Imagining a Bogaerts Extension

Considering that Lindor got 10/341, there's no way that 10/300 is enough for Bogaerts. He'd be nuts to leave $50+M on the table like that.

I think Xander laughs at the offer and is offended.

Lindor's deal starts next year, his age 28 season. Bogaerts' will start in his age 29 season in 2023. There's no reason for him to take a nearly-$100M haircut from what Lindor got.

10/340 is the likely starting point for negotiations on a Bogaerts deal. That's the reality of it.

And it's not just Lindor. Tatis got a 14/240 deal that pays $36M/year in the free agent-years portion. Nolan Arenado's deal was essentially 7/234 that starts at age 31. And keep in mind next year's SS class (Baez, Correa, Crawford, Story) will also have an impact in providing data points, plus there will be a new CBA. I'm sure Bogaerts will sit back and see what the market does another year removed from COVID, with teams getting those precious gate receipts back in the coffers.

I think it winds up looking like 10/350. Maybe you hope to talk him down to like, 9/306 or 315? That latter range is a best case scenario, I think.

Spreadsheets on extension signing day had 2022 Lindor as a 5 to 5.5 WAR player.

Current spreadsheets have 2023 Bogaerts as a 4 to 4.5 WAR player.

Pay the man. 

Any thoughts on what a JDM deal looks like? 4 yrs at $20 per? 3 at $25? We’ll be in a much better position to extend guys with the depth that’s coming up. I don’t know if I go past 7 years for Xander.

If you're right I can't see Bloom offering a contract like that.

They refused to give a contract much higher than 10 years $300 million for Mookie who was going to be 28 when the contract started.

With Bogaerts, he'd actually be in his age 30 season come 2023 (not 29) and whoever gets him is getting a guy who's going to spend the overwhelming majority of that time as a 3b rather than a SS. I'd think whoever signs him knows this. That's why I think it won't be as large as 10/350 as you have it. But more like 8/250 or thereabouts.

I'm not sure Bloom goes there and for that long, whether it's the 8 you have or the 6 I have.

I was thinking about this - after Bloom traded Mookie, there's just nobody on that roster that I think he feels that he MUST sign to a long-term expensive contract. I'm not trying to say that the Sox won't spend toward $200 million for their payroll. I just don't think Bloom is inclined to give that large a contract to a 3b who's already about to hit his age 30 season, nor do I think he's willing to give Devers all that money if he feels Devers is a future DH for a large extent of that contract.

I can see the Sox giving large annual deals for shorter term contracts or a lot of mid range type shorter deals. I would think he'd want flexibility or the ability to tie up players beyond their original 6 years of service time by two years or so.

If Xander is willing to take a 6 year deal for about $200 million, I think that Bloom would do that, but that's a lot to leave on the table, even if my 8 year $250 million thought is near accurate and if it's yours, there's no way in hell X agrees to that, and I don't think Bloom would offer my thought or yours to X.

Age matters, along with defense

 Something along those lines is what I am hoping for but I'm not sure that 25 is enough. As you said it depends on the market and the market is going up. As I pointed out 3/300 is established and Lindor got more as Chris pointed out. I think the new CBA will only increase the market moving forward as the union is going to fight the penalties that have curtailed spending since the last CBA. 30 per for the rest of his deal might be what it takes and that might even be a deal in the short run. He does seem like a guy who will age well but at what position, LF, doesn't really matter as long as his bat produces in his mid 30's.

$5M more than what he's getting? He's only making $20M/yr. There's no chance that 4/$100 does it. He could get 4/$120 from like half the league without blinking. And the point is that he's going to want years - at age 30 this is the last chance for him to get a big contract. You've gotta think he wants at least 8 years, right?

And I'm going to pull all this into the extension thread and just call it a Bogaerts extension thread at this point.

Here are all the 10+ year contracts signed this century, with player ages at the time they went into effect:

Tatis (22): 14/340
Betts (28): 12/365
Harper (26): 13/330
Trout (29): 10/360
Machado (26): 10/300
Stanton (25): 13/325
Cano (31): 10/228
Votto (30): 10/225
Pujols (32): 10/240
Rodriguez (32): 10/275
Rodriguez (25): 10/252
Jeter (27): 10/189

Among the biggest contracts there's also:

Cole (29): 9/324
Rendon (30): 7/245
Strasburg (31): 7/245
Price (30): 7/217
Greinke (32): 6/206

Rendon might be the best comp? Guys around 30 seem to get ~7 year deals (makes sense!). Rendon has a little better track record than Bogaerts so $35 million/year might be higher than what he could expect. In any event, $300 million contracts are really rarefied air that are mostly given to guys who are in their mid-20s. Trout, Betts, and Cole were in their late 20s but that's still younger than Bogaerts will be, and as good as he is he's really not on their level.

Lindor got $32M/year plus a $21M bonus for 10 years starting with his age 29 season. So call it $34.1M/year, same difference.

Arenado (a 3B but excellent defensively so let's look at him too):
age 29-33: $35M
Age 34: $32M
Age 35: $27M

Tatis's deal is structured a bit weirdly, pushing most of the money into later years. Ignoring the minimum/arb years they bought out and starting with 2025 (Keep in mind $10M bonus):
Age 27-28: $20M
Age 29-30: $25M
Age 31-36: $36M
So for the FA years it's somewhere between 10/$316M and 10/$326M, depending on how you count the bonus. But they also clearly got a discount for giving him 14 years (they also got a pretty enormous potential discount on his arb years considering what Mookie got).

EDIT: Adding Rendon. Good call incandenza.
Age 30: $25.5M
Age 31: $27.5M
Age 32: $36M
Age 33-36: $38M

I think something fair for Bogaerts is going to look something like this, roughly (although you probably structure it like Tatis and Rendon and push more of the money into later years, since AAV is all that really matters):

Age 30-34: $35M
Age 35-36: $30M
Age 37-38: $25M

So does 9/$285M do it? Doesn't seem terribly unreasonable, and I can't imagine him taking a ton less than that. Can you get him to take 8 years without adding too much AAV? 8/$270?

If I'm Bogaerts, I'm pointing to the Lindor deal and how he got $34M/year into his age 39 season and asking for similar. So he probably starts at like 10/350 and comes down. If the Red Sox start at 8/270, do they meet at something like a 9/290 number?

Again, we'll see what the new CBA does and what Story, Baez, and Correa (and to a lesser degree the older Crawford, who's having the season of his life) get this offseason. Xander's got a great argument he should get more than Baez and Correa, and Story's probably a good comp. Until we know those numbers and the CBA, this is all speculative.

EDIT2: incandenza, I disagree that guys around 30 tend to get 7-year deals. Other than Rendon, the hitters that age are mostly getting 10. Pitchers just can't be compared because of the injury risk.