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Post by geostorm on Mar 16, 2022 16:44:08 GMT -5
Given I came here for insight/thoughts on the Suzuki miss, but see it has devolved into a discussion on team building, by current and prior GMs, if anyone cares, you can hear directly from Chaim Bloom, tomorrow. C'ya
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Post by manfred on Mar 16, 2022 16:44:29 GMT -5
i am sorry, but this argument about DD is really sad. I appreiciate yours and JimEd's posts, but it makes no sense to say, "i am happy that we made the ALCS, but I really wanted to cut/trade some of these guys and show my teeth in the FA market". For me, the Devers signing isn't the same thing. They have just have a different set of cirucumstances, him being home grown. However, if the past is prologue, I would put it as a 50/50 proposition. it is gonna cost 250 million, at a minimum. The most he has spent is 14million or so, IIRC. It's not an argument about Dombrowski at all! Why are you and manfred reading it that way? Dombroski was a genius, okay? His valor and gumption won them the 2018 World Series singlehandedly. I'll grant you all of that. The fact remains, DD's free agent signings - every one of them a brilliant move! - used up the resources the team had to spend on big money free agents. Bloom has simply had smaller margins to play with.
All that is sort of changing this offseason (Bloom may yet make a big splash), but next season is definitely the time when we can judge Bloom's approach to big money free agency.
OK, can’t leave it: if we take Bloom at his word, he was not required to stay below the tax threshold last year. So if you believe him, that had nothing to do with DD. If secretly Bloom had been ordered to stay under a second straight year, he lied. Last year or this (and hey maybe he signs Correa and Freeman!) he has (so far) behaved like someone for whom staying under is a high priority. You can say wait until he clears contract but… he’ll still have to pay or replace X and Devers and then replace JDM et al. There are not a ton of reinforcements coming in the next two years. The problem will *never* go away.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 16, 2022 16:44:49 GMT -5
No. they aren't. he could have traded them and taken the risk of having his own roster in year 1. He literally traded one of those guys the first chance he got - a secondary piece in a rather substantial trade, if you'll recall.
In any case, are you now saying that Bloom is responsible for Sale, Eovaldi, Martinez, and Bogaerts being on the roster? So I guess he's not averse to having expensive players on the roster after all...?
OK. let's bring it back to Suzuki. 5yr / 85 million. not a big contract. Eduardo.....we need pitching...relatively inexpensive contract. Why weren't those choices made ?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 16, 2022 16:50:35 GMT -5
It's not an argument about Dombrowski at all! Why are you and manfred reading it that way? Dombroski was a genius, okay? His valor and gumption won them the 2018 World Series singlehandedly. I'll grant you all of that. The fact remains, DD's free agent signings - every one of them a brilliant move! - used up the resources the team had to spend on big money free agents. Bloom has simply had smaller margins to play with.
All that is sort of changing this offseason (Bloom may yet make a big splash), but next season is definitely the time when we can judge Bloom's approach to big money free agency.
OK, can’t leave it: if we take Bloom at his word, he was not required to stay below the tax threshold last year. So if you believe him, that had nothing to do with DD. If secretly Bloom had been ordered to stay under a second straight year, he lied. Last year or this (and hey maybe he signs Correa and Freeman!) he has (so far) behaved like someone for whom staying under is a high priority. You can say wait until he clears contract but… he’ll still have to pay or replace X and Devers and then replace JDM et al. There are not a ton of reinforcements coming in the next two years. The problem will *never* go away. Clearly the Red Sox don't manage their payroll like the Dodgers or the Steve Cohen Mets - they are merely a perennial top-5 payroll club, not reliably waaaay above the CBT. But you know perfectly well that those constraints are set by ownership.
No, I don't think Bloom is lying. I think he has instructions to not go overe the second threshold, maybe, and almost certainly has instructions to reset every three years or something like that. So he has some flexibility but an incentive to stay under the CBT if that makes sense for the team in the long run.
For reasons that have been discussed, I think they have a lot of incentive to go over the CBT this season. We'll see...
(And yeah, if anyone want to move this all to the "Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild" thread, feel free.)
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Post by incandenza on Mar 16, 2022 16:54:58 GMT -5
He literally traded one of those guys the first chance he got - a secondary piece in a rather substantial trade, if you'll recall.
In any case, are you now saying that Bloom is responsible for Sale, Eovaldi, Martinez, and Bogaerts being on the roster? So I guess he's not averse to having expensive players on the roster after all...?
OK. let's bring it back to Suzuki. 5yr / 85 million. not a big contract. Eduardo.....we need pitching...relatively inexpensive contract. Why weren't those choices made ? I was very critical of not signing Rodriguez. Suzuki I just don't know - maybe they have good reasons for not liking him at that price. In any case we just can't judge anything until this offseason is over. Maybe they'll sign Correa and that will take them right up to the second CBT threshold; and then I'll be a little more sympathic to passing on Eduardo.
But really, for the reasons I've given, we can't judge his approach to big money free agents until next offseason.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 16, 2022 17:03:22 GMT -5
OK. let's bring it back to Suzuki. 5yr / 85 million. not a big contract. Eduardo.....we need pitching...relatively inexpensive contract. Why weren't those choices made ? I was very critical of not signing Rodriguez. Suzuki I just don't know - maybe they have good reasons for not liking him at that price. In any case we just can't judge anything until this offseason is over. Maybe they'll sign Correa and that will take them right up to the second CBT threshold; and then I'll be a little more sympathic to passing on Eduardo.
But really, for the reasons I've given, we can't judge his approach to big money free agents until next offseason.
If they signed Correa that would be one helluva stealth move given that there has been no linking of Correa to the Sox whatsoever. I wouldn't count on them signing Correa. The only big name linked to the Sox is Freeman now. I honestly don't understand what reasoning they'd have for not going after Suzuki for what is mid-level money, similar to what E-Rod would have gotten. I mean, I don't think the Sox need to engage with Correa or Freeman TBH. I think they needed to make the mid-level money moves like re-signing E-Rod (instead of trying to replace him with Wacha or Hill) and getting Suzuki. I mean there are literally no RH hitting RF who are remotely appetizing beyond Suzuki so unless he flat out didn't want to play in Boston, I can't figure out why the Sox wouldn't give him what the Cubs did. I have trouble believing that the Sox didn't think his performance in Japan couldn't translate fairly well in Boston. We're talking about a guy who hit for power, average, drew walks, made reasonable contact, and played strong defense in Japan. If Suzuki doesn't translate from Japan to the US, who the hell in Japan does? The Red Sox big ticket item for this year's payroll so far is spending $7 million on Michael Wacha, a guy with a 5 ERA that they bombed in the playoffs last year (and yes I know he pitched 40 strong innings when he ditched his cutter, but other teams know this and for all we know, they adjust to his other pitches and continue to rake against him).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 16, 2022 17:05:54 GMT -5
Suzuki's 5/85 is actually 5/100 with the posting fee. Not saying that means the Sox couldn't afford him, just that's what he cost (when at the beginning of FA, many were ballparking him at 5/50 to 5/55).
I think it's important to remember that there are 29 other teams that are also trying to get better and win (okay, more like 20, but that's still a lot). Suzuki was clearly a nice fit for the Sox but I rather doubt that figured heavily in his (and his agent's) decision process. Should it have caused Chaim to bid significantly higher on him than what his estimated valuation told him? That's the Cherington playbook, not the DD playbook. (But hey, they each have more jewelry than Chaim.)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 16, 2022 17:11:44 GMT -5
I was very critical of not signing Rodriguez. Suzuki I just don't know - maybe they have good reasons for not liking him at that price. In any case we just can't judge anything until this offseason is over. Maybe they'll sign Correa and that will take them right up to the second CBT threshold; and then I'll be a little more sympathic to passing on Eduardo.
But really, for the reasons I've given, we can't judge his approach to big money free agents until next offseason.
If they signed Correa that would be one helluva stealth move given that there has been no linking of Correa to the Sox whatsoever. I wouldn't count on them signing Correa. The only big name linked to the Sox is Freeman now. I honestly don't understand what reasoning they'd have for not going after Suzuki for what is mid-level money, similar to what E-Rod would have gotten. I mean, I don't think the Sox need to engage with Correa or Freeman TBH. I think they needed to make the mid-level money moves like re-signing E-Rod (instead of trying to replace him with Wacha or Hill) and getting Suzuki. I mean there are literally no RH hitting RF who are remotely appetizing beyond Suzuki so unless he flat out didn't want to play in Boston, I can't figure out why the Sox wouldn't give him what the Cubs did. I have trouble believing that the Sox didn't think his performance in Japan couldn't translate fairly well in Boston. We're talking about a guy who hit for power, average, drew walks, made reasonable contact, and played strong defense in Japan. If Suzuki doesn't translate from Japan to the US, who the hell in Japan does?
The Red Sox big ticket item for this year's payroll so far is spending $7 million on Michael Wacha, a guy with a 5 ERA that they bombed in the playoffs last year (and yes I know he pitched 40 strong innings when he ditched his cutter, but other teams know this and for all we know, they adjust to his other pitches and continue to rake against him). I mean, it's not a particularly long list. And when you look at some of the mediocre former MLBers who have gone over there and dominated, I'd hardly call Suzuki a slam-dunk to dominate here. There's more risk to that signing than I think many are giving credence to.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 16, 2022 17:17:11 GMT -5
I was very critical of not signing Rodriguez. Suzuki I just don't know - maybe they have good reasons for not liking him at that price. In any case we just can't judge anything until this offseason is over. Maybe they'll sign Correa and that will take them right up to the second CBT threshold; and then I'll be a little more sympathic to passing on Eduardo.
But really, for the reasons I've given, we can't judge his approach to big money free agents until next offseason.
If they signed Correa that would be one helluva stealth move given that there has been no linking of Correa to the Sox whatsoever. I wouldn't count on them signing Correa. The only big name linked to the Sox is Freeman now. I honestly don't understand what reasoning they'd have for not going after Suzuki for what is mid-level money, similar to what E-Rod would have gotten. I mean, I don't think the Sox need to engage with Correa or Freeman TBH. I think they needed to make the mid-level money moves like re-signing E-Rod (instead of trying to replace him with Wacha or Hill) and getting Suzuki. I mean there are literally no RH hitting RF who are remotely appetizing beyond Suzuki so unless he flat out didn't want to play in Boston, I can't figure out why the Sox wouldn't give him what the Cubs did. I have trouble believing that the Sox didn't think his performance in Japan couldn't translate fairly well in Boston. We're talking about a guy who hit for power, average, drew walks, made reasonable contact, and played strong defense in Japan. If Suzuki doesn't translate from Japan to the US, who the hell in Japan does? The Red Sox big ticket item for this year's payroll so far is spending $7 million on Michael Wacha, a guy with a 5 ERA that they bombed in the playoffs last year (and yes I know he pitched 40 strong innings when he ditched his cutter, but other teams know this and for all we know, they adjust to his other pitches and continue to rake against him). I'm not predicting this by any means, but: 1) Sign Freeman, 2) Dalbec to LF, semi-platooning with JBJ as a RFer, with Verdugo taking the other corner OF spot... is the sort of scenario I could see Bloom being open to.
My broader point, though, is that we need to wait - just a few days! - before it makes sense to ask the questions you're asking here.
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Post by taiwansox on Mar 16, 2022 17:19:26 GMT -5
So you think that because he's not handcuffing the future, then next year they'll have a $80 million payroll? All I think is blaming Dombrowski 3 years out is absurd. And you can say look at what part of their payroll is holdover. Well, if you want to applaud last season, maybe you should be thankful for the cheap contract for Eovaldi? Signing JDM? etc etc. You can’t have it both ways. How did DD hurt last year’s team? I blame Cherington for a fruitless farm lol. The Price contract still sucks but overall DD just put us in a short-term bind not a long-term problem
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 16, 2022 17:24:43 GMT -5
If they signed Correa that would be one helluva stealth move given that there has been no linking of Correa to the Sox whatsoever. I wouldn't count on them signing Correa. The only big name linked to the Sox is Freeman now. I honestly don't understand what reasoning they'd have for not going after Suzuki for what is mid-level money, similar to what E-Rod would have gotten. I mean, I don't think the Sox need to engage with Correa or Freeman TBH. I think they needed to make the mid-level money moves like re-signing E-Rod (instead of trying to replace him with Wacha or Hill) and getting Suzuki. I mean there are literally no RH hitting RF who are remotely appetizing beyond Suzuki so unless he flat out didn't want to play in Boston, I can't figure out why the Sox wouldn't give him what the Cubs did. I have trouble believing that the Sox didn't think his performance in Japan couldn't translate fairly well in Boston. We're talking about a guy who hit for power, average, drew walks, made reasonable contact, and played strong defense in Japan. If Suzuki doesn't translate from Japan to the US, who the hell in Japan does? The Red Sox big ticket item for this year's payroll so far is spending $7 million on Michael Wacha, a guy with a 5 ERA that they bombed in the playoffs last year (and yes I know he pitched 40 strong innings when he ditched his cutter, but other teams know this and for all we know, they adjust to his other pitches and continue to rake against him). I'm not predicting this by any means, but: 1) Sign Freeman, 2) Dalbec to LF, semi-platooning with JBJ as a RFer, with Verdugo taking the other corner OF spot... is the sort of scenario I could see Bloom being open to. My broader point, though, is that we need to wait - just a few days! - before it makes sense to ask the questions you're asking here.
I guess I don't understand this Dalbec to LF stuff. The guy wasn't the most mobile 1b in the world. Why would he translate to LF? Ah, who knows. They did stick him at 2b for an inning or 2 in the post-season last year.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Mar 16, 2022 18:11:42 GMT -5
Isn't he the one that made one of the best deals getting us in a better financial position and then mucked it up with those ridiculous deals to put us back behind the eight ball?
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Post by manfred on Mar 16, 2022 18:23:54 GMT -5
Isn't he the one that made one of the best deals getting us in a better financial position and then mucked it up with those ridiculous deals to put us back behind the eight ball? I don’t think the Barnes extension was *that* bad.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 16, 2022 20:17:10 GMT -5
A little late to this, but please let's stick to Suzuki in this thread. There is a thread for discussing Bloom generally, as well as a thread for discussing free agency.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2022 23:32:47 GMT -5
A little late to this, but please let's stick to Suzuki in this thread. There is a thread for discussing Bloom generally, as well as a thread for discussing free agency. Suzuki gone elsewhere….deep six the thread😞
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 17, 2022 0:02:01 GMT -5
He literally traded one of those guys the first chance he got - a secondary piece in a rather substantial trade, if you'll recall.
In any case, are you now saying that Bloom is responsible for Sale, Eovaldi, Martinez, and Bogaerts being on the roster? So I guess he's not averse to having expensive players on the roster after all...?
OK. let's bring it back to Suzuki. 5yr / 85 million. not a big contract. Eduardo.....we need pitching...relatively inexpensive contract. Why weren't those choices made ? 5/85 is a big contract for a player who has never played an inning in MLB. It's also way more than any of the projections I saw for Suzuki's contract. I was a big proponent of signing him, but at 5/85 I'm not crushed we missed out on him. I'd be happier with a Wil Myers + prospect trade; my dream is to snatch up Campusano with Myers and hopefully solve both our long term catcher and corner OF problems at once. Myers' cap hit isn't even that bad iirc - I heard $13-14 million. I would have preferred re-signing Erod, but I think it's also fair to conclude that we could build a staff more affordably and also collect a pick for Erod. I was pretty happy with how the pitching staff had shaken out until Sale's injury. Now things do look gloomier. We'll see how things shake out. At the end of the day, though, I think it's pointless to complain about what moves were or weren't made when we're still in the offseason FA rush and Bloom has specifically stated that he's pursuing deals and will be looking into extensions as well.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 17, 2022 1:57:47 GMT -5
The warm weather cities have such an advantage.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 17, 2022 3:56:44 GMT -5
5/85 is a big contract for a player who has never played an inning in MLB. It's also way more than any of the projections I saw for Suzuki's contract. I was a big proponent of signing him, but at 5/85 I'm not crushed we missed out on him. I'd be happier with a Wil Myers + prospect trade; my dream is to snatch up Campusano with Myers and hopefully solve both our long term catcher and corner OF problems at once. Myers' cap hit isn't even that bad iirc - I heard $13-14 million. I would have preferred re-signing Erod, but I think it's also fair to conclude that we could build a staff more affordably and also collect a pick for Erod. I was pretty happy with how the pitching staff had shaken out until Sale's injury. Now things do look gloomier. We'll see how things shake out. At the end of the day, though, I think it's pointless to complain about what moves were or weren't made when we're still in the offseason FA rush and Bloom has specifically stated that he's pursuing deals and will be looking into extensions as well. maybe we are just talking semantics, but I don't see 5/85 as a big contract. I agree, it has greater risk because the player hasn't played in ML's. However, he has been a top player in the Japan league. Appropriating 17 mill / year into the Sox payroll isn't that significant, or should i say wasn't significant prior to the Bloom leadership.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 17, 2022 6:10:00 GMT -5
I would have gone 5-75 but I am just a fanboy dummy. Very very disappointed. Dave Cameron on Rusney Castillo: "If he’s somewhere between Davis and Victorino (career ISO of .154, wRC+ of 106), and he can actually play center field, then [Rusney Castillo] should project as something close to a +3 WAR player, depending on how good of a defender he is and whether he can add any value on the bases. The six years will likely cover his age-28 through age-33 seasons, so even with some drop-off in value at the end of the deal, projecting something like +15 WAR from Castillo over the next six years doesn’t seem unreasonable. That would put this price at around $5 million per win, and there’s no draft pick tax for signing Castillo like there would be for a similar Major League free agent." blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-sign-rusney-castillo/If Suzuki doesn't succeed then we can all feel better but I think he is going to have an OPS >850 and play good D. I wish him the best but would feel better if he didn't selfishly, I don't want remorse over losing out. I have always felt like the back story on Castillo was tied to Jose Abreu. The Sox had Napoli and were in the WS hunt in 2013 when Abreu was posted and I think the Sox stayed out of it because they didn't want to upset the apple cart with Napoli at the time. Then Abreu turned out to be great and Napoli didn't so when Castillo was available they went all in. Obviously just speculation but I remember connecting those dots at the time.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,821
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Post by mobaz on Mar 17, 2022 6:15:00 GMT -5
One of the benefits of being a top-salary team is that you can make mistakes and it doesn't break you. We have consistently done that in the past.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 17, 2022 6:39:59 GMT -5
Thoughts.
Suzuki could end up being just ok in which case 75 million is a lot of wasted money.
The offseason is not over.
The DD vs Chaim debate is not all that interesting.
That thought of Dalbec to LF and Freeman at 1st is an interesting one.
A stress fracture for Chris Sale really stinks and pushes the idea of another top arm.
Chaim needs to get in on the A's fire sale.
Casas and Duran could get more of a chance to develop on a team that isn't in an all out win now mode. Dalbec and others for that matter also as we have seen how hard it can be to play rookies when every game counts. That logic would make competing and developing at the same time a difficult task, especially given how the jump from AAA to the majors has been so hard lately. It is a high wire task.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 17, 2022 7:18:17 GMT -5
***WARNING*** Complete useless comment to follow.
I have this feeling that Suzuki is going to be the type of player that either completely out-performs, or underperforms his contract......which I suppose makes this deal as insignificant as most.
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 17, 2022 7:29:54 GMT -5
5/85 is a big contract for a player who has never played an inning in MLB. It's also way more than any of the projections I saw for Suzuki's contract. I was a big proponent of signing him, but at 5/85 I'm not crushed we missed out on him. I'd be happier with a Wil Myers + prospect trade; my dream is to snatch up Campusano with Myers and hopefully solve both our long term catcher and corner OF problems at once. Myers' cap hit isn't even that bad iirc - I heard $13-14 million. I would have preferred re-signing Erod, but I think it's also fair to conclude that we could build a staff more affordably and also collect a pick for Erod. I was pretty happy with how the pitching staff had shaken out until Sale's injury. Now things do look gloomier. We'll see how things shake out. At the end of the day, though, I think it's pointless to complain about what moves were or weren't made when we're still in the offseason FA rush and Bloom has specifically stated that he's pursuing deals and will be looking into extensions as well. maybe we are just talking semantics, but I don't see 5/85 as a big contract. I agree, it has greater risk because the player hasn't played in ML's. However, he has been a top player in the Japan league. Appropriating 17 mill / year into the Sox payroll isn't that significant, or should i say wasn't significant prior to the Bloom leadership. This has always been a significant contract; pick pretty much any recent Sox team and that'd be in the richest maybe 4-8 deals on the team. The goal of any GM is to put the most talent on the field for your dollar now and going forward. If a prospective signing is looking high-risk, low-reward deal because the price is higher than the expected production would dictate, you don't sign that player. Via ZiPS, Fangraphs projected 5/83 for Suzuki, but it's inherently going to be imprecise since he's coming from another league. This makes it high risk, and Bloom may not believe the reward is high enough to justify that risk. 5/83 is also way more than any other projections I have seen for him. A lot of my interest came from the projections that had him more like 5/55.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 17, 2022 9:55:02 GMT -5
He's basically priced as a 2 WAR player through his prime years. (Bear in mind he's younger than most free agents.) Doesn't seem especially expensive to me. Though he probably has a higher potential of totally washing out than the typical free agent; maybe he never can reach that major league cheese...
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Post by threeifbaerga on Mar 17, 2022 10:31:36 GMT -5
***WARNING*** Complete useless comment to follow. I have this feeling that Suzuki is going to be the type of player that either completely out-performs, or underperforms his contract......which I suppose makes this deal as insignificant as most.
Woah save those kinds of takes for ESPN!
Just kidding, love the disclaimer.
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