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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,314
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Post by radiohix on Aug 11, 2022 8:29:30 GMT -5
Here is a Low-A update on 2022 1st round position players now that Marcelo is up in High-A: Name - Org | Pick # | Bonus | PAs | BA | BABIP | BB% | K% | IsoP | HR | wRC+ | SB(CS) | Marcelo Mayer - BOS | 4 | $6.66M | 308 | .286 | .375 | 16.6% | 25.3% | .218 | 9 | 150 | 16(0) | Jordan Lawlar - ARI | 6 | $6.71M | 208 | .351 | .437 | 13.0% | 23.1% | .253 | 9 | 168 | 24(4) | Benny Montgomery - COL | 8 | $5.00M | 140 | .283 | .413 | 5.0% | 31.4% | .134 | 3 | 102 | 6(0) | Brady House - WAS | 11 | $5.00M | 203 | .278 | .393 | 5.9% | 29.1% | .097 | 3 | 111 | 1(0) | Harry Ford - SEA | 12 | $4.37M | 373 | .262 | .348 | 17.4% | 23.9% | .146 | 7 | 123 | 15(3) | Kahlil Watson - MIA | 16 | $4.54M | 280 | .217 | .333 | 7.1% | 38.6% | .142 | 8 | 83 | 14(0) | Colson Montgomery - CHW | 22 | $3.03M | 205 | .324 | .402 | 12.7% | 20.5% | .153 | 4 | 153 | 0(1) | Max Muncy - OAK | 25 | $2.85M | 365 | .230 | .298 | 14.0% | 29.9% | .217 | 16 | 108 | 6(5) | Jackson Merrill - SDP | 27 | $1.80M | 96 | .345 | .403 | 7.3% | 14.6% | .103 | 1 | 126 | 5(3) | Carson Williams - TB | 28 | $2.35M | 408 | .254 | .368 | 11.0% | 33.3% | .234 | 14 | 129 | 24(9) | Jay Allen II - CIN | 30 | $2.40M | 285 | .223 | .310 | 13.7% | 24.9% | .100 | 2 | 107 | 29(6) |
Not shown in table: High-A stats for Jordan Lawlar (87 PAs, 113 wRC+), Colson Montgomery (135 PAs, 130 wRC+), and Max Muncy (73 PAs, 102 wRC+). Mayer hang nears the top of IsoP group largely on the strength of his 26 2Bs which is the most among this group. Jordan Lawlar has stabilized a tiny bit on this recently, but he's had a difficult year fielding short. He had shoulder surgery and shouldn't be written off as a SS long term but it hasn't been easy for him there. That plus the high babip - function of his top end speed and it being the low minors - has me liking Mayer over him still. He's been absolutely hitting the hell out of the ball though, be an interesting guy to watch. I didn't know Colson Montgomery had been off to a start like that, super cool. Jordan Lawlar Low A xwOBA is .373 Marcelo Mayer Low A xwOBA is .421 Beside the chase% Mayer has been the superior hitter by a substantial margin in Low A.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 413
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Post by badfishnbc on Aug 19, 2022 18:38:06 GMT -5
Weird assessment from the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors:
Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 19, 2022 18:41:21 GMT -5
Dude stared at baseball reference for 5 minutes and couldn't come up with anything to say.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 19, 2022 18:42:20 GMT -5
Weird assessment from the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors: Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances. Yea that seems pretty clearly to be written by a guy who just stares at straight numbers rather then actually digging in on a player. I like MLBTR to try and stay in the know on any moves but their prospect watching and categorizing is subpar I'd say.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 19, 2022 18:50:09 GMT -5
MLB Trade Rumors? WTF?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 21:48:28 GMT -5
We all know that a 19-year-old's first 43 ABs in high-A tell the story of what his career is going to be like.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jan 6, 2023 19:27:20 GMT -5
Lock him up!!!!
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 3, 2023 12:37:39 GMT -5
I know comps are pretty useless, but does anyone see a lot of similarities to Nomar in Mayer?
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nomar
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Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Feb 3, 2023 12:54:18 GMT -5
I know comps are pretty useless, but does anyone see a lot of similarities to Nomar in Mayer? Nomar had a career 9.1% K rate and Mayer has been striking out almost 3x as much as that in A ball. Mayer was actually only in the 38th percentile for Z-contact% this past year, which IMO is his biggest red/yellow flag. His Z Contact was ~76%, and only 3 players in the MLB made less contact in the zone and had a wRC+ over 100 this year: Morel 68.9% 108, JD Davis 71.1% 119, and Stanton 74.7% 115. If Mayer doesn’t start making more contact in zone (he likely will, he’s very young), he’s in trouble.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 3, 2023 13:24:44 GMT -5
I know comps are pretty useless, but does anyone see a lot of similarities to Nomar in Mayer? Nomar had a career 9.1% K rate and Mayer has been striking out almost 3x as much as that in A ball. Mayer was actually only in the 38th percentile for Z-contact% this past year, which IMO is his biggest red/yellow flag. His Z Contact was ~76%, and only 3 players in the MLB made less contact in the zone and had a wRC+ over 100 this year: Morel 68.9% 108, JD Davis 71.1% 119, and Stanton 74.7 115. If Mayer doesn’t start making more contact in zone (he likely will, he’s very young), he’s in trouble. Thanks for the stats. I was talking in much more general terms, body type, athleticism, how easy the game seems to be for them, etc..
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 3, 2023 16:59:14 GMT -5
I mean, if you are saying they both are athletic shortstops, then yeah, but I'm not sure that's a comp so much as how it's supposed to look.
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Post by jmei on Feb 3, 2023 17:37:07 GMT -5
Even just size-wise, they're quite different. Mayer's got three inches on Nomar. Nomar was also never that good of a defender, especially in his later years, and I have higher hopes for Mayer on that front.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 3, 2023 18:13:02 GMT -5
I know comps are pretty useless, but does anyone see a lot of similarities to Nomar in Mayer? Nomar had a career 9.1% K rate and Mayer has been striking out almost 3x as much as that in A ball. Mayer was actually only in the 38th percentile for Z-contact% this past year, which IMO is his biggest red/yellow flag. His Z Contact was ~76%, and only 3 players in the MLB made less contact in the zone and had a wRC+ over 100 this year: Morel 68.9% 108, JD Davis 71.1% 119, and Stanton 74.7% 115. If Mayer doesn’t start making more contact in zone (he likely will, he’s very young), he’s in trouble. You absolutely can not compare these two. Of course Nomar only had a 9.1% k rate! One of his last years with the Red Sox he hit the first pitch of the AB 56% of the time! It is pretty tough to strike out if your AB only lasts one pitch…. Now if you are comparing the hype (warranted or not) before coming up to the MLB then yes. When Nomar came up, to me it was almost a forgone conclusion that he would win Rookie of the Year. I hope that is the same with Mayer.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Feb 3, 2023 19:46:34 GMT -5
Nomar had a career 9.1% K rate and Mayer has been striking out almost 3x as much as that in A ball. Mayer was actually only in the 38th percentile for Z-contact% this past year, which IMO is his biggest red/yellow flag. His Z Contact was ~76%, and only 3 players in the MLB made less contact in the zone and had a wRC+ over 100 this year: Morel 68.9% 108, JD Davis 71.1% 119, and Stanton 74.7% 115. If Mayer doesn’t start making more contact in zone (he likely will, he’s very young), he’s in trouble. You absolutely can not compare these two. Of course Nomar only had a 9.1% k rate! One of his last years with the Red Sox he hit the first pitch of the AB 56% of the time! It is pretty tough to strike out if your AB only lasts one pitch…. Now if you are comparing the hype (warranted or not) before coming up to the MLB then yes. When Nomar came up, to me it was almost a forgone conclusion that he would win Rookie of the Year. I hope that is the same with Mayer. My first year I cared enough to watch every game was 1999 luckily, so it was love at first sight. There is almost no way Mayer reaches the heights Nomar did at his peak IMO, but I hope he does.
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Post by kingstephanos on Feb 3, 2023 23:09:01 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 3, 2023 23:49:35 GMT -5
I'm not sure Marcelo will ever hit .372 or never break a bat or miss a barrel but I hope he comes close to that while staying healthier, playing better D and being more of a clubhouse leader.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 4, 2023 0:15:08 GMT -5
The Red Sox have had some great SS over the history of the franchise.
Joe Cronin is a HOFer. Xander has a shot at the HOF depending on how his Padres career plays out. I think playing at Fenway would have been more conducive to helping him toward 3000 hits and 300 plus HRs, but either way, a great career with the Sox
Pesky was more than just a great coach and ambassador. He was an OBP machine, somehow hitting over .300 while walking 100 times per year batting just ahead of Ted Williams. Vern Stephens was so underrated, an offensive monster. Check out his 1948 - 1950 stats. Rico Petrocelli set a record at the time, in 1969, for HRs by a SS in the AL. John Valentin was underrated. Rick Burleson, Everett Scott, and Freddy Parent distinguished themselves.
But none of them were Nomar. I know 1999 - 2000 was a hitters era but he still batted .357 and then .372 with power. He actually reached .400 in July of 2000. He had power and he was a good SS early on until injuries hit.
I think he's the best SS they've ever had.
Which means it would be unfair to even think of comparing Mayer to Nomar or even Xander. That said, I look forward to Mayer. Don't think hell hit as well as Nomar or X, but I do expect him to hit, field well, and show power. Maybe an all star like Corey Seager will be a good comp fir him? And that's a lofty comp for him. It'll be fun to watch Mayer develop and his best buddy Mikey Romero could soon afterwards become his DP partner.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 6, 2023 10:25:04 GMT -5
No love for Lou sitting right next to him, huh?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 6, 2023 10:55:00 GMT -5
You absolutely can not compare these two. Of course Nomar only had a 9.1% k rate! One of his last years with the Red Sox he hit the first pitch of the AB 56% of the time! It is pretty tough to strike out if your AB only lasts one pitch…. Now if you are comparing the hype (warranted or not) before coming up to the MLB then yes. When Nomar came up, to me it was almost a forgone conclusion that he would win Rookie of the Year. I hope that is the same with Mayer. My first year I cared enough to watch every game was 1999 luckily, so it was love at first sight. There is almost no way Mayer reaches the heights Nomar did at his peak IMO, but I hope he does.This is interesting, because Nomar's peak was a real hot flash. I would take Myer on, hopefully, getting a longer ride out of his talents and having more staying power. He is younger and if he gets to The Show by 21 or 22 years of age, it could be a whirlwind of exciting fandom. In that vain, I could see him being a franchise type player, assuming good progression. After having X for 8 years, it is almost too much to hope for, but I am gonna GD well hope for it, that's for sure.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 6, 2023 12:14:29 GMT -5
That hot flash itself lasted 8 years and he accumulated 40 WAR of his lifetime 44 before age 30. It is unfortunate that the body gave out. The bus looked as if it was headed to Cooperstown before it broke down.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 6, 2023 12:39:41 GMT -5
That hot flash itself lasted 8 years and he accumulated 40 WAR of his lifetime 44 before age 30. It is unfortunate that the body gave out. The bus looked as if it was headed to Cooperstown before it broke down. That pitch by Al Reyes helped that body give out, although it didnt impact the stats right away. If he hadn't got hit on the wrist I wonder how many more years his career would have had. He'd probably be in Cooperstown.
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 6, 2023 12:56:12 GMT -5
That pitch by Al Reyes helped that body give out, although it didnt impact the stats right away. If he hadn't got hit on the wrist I wonder how many more years his career would have had. He'd probably be in Cooperstown. Yeah, this is the wrist injury that gave him a 'before' and 'after' career. I moved to LA in the mid-aughts and had a lot of fun watching Dodgers teams full of Nomar, Manny, JD Drew, Bill Mueller, Derek Lowe...
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 6, 2023 17:54:21 GMT -5
That hot flash itself lasted 8 years and he accumulated 40 WAR of his lifetime 44 before age 30. It is unfortunate that the body gave out. The bus looked as if it was headed to Cooperstown before it broke down. peak Nomar was 97-2000. and then it was just very good Nomar and then, as you say, the wheels came off. It was too bad, he was so fun to watch and so easy to root for.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 6, 2023 18:02:54 GMT -5
That hot flash itself lasted 8 years and he accumulated 40 WAR of his lifetime 44 before age 30. It is unfortunate that the body gave out. The bus looked as if it was headed to Cooperstown before it broke down. peak Nomar was 97-2000. and then it was just very good Nomar and then, as you say, the wheels came off. It was too bad, he was so fun to watch and so easy to root for. "Just very good Nomar" put up 6.8 and 6.1 bWAR in 02 and 03. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I'd be willing to bet no Sox SS has topped that 6.8 since
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 3, 2023 1:37:09 GMT -5
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