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Post by James Dunne on Jun 3, 2022 11:19:05 GMT -5
Could go with Jeopardy James Holzhauer's "All in" Not sure people will get the reference but I like where your head's at.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 12, 2022 19:48:23 GMT -5
So have we reached the point yet where we can think about Mayer playing in Greenville in July or August? Or is the 27.8% K rate (vs. 9.5% BB) too high?
EDIT: As long as we're dreaming here, that's Greenvile/Portland in '23 and Portland/Worcester, with a possible cup of big league coffee in '24 (if he's old enough to drink coffee by then). That would be right on the SP schedule...
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Post by larrycook on Jun 12, 2022 20:09:38 GMT -5
Mayer hit a tater off of Vernon, who is having a monster season. Pretty impressive!
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 12, 2022 21:46:50 GMT -5
Mayer hit a tater off of Vernon, who is having a monster season. Pretty impressive! Just spent a minute reading up on Austin Vernon. 4 year college starter and is 6'8 with a fastball he runs up to 98 and a power slider to match. Nearly 4 years older than Mayer too. Not every matchup is like this for Mayer, but it's impressive what he's doing against more experienced competition.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 12, 2022 22:53:56 GMT -5
Mayer hit a tater off of Vernon, who is having a monster season. Pretty impressive! Just spent a minute reading up on Austin Vernon. 4 year college starter and is 6'8 with a fastball he runs up to 98 and a power slider to match. Nearly 4 years older than Mayer too. Not every matchup is like this for Mayer, but it's impressive what he's doing against more experienced competition. Makes you wonder what guys like Vernon think when he crushes one of their deliveries. Sure, they've heard of him but he's still a 19-yo kid with less than 250 professional PAs. They must go into the AB thinking, "I'll show you something you've never seen before, kid."
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Post by bosox1025 on Jun 13, 2022 7:03:27 GMT -5
So have we reached the point yet where we can think about Mayer playing in Greenville in July or August? Or is the 27.8% K rate (vs. 9.5% BB) too high?
EDIT: As long as we're dreaming here, that's Greenvile/Portland in '23 and Portland/Worcester, with a possible cup of big league coffee in '24 (if he's old enough to drink coffee by then). That would be right on the SP schedule...
Seems like mid-Aug is a fair timeline barring injury/underperformance. They gave Yorke ~350 PA in Salem last year, and despite his April struggles, he had a much lower K rate with only slightly less SLG. Given Yorke’s challenges in Hi-A this year (aided by injuries), probably wouldn’t hurt to be patient and let Mayer hopefully begin to dominate & build some confidence in Salem.
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Post by borisman on Jun 13, 2022 8:42:22 GMT -5
I saw on Twitter someone praising "Chaim" for the Mayer pick. Let's be real, he fell in the Sox lap. It was a no-brainer in these parts. There were some that wanted Lawlar, House or ever Sal Frelick (though that was with the notion that Mayer, Leiter and Davis would possibly not be there) but if taking a poll Mayer would have crushed it to near unanimous. There were rumors O's wanted Jobe so one of those players were likely to fall to us.
BTW, anyone else seeing what Lawlar is doing in Cali league? Lots of K's but he's slashing .350/.460l/.600 with 7 HR's. Nice comp #'s between the two. But I like our SS way better.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jun 13, 2022 10:22:31 GMT -5
Need a thrid ss to emerge to recreate the ARod, Jeter, Nomar triumverate (and Nomah was better til the wrist injury).
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Post by borisman on Jun 13, 2022 11:18:02 GMT -5
Need a thrid ss to emerge to recreate the ARod, Jeter, Nomar triumverate (and Nomah was better til the wrist injury). Ha! Was going to mention something similar but Lawlar is in the NL.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 13, 2022 15:19:04 GMT -5
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 13, 2022 17:08:59 GMT -5
There are some aggressively humble quotes from Mayer in that article. Down to the media training he really does seem like an instant-star kit of a prospect.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 15, 2022 0:50:06 GMT -5
this kid is an STD with a U in it! Absolute STUD
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Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2022 15:44:49 GMT -5
Name - Org | Pick # | Bonus | PAs | BA | BABIP | BB% | K% | IsoP | HR | wRC+ | SB(CS) | Marcelo Mayer - BOS | 4 | $6.66M | 131 | .319 | .427 | 11.5% | 27.5% | .239 | 4 | 160 | 8(0) | Jordan Lawlar - ARI | 6 | $6.71M | 152 | .352 | .457 | 13.8% | 25.0% | .248 | 7 | 176 | 18(3) | Benny Montgomery - COL | 8 | $5.00M | 64 | .267 | .368 | 4.7% | 31.3% | .167 | 2 | 94 | 3(0) | Brady House - WAS | 11 | $5.00M | 203 | .278 | .393 | 5.9% | 29.1% | .097 | 3 | 111 | 1(0) | Harry Ford - SEA | 12 | $4.37M | 195 | .216 | .287 | 19.5% | 25.1% | .124 | 4 | 104 | 8(1) | Kahlil Watson - MIA | 16 | $4.54M | 201 | .223 | .354 | 4.5% | 41.8% | .160 | 7 | 85 | 9(0) | Colson Montgomery - CHW | 22 | $3.03M | 174 | .301 | .368 | 13.2% | 20.7% | .175 | 4 | 148 | 0(0) | Max Muncy - OAK | 25 | $2.85M | 241 | .235 | .310 | 14.1% | 31.1% | .240 | 11 | 117 | 5(1) | Jackson Merrill - SDP | 27 | $1.80M | 63 | .393 | .447 | 9.5% | 12.7% | .125 | 1 | 161 | 4(2) | Carson Williams - TB | 28 | $2.35M | 225 | .269 | .417 | 12.0% | 35.1% | .244 | 7 | 142 | 15(4) | Jay Allen II - CIN | 30 | $2.40M | 211 | .249 | .328 | 13.7% | 21.8% | .101 | 2 | 123 | 25(5) |
Checking in on HS bats drafted in the 1st round last year. Note the differing the sample sizes (PAs) across players but I wanted to include all the HS bats currently in Low-A.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,314
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Post by radiohix on Jun 15, 2022 16:07:04 GMT -5
It crossed my mind this morning to do a similar list with BB% K% IsoP and LD% and then I thought “ Nah, ramerija will do it at some point and spare me all the work” I kid you not 😂😂
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2022 16:24:03 GMT -5
Worth noting that Lawlar is at Visalia, which is, uhhhh, a slightly friendlier hitting environment than Salem. The California League isn't *quite* as extreme as it was in the Bubba Bell era, but it's still a hitter's league.
I also didn't realize that Lawlar got $50K more than Mayer to sign.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 15, 2022 18:14:11 GMT -5
Worth noting that Lawlar is at Visalia, which is, uhhhh, a slightly friendlier hitting environment than Salem. The California League isn't *quite* as extreme as it was in the Bubba Bell era, but it's still a hitter's league. I also didn't realize that Lawlar got $50K more than Mayer to sign. Not that it's everything, but wrc is there which will account for some league factors. Also, Lawler was the DBacks last guy to sign (2 days before deadline) and he ended up being their guy that brought them up to their bonus pool limit. It's hard to believe he wasn't always gonna sign, but there was smoke that he was considering going to Vandy and trying to go first overall later, especially if he had slipped past Arizona at 6.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 15, 2022 20:15:54 GMT -5
Worth noting that Lawlar is at Visalia, which is, uhhhh, a slightly friendlier hitting environment than Salem. The California League isn't *quite* as extreme as it was in the Bubba Bell era, but it's still a hitter's league. I also didn't realize that Lawlar got $50K more than Mayer to sign. Not that it's everything, but wrc is there which will account for some league factors. Also, Lawler was the DBacks last guy to sign (2 days before deadline) and he ended up being their guy that brought them up to their bonus pool limit. It's hard to believe he wasn't always gonna sign, but there was smoke that he was considering going to Vandy and trying to go first overall later, especially if he had slipped past Arizona at 6. wRC+ does not however adjust for absurd BABIPs which is why xwOBA is much better.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 15, 2022 21:04:38 GMT -5
Not that it's everything, but wrc is there which will account for some league factors. Also, Lawler was the DBacks last guy to sign (2 days before deadline) and he ended up being their guy that brought them up to their bonus pool limit. It's hard to believe he wasn't always gonna sign, but there was smoke that he was considering going to Vandy and trying to go first overall later, especially if he had slipped past Arizona at 6. wRC+ does not however adjust for absurd BABIPs which is why xwOBA is much better. Ok? Adjusts for league effects which is what this was directly referring to.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 15, 2022 21:35:15 GMT -5
wRC+ does not however adjust for absurd BABIPs which is why xwOBA is much better. Ok? Adjusts for league effects which is what this was directly referring to. BABIP would probably have more variance than league effects in such small samples sizes.
Either way, I had Mayer and Lawlar as my top two, as many did, so it fits into my expectations (although I recall a big Davis train rolling, which I was never on -- he's up to AA now but had good results in 124 PAs at high-A; not sure why he didn't make the list).
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2022 21:37:51 GMT -5
Worth noting that Lawlar is at Visalia, which is, uhhhh, a slightly friendlier hitting environment than Salem. The California League isn't *quite* as extreme as it was in the Bubba Bell era, but it's still a hitter's league. I also didn't realize that Lawlar got $50K more than Mayer to sign. Not that it's everything, but wrc is there which will account for some league factors. Also, Lawler was the DBacks last guy to sign (2 days before deadline) and he ended up being their guy that brought them up to their bonus pool limit. It's hard to believe he wasn't always gonna sign, but there was smoke that he was considering going to Vandy and trying to go first overall later, especially if he had slipped past Arizona at 6. How long do league/park effects take to stabilize, though? Like Greenville is showing it's playing as a hitters park this year on a level that's out of line with previous seasons. As it is, I'd say a .239 Iso in Salem is far more impressive than a .248 at Visalia, but there's also an OBP gap of over 60 points. As far as the bonus, I was not at all knocking the Diamondbacks for it (there were still quite a few folks who liked him better than Mayer at the time of the draft), it was just kind of something that I hadn't registered yet.
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Post by jl1947 on Jun 15, 2022 23:00:12 GMT -5
I was one of those who had him on a par with Mayer, and possibly having the higher ceiling of the two. Although, like most on this board I thought then as I do now that Mayer has a higher floor. If Lawlar clicks on all his tools he could be a monster!
That said, I think, that the Red Sox made a wise calculation that Mayer is the safer bet, because of his lower risk profile, to become at least a very good regular major league player.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 16, 2022 4:20:12 GMT -5
Not that it's everything, but wrc is there which will account for some league factors. Also, Lawler was the DBacks last guy to sign (2 days before deadline) and he ended up being their guy that brought them up to their bonus pool limit. It's hard to believe he wasn't always gonna sign, but there was smoke that he was considering going to Vandy and trying to go first overall later, especially if he had slipped past Arizona at 6. How long do league/park effects take to stabilize, though? Like Greenville is showing it's playing as a hitters park this year on a level that's out of line with previous seasons. As it is, I'd say a .239 Iso in Salem is far more impressive than a .248 at Visalia, but there's also an OBP gap of over 60 points. As far as the bonus, I was not at all knocking the Diamondbacks for it (there were still quite a few folks who liked him better than Mayer at the time of the draft), it was just kind of something that I hadn't registered yet. To be completely fair from a statistical perspective, MiLB park and league effects might not ever really capture what they're supposed to. There are 12 teams in the Carolina League and the year-to-year changes in talent are significant. What read as League effects may be reflective of changes in quality for minor leaguer's wrc+ much more frequently than they do for big leaguers. I wasn't thinking you were knocking the DBacks for it. I was just trying to add the context that he was among the harder signs last year for guys who were always going to be going to sign if that makes sense. His Vandy commitment was slightly more meaningful than Mayer's USC commitment, even if neither of them were stepping foot on campus if that makes sense.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 2, 2022 13:47:33 GMT -5
Hard not to be happy with how this is going so far.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 10, 2022 18:48:47 GMT -5
Here is a Low-A update on 2022 1st round position players now that Marcelo is up in High-A: Name - Org | Pick # | Bonus | PAs | BA | BABIP | BB% | K% | IsoP | HR | wRC+ | SB(CS) | Marcelo Mayer - BOS | 4 | $6.66M | 308 | .286 | .375 | 16.6% | 25.3% | .218 | 9 | 150 | 16(0) | Jordan Lawlar - ARI | 6 | $6.71M | 208 | .351 | .437 | 13.0% | 23.1% | .253 | 9 | 168 | 24(4) | Benny Montgomery - COL | 8 | $5.00M | 140 | .283 | .413 | 5.0% | 31.4% | .134 | 3 | 102 | 6(0) | Brady House - WAS | 11 | $5.00M | 203 | .278 | .393 | 5.9% | 29.1% | .097 | 3 | 111 | 1(0) | Harry Ford - SEA | 12 | $4.37M | 373 | .262 | .348 | 17.4% | 23.9% | .146 | 7 | 123 | 15(3) | Kahlil Watson - MIA | 16 | $4.54M | 280 | .217 | .333 | 7.1% | 38.6% | .142 | 8 | 83 | 14(0) | Colson Montgomery - CHW | 22 | $3.03M | 205 | .324 | .402 | 12.7% | 20.5% | .153 | 4 | 153 | 0(1) | Max Muncy - OAK | 25 | $2.85M | 365 | .230 | .298 | 14.0% | 29.9% | .217 | 16 | 108 | 6(5) | Jackson Merrill - SDP | 27 | $1.80M | 96 | .345 | .403 | 7.3% | 14.6% | .103 | 1 | 126 | 5(3) | Carson Williams - TB | 28 | $2.35M | 408 | .254 | .368 | 11.0% | 33.3% | .234 | 14 | 129 | 24(9) | Jay Allen II - CIN | 30 | $2.40M | 285 | .223 | .310 | 13.7% | 24.9% | .100 | 2 | 107 | 29(6) |
Not shown in table: High-A stats for Jordan Lawlar (87 PAs, 113 wRC+), Colson Montgomery (135 PAs, 130 wRC+), and Max Muncy (73 PAs, 102 wRC+). Mayer hang nears the top of IsoP group largely on the strength of his 26 2Bs which is the most among this group.
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Post by jaffinator on Aug 10, 2022 19:16:03 GMT -5
Here is a Low-A update on 2022 1st round position players now that Marcelo is up in High-A: Name - Org | Pick # | Bonus | PAs | BA | BABIP | BB% | K% | IsoP | HR | wRC+ | SB(CS) | Marcelo Mayer - BOS | 4 | $6.66M | 308 | .286 | .375 | 16.6% | 25.3% | .218 | 9 | 150 | 16(0) | Jordan Lawlar - ARI | 6 | $6.71M | 208 | .351 | .437 | 13.0% | 23.1% | .253 | 9 | 168 | 24(4) | Benny Montgomery - COL | 8 | $5.00M | 140 | .283 | .413 | 5.0% | 31.4% | .134 | 3 | 102 | 6(0) | Brady House - WAS | 11 | $5.00M | 203 | .278 | .393 | 5.9% | 29.1% | .097 | 3 | 111 | 1(0) | Harry Ford - SEA | 12 | $4.37M | 373 | .262 | .348 | 17.4% | 23.9% | .146 | 7 | 123 | 15(3) | Kahlil Watson - MIA | 16 | $4.54M | 280 | .217 | .333 | 7.1% | 38.6% | .142 | 8 | 83 | 14(0) | Colson Montgomery - CHW | 22 | $3.03M | 205 | .324 | .402 | 12.7% | 20.5% | .153 | 4 | 153 | 0(1) | Max Muncy - OAK | 25 | $2.85M | 365 | .230 | .298 | 14.0% | 29.9% | .217 | 16 | 108 | 6(5) | Jackson Merrill - SDP | 27 | $1.80M | 96 | .345 | .403 | 7.3% | 14.6% | .103 | 1 | 126 | 5(3) | Carson Williams - TB | 28 | $2.35M | 408 | .254 | .368 | 11.0% | 33.3% | .234 | 14 | 129 | 24(9) | Jay Allen II - CIN | 30 | $2.40M | 285 | .223 | .310 | 13.7% | 24.9% | .100 | 2 | 107 | 29(6) |
Not shown in table: High-A stats for Jordan Lawlar (87 PAs, 113 wRC+), Colson Montgomery (135 PAs, 130 wRC+), and Max Muncy (73 PAs, 102 wRC+). Mayer hang nears the top of IsoP group largely on the strength of his 26 2Bs which is the most among this group. Jordan Lawlar has stabilized a tiny bit on this recently, but he's had a difficult year fielding short. He had shoulder surgery and shouldn't be written off as a SS long term but it hasn't been easy for him there. That plus the high babip - function of his top end speed and it being the low minors - has me liking Mayer over him still. He's been absolutely hitting the hell out of the ball though, be an interesting guy to watch. I didn't know Colson Montgomery had been off to a start like that, super cool.
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