandenza. Age 30: $25.5M Age 31: $27.5M Age 32: $36M Age 33-36: $38M I think something fair for Bogaerts is going to look something like this, roughly (although you probably structure it like Tatis and Rendon and push more of the money into later years, since AAV is all that really matters): Age 30-34: $35M Age 35-36: $30M Age 37-38: $25M So does 9/$285M do it? Doesn't seem terribly unreasonable, and I can't imagine him taking a ton less than that. Can you get him to take 8 years without adding too much AAV? 8/$270? If I'm Bogaerts, I'm pointing to the Lindor deal and how he got $34M/year into his age 39 season and asking for similar. So he probably starts at like 10/350 and comes down. If the Red Sox start at 8/270, do they meet at something like a 9/290 number? Again, we'll see what the new CBA does and what Story, Baez, and Correa (and to a lesser degree the older Crawford, who's having the season of his life) get this offseason. Xander's got a great argument he should get more than Baez and Correa, and Story's probably a good comp. Until we know those numbers and the CBA, this is all speculative. EDIT2: incandenza, I disagree that guys around 30 tend to get 7-year deals. Other than Rendon, the hitters that age are mostly getting 10. Pitchers just can't be compared because of the injury risk. Haha, I feel like you and I are negotiating for Bogaerts and the Red Sox respectively, somehow, and maybe are destined to meet in the middle?
But so Lindor's deal starts at age 28 and goes through his age 37 season, and I don't mean to harp on the details of age so much, but it seems like the single most important factor for these contracts. Dropping two peak years at the beginning of the contract to make the Lindor comp really makes a huge difference.
As for 10-year contracts... which 30-year-old hitters are getting those? I listed all contracts of 10+ years above, and the few 30-year-olds on that list all signed around 2012-2014. I don't think it's a coincidence that there's nothing more recent than that - teams wised up to the danger of being on the hook for $25 million/year or whatever to guys who are mostly around replacement level in their late 30s.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 11, 2021 10:26:02 GMT -5
Any contract extension that hinders the Sox's chances of offering Juan Soto the massive contract he deserves when he'll hit free agency is a no go for me. Juan Soto's rightful place is Fenway's LF like number 9 before him. What makes this a great point, even if in jest to a degree, is the importance of hitting it big when you do go out and break the bank on a FA. An even better question for analysis is the frequency of winning big, medium, small or not at all when doing so. It is an interesting list of players between just the Sox and Yankees. Manny, Price, Damon, Ellsbury, Sale, Panda, Giancarlo etc. etc. Highlights how important and hard it is to accurately spend that money. Which is another reason why the Mookie deal is tough to take, at the time it seemed like he was one you could count on being worth it, now who knows. Being a successful MLB GM isn't easy, there will be some swings and misses.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 11, 2021 10:30:36 GMT -5
The AAV on the next X contract will be over 30mill a year at a minimum, of that you can be sure. That is, conservatively, the market cost for a guy with his talent and leadership. It may not be the Red Sox, but someone will.
The one factor that the Sox have going is he has earned over 53 million already after this year. That may factor in on his salary request.
The starting point, however is probably 10 yrs at 300 millions. We can make it easier on him if we finally give him what he deserves as a fan base this year, an AS game start. You boys voting ?? He wants that and the fan base has failed him on voting thus far.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 11, 2021 10:33:42 GMT -5
Any contract extension that hinders the Sox's chances of offering Juan Soto the massive contract he deserves when he'll hit free agency is a no go for me. Juan Soto's rightful place is Fenway's LF like number 9 before him. What makes this a great point, even if in jest to a degree, is the importance of hitting it big when you do go out and break the bank on a FA. An even better question for analysis is the frequency of winning big, medium, small or not at all when doing so. It is an interesting list of players between just the Sox and Yankees. Manny, Price, Damon, Ellsbury, Sale, Panda, Giancarlo etc. etc. Highlights how important and hard it is to accurately spend that money. Which is another reason why the Mookie deal is tough to take, at the time it seemed like he was one you could count on being worth it, now who knows. Being a successful MLB GM isn't easy, there will be some swings and misses. You look at somebody with the talent level of Mookie or somebody who's premier in their position, odds are you're going to have a terrible free agent contract. So few of them work out and it's pretty much because of the length more than the annual $, but even that is getting crazy as it eats up more of the payroll and puts a lot of pressure on kids sometimes not really ready, to produce. If you walk away from Betts, or X, or Devers or insert star's name in free agency, odds are in your favor, even if the whole world is mad at you.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 11, 2021 10:46:46 GMT -5
So true but you still have to do it at least once in a while to win right. Truth is it is more about the cap and penalties unless you are a small market team which brings us to the difficulties of a good CBA, so many factors to consider.
Which brings me to a new factor being talked about by players who have felt this way for a while based on what I have read. MLB changing the ball to suit the owners desire to suppress pitching or hitting depending on the FA class. This is going to be a very difficult negotiation.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 11, 2021 10:47:18 GMT -5
I have Bogaerts being worth 24 WAR over the first 7 years of a potential extension, without much value coming beyond those years.
At $9 million per WAR, that's 7 years/216 million. You need to account for salary inflation though. At 5%, you get to 7/251. At 10%, you get to 7/292. If you make it a 10 year deal, you're at 10/271 for 5% and 10/344 for 10%, even assuming the extra three years are worthless.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 11, 2021 11:25:45 GMT -5
Sox are kind of in a damned if they do damned if they don't situation with xandy. Do I want to lose him to free agency? Heck no he's one of my favorites ever and to me a Sox legend. Do I want to pay him 8+ years at 35ish mil that it probably will take? I'm not so sure on that one. Time will tell I guess.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 11, 2021 15:28:09 GMT -5
Couldn’t find a thread specifically for contract extensions. I specifically want to discuss Xander but maybe this would be a good place for additional contract extension discussions (Barnes, ERod, Devers, etc.) as well. Lindor got 10 / $34M AAV. Xander will be 2 years older at the time his next deal starts than Lindor was at the start of his new deal. I think Lindor was an overpay but also think Xander is better than Lindor so maybe those two factors offset each other. Regardless, I think taking the Lindor AAV and chopping off some years is probably a good rough estimate of where Xander’s deal could land. I’d suggest something around the 6 year / $200M range. Roughly the same AAV as Lindor, 4 less years. Who says no to this? This doesn’t come close to what he will accept. It will be offered. But we ARE talking about Scott boras here. The only way boras isn’t asking for him to be the highest paid shortstop is if a) he demands a contract with Red Sox. B). A strike or lockout sets salaries back a few years. C). He has a horrible injury. D). Boras isn’t his agent come opt out time. Xander is going to be paid. A LOT
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 11, 2021 15:51:03 GMT -5
Couldn’t find a thread specifically for contract extensions. I specifically want to discuss Xander but maybe this would be a good place for additional contract extension discussions (Barnes, ERod, Devers, etc.) as well. Lindor got 10 / $34M AAV. Xander will be 2 years older at the time his next deal starts than Lindor was at the start of his new deal. I think Lindor was an overpay but also think Xander is better than Lindor so maybe those two factors offset each other. Regardless, I think taking the Lindor AAV and chopping off some years is probably a good rough estimate of where Xander’s deal could land. I’d suggest something around the 6 year / $200M range. Roughly the same AAV as Lindor, 4 less years. Who says no to this? This doesn’t come close to what he will accept. It will be offered. But we ARE talking about Scott boras here. The only way boras isn’t asking for him to be the highest paid shortstop is if a) he demands a contract with Red Sox. B). A strike or lockout sets salaries back a few years. C). He has a horrible injury. D). Boras isn’t his agent come opt out time. Xander is going to be paid. A LOT I’ll let him walk for the 10/340 people are throwing around
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 11, 2021 18:19:13 GMT -5
What's a shame with Xander is his opt out clause. I would have much rather overpaid him to have his 27-33 years under contract with no opt out than go cheap, allow him to opt out, and then force our hand with his 30-38 years.
It was always talked about how great the contract was for the team, but Xander's going to get the last laugh.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 25, 2021 22:21:21 GMT -5
I just posted this in the MFY game thread but this is probably a more appropriate place for it:
X isn't worth as much as a 3B and Devers isn't worth as much as a DH. If the RS see them that way, it's going to affect the offers they make. And if X and Devers are looking to max out, they're not going to accept those offers.
My guess is that they sign one of the two, at most. And if they're both looking to max out, I hope they don't sign either. We see time after time how those contracts end up. Miggy. Pujols. Ellsbury. Panda (and his contract wasn't even that long). Price. Crawford. Beckett. Heyward. Chris Davis. Stanton. And that's just off the top of my feeble head.
Make deals that make BB and economic sense. Be cold and bloodless.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 25, 2021 22:37:17 GMT -5
I just posted this in the MFY game thread but this is probably a more appropriate place for it: X isn't worth as much as a 3B and Devers isn't worth as much as a DH. If the RS see them that way, it's going to affect the offers they make. And if X and Devers are looking to max out, they're not going to accept those offers. My guess is that they sign one of the two, at most. And if they're both looking to max out, I hope they don't sign either. We see time after time how those contracts end up. Miggy. Pujols. Ellsbury. Panda (and his contract wasn't even that long). Price. Crawford. Beckett. Heyward. Chris Davis. Stanton. And that's just off the top of my feeble head. Make deals that make BB and economic sense. Be cold and bloodless. I do not know if any team sees X as a long term SS. Every team has the defensive metrics and knows that he probably has 2 or 3 seasons at most left as a viable defensive SS. And perhaps that could affect the size of the offers which would be good for the Red Sox.
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Post by unitspin on Jun 26, 2021 6:48:27 GMT -5
In the past I was under the assumption that we were either getting mookie or xander, no way to keep both. Think in 2018 I laughed at paying xander 20 a year, I was so wrong, probably my worse take on this board. Xander took the pay cut to stay at 20 yr now it's his time and he deserves the money. If they do not pay him good luck filling that void, he's our jeter. Id hope they start at 300@ 10 yrs. But who knows what bloom will do. I'll tell ya if xander is gone JD is gone too. Then you set the precedent that all your talent will be looking at the door when they are ready to hit free agency.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 26, 2021 7:41:07 GMT -5
In the past I was under the assumption that we were either getting mookie or xander, no way to keep both. Think in 2018 I laughed at paying xander 20 a year, I was so wrong, probably my worse take on this board. Xander took the pay cut to stay at 20 yr now it's his time and he deserves the money. If they do not pay him good luck filling that void, he's our jeter. Id hope they start at 300@ 10 yrs. But who knows what bloom will do. I'll tell ya if xander is gone JD is gone too. Then you set the precedent that all your talent will be looking at the door when they are ready to hit free agency. I could see Bloom not wanting to pay bucks for a DH like JD even tho that bat is going to be tough to replace but I'm not sure I agree that if Xander is gone so is JD and vice versa?
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jun 26, 2021 12:41:47 GMT -5
I just posted this in the MFY game thread but this is probably a more appropriate place for it: X isn't worth as much as a 3B and Devers isn't worth as much as a DH. If the RS see them that way, it's going to affect the offers they make. And if X and Devers are looking to max out, they're not going to accept those offers. My guess is that they sign one of the two, at most. And if they're both looking to max out, I hope they don't sign either. We see time after time how those contracts end up. Miggy. Pujols. Ellsbury. Panda (and his contract wasn't even that long). Price. Crawford. Beckett. Heyward. Chris Davis. Stanton. And that's just off the top of my feeble head. Make deals that make BB and economic sense. Be cold and bloodless. I do not know if any team sees X as a long term SS. Every team has the defensive metrics and knows that he probably has 2 or 3 seasons at most left as a viable defensive SS.And perhaps that could affect the size of the offers which would be good for the Red Sox. My eyes suggest the clock on that claim started about 4 years ago. I think X would make a fine first baseman.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,410
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Post by radiohix on Jun 29, 2021 12:07:25 GMT -5
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 27, 2021 16:27:15 GMT -5
docs.google.com/document/d/1xTx2ywAY0Bx4wyYl8-DEv0pbNnlbxU7n_uxdHi6HS40/previewBumping this thread to point out a piece by the Red Sox Stats guy breaking down the X situation. I think he nails it pretty well. Among his points: - X has a no-trade clause, which gives him/Boras a lot of leverage. I wasn't aware of this and wasn't happy to read it. - BUT the RS might be able to take back some leverage by saying they'll move him off SS in 2022. He'd have less value in FA as a 2B. - Metrics show he's a Jeter level of bad defensively. His D probably contributes to the gap between the ERAs and FIPs of RS P's. - Because he'll be 30 after the '22 season, he won't get the $$$ and years that Lindor got or that Correa and Seager will get. RS Stats guy says he would offer six years/$180M. If he refuses, the RS should play the card about moving him to another position in '22, RS Stats guy says. My thoughts: First, I was struck by the ginormous gap between what RS Stats guy would offer and some of the estimates thrown around in this thread. Even the $180 million/6 years he suggests gives me heartburn. X's offensive production is likely to begin to decline during the first half of a multi-year contract. That decline will coincide at some point with a change to a position to the left of SS on the defensive spectrum. X put up an OPS+ of 127 in 2021 - real nice for a SS. But assuming a position change and that his bat declines like we can reasonably expect, his value will deteriorate. A 115 OPS+, defensively challenged 2B or LF is simply not an elite player and not a guy I would want to carry for super-sized money and years. I'd tweak the offer Red Sox Stats guy suggests to reduce the AAV hit. I'd go to $175M over seven years for an AAV of $25M, take it or leave it. I'd also offer opt outs after the second and third years. If X accepts that contract (which is the absolute high end of where I would go) and then exercises one of the opt outs, you have to have the discipline not to chase him again.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 27, 2021 23:10:50 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 28, 2021 1:30:14 GMT -5
If they don't move him off of SS in 2022, for at least 80 games, they're shooting themselves in the foot. I don't think Chaim was hired to shoot the team in the foot.
Does that diminish Bogie's value on the open market? Yes and no. Yes, because other teams aren't going to want to pay SS money for a 2B or 3B. And no, because other teams can already see that he's not a top-tier defensive SS and no one would give him Lindor money in 2023 even if the Red Sox (inexplicably IMO) left him at SS.
The reason you go long for him if you're the Red Sox is because he's a great leader, particularly for the Caribbean kids (and there will always be more of those), a great face for the franchise, and he should be able to have a long, productive career after he moves off of SS. I think something in the 10/$250m range is more than he'd get on the open market but if there's a guy to make a Red Sox for life, Xander is the guy.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 28, 2021 8:28:58 GMT -5
If they don't move him off of SS in 2022, for at least 80 games, they're shooting themselves in the foot. I don't think Chaim was hired to shoot the team in the foot. Does that diminish Bogie's value on the open market? Yes and no. Yes, because other teams aren't going to want to pay SS money for a 2B or 3B. And no, because other teams can already see that he's not a top-tier defensive SS and no one would give him Lindor money in 2023 even if the Red Sox (inexplicably IMO) left him at SS. The reason you go long for him if you're the Red Sox is because he's a great leader, particularly for the Caribbean kids (and there will always be more of those), a great face for the franchise, and he should be able to have a long, productive career after he moves off of SS. I think something in the 10/$250m range is more than he'd get on the open market but if there's a guy to make a Red Sox for life, Xander is the guy. Who do they have, or are willing to pay for that can move to SS for half the season? It'd have to be some Xander respects for sure.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 28, 2021 9:06:35 GMT -5
If they don't move him off of SS in 2022, for at least 80 games, they're shooting themselves in the foot. I don't think Chaim was hired to shoot the team in the foot. Does that diminish Bogie's value on the open market? Yes and no. Yes, because other teams aren't going to want to pay SS money for a 2B or 3B. And no, because other teams can already see that he's not a top-tier defensive SS and no one would give him Lindor money in 2023 even if the Red Sox (inexplicably IMO) left him at SS. The reason you go long for him if you're the Red Sox is because he's a great leader, particularly for the Caribbean kids (and there will always be more of those), a great face for the franchise, and he should be able to have a long, productive career after he moves off of SS. I think something in the 10/$250m range is more than he'd get on the open market but if there's a guy to make a Red Sox for life, Xander is the guy. This team is better with Bogaerts at SS, Devers at 3B and Dalbec/Shwarber/(Casas?) at 1B than it is with Iglesias at SS, Bogaerts at 3B and Devers at 1B. I love the spark that iglesias provided this year, but you can't count on him to be more than an average everyday player over the course of a season, and I think even that projection requires a whole lot of optimism. It's fair to be concerned about the Bogaerts' and Devers' defense long-term, but they're both currently well above average players at those positions, even with poor defense.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 28, 2021 15:31:53 GMT -5
If the comps are Lindur,Rendon and Arenado that isn't good right? Lindor just had his worst year ever, Rendon has given his team 2.2 and 0 bwar the last two years and Arenado just had his lowest bwar total since 2014 at age 30.
I love Xander, yet why did he blow his chance at mega money to stay with the Red Sox and now he wants it? Yet now it starts with age 30, not age 27. Yet he can't likely stay at SS, the position that gives him the most value. He's never had a season as good as ones Lindur, Rendon and Arenado have because his D is below all three of those guys.
I want to resign him, yet these numbers being throw around are crazy unless a move to 2B makes him an above average defender.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 28, 2021 21:14:33 GMT -5
If they don't move him off of SS in 2022, for at least 80 games, they're shooting themselves in the foot. I don't think Chaim was hired to shoot the team in the foot. Does that diminish Bogie's value on the open market? Yes and no. Yes, because other teams aren't going to want to pay SS money for a 2B or 3B. And no, because other teams can already see that he's not a top-tier defensive SS and no one would give him Lindor money in 2023 even if the Red Sox (inexplicably IMO) left him at SS. The reason you go long for him if you're the Red Sox is because he's a great leader, particularly for the Caribbean kids (and there will always be more of those), a great face for the franchise, and he should be able to have a long, productive career after he moves off of SS. I think something in the 10/$250m range is more than he'd get on the open market but if there's a guy to make a Red Sox for life, Xander is the guy. Who do they have, or are willing to pay for that can move to SS for half the season? It'd have to be some Xander respects for sure. I'm thinking Iglesias, for that very reason. Sits vs. tough RHP.
Inexpensive, already integrated into the team, almost certainly wants to come back, and a good chance to rediscover his magic glove, which is why you want him there in the first place (batting 8th or 9th). Granted, it's not a guarantee that his defense comes back but it's not like you're hoping for something you've never seen before. A one-year deal with a club option for a second. If it doesn't work out, you default to what you had this year or maybe Fitzy or Arauz emerges (although the latter has already had plenty of chances). I'm guessing Chaim signs another Motter-like flyer, as well.
Best-case scenario is your up-the-middle defense goes from suspect to borderline elite (Arroyo hasn't made an error since 2019) and makes up for what you lose with Iggy's bat (although I suppose best-case is Iggy keeps up what he did at the plate in Boston along with the magic glove).
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Post by fanofredsox on Nov 19, 2021 12:13:26 GMT -5
Is it possible to by out Bogaerts opt out? He is signed through '26, essentially a 5 year $100m contract paying him $20m each year, but he can opt out after '22 and walk away from 4 years $80m and become a free agent. Can the Red Sox re do his contract & pay him more, say, 5 years $125m and eliminate the opt out but still let him become a free agent after '26? Would it have to be more? Could it be less? Is this realistic or would his agent just hang up? Is it worth trying?
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2021 12:18:53 GMT -5
Is it possible to by out Bogaerts opt out? He is signed through '26, essentially a 5 year $100m contract paying him $20m each year, but he can opt out after '22 and walk away from 4 years $80m and become a free agent. Can the Red Sox re do his contract & pay him more, say, 5 years $125m and eliminate the opt out but still let him become a free agent after '26? Would it have to be more? Could it be less? Is this realistic or would his agent just hang up? Is it worth trying? It’s an interesting thought, but he and his agent would think of it less as “buying out an opt out” and more “negotiating an extension,” and, while it’s possible that they agree on an extension before he reaches free agency, that’s not likely for the usual reasons.
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