SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 16, 2021 12:24:33 GMT -5
It is hard to see how the Sox make a big FA pitching sign that is a better deal than this. You are looking at either worse pitchers (the Duffy type) or guys who will cost as much or more (the old studs, Stroman). This is worrisome. To this point, here are some select steamer projections for ERA/fWAR:
Scherzer: 3.43/4.2
Verlander: 3.56/3.6 Kershaw: 3.57/3.2
Rodriguez: 3.65/3.7
How much more are Scherzer and Verlander, in particular, going to cost in AAV for a very marginal/non-existent upgrade in projected value?
Hmm, steamer is now showing a 3.83/3.5 projection for Rodriguez. Kind of weird that it should be a worse projection when he's going to a weaker division and a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. (I'm not sure, though, whether steamer takes those factors into account.)
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 16, 2021 13:19:20 GMT -5
You got a really good memory first off. I'm lucky I can remember a Red Sox game a month ago. You remembered that from 3 years ago. Still, that's 3 post-season starts you remember. Which tells me that there wasn't many post-season starts in there because the Sox didn't trust him to get multiple starts or there were better options in the rotation at the time. All kind of a knock on Eddy sort of. Even then, you can argue 1 bad. 1 good. 1 mediocre start (after you pointed out that Cora left him in long). My gut never really trusted him, but admittedly I'm not a talent evaluater. I just kind of felt Eduardo was worse than a coin flip chance of being good in the post-season when he came in. there is no one who has a better memory than Champs....i get amazed by it, honestly. I am with you, I would never be a good eyewitness. LOL. Thanks Jerry! I can't remember half the things I'm supposed to remember - my wife can vouch for that. lol But the Red Sox? Somehow my memory pulls things up.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 16, 2021 14:28:31 GMT -5
Official.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 15:33:53 GMT -5
there is no one who has a better memory than Champs....i get amazed by it, honestly. I am with you, I would never be a good eyewitness. LOL. Thanks Jerry! I can't remember half the things I'm supposed to remember - my wife can vouch for that. lol But the Red Sox? Somehow my memory pulls things up. Remembering, it always surprises me the things that I can and those I can't for the life of me. But Champs you bring up moments from 30+ years ago with the Sox that I never remembered at all. Makes me wonder if you have ever had a drink in your life, haha. You and Eric with little details from long ago, always interesting. I am beginning to think the Sox pitching staff is going to be interesting next year also. It is early yet and the prices seem reasonable for the Sox to land someone but there seems to be a lot of competition for pitching, I wonder where it is going to go. Maybe they go the trade route. I won't stop thinking about ERod and that contract until each year goes by and I watch the results. I have a feeling he is going to have great value at that price. Thor was also a favorite of mine. The Berrios deal looks reasonable to me also. Maybe we see a lot more fireworks before the new CBA.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 16, 2021 16:15:16 GMT -5
Thanks Jerry! I can't remember half the things I'm supposed to remember - my wife can vouch for that. lol But the Red Sox? Somehow my memory pulls things up. Remembering, it always surprises me the things that I can and those I can't for the life of me. But Champs you bring up moments from 30+ years ago with the Sox that I never remembered at all. Makes me wonder if you have ever had a drink in your life, haha. You and Eric with little details from long ago, always interesting. I am beginning to think the Sox pitching staff is going to be interesting next year also. It is early yet and the prices seem reasonable for the Sox to land someone but there seems to be a lot of competition for pitching, I wonder where it is going to go. Maybe they go the trade route. I won't stop thinking about ERod and that contract until each year goes by and I watch the results. I have a feeling he is going to have great value at that price. Thor was also a favorite of mine. The Berrios deal looks reasonable to me also. Maybe we see a lot more fireworks before the new CBA. Not too many drinks. I've been buzzed a few times but that's about it. Other than that I really don't drink. My liver, because of my eating habits, is kind of iffy and I also have gerds, so I can't really drink anymore even if I did want to. I often feel like I remember times of my life because of what was going on with the Red Sox. The day I got married the Sox bombed Roger Clemens and the Yankees 11-0 and Tim Wakefield struck out Aaron Boone. Of course a month later.... But then again I can't even remember what I did last weekend, so it's funny how selective memory can work without it being intentional. I agree with you - I think the Tigers will be quite happy with E-Rod. He was kind of putting it together toward the end of the season. He had that stinker in the first playoff game but he was a different E-Rod after that. Maybe if the Sox' bats hadn't gone into the tank....maybe with E-Rod pitching Game 7, the Sox could have wound up in the World Series? I have trouble believing the Sox are going to shell out big bucks for a starter. I'm thinking they try to swing a trade with Oakland or Miami for a starter and they probably add a couple of lower priced/tier guys like a Rich Hill. The only free agent I can see the Sox spending some significant money on is Carlos Rodon, although he can be an injury waiting to happen. My guess is that they try to replace E-Rod on the cheap and use the extra dollars to get a lot of pitching depth guys and guys who can populate the bullpen which needs a big overhaul.
|
|
|
Post by soxinjersey on Nov 16, 2021 23:17:16 GMT -5
Like most of you, I think, I expected the Sox to re-sign E-Rod and was disappointed to see him go for an affordable price. But, as I think about it, I am becoming more intrigued by the possibilities: would Bloom have allowed this to happen if he didn't have other options in mind? What could they be? To my mind, the current situation creates an opportunity for a transformative, long-term change to the SP staff, almost certainly through a trade.
I have assumed since the end of the season that Dalbec would go to Oakland in a package for Bassitt or Manaea. With Casas coming and Schwarber perhaps an option, Dalbec, as many here have said, seems expendable and a good fit for the A's. I would hate to see him go because his upside is so high, but he seems the best trade piece for a deal of this sort. However, with E-Rod gone, an Oakland trade does not seem like enough.
But, there is another possibility, one that most of you (and I, at first) would probably not like to imagine. Miami has many fine young pitchers. What would it take to get a Sandy Alcantara ("not on the market")? Imagine Triston Casas in Miami, a hometown boy, a fine young man, and a potential foundational piece of a good team. How much would he be worth to the Marlins? Much as I love Casas, I would be tempted to explore the possibilities. Such a trade could be very good for both teams -- and for Casas.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 17, 2021 5:19:29 GMT -5
Like most of you, I think, I expected the Sox to re-sign E-Rod and was disappointed to see him go for an affordable price. But, as I think about it, I am becoming more intrigued by the possibilities: would Bloom have allowed this to happen if he didn't have other options in mind? What could they be? To my mind, the current situation creates an opportunity for a transformative, long-term change to the SP staff, almost certainly through a trade. I have assumed since the end of the season that Dalbec would go to Oakland in a package for Bassitt or Manaea. With Casas coming and Schwarber perhaps an option, Dalbec, as many here have said, seems expendable and a good fit for the A's. I would hate to see him go because his upside is so high, but he seems the best trade piece for a deal of this sort. However, with E-Rod gone, an Oakland trade does not seem like enough. But, there is another possibility, one that most of you (and I, at first) would probably not like to imagine. Miami has many fine young pitchers. What would it take to get a Sandy Alcantara ("not on the market")? Imagine Triston Casas in Miami, a hometown boy, a fine young man, and a potential foundational piece of a good team. How much would he be worth to the Marlins? Much as I love Casas, I would be tempted to explore the possibilities. Such a trade could be very good for both teams -- and for Casas. I understand you gotta give something to get something but I'm not dealing Casas for just about anyone at this point. It'd have to be a walker Buehler or Ian Anderson deal and for obvious reasons that's not happening.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 17, 2021 7:46:59 GMT -5
Like most of you, I think, I expected the Sox to re-sign E-Rod and was disappointed to see him go for an affordable price. But, as I think about it, I am becoming more intrigued by the possibilities: would Bloom have allowed this to happen if he didn't have other options in mind? What could they be? To my mind, the current situation creates an opportunity for a transformative, long-term change to the SP staff, almost certainly through a trade. I have assumed since the end of the season that Dalbec would go to Oakland in a package for Bassitt or Manaea. With Casas coming and Schwarber perhaps an option, Dalbec, as many here have said, seems expendable and a good fit for the A's. I would hate to see him go because his upside is so high, but he seems the best trade piece for a deal of this sort. However, with E-Rod gone, an Oakland trade does not seem like enough. But, there is another possibility, one that most of you (and I, at first) would probably not like to imagine. Miami has many fine young pitchers. What would it take to get a Sandy Alcantara ("not on the market")? Imagine Triston Casas in Miami, a hometown boy, a fine young man, and a potential foundational piece of a good team. How much would he be worth to the Marlins? Much as I love Casas, I would be tempted to explore the possibilities. Such a trade could be very good for both teams -- and for Casas. I understand you gotta give something to get something but I'm not dealing Casas for just about anyone at this point. It'd have to be a walker Buehler or Ian Anderson deal and for obvious reasons that's not happening. I'm sorry I love the upside but if Washington calls Bloom up and offers Soto for him he needs to drive Casas to Washington himself.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 17, 2021 8:33:31 GMT -5
I understand you gotta give something to get something but I'm not dealing Casas for just about anyone at this point. It'd have to be a walker Buehler or Ian Anderson deal and for obvious reasons that's not happening. I'm sorry I love the upside but if Washington calls Bloom up and offers Soto for him he needs to drive Casas to Washington himself. Ha well ya you got me there, I'd obviously deal Casas in a second for a Soto, acuna, albies, ohtani type of deal but for obvious reasons that's got a .0001 percent chance of happening I'd say.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 17, 2021 14:13:31 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 17, 2021 14:44:37 GMT -5
Kind of like we figured all along with those comments. They wanted erod back at a certain $ amount and even though I feel that contract is or at least could be a bargain their analysis of him was it was too much. They obviously know more than I do so I'll trust them. It would not surprise me in the least if erod puts up a top 10 cy young season again during that contract and we're up in arms on why they didn't offer more but we'll see.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 17, 2021 14:48:41 GMT -5
Kind of like we figured all along with those comments. They wanted erod back at a certain $ amount and even though I feel that contract is or at least could be a bargain their analysis of him was it was too much. They obviously know more than I do so I'll trust them. It would not surprise me in the least if erod puts up a top 10 cy young season again during that contract and we're up in arms on why they didn't offer more but we'll see. He absolutely should since he gets to face Cleveland, KC, and Minnesota all year long
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 17, 2021 15:12:27 GMT -5
Haven't read through the entire thread. Others may have mentioned this... Once Rodriguez had rejected the qualifying offer, the team's options narrowed significantly. Here's what was at stake:
There would have been that lost draft pick to go along with the outlay necessary to compete and re-sign him. That would have been at something comparable to the Detroit offer, presumably, and probably have to include a player option. That changes the calculations and it surely played a part in the decision.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 17, 2021 15:14:52 GMT -5
That last comment does not make me feel warm and fuzzy about this team spending.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 17, 2021 15:37:32 GMT -5
Haven't read through the entire thread. Others may have mentioned this... Once Rodriguez had rejected the qualifying offer, the team's options narrowed significantly. Here's what was at stake: There would have been that lost draft pick to go along with the outlay necessary to compete and re-sign him. That would have been at something comparable to the Detroit offer, presumably, and probably have to include a player option. That changes the calculations and it surely played a part in the decision. He wouldn't have rejected the QO if he were going to re-sign. He rejected the QO and the report that he was signing with Detroit came the next morning. I'm also pretty sure that doesn't apply to re-signing your own QO guy, although I have to admit I'm not certain.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2021 15:43:42 GMT -5
Kind of like we figured all along with those comments. They wanted erod back at a certain $ amount and even though I feel that contract is or at least could be a bargain their analysis of him was it was too much. They obviously know more than I do so I'll trust them. It would not surprise me in the least if erod puts up a top 10 cy young season again during that contract and we're up in arms on why they didn't offer more but we'll see. Yup, that quote makes me think that Bloom will do the spread the money around approach. The Sox will spend money but instead of getting a 20 million guy they'll get themselves four 5 million guys instead. E-Rod at the price he signed at shouldn't have been that prohibitive, really, but they felt they have X amount of dollars to spend at that at that value he would take up too much of it. That's why I do not buy that the Sox were that interested in Syndergaard, nor do I buy that they're THAT interested in Verlander. Bloom will trade for E-Rod's replacement and use the dollars saved to get better depth for starting pitchers (Rich Hill is a real possibility) and to get relievers as the Sox will need to spend to replace the role that Ottavino had last season and they'll need to get a closer of some sort. They'll certainly bring in the projects but you have to have somebody that projects with some certainty in the pen. You can't hope to hit the lottery all the time the way the Rays seems to do when it comes to the pen. Bloom will spend, but it won't be glamorous.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Nov 17, 2021 16:29:05 GMT -5
Kind of like we figured all along with those comments. They wanted erod back at a certain $ amount and even though I feel that contract is or at least could be a bargain their analysis of him was it was too much. They obviously know more than I do so I'll trust them. It would not surprise me in the least if erod puts up a top 10 cy young season again during that contract and we're up in arms on why they didn't offer more but we'll see. Yup, that quote makes me think that Bloom will do the spread the money around approach. The Sox will spend money but instead of getting a 20 million guy they'll get themselves four 5 million guys instead.E-Rod at the price he signed at shouldn't have been that prohibitive, really, but they felt they have X amount of dollars to spend at that at that value he would take up too much of it. That's why I do not buy that the Sox were that interested in Syndergaard, nor do I buy that they're THAT interested in Verlander. Bloom will trade for E-Rod's replacement and use the dollars saved to get better depth for starting pitchers (Rich Hill is a real possibility) and to get relievers as the Sox will need to spend to replace the role that Ottavino had last season and they'll need to get a closer of some sort. They'll certainly bring in the projects but you have to have somebody that projects with some certainty in the pen. You can't hope to hit the lottery all the time the way the Rays seems to do when it comes to the pen. Bloom will spend, but it won't be glamorous.I don't see how you reach any of those conclusions with any kind of certainty. All Bloom's quotes tell us is that the market priced Eduardo higher than Bloom was willing to spend, not that every expensive player will be priced higher than Bloom is willing to spend. He's said elsewhere that they're interested in some big contracts, and that they've considered them in the past but things just didn't line up for them to pull the trigger.
There's always this effort at kremlinology to figure out what Bloom's agenda is, but I continue to maintain that the clearest indication of what he's likely to do comes from just listening to what he says, which is never very mysterious, and he's been clear that they'll be engaged in the high end free agent market (without guaranteeing that they'll make any particular sort of move).
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Nov 17, 2021 17:59:40 GMT -5
Living in Vegas and being a betting man, I always check win %. As crazy as this sounds. Red Sox went 108-62 throughout his career. This man was a master of keeping us in the game. His era was not the best but he was a great asset. He will be missed! I am in Las Vegas as well.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 17, 2021 18:43:42 GMT -5
Haven't read through the entire thread. Others may have mentioned this... Once Rodriguez had rejected the qualifying offer, the team's options narrowed significantly. Here's what was at stake: There would have been that lost draft pick to go along with the outlay necessary to compete and re-sign him. That would have been at something comparable to the Detroit offer, presumably, and probably have to include a player option. That changes the calculations and it surely played a part in the decision. He wouldn't have rejected the QO if he were going to re-sign. He rejected the QO and the report that he was signing with Detroit came the next morning. I'm also pretty sure that doesn't apply to re-signing your own QO guy, although I have to admit I'm not certain. I was taking it from this MLB description of the rule. To be clear, I was addressing what it meant to the team to have him reject the QO and then to try to re-sign him. From my interpretation, they had a draft pick at stake. But I could be reading too much into into it.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 17, 2021 19:14:41 GMT -5
I don't really know what to make of Bloom's statement. There is no way that can be considered an expensive contract. Maybe he feels that way based on an internal valuation, but he is being a bit disingenuous saying the market took them out of it. I mean, come on. That is a pretty cheap contract for a 28 year old left hander.
It gives me great pause when i think of how he will approach Devers, Bogey or any other homemade player. Not rushing to judgment, but his statement portends to a guy who has a complete aversion to paying more than what they want to.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 17, 2021 19:25:44 GMT -5
After seeing what Syndergaard and Verlander got with all their injury risk doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling that the Sox are going to be able to replace erod via free agency alone. We'll see what Gausman/stroman/Ray get but Id be shocked if it isn't 23+ million a year if Verlander and Thor got that. I'm thinking we're going to look back at erods deal as one of the biggest bargains of the offseason a year from now.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 17, 2021 20:26:29 GMT -5
After seeing what Syndergaard and Verlander got with all their injury risk doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling that the Sox are going to be able to replace erod via free agency alone. We'll see what Gausman/stroman/Ray get but Id be shocked if it isn't 23+ million a year if Verlander and Thor got that. I'm thinking we're going to look back at erods deal as one of the biggest bargains of the offseason a year from now. on the one hand you have to assume that ERod's agent spoke with all teams. Given that, he likely took what was his highest offer, absent some reason that E Rod preferred Detroit (coaching....players...etc). That those other pitchers got that value, i don't know if is related to his offer. Those are short term high AAV deals and Erod's is longer term. What would the Sox have offered ? More I think about it, it had to be the years for the contract. There is no way the Sox cant afford 16 million a year pitcher. Add: Plus they love draft picks.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Nov 18, 2021 10:32:37 GMT -5
Living in Vegas and being a betting man, I always check win %. As crazy as this sounds. Red Sox went 108-62 throughout his career. This man was a master of keeping us in the game. His era was not the best but he was a great asset. He will be missed! I am in Las Vegas as well. What side of town? Let’s get together for a Sox game this year?
|
|
|
Post by patford on Nov 19, 2021 8:50:37 GMT -5
I've got a lot more confidence in Bloom than I do my own opinions so I'm pleased the Sox let E-Rod walk. To be honest I always felt watching him pitch was agonizing so I won't miss him at all. The "unlucky"-"hurt by the Sox IF defense" argument has merit but the same could be said for the entire pitching staff at least as far as the IF defense part of the equation goes and even the "unlucky" part is defense related as it is saying a lot of balls hit off him which might have been outs ended up as hits.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 10:34:46 GMT -5
I've got a lot more confidence in Bloom than I do my own opinions so I'm pleased the Sox let E-Rod walk. To be honest I always felt watching him pitch was agonizing so I won't miss him at all. The "unlucky"-"hurt by the Sox IF defense" argument has merit but the same could be said for the entire pitching staff at least as far as the IF defense part of the equation goes and even the "unlucky" part is defense related as it is saying a lot of balls hit off him which might have been outs ended up as hits. In regards to being unlucky and how good ERod actually is. He was in the 90th percentile in hard hit % and 87th in exit velocity this past season. He also had a very high swing and miss %. Those stats all usually add up to a guy at the top of the league in standard pitching stats. He wasn't for whatever reasons. But I am with you on Bloom and the staff knowing better than I do so c'est la vie to Eduardo, good luck in Detroit. Where I expect he will do well.
|
|
|