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Imagining a Bogaerts Extension
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 19, 2021 12:30:09 GMT -5
Is it possible to by out Bogaerts opt out? He is signed through '26, essentially a 5 year $100m contract paying him $20m each year, but he can opt out after '22 and walk away from 4 years $80m and become a free agent. Can the Red Sox re do his contract & pay him more, say, 5 years $125m and eliminate the opt out but still let him become a free agent after '26? Would it have to be more? Could it be less? Is this realistic or would his agent just hang up? Is it worth trying? i think if you are gonna do something like that, just rip it up totally and renegotiate for the long term deal. The Sox don't want to do that for 21 and 22 because those years will be more expensive, but if they want him here long term, they might find a workable deal. I am kind of certain that if he opts out, which sounds like a given, he is gone. I really don't have any confidence that Bloom would negotiate any Lindor like contract.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 12:34:31 GMT -5
Is it possible to by out Bogaerts opt out? He is signed through '26, essentially a 5 year $100m contract paying him $20m each year, but he can opt out after '22 and walk away from 4 years $80m and become a free agent. Can the Red Sox re do his contract & pay him more, say, 5 years $125m and eliminate the opt out but still let him become a free agent after '26? Would it have to be more? Could it be less? Is this realistic or would his agent just hang up? Is it worth trying? i think if you are gonna do something like that, just rip it up totally and renegotiate for the long term deal. The Sox don't want to do that for 21 and 22 because those years will be more expensive, but if they want him here long term, they might find a workable deal. I am kind of certain that if he opts out, which sounds like a given, he is gone. I really don't have any confidence that Bloom would negotiate any Lindor like contract. This could make sense in a few ways. Lets X know the Sox care about him being here as much as he wants to stay, good for the relationship and him being a leader. Which I actually don't think that is a strength of his. Also spread the AAV out over an extra season.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 26, 2022 22:08:18 GMT -5
Time to bump this with the word out today the Sox aren’t trading him, must mean they plan to seriously negotiate with him. If not, … never mind, better not come to that. Anyway, I think this is a classic head vs heart dilemma. I can’t imagine a Sox fan whose heart doesn’t want to resign him, but my head is telling me it’s got to be a very disciplined extension. Somebody somewhere said today he wants $200m, I wouldn’t feel great about the Sox going there. Additionally, I can’t do this deal without knowing a position change happens sooner rather than later, whether it’s second or left. I think the 6 for 170ish range is where I’m at. If they did that and assuming they sign Devers too, they’ll be back to having over $100m committed to 4 guys, which they worked so hard to get out of the last three years (although Story is hardly a bad deal, and Sale only has two years left, and they’ve got cheap talent on the way, which they haven’t had much of lately). If they don’t deal him, they should at least start negotiations the last couple months of the season IMO. Not an envious position for the FO, I’m sure a lot of those guys have known him for half his life basically.
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Post by keninten on Jul 26, 2022 23:34:46 GMT -5
Is it a bad idea for the Sox to keep X and give him the QO? Let the market dictate what he gets. He could still give the Sox a hometown discount and stay if we are close to other offers. If a team wants to go too long or too much money, it would be easy to let him walk. Just thinking this would be the best for both sides. Because he`s one of the faces of the franchise I wouldn`t want to trade him and think the comp pick is fine. I like the way Bloom has run the draft. Everyone else trade away if you can get a decent return.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jul 27, 2022 6:52:36 GMT -5
I can see letting Bogaerts go. But my suggestion is still that they offer him the Trevor Story deal with the options going this way and that, but for 30M instead of 23. It's 5 years but could be 4 or 6.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 27, 2022 8:01:44 GMT -5
Is it a bad idea for the Sox to keep X and give him the QO? Let the market dictate what he gets. He could still give the Sox a hometown discount and stay if we are close to other offers. If a team wants to go too long or too much money, it would be easy to let him walk. Just thinking this would be the best for both sides. Because he`s one of the faces of the franchise I wouldn`t want to trade him and think the comp pick is fine. I like the way Bloom has run the draft. Everyone else trade away if you can get a decent return. I don't hate this at all, especially if the Sox get under the CBT. Like, if he could net some ludicrous trade deadline haul and waive his no trade for it, that's one thing. If not, and especially if we do want to make a legit run at bringing him back, the QO would theoretically give us another advantage in negotiations. Other teams would have to give up a pick to sign him, but we wouldn't. And, worst case, someone else swoops in with a huge overpay and we still get a (hopefully second round) pick back.
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Post by theburn on Jul 27, 2022 8:26:08 GMT -5
Bogaerts is gone after this season. I'm convinced there is no way Henry/Bloom are offering him more than he will get on the free market.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 27, 2022 8:51:09 GMT -5
If I had to put a wager on Red Sox vs the field for where Xander is playing opening day, I'd probably put the money down on the field. However I'm not of the mindset yet that it is a foregone conclusion and set in stone. If Xander is willing to accept a six year deal to stay in Boston I believe a deal can be had that would be good for both sides. I do think Henry and the FO will not extend past 6 guaranteed years however. If a team offers 7+ he is probably a goner, however I'm not sure I see a team offering him 7+ guaranteed years.
Looking at last years FA hitter deals especially SS, Seager got a 10 year deal but he was two years younger, Semien did get 7 though. Personally I found both of those deals stupid for the team and so far neither has done much to prove me wrong and they were given out by the Rangers who were giving money out like candy. Story only got 6 years and had to wait a while, Baez got 6 years and was younger and Correa only was able to get 3 with opt outs that are making it look like it will be a 1 year deal. I think Xander is better than Story and Baez by a pretty good margin. Correa and Xander are pretty even if you ask me, Correa being younger took basically a 1 year deal with added insurance in case of injury. We'll see and obviously it only takes one team to offer a 7+ year deal to change things but I also don't see Xander wanting to sign for the top dollar and years if it means going to a crappy team like the Cubs. Then again the Red Sox are a pretty crappy team too right now so what do I know.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 27, 2022 9:12:12 GMT -5
I can see letting Bogaerts go. But my suggestion is still that they offer him the Trevor Story deal with the options going this way and that, but for 30M instead of 23. It's 5 years but could be 4 or 6. Only way I see Bloom/Henry offering him 30m and 5y is if Bogaerts agrees to switch to 3b, where the defense doesn't sting as much and also? Waive bye-bye to hopes of a Devers extension in all probability, except for the fans in the "Boston has highest ticket prices", "owners can afford anything" crowd. Believe another frontline starter may be the next splurge.
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Post by costpet on Jul 27, 2022 10:47:30 GMT -5
Whatever happens, Devers is paying close attention. And he’s only 25. I keep saying a 10/30 would get it done now for him. If they wait too long, that might not be enough. I would sign Devers first before dealing with X. Do it now before it’s too late.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 27, 2022 11:22:58 GMT -5
Whatever happens, Devers is paying close attention. And he’s only 25. I keep saying a 10/30 would get it done now for him. If they wait too long, that might not be enough. I would sign Devers first before dealing with X. Do it now before it’s too late. Why do you think that would get it done now for him?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2022 13:03:40 GMT -5
Whatever happens, Devers is paying close attention. And he’s only 25. I keep saying a 10/30 would get it done now for him. If they wait too long, that might not be enough. I would sign Devers first before dealing with X. Do it now before it’s too late. Why do you think that would get it done now for him? I agree. I think Devers is probably thinking 10 or 12 years at this point and I'd guess the range to be closer to 320 - 375 million. I know 375 million sounds ridiculous but that number will be blown away by Soto at some point in the not-so-distant future.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 27, 2022 14:11:45 GMT -5
Why do you think that would get it done now for him? I agree. I think Devers is probably thinking 10 or 12 years at this point and I'd guess the range to be closer to 320 - 375 million. I know 375 million sounds ridiculous but that number will be blown away by Soto at some point in the not-so-distant future. Agreed - based on what Soto's asking, what Seager got, the kind of season he's having and the fact that he has been consistently willing to bet on himself I'm thinking his target right now is a lot higher than $300M. If it's not I too would be on board with signing him for 10/300 right now.
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Post by theburn on Jul 27, 2022 14:14:43 GMT -5
Why do you think that would get it done now for him? I agree. I think Devers is probably thinking 10 or 12 years at this point and I'd guess the range to be closer to 320 - 375 million. I know 375 million sounds ridiculous but that number will be blown away by Soto at some point in the not-so-distant future. Exactly. It's possible, I suppose, that 10/300 would have got it done this spring, but given Devers' performance and the contract that Soto rejected, Devers will be asking for much more, and the Red Sox won't give it to him. If they do, they will have grossly miscalculated and violated their own policy of maximizing player value.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 27, 2022 14:53:38 GMT -5
I agree. I think Devers is probably thinking 10 or 12 years at this point and I'd guess the range to be closer to 320 - 375 million. I know 375 million sounds ridiculous but that number will be blown away by Soto at some point in the not-so-distant future. Exactly. It's possible, I suppose, that 10/300 would have got it done this spring, but given Devers' performance and the contract that Soto rejected, Devers will be asking for much more, and the Red Sox won't give it to him. If they do, they will have grossly miscalculated and violated their own policy of maximizing player value. You may be correct, but any comparison to Soto is apples-to-oranges. Soto has accumulated 21.2 fWAR with a 154 wRC (important because players are paid more for offense than defense) in ~5 seasons while Devers has accumulated 17.9 fWAR with a 126 wRC in ~5.5 seasons. There is a very large gap between the two based on performance, and that's not even counting Soto being 2 years younger, which is very important as he may continue to improve (as most players do) over his age 24 and 25 seasons. Devers has had a great season, but coming into the year ZiPs was projecting 4.5 fWAR for 2023 as opposed to Soto's 7.9 fWAR projection - that's a huge gap. It has been reported that the 15yr/440mil offer the Nationals made was extremely backloaded (a common theme for the Nationals), so the real AAV isn't legitimately 29.3mil. Also, the Nationals are expected to be up for sale soon and it's been rumored that Soto isn't confident that they can build a consistent winner around him. Devers may well get a 10yr/300mil contract (or more) but comparing Bogaerts or Devers contractual situation to Soto doesn't seem right.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 27, 2022 16:15:59 GMT -5
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 28, 2022 3:08:09 GMT -5
6 years 170 mill should be good enough. But if we’re paying Paxton/Price 27 million to not play for us then he’s worth whatever he wants. We have 120 million coming off the books if he opts out. Paying X to stay is a must. Pay him. He hasn’t hit for power this season so maybe that helps keep him closer to 25 million rather then 30 but i like 6 years.
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 28, 2022 8:47:39 GMT -5
I don't think I'd sign Xander to a long-term deal.
I think it's likely that three years from now, he'd be incapable of playing SS or 2B at a major league level, and then what do you do with him? I'm not sure he'd be able to play 3B - and even if he can, that means you're moving Devers to 1B or DH. Ideally, Casas would be your every day 1B. Maybe Xander could play LF? DH/Utility player? At probably $25+ million per year?
I have a similar concern about Devers. I don't want to be in a place where the organization is committed to paying their DH $35 million/year for the next eight or nine seasons.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2022 8:49:46 GMT -5
I don't think I'd sign Xander to a long-term deal. I think it's likely that three years from now, he'd be incapable of playing SS or 2B at a major league level, and then what do you do with him? I'm not sure he'd be able to play 3B - and even if he can, that means you're moving Devers to 1B or DH. Ideally, Casas would be your every day 1B. Maybe Xander could play LF? DH/Utility player? At probably $25+ million per year? I have a similar concern about Devers. I don't want to be in a place where the organization is committed to paying their DH $35 million/year for the next eight or nine seasons. I'm not sure why X couldn't play 3rd, from what I can tell his problem isn't his glove it's his range which theoretically wouldn't be as much of an issue at 3rd. I do get the concerns though, if the Sox let X go it'll sting but there are enough cons to giving him a 6+ year deal that I could understand it.
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 28, 2022 10:23:59 GMT -5
I don't think I'd sign Xander to a long-term deal. I think it's likely that three years from now, he'd be incapable of playing SS or 2B at a major league level, and then what do you do with him? I'm not sure he'd be able to play 3B - and even if he can, that means you're moving Devers to 1B or DH. Ideally, Casas would be your every day 1B. Maybe Xander could play LF? DH/Utility player? At probably $25+ million per year? I have a similar concern about Devers. I don't want to be in a place where the organization is committed to paying their DH $35 million/year for the next eight or nine seasons. I'm not sure why X couldn't play 3rd, from what I can tell his problem isn't his glove it's his range which theoretically wouldn't be as much of an issue at 3rd. I do get the concerns though, if the Sox let X go it'll sting but there are enough cons to giving him a 6+ year deal that I could understand it. Maybe he could play 3B... I'm just basing my concerns on the fact that he played the position at the start of his career, and he struggled with it. And again, moving Bogaerts to 3B means you've either traded Devers, or you're paying him $30+ million/year on a long-term contract to play 1B or DH... which isn't really optimal.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 28, 2022 10:47:37 GMT -5
I don't think I'd sign Xander to a long-term deal. I think it's likely that three years from now, he'd be incapable of playing SS or 2B at a major league level, and then what do you do with him? I'm not sure he'd be able to play 3B - and even if he can, that means you're moving Devers to 1B or DH. Ideally, Casas would be your every day 1B. Maybe Xander could play LF? DH/Utility player? At probably $25+ million per year? I have a similar concern about Devers. I don't want to be in a place where the organization is committed to paying their DH $35 million/year for the next eight or nine seasons. I'm not sure why X couldn't play 3rd, from what I can tell his problem isn't his glove it's his range which theoretically wouldn't be as much of an issue at 3rd. I do get the concerns though, if the Sox let X go it'll sting but there are enough cons to giving him a 6+ year deal that I could understand it. Well he kind of stunk there when he started out at 3B as a rookie. That's a long time ago, obviously, but I'm wary of the old "ehh, he can just figure out another position on the fly" assumption. (I'm still traumatized by watching Hanley in LF.) And then when you're talking about making a $150 million bet on the proposition...
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2022 10:52:49 GMT -5
I'm not sure why X couldn't play 3rd, from what I can tell his problem isn't his glove it's his range which theoretically wouldn't be as much of an issue at 3rd. I do get the concerns though, if the Sox let X go it'll sting but there are enough cons to giving him a 6+ year deal that I could understand it. Well he kind of stunk there when he started out at 3B as a rookie. That's a long time ago, obviously, but I'm wary of the old "ehh, he can just figure out another position on the fly" assumption. (I'm still traumatized by watching Hanley in LF.) And then when you're talking about making a $150 million bet on the proposition... He's played a grand total of 53 games at 3rd across the 2013 and 2014 seasons when he was 20-21 years old and quite frankly wasn't a good fielder no matter where they put him. I can get the side of the argument that they shouldn't be giving 30 mil AAV for 6 years with the assumption he will learn 3rd base no problem however I guess it doesn't really worry me and I'm of the belief he'd do fine there. Maybe he won't, I certainly think we'll find out in the next few seasons if he can do it since I do believe he only has another 2-3 seasons of being a viable SS left.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 28, 2022 10:57:46 GMT -5
Well he kind of stunk there when he started out at 3B as a rookie. That's a long time ago, obviously, but I'm wary of the old "ehh, he can just figure out another position on the fly" assumption. (I'm still traumatized by watching Hanley in LF.) And then when you're talking about making a $150 million bet on the proposition... He's played a grand total of 53 games at 3rd across the 2013 and 2014 seasons when he was 20-21 years old and quite frankly wasn't a good fielder no matter where they put him. I can get the side of the argument that they shouldn't be giving 30 mil AAV for 6 years with the assumption he will learn 3rd base no problem however I guess it doesn't really worry me and I'm of the belief he'd do fine there. Maybe he won't, I certainly think we'll find out in the next few seasons if he can do it since I do believe he only has another 2-3 seasons of being a viable SS left. Why couldn’t he move to 1st?
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Post by manfred on Jul 28, 2022 10:59:24 GMT -5
Two thoughts about X long-term: 1) Once he has his last mega-deal, he might be more agreeable to moving positions. Why not at that point? 2) If they could get a replacement for JDM on a 2-3 year contract, they could pencil X in as DH once he nears his mid-30s.
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 28, 2022 11:00:56 GMT -5
Well he kind of stunk there when he started out at 3B as a rookie. That's a long time ago, obviously, but I'm wary of the old "ehh, he can just figure out another position on the fly" assumption. (I'm still traumatized by watching Hanley in LF.) And then when you're talking about making a $150 million bet on the proposition... He's played a grand total of 53 games at 3rd across the 2013 and 2014 seasons when he was 20-21 years old and quite frankly wasn't a good fielder no matter where they put him. I can get the side of the argument that they shouldn't be giving 30 mil AAV for 6 years with the assumption he will learn 3rd base no problem however I guess it doesn't really worry me and I'm of the belief he'd do fine there. Maybe he won't, I certainly think we'll find out in the next few seasons if he can do it since I do believe he only has another 2-3 seasons of being a viable SS left. So, three years from now, you're OK with paying maybe $60 million/year combined to Bogaerts to maybe play 3B at an acceptable level, and for Devers to be your DH?
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