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Post by evanstonredsox on Jun 13, 2023 10:00:45 GMT -5
“against the approximately 250 non-fastballs Mayer has seen on tape as of list publication, he is hitting .098/.233/.118”
From the fangraphs rankings write up. This can’t be true, can it? Feel like that’s a massive red flag if true.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jun 13, 2023 10:15:46 GMT -5
“against the approximately 250 non-fastballs Mayer has seen on tape as of list publication, he is hitting .098/.233/.118” From the fangraphs rankings write up. This can’t be true, can it? Feel like that’s a massive red flag if true. I very much doubt Longenhagen would publish a stat like that without verifying it. I don't know how much of that is a surprise though, he has been running pretty elevated K rates in the minors so there was bound to be some kind of stat to back up that there are holes in his swing. The hit tool is the question mark with him.
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huskies15
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 13, 2023 10:16:30 GMT -5
Yeah Eric at Fangraphs has been consistent with his question marks on Mayer's hit tool. That would be a pretty good red flag right there. Not a glowing review of his defense/athleticism either.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 13, 2023 10:27:16 GMT -5
Yeah Eric at Fangraphs has been consistent with his question marks on Mayer's hit tool. That would be a pretty good red flag right there. Not a glowing review of his defense/athleticism either. You make it sound like Longenhagen is panning him. These are more like notes of caution than red flags in a write-up that also has him saying:
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 13, 2023 11:54:20 GMT -5
Yeah Eric at Fangraphs has been consistent with his question marks on Mayer's hit tool. That would be a pretty good red flag right there. Not a glowing review of his defense/athleticism either. You make it sound like Longenhagen is panning him. These are more like notes of caution than red flags in a write-up that also has him saying:
Sounds like to me that he'll be tested with fastballs and probably will do quite well and then he'll be tested with secondary pitches that it sounds like he'll struggle to hit so he'll either have to adjust or more likely show enough discipline not to swing at those pitches which aren't strikes so he can force fastball counts and do his damage. that's what I get from that. The caution is that if he isnt disciplined enough theyll go after him with secondaries and if he's flailing away he'll struggle.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 13, 2023 12:07:51 GMT -5
One thing I don't quite get: supposedly Bleis was struggling this season before he got hurt because people were throwing him nothing but breaking balls, as he had proven he could crush fastballs. If they could do that to Bleis in Salem, why didn't they do that to Mayer at Greenville, if he's really as bad with the offspeed stuff as Longenhagen's numbers say he is?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 13, 2023 12:17:12 GMT -5
One thing I don't quite get: supposedly Bleis was struggling this season before he got hurt because people were throwing him nothing but breaking balls, as he had proven he could crush fastballs. If they could do that to Bleis in Salem, why didn't they do that to Mayer at Greenville, if he's really as bad with the offspeed stuff as Longenhagen's numbers say he is? I was wondering basically the same thing. If Mayer was THAT bad vs non-fastballs, he wouldn't have been challenged with constant breaking balls already? It doesn't seem to make sense.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Jun 13, 2023 13:39:01 GMT -5
One thing I don't quite get: supposedly Bleis was struggling this season before he got hurt because people were throwing him nothing but breaking balls, as he had proven he could crush fastballs. If they could do that to Bleis in Salem, why didn't they do that to Mayer at Greenville, if he's really as bad with the offspeed stuff as Longenhagen's numbers say he is? I was wondering basically the same thing. If Mayer was THAT bad vs non-fastballs, he wouldn't have been challenged with constant breaking balls already? It doesn't seem to make sense. That’s why I’m confused about this slash line. He’d have to be hitting fastballs at an absolutely ridiculous rate to support his season numbers (which I guess he is)
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 13, 2023 13:39:48 GMT -5
On the positive side how good must his numbers be VS fastball??
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 13, 2023 14:04:13 GMT -5
The point is, other teams wouldn't just keep throwing him enough enough fastballs to support that average. If the difference was THAT vast, he'd have been getting a steady diet of breaking balls for the last year +, I would think.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jun 13, 2023 14:39:44 GMT -5
The point is, other teams wouldn't just keep throwing him enough enough fastballs to support that average. If the difference was THAT vast, he'd have been getting a steady diet of breaking balls for the last year +, I would think. I don't really understand what that slash line is supposed to mean. If he sees a non-fastball at 0-0 and he takes it, does that count as .000/.000/.000? Or do only the non-fastballs that conclude PAs count (in which case, is the sample size really 250, or is it much smaller?)
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 13, 2023 14:47:28 GMT -5
The point is, other teams wouldn't just keep throwing him enough enough fastballs to support that average. If the difference was THAT vast, he'd have been getting a steady diet of breaking balls for the last year +, I would think. I don't really understand what that slash line is supposed to mean. If he sees a non-fastball at 0-0 and he takes it, does that count as .000/.000/.000? Or do only the non-fastballs that conclude PAs count (in which case, is the sample size really 250, or is it much smaller?) This is a fair point, it sounds to me like it just means he's seen 250 non-fastballs. Probably didn't swing or conclude his AB on a good portion of them and the ones he did conclude his AB on he hasn't done very well. That being said for all we know the sample size is 20 non-fastballs he's either struck out or hit into an out on. I don't really think that the stat is telling us much other than it's something to monitor.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 13, 2023 15:26:20 GMT -5
Okay, so the smallest number of at bats, hits and total bases that generates a .098/.118 line is 10 for 102 with 12 total bases. That would leave him at 136 for 422 against fastballs. .322/.616. I guess that is the realm of plausibility.
If it's ~250 at bats ending in fastballs, that would be 25 for 255 with 30 total bases. Then he'd be batting 121 for 279 against fastballs, .433/.824. That would be pretty extreme but not impossible I guess.
But he can't have only seen 250 total non-fastballs in 633 PA, so I think it has to be only counting pitches that ended the at bat.
BTW, just about all of Marcelo's extra base hits are archived on Hunter Noll's Twitter account, you wouldn't need to find very many against non-fastballs to falsify this stat.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 13, 2023 15:55:58 GMT -5
“against the approximately 250 non-fastballs Mayer has seen on tape as of list publication, he is hitting .098/.233/.118” From the fangraphs rankings write up. This can’t be true, can it? Feel like that’s a massive red flag if true. For whatever it's worth, he acknowledges this isn't a complete sample. Nothing in data I've seen gives me quite the level of pause that line would. Spin has been his weakest pitch type this year but again, not nearly at that sort of level (and he was better in May than April). Like fwiw, his OPS against changeups is over 1.000 this year.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 13, 2023 17:20:56 GMT -5
How can you have an OBP different than BA? A walk takes four balls, not just the non-fastballs.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jun 13, 2023 17:48:53 GMT -5
I wonder, how prevalent is Mayer's "problem" compared to other top prospects? My guess is that most top prospects can hit a fastball, but need time to adjust to breaking balls. Is what he's experiencing out of the norm?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 13, 2023 18:08:08 GMT -5
How can you have an OBP different than BA? A walk takes four balls, not just the non-fastballs. If ball 4 is the pitch in question.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 13, 2023 20:56:22 GMT -5
Given that throwing a good breaking ball for a strike can be tough for a major league pitcher, it's likely most breaking balls that end an at-bat in A+/AA are outside the strike zone. So it's more a look at plate patience.
He doesn't seem to be crushing hanging breaking balls, but given the small sample, he may not have had the opportunity.
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Post by jdb on Jun 14, 2023 6:49:29 GMT -5
The portion of fangraphs write up that confused me was their defense take. I thought he was a slam dunk SS at least for the early portion of his career.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 14, 2023 9:03:12 GMT -5
The portion of fangraphs write up that confused me was their defense take. I thought he was a slam dunk SS at least for the early portion of his career. Most evaluators think he is but I’ve seen a couple that are iffy on it (although now that I think of it that could have just been Longenhagen both times)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 14, 2023 9:12:58 GMT -5
Defensive scouting reports don’t always line up with defensive data at the big league level anyway. Seems pretty clear that he is viewed as a SS inside the org so I’m not concerned with what EL says.
And yeah, if he was crushing every type of pitch he’d probably be in Boston right now. The K rate is his only issue in my eyes, but if it stays in its current range I think he’ll make up for it with his pop.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 14, 2023 9:32:15 GMT -5
The portion of fangraphs write up that confused me was their defense take. I thought he was a slam dunk SS at least for the early portion of his career. Most evaluators think he is but I’ve seen a couple that are iffy on it (although now that I think of it that could have just been Longenhagen both times) It was. Longenhagen has been kind of on an island there (being consistent at least - if that's your eval, stick with it). You're likely remembering when his top 100 came out.
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Post by stunzisox on Jun 15, 2023 22:01:44 GMT -5
Mayers Home Run tonight, get this…it was on a breaking ball 🤯
¡imposible!
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Post by pd on Jul 23, 2023 13:19:09 GMT -5
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 23, 2023 18:04:19 GMT -5
Love the news that Mayer has been promoted. One step closer to Boston! Selfishly, I am excited as Mayer is now a mere 30 minute drive away from seeing him with my own eyes ! Pretty exciting that he is playing at AA in his age 20 season. Have you seen him live? Looking at the stats it looks to me like it is time to pump the brakes on the hype. He might take a little longer to develop than everyone would like.
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