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Post by James Dunne on Apr 24, 2024 10:17:08 GMT -5
Double-A plate appearances for some of Boston's top-100 guys: Moncada 207 Betts 257 Benintendi 263 Pedroia 316 Devers 320 Ellsbury 325 Casas 329 Bogaerts 356 Swihart 387 Middlebrooks 401 Chavis 413 Lowrie 428 Rafaela 579 Youkilis 620
Moncada was physically advanced (and probably needed more time there, Betts is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and Benintendi absolutely annihilated Double-A.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 24, 2024 11:20:07 GMT -5
Double-A plate appearances for some of Boston's top-100 guys: Moncada 207 Betts 257 Benintendi 263 Pedroia 316 Devers 320 Ellsbury 325 Casas 329 Bogaerts 356 Swihart 387 Middlebrooks 401 Chavis 413 Lowrie 428 Rafaela 579 Youkilis 620 Moncada was physically advanced (and probably needed more time there, Betts is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and Benintendi absolutely annihilated Double-A. Mathing out loud: If he is hitting well, and gets another 25 games = 100 more PA's = 350, that's about 5 weeks = early June. That seems pretty reasonable for us to be promotion watching for several players. And at the same time, if he starts dominating, maybe it's three weeks -- or more than five if he struggles with his approach or something.
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 101
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Post by hank on Apr 24, 2024 11:59:41 GMT -5
Mayer will be promoted right after 6/9. Last time I went to Portland to see a game Devers was there. 2 days later he was promoted. I expect the same to happen here as I have tix to the Sunday 6/9 game. I'm bringing the promotion force with me.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Apr 24, 2024 12:04:14 GMT -5
Mayer will be promoted right after 6/9. Last time I went to Portland to see a game Devers was there. 2 days later he was promoted. I expect the same to happen here as I have tix to the Sunday 6/9 game. I'm bringing the promotion force with me. I miss the days at Hadlock when you knew a promotion was going to happen because Theo was at the game. Look Theo is here, who is he coming to get !!!
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Post by ephus on Apr 25, 2024 8:56:18 GMT -5
So great seeing this kid finally healthy. That swing is gonna make him a terror in Yankee Stadium and I can not wait.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2024 9:08:22 GMT -5
Mayer will be promoted right after 6/9. Last time I went to Portland to see a game Devers was there. 2 days later he was promoted. I expect the same to happen here as I have tix to the Sunday 6/9 game. I'm bringing the promotion force with me. I miss the days at Hadlock when you knew a promotion was going to happen because Theo was at the game. Look Theo is here, who is he coming to get !!! It's made amateur scouting rumors tougher too. Used to see the GM scouting the first round options. Now it's all on video. Can remember when we knew Kolbrin Vitek was on the first round short list because Theo went to see him in his conference tournament or something.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on May 2, 2024 23:28:02 GMT -5
FWIW, Law still thinks Mayer is having issues with breaking balls.
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Post by incandenza on May 3, 2024 0:01:02 GMT -5
I know nothing about scouting, so I'm totally just puzzling things out from the sidelines, but isn't "has a lot of trouble hitting breaking stuff" a pretty major flaw in a prospect? But Law still has him as a top-10 prospect, soxprospects still has him as a 5.5, etc. So is it:
a) We shouldn't be too worried about his ability to correct this. b) He can still be a successful major leaguer even if he doesn't correct this.
Or something else? How should I be thinking about this?
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Post by bojacksoxfan on May 3, 2024 7:09:52 GMT -5
Yes, as this issue persists deeper into his pro career it's hard not think there is some stubborness creeping into his rankings. "He's so talented he'll figure out" becomes less an evaluation and more stubborness with some opinion anchoring thrown in (for an evaluator) and wishcasting (for fans).
What do we know from watching the Sox pitching staff transformation under Bailey? Teams are throwing fewer fastballs than ever. This is more and more a breaking ball league. The "good, but struggles with breaking balls" report has to be an issue that at some point flips to "struggles with breaking balls, but has made it work in the minors we'll see if he can do it in the majors".
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Post by bluechip on May 3, 2024 7:47:17 GMT -5
Are there other recent scouting reports discussing his problems hitting sliders. I have not personally seen him, but I’m not going to freak out over a random Keith Law report.
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Post by patford on May 3, 2024 7:50:18 GMT -5
Keith Law is the Mel Kiper of baseball.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2024 7:50:38 GMT -5
Are there other recent scouting reports discussing his problems hitting sliders. I have not personally seen him, but I’m not going to freak out over a random Keith Law report. Ian just mentioned it on the last podcast and that’s been the common refrain on him for a while, certainly not isolated to just that Law article.
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Post by huskies15 on May 3, 2024 7:57:39 GMT -5
Honest question: how many prospects and players don't struggle with breaking balls? Seems to me there's a reason they're being more and more emphasized across baseball, they're hard to hit!
Are Mayer's struggles that much greater than most top prospects in this regard?
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Post by greenmonster on May 3, 2024 8:56:11 GMT -5
Honest question: how many prospects and players don't struggle with breaking balls? Seems to me there's a reason they're being more and more emphasized across baseball, they're hard to hit! Are Mayer's struggles that much greater than most top prospects in this regard? Jackson Holliday would agree.... www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hollid000jac
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Post by seamus on May 3, 2024 9:10:41 GMT -5
I'm fine if a prospect does their damage against fastballs - even as its popularity wanes, it's still going to be thrown at least a plurality of the time overall, so the opportunity is there. The key is just whether or not the prospect can limit creating outs on breaking balls out of the zone (either with chasing or weak contact). Is Marcelo chasing breaking balls at this point, and is that something that will improve through exposure? The only way to really get better against breaking balls is to see good ones, and there's only so much that can be done on that before the upper minors.
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Post by puzzler on May 3, 2024 9:17:10 GMT -5
They obviously should have taken Rigo Sanchez instead of Bo Gentry - when will they ever learn?
The league will adjust - the more spin that gets thrown, the more it's going to get hit. More important is swinging at strikes - I've only watched Mayer a little (a few games), but he does seem to swing at breaking pitches out of the zone a good bit and I think that is the bigger issue than whether or not 'he hits breaking pitches'. At AA, he should be laser focused on good swing decisions. Tristan Casas doesn't hit breaking pitches all that well - but from my poor memory, it seems he was more focused on making the best swing decisions in AA and AAA than putting up huge numbers and while that isn't the whole story, that has paid off very well for him in the majors.
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Post by patford on May 3, 2024 10:24:48 GMT -5
Last season before the injury became a topic the story was Mayer was struggling because he got a steady diet of breaking balls since arriving in Portland. As he is now hitting in Portland I guess it must be that every team in the Eastern League lost their scouting reports, have no access to the internet and suffer from severe memory loss.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2024 10:27:37 GMT -5
Fwiw, there's a difference between needing to improve against breaking balls and "holy crap this guy is never going to hit breaking balls." I think we're more in the former with Meyer.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on May 3, 2024 10:45:35 GMT -5
Seems like we're in a slow week for minor league baseball, in that we're spending so much time on one Keith Law chat snippet.
Seems like a positive comment, honestly:
Mayer lost some luster due to injuries last year but is still a legit top ten prospect and he's performing well now that he's healthy. Developmentally, he has work to do, specifically with respect to breaking balls.
That's not a negative take in the least.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2024 11:11:38 GMT -5
Seems like we're in a slow week for minor league baseball, in that we're spending so much time on one Keith Law chat snippet. Seems like a positive comment, honestly: Mayer lost some luster due to injuries last year but is still a legit top ten prospect and he's performing well now that he's healthy. Developmentally, he has work to do, specifically with respect to breaking balls. That's not a negative take in the least. Lots of folks here just freak out anytime Law doesn't gush over the Sox
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Post by incandenza on May 3, 2024 11:26:17 GMT -5
Seems like we're in a slow week for minor league baseball, in that we're spending so much time on one Keith Law chat snippet. Seems like a positive comment, honestly: Mayer lost some luster due to injuries last year but is still a legit top ten prospect and he's performing well now that he's healthy. Developmentally, he has work to do, specifically with respect to breaking balls. That's not a negative take in the least. Speaking for myself, I wasn't responding so much to Law specifically as the fact that the issue has been present throughout his development. For instance the scouting report here says: The bolded stuff seems like fairly significant warts, and it surprises me that they come attached to such a highly-regarded prospect. But that's literally all I'm saying: that it surprises me, not that the rankings are wrong. Chris' brief response was basically "needs some work, but he's not that bad," so maybe that's all there is to it.
But IIRC, too, he had some really dreadful stats against breaking pitches even in 2022. I'd be curious to see an update on that.
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Post by soxin8 on May 3, 2024 12:26:28 GMT -5
I don't know if this is meaningful but I can tell you a little about the 5 games he played in Hartford. Marcelo went 7 for 22 with 3 walks and 5 k's. I didn't record all his swings and misses like I did with the pitchers but I did get the strike outs.
Tuesday k's were on 86 and 98. Wednesday was 93. Thursday was his off day. Friday was on 82, Sunday was 80.
I recorded some but not all the hits which may have been more relevant to this discussion.
Wednesdays 3 hits: HR 79, S 85, Do 92. Friday S 94, didn't record the second S. I also missed Saturdays 2 hits. (I'll try to do better next time).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2024 13:40:31 GMT -5
Fwiw, in a SSS, the chase rate is much better this year. But on all of this stuff, I'm not drawing conclusions in either direction yet. Heck, look at what Campbell has done to his line in 3 games.
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Post by hijay on May 3, 2024 13:59:34 GMT -5
It is the curse of Jobu! Pedro Cerrano would like a word:
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Post by benogliviesbrother on May 3, 2024 17:14:49 GMT -5
Keith Law is the Mel Kiper of baseball. Was that intended as in insult? Mel has a had an envious career while almost single-handedly launching an industry (for good or ill, you decide).
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