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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 23, 2023 20:03:37 GMT -5
Selfishly, I am excited as Mayer is now a mere 30 minute drive away from seeing him with my own eyes ! Pretty exciting that he is playing at AA in his age 20 season. Have you seen him live? Looking at the stats it looks to me like it is time to pump the brakes on the hype. He might take a little longer to develop than everyone would like. His BABIP is .230 as opposed to .338-.382 at his previous stops. BABIP tends to go down slightly as players advance, but if you conservatively bump it up to .300, he's still looking great offensively. K% keeps going down too. NO BRAKES!
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 23, 2023 20:10:31 GMT -5
Selfishly, I am excited as Mayer is now a mere 30 minute drive away from seeing him with my own eyes ! Pretty exciting that he is playing at AA in his age 20 season. Have you seen him live? Looking at the stats it looks to me like it is time to pump the brakes on the hype. He might take a little longer to develop than everyone would like. I have seen him play 2 times now. Kind of like Casas in the bigs this year, he is adjusting to being at the next level. Saw him hit a shot for a HR to right center and some hard contact outs. He is smooth in the field but I wonder about first step and range so far. He and Yorke turned good DP's the other day. Not nearly enough exposure to note any real concerns.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 23, 2023 21:53:14 GMT -5
With roughly equal 2023 samples in AA and A+, Mayer's K rate, BB rate, zone-contact rate, chase rate, and hard-hit rate are all about the same at each level. Meanwhile, his BABIP cratered from .347 to .230.
I'm not worried.
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pd
Rookie
Posts: 239
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Post by pd on Jul 23, 2023 22:08:16 GMT -5
With roughly equal 2023 samples in AA and A+, Mayer's K rate, BB rate, zone-contact rate, chase rate, and hard-hit rate are all about the same at each level. Meanwhile, his BABIP cratered from .347 to .230. I'm not worried. Pretty cool the level of information available to us these days.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 27, 2023 10:46:05 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 28, 2023 21:40:21 GMT -5
When do we get a bit concerned with Mayer?Tonight he was O-4 with 4 strikeouts, golden sombrero...He is at .200 BA. AA is obviously a struggle so far. I confess that as the #6? rated prospect in baseball, I expected that results would be better at this point.
What are his issues?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,061
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Post by cdj on Jul 29, 2023 0:57:16 GMT -5
When do we get a bit concerned with Mayer?Tonight he was O-4 with 4 strikeouts, golden sombrero...He is at .200 BA. AA is obviously a struggle so far. I confess that as the #6? rated prospect in baseball, I expected that results would be better at this point. What are his issues? He’s hitting balls hard and they’re not falling is the primary issue
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 29, 2023 8:21:58 GMT -5
I'll be in southern Maine beginning next week so I will be sure to catch a few games. If I have any relevant observations, I'll pass those along.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 29, 2023 10:33:26 GMT -5
When do we get a bit concerned with Mayer?Tonight he was O-4 with 4 strikeouts, golden sombrero...He is at .200 BA. AA is obviously a struggle so far. I confess that as the #6? rated prospect in baseball, I expected that results would be better at this point. What are his issues? He’s hitting balls hard and they’re not falling is the primary issue I know it was only 1 game, but if he strikes out 4 times in 1 game, I think we might want to look for another explanation. HE certainly wasn't hitting the ball hard in that game.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jul 29, 2023 10:41:48 GMT -5
When do we get a bit concerned with Mayer?Tonight he was O-4 with 4 strikeouts, golden sombrero...He is at .200 BA. AA is obviously a struggle so far. I confess that as the #6? rated prospect in baseball, I expected that results would be better at this point. What are his issues? On the last podcast, Ian talked about a recent visit to Portland.. the focus was on a number of other prospects, but he had a throwaway comment about how Mayer wasn’t being thrown any fastballs at this point. An abnormal pitch mix and the difference between A+ and AA breaking balls might be enough to generate some wonky data. I’d be a little less unconcerned if his BB and K numbers were out of whack, but even then.. it’s 40 games.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,061
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Post by cdj on Jul 29, 2023 10:52:25 GMT -5
He’s hitting balls hard and they’re not falling is the primary issue I know it was only 1 game, but if he strikes out 4 times in 1 game, I think we might want to look for another explanation. HE certainly wasn't hitting the ball hard in that game. Yeah well it’s 1 game where he did that so… K numbers are still pretty much inline with what they were at the last level. As are most if not all the other underlying metrics. His BABIP is like .230. That will not hold.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 29, 2023 11:06:09 GMT -5
When do we get a bit concerned with Mayer? More than 40 games.
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Post by chaimtime on Jul 29, 2023 12:52:44 GMT -5
He’s hitting balls hard and they’re not falling is the primary issue I know it was only 1 game, but if he strikes out 4 times in 1 game, I think we might want to look for another explanation. HE certainly wasn't hitting the ball hard in that game. It’s literally one game. One! Are we serious here?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2023 13:53:35 GMT -5
In his podcast with Darren Van Riper, Keith Law said Mayer is prob an opening day (or a few weeks after) 2025 guy at the earliest, with the lost time to injury last year costing him a bit of development. He also added, however, he adjusts so well that, if he's not on the Sox in July, 2024, he'll prob be his #1 or 2 MLB prospect, as the guys in front of him on his July 2023 list will probably be in MLB or on the cusp. He thinks Holiday is a May call-up next year, if not an opening day guy, which is insane.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 29, 2023 14:48:44 GMT -5
In his podcast with Darren Van Riper, Keith Law said Mayer is prob an opening day (or a few weeks after) 2025 guy at the earliest, with the lost time to injury last year costing him a bit of development. He also added, however, he adjusts so well that, if he's not on the Sox in July, 2024, he'll prob be his #1 or 2 MLB prospect, as the guys in front of him on his July 2023 list will probably be in MLB or on the cusp. He thinks Holiday is a May call-up next year, if not an opening day guy, which is insane. I hope Baltimore rushes Holliday up like that. And I’m fine with Mayer spending next year entirely in the minors too. Put me squarely in the slow and steady box when promoting prospects.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 29, 2023 14:50:46 GMT -5
When do we get a bit concerned with Mayer?Tonight he was O-4 with 4 strikeouts, golden sombrero...He is at .200 BA. AA is obviously a struggle so far. I confess that as the #6? rated prospect in baseball, I expected that results would be better at this point. What are his issues? My advice is that whenever anything about Mayer's current performance concerns you, do the following; 1. Turn on the Sox and watch Duran and Casas play like you once hoped they would. 2. Stop worrying about Mayer, he will be just fine too
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 29, 2023 15:10:51 GMT -5
When do we get a bit concerned with Mayer?Tonight he was O-4 with 4 strikeouts, golden sombrero...He is at .200 BA. AA is obviously a struggle so far. I confess that as the #6? rated prospect in baseball, I expected that results would be better at this point. What are his issues? My advice is that whenever anything about Mayer's current performance concerns you, do the following; 1. Turn on the Sox and watch Duran and Casas play like you once hoped they would. 2. Stop worrying about Mayer, he will be just fine too Different people progress at differing speeds clearly. Mayer is a work in progress. I was starting to pay closer attention to him based on his national ranking and hoping he would be blossoming. I hope the Casas and Duran performances are real. Those plus Yoshida and Turner have energized the offense of late And against pretty good pitching. Had they not, we would be sellers.
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Post by yaz1967 on Aug 5, 2023 11:45:40 GMT -5
Any news on Marcelo? Not in the lineup Thursday or last night. Hitting now 189. Something not right.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 5, 2023 12:21:16 GMT -5
Any news on Marcelo? Not in the lineup Thursday or last night. Hitting now 189. Something not right. He may be getting a break. I saw that he had struck out 14 times in 26 at bats recently.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 5, 2023 20:03:34 GMT -5
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conor
New Member
Posts: 1
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Post by conor on Aug 13, 2023 17:51:54 GMT -5
Where can I get up to date information on Mayer? With his average, I don't understand why he is still ranked so high. Can he really hit?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2023 15:30:26 GMT -5
Not to be glib about tragedy, but two of the three lowest WAR totals on that list are guys who literally died. I would have to call those exceptions that prove the rule. Profar, then, is the biggest disappointment and every other guy has had a 10+ WAR career, which is my own personal threshold for a solid major league career.
I'd certainly agree that we can't just project Mayer as an All-Star. But I don't think most people are doing that. And honestly, the hit rate on these top prospects seems about as good or better than the hit rate on *current* stars. E.g., how does Trout's season compare to what you would have expected a couple of years ago? Or how has Sale done compared to what we might have expected in 2018? Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodon? If you don't want to consider Mayer in your long-term plans for the organization, you might as well say that nothing at all is knowable about the future.
(moved from another thread)
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,320
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Post by radiohix on Sept 6, 2023 14:56:44 GMT -5
In his first 2 seasons he dealt small but nagging injuries: The wrist last year and the shoulder this year…
Reminds of Moncada’s time with the farm. Hope he comes back stronger than ever.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 6, 2023 14:59:19 GMT -5
On paper he seems like an AFL candidate, but they may just want him to rehab the shoulder in Fort Myers instead.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 6, 2023 19:43:01 GMT -5
So, between last year and this year, Mayer’s lost a year of development time.
Mid to late 2025 or early 2026 looking like most realistic trajectory for MLB now, yes?
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