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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2021 13:01:25 GMT -5
I don't think anyone is giving up on Duran. I still think he will be a viable major leaguer starter at some point, it's just that you have to give something to get something. It’s not just the 107 MLB ABs, in 242 AAA PAs he has a mediocre contact% on swings of 67.8%. Speedsters tend to get overrated by prospects communities (See Jimenez, Gilberto) Valid point and definitely some cause for concern the way he looked in his limited time. As I said I'm still not giving up on him but I would also trade him in a heartbeat if he can return someone like Montas. I personally don't classify him as a straight speedster as he showed some serious pop the last few years in the minor but as you stated if he can't make contact regularly enough for the speed and power combo to play than he's probably never anything more than a 4th OF type and with how he looked in CF I don't see him sticking there either. So it wouldn't surprise me if his ceiling is of a platoon corner outfielder since he's had plenty of time to work on his defense in CF and it doesn't seem to be near the level a big league team would want in CF.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2021 14:43:46 GMT -5
Could be posturing to raise the cost. They have bigger fish to fry with all those bloated contracts and Judge coming due. The Sox also have a high end reliever/closer they need to acquire. They have a Short Stop playing out of position. There's also the complicated Devers extension. The Sox have similar problems. Um, we're talking about Suzuki. The Red Sox need a RH RF more than any team going after Suzuki.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2021 14:45:40 GMT -5
It’s crazy how everyone wants this man over Schwarber. I’m blown away. I want both, but Suzuki is more needed as a RH RF who can field. I don't want Verdugo in RF.
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 10, 2021 15:45:18 GMT -5
I don't think anyone is giving up on Duran. I still think he will be a viable major leaguer starter at some point, it's just that you have to give something to get something. Itâs not just the 107 MLB ABs, in 242 AAA PAs he has a mediocre contact% on swings of 67.8%. Speedsters tend to get overrated by prospects communities (See Jimenez, Gilberto) The kid flew threw the system. Let him grow and get better. Full offseason and a full season of regular ABs before you can make an opinion on him. Baseball is a game of patience and it seems not many Red Sox fans have that right now. I think if we sign Suzuki that means Kiké who was wonderful in CF is now our regular day 2nd baseman unless weâre going into the season with 5 OF.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2021 15:49:57 GMT -5
Itâs not just the 107 MLB ABs, in 242 AAA PAs he has a mediocre contact% on swings of 67.8%. Speedsters tend to get overrated by prospects communities (See Jimenez, Gilberto) The kid flew threw the system. Let him grow and get better. Full offseason and a full season of regular ABs before you can make an opinion on him. Baseball is a game of patience and it seems not many Red Sox fans have that right now. I think if we sign Suzuki that means Kiké who was wonderful in CF is now our regular day 2nd baseman unless weâre going into the season with 5 OF. How would they have 5 OF? Assuming Suzuki or another OF signing I count 4. Verdugo/Hernandez/acquisition/jbj. Duran if still in the organization is more than likely starting the season in AAA.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Dec 10, 2021 17:14:55 GMT -5
My guess is they land Seiya once the lockout ends - I don't think Bloom makes the Renfroe deal without adding another impact righty bat. Have it be Suzuki or Story I believe we end up with another hitter at some point before the season starts, whenever that may be.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 10, 2021 17:28:35 GMT -5
The Sox also have a high end reliever/closer they need to acquire. They have a Short Stop playing out of position. There's also the complicated Devers extension. The Sox have similar problems. Um, we're talking about Suzuki. The Red Sox need a RH RF more than any team going after Suzuki. Voice of Reason brought up payroll commitments of the Yankees and how it could affect the Yankees pursuit of Suzuki. I mentioned that the Sox also have a lot of payroll commitments and future payroll commitments. The Blue Jay's are also a really interesting team to watch. They didn't even need Corey Seager, but they made a significant offer according to Passan and were very much in on him. They're the other team to look out for. The Jay's are in talent acquisition mode here. The Jay's are the 3rd and final team really involved in Suzuki.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2021 17:30:22 GMT -5
Um, we're talking about Suzuki. The Red Sox need a RH RF more than any team going after Suzuki. Voice of Reason brought up payroll commitments of the Yankees and how it could affect the Yankees pursuit of Suzuki. I mentioned that the Sox also have a lot of payroll commitments and future payroll commitments. The Blue Jay's are also a really interesting team to watch. They didn't even need Corey Seager, but they made a significant offer according to Passan and were very much in on him. They're the other team to look out for. The Jay's are in talent acquisition mode here. The Red Sox don't have a lot of future payroll commitments as of this moment though. Yes they are going to have some of their best players to replace but that's not a payroll commitment.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 10, 2021 17:33:14 GMT -5
My guess is they land Seiya once the lockout ends - I don't think Bloom makes the Renfroe deal without adding another impact righty bat. Have it be Suzuki or Story I believe we end up with another hitter at some point before the season starts, whenever that may be. This is what I want to start the season. Story or Correa and Suzuki or Conforto. You improve the infield defense dramatically (which makes pitching better). You increase power and depth in the lineup. Gives you the options to trade for pitching.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 10, 2021 17:34:38 GMT -5
Voice of Reason brought up payroll commitments of the Yankees and how it could affect the Yankees pursuit of Suzuki. I mentioned that the Sox also have a lot of payroll commitments and future payroll commitments. The Blue Jay's are also a really interesting team to watch. They didn't even need Corey Seager, but they made a significant offer according to Passan and were very much in on him. They're the other team to look out for. The Jay's are in talent acquisition mode here. The Red Sox don't have a lot of future payroll commitments as of this moment though. Yes they are going to have some of their best players to replace but that's not a payroll commitment. Yes if you're foregoing the extentions of Xander and/or Devers, then signing Suzuki isn't a big deal at all.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2021 17:37:49 GMT -5
The Red Sox don't have a lot of future payroll commitments as of this moment though. Yes they are going to have some of their best players to replace but that's not a payroll commitment. Yes if you're foregoing the extentions of Xander and/or Devers, then signing Suzuki isn't a big deal at all. As of right now the only two players under contract for the 2023 season are sale and barnes. To say they have a lot of payroll commitments is factually incorrect. You really don't think they could fit Suzuki a Xander and or Devers extension? They'd still probably be only at about 110ish million in commitments for the 2023 season if they do sign both of them to extensions.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 10, 2021 18:09:13 GMT -5
Yes if you're foregoing the extentions of Xander and/or Devers, then signing Suzuki isn't a big deal at all. As of right now the only two players under contract for the 2023 season are sale and barnes. To say they have a lot of payroll commitments is factually incorrect. You really don't think they could fit Suzuki a Xander and or Devers extension? They'd still probably be only at about 110ish million in commitments for the 2023 season if they do sign both of them to extensions. Yes the Sox should easily fit Suzuki. Sale. Xander. Devers in with future payroll commitments. The point is all 3 of the serious bidders for Suzuki can say the same. The Yankees have a ton of flexibility with only Cole, Stanton, Hicks on their long-term payroll commitments. The Jay's only have 96 million committed as of right now. The team that comes away with Suzuki won't be "the team that needs him the most in the Sox because they have the biggest need out of all them." It will be the team who values Suzuki the most and is willing to go the extra yard to sign him. Really this is one of the true first tests in free agency in the Chaim Bloom ERA in Boston.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2021 18:14:07 GMT -5
As of right now the only two players under contract for the 2023 season are sale and barnes. To say they have a lot of payroll commitments is factually incorrect. You really don't think they could fit Suzuki a Xander and or Devers extension? They'd still probably be only at about 110ish million in commitments for the 2023 season if they do sign both of them to extensions. Yes the Sox should easily fit Suzuki. Sale. Xander. Devers in with future payroll commitments. The point is all 3 of the serious bidders for Suzuki can say the same. The Yankees have a ton of flexibility with only Cole, Stanton, Hicks on their long-term payroll commitments. The Jay's only have 96 million committed as of right now. The team that comes away with Suzuki won't be "the team that needs him the most in the Sox because they have the biggest need out of all them." It will be the team who values Suzuki the most and is willing to go the extra yard to sign him. Really this is one of the true first tests in free agency in the Chaim Bloom ERA in Boston. Okay I don't want to keep a back and forth on this but you literally said the Red sox have a lot of payroll commitments which is incorrect and that's what I was mainly pointing out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 10, 2021 18:23:32 GMT -5
As of right now the only two players under contract for the 2023 season are sale and barnes. To say they have a lot of payroll commitments is factually incorrect. You really don't think they could fit Suzuki a Xander and or Devers extension? They'd still probably be only at about 110ish million in commitments for the 2023 season if they do sign both of them to extensions. Yes the Sox should easily fit Suzuki. Sale. Xander. Devers in with future payroll commitments. The point is all 3 of the serious bidders for Suzuki can say the same. The Yankees have a ton of flexibility with only Cole, Stanton, Hicks on their long-term payroll commitments. The Jay's only have 96 million committed as of right now. The team that comes away with Suzuki won't be "the team that needs him the most in the Sox because they have the biggest need out of all them." It will be the team who values Suzuki the most and is willing to go the extra yard to sign him. Really this is one of the true first tests in free agency in the Chaim Bloom ERA in Boston. I think the bolded part is the bottom line. I believe the Sox are extremely interested in Suzuki, but yeah, to say he's earmarked for the Red Sox would be inaccurate. To say that the Sox can't be the highest bidder for him isn't accurate, but it is possible that's the case. It's also possible that even if they are, he doesn't want to play in Boston. Who knows? All you can say is...they have a shot....let's hope for the best.....and hope this damn freeze ends before the superbowl. Can you imagine if the freeze drags into late Feb or beyond? Once they get things settled, it will be a free-for-all for free agent signings and trades. I'd imagine there might be some GMs discussing potential trades with other GMs during this freeze? I'm not sure it's allowed but maybe that's happening? Either way, it's going to be crazy if this thing drags on, ends, and they have to complete their teams in time for spring training in rapid order.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 10, 2021 19:29:00 GMT -5
Yes the Sox should easily fit Suzuki. Sale. Xander. Devers in with future payroll commitments. The point is all 3 of the serious bidders for Suzuki can say the same. The Yankees have a ton of flexibility with only Cole, Stanton, Hicks on their long-term payroll commitments. The Jay's only have 96 million committed as of right now. The team that comes away with Suzuki won't be "the team that needs him the most in the Sox because they have the biggest need out of all them." It will be the team who values Suzuki the most and is willing to go the extra yard to sign him. Really this is one of the true first tests in free agency in the Chaim Bloom ERA in Boston. I think the bolded part is the bottom line. I believe the Sox are extremely interested in Suzuki, but yeah, to say he's earmarked for the Red Sox would be inaccurate. To say that the Sox can't be the highest bidder for him isn't accurate, but it is possible that's the case. It's also possible that even if they are, he doesn't want to play in Boston. Who knows? All you can say is...they have a shot....let's hope for the best.....and hope this damn freeze ends before the superbowl. Can you imagine if the freeze drags into late Feb or beyond? Once they get things settled, it will be a free-for-all for free agent signings and trades. I'd imagine there might be some GMs discussing potential trades with other GMs during this freeze? I'm not sure it's allowed but maybe that's happening? Either way, it's going to be crazy if this thing drags on, ends, and they have to complete their teams in time for spring training in rapid order. Yeah they got to be talking trade and theoretical movements with each other (the GMs). What else can they do at this point? I think teams are actually talking salary, number of years (length), and overall dollars with Suzuki right now, too. He's not part of the MLBPA yet, they just can't put pen to paper. Hopefully the Freeze doesn't go past the first week of February or MLB is in bad shape. I don't even think the two sides are talking right now. Frustrating. MLB and MLBPA needs to find negotiators that can peacefully talk terms, whether they agree or disagree. They haven't gotten along in over a decade. Add- Yeah we have no idea how Bloom will operate with payroll and Free Agents. It's a complete unknown coming from Tampa. I think he can flex financial muscles, but will he is the question.
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 11, 2021 1:26:01 GMT -5
As of right now the only two players under contract for the 2023 season are sale and barnes. To say they have a lot of payroll commitments is factually incorrect. You really don't think they could fit Suzuki a Xander and or Devers extension? They'd still probably be only at about 110ish million in commitments for the 2023 season if they do sign both of them to extensions. Yes the Sox should easily fit Suzuki. Sale. Xander. Devers in with future payroll commitments. The point is all 3 of the serious bidders for Suzuki can say the same. The Yankees have a ton of flexibility with only Cole, Stanton, Hicks on their long-term payroll commitments. The Jay's only have 96 million committed as of right now. The team that comes away with Suzuki won't be "the team that needs him the most in the Sox because they have the biggest need out of all them." It will be the team who values Suzuki the most and is willing to go the extra yard to sign him. Really this is one of the true first tests in free agency in the Chaim Bloom ERA in Boston. This is one of the true first tests? The man went out and got Kiké and Renfroe on cheap deals last offseason and look what we got out/for them. We went from a top 5 pick to 2 wins away from a W/S. This isnât a test. This is on Suzuki. Do you want to play in Fenway, where weâve had a ton of Japanese players and know how to treat them, in a ballpark that fits you the best or play in Yankee stadium, LH ballpark with a team not ready to compete for a championship, or Toronto. Come to the states strictly for a paycheck. No fame, not much tv time. Thatâs what it comes down to. Iâm sure all offers are going to be very similar.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 11, 2021 3:40:00 GMT -5
Yes the Sox should easily fit Suzuki. Sale. Xander. Devers in with future payroll commitments. The point is all 3 of the serious bidders for Suzuki can say the same. The Yankees have a ton of flexibility with only Cole, Stanton, Hicks on their long-term payroll commitments. The Jay's only have 96 million committed as of right now. The team that comes away with Suzuki won't be "the team that needs him the most in the Sox because they have the biggest need out of all them." It will be the team who values Suzuki the most and is willing to go the extra yard to sign him. Really this is one of the true first tests in free agency in the Chaim Bloom ERA in Boston. This is one of the true first tests? The man went out and got Kiké and Renfroe on cheap deals last offseason and look what we got out/for them. We went from a top 5 pick to 2 wins away from a W/S. This isnât a test. This is on Suzuki. Do you want to play in Fenway, where weâve had a ton of Japanese players and know how to treat them, in a ballpark that fits you the best or play in Yankee stadium, LH ballpark with a team not ready to compete for a championship, or Toronto. Come to the states strictly for a paycheck. No fame, not much tv time. Thatâs what it comes down to. Iâm sure all offers are going to be very similar. Yes. This is Chaim's first bidding war. Kiké and Renfroe were not bidding wars.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 11, 2021 10:07:12 GMT -5
This is one of the true first tests? The man went out and got Kiké and Renfroe on cheap deals last offseason and look what we got out/for them. We went from a top 5 pick to 2 wins away from a W/S. This isnât a test. This is on Suzuki. Do you want to play in Fenway, where weâve had a ton of Japanese players and know how to treat them, in a ballpark that fits you the best or play in Yankee stadium, LH ballpark with a team not ready to compete for a championship, or Toronto. Come to the states strictly for a paycheck. No fame, not much tv time. Thatâs what it comes down to. Iâm sure all offers are going to be very similar. Yes. This is Chaim's first bidding war. Kiké and Renfroe were not bidding wars. That is a good point, we don't really know how Bloom will handle himself in a potential contentious bidding war for a sought after player such as Suzuki. Will he stick to whatever $ figure he has in mind and not go 1 penny more? Will he drop the hammer and outbid everyone for a player he might see as a potential great fit to the lineup and defensively? Will he let the thought that I really don't want to face this guy for the next 5 years or so 20 times a year if he signs with a rival because he sees Suzuki as that good of a player? All questions we'll have to wait and speculate on quite a bit longer due to the lockout unfortunately. Edit: There's also the rather large variable that maybe Suzuki isn't going to be motivated by the most dollars and is more interested in the recruiting pitch. Another question, can Bloom outrecruit the other teams? I'll say again my preference for the OF acquisition is Suzuki so I hope he can get it done one way or another.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 11, 2021 11:34:06 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 11, 2021 11:54:26 GMT -5
Funny to me the link says he "shunned" the Red sox. It's stupid social media it likely means nothing. If anything it's probably a response to last week when some were pointing out how he was only following the Red sox. Guess with the lockout folks are going to try and drum up stories though.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 11, 2021 12:03:21 GMT -5
Itâs crazy how everyone wants this man over Schwarber. Iâm blown away. I'm honestly surprised in the other direction. I have no interest in Schwarber unless he signs for way less than his projected contract, but there are tons of people who want to bring him back. Reasons against:
1) His bat was awesome in 2021, but it was also a career year for him. He only averaged a 113 OPS+ (.230/.336/.480) with the Cubs from 2015-2020 and then dropped a 148 OPS+ (.266/.374/.554) out of nowhere last year. I don't want to pay him with the assumption that 2021 Schwarber is just who he is now. It feels like there's tons of room for regression there and no room for improvement.
2) Schwarber is a weak defender in LF. He would force Verdugo to RF in 2022 too, so he'd hurt our OF defense at both corners.
People keep saying we could just survive this year with him in the field and then slot him into DH starting in 2023, but...
3) ...after 2022, tons of key players are going to hit free agency (Xander, Kiké, Eovaldi, Martinez, Vazquez/Plawecki, possibly Sale if he has a throwback season). This is not a year we should be just making due with a subpar alignment in order to fill a possible hole in 2023. This is a year where we should be in an optimal alignment and competing for a playoff spot. Yes, if Schwarber hits like 2021 any team will find a place for him, but signing him with the expectation that his bat will be good enough to justify both the contract and a poor defensive alignment seems foolhardy. This is extra true when you consider that the Sox are probably going to be bidding against 15 DH-less NL teams, many of which would be able to slot Schwarber directly into DH and should therefore expect to get more value out of him than Boston.
4) ...DH is the only position on the diamond you don't actually need to fill. Worst case we can't find a Martinez replacement in FA and we just maintain good depth on the MLB roster and cycle people through DH. That would be a fine solution, and could even provide extra value by improving team defense if we mostly cycle weak defenders like Bogaerts (if he's back in 2023), Devers, and Dalbec through DH.
He seems like a great guy and I enjoyed watching him in 2021, but I could not care less lol.
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Meanwhile, Suzuki looks like a perfect fit. Solid defense in a position of need, RH outfield bat (evens us out, since it's currently Kiké (RH), Verdugo (LH), and JBJ (LH)), in his prime at 27 (a year and a half younger than Schwarber too), good power, amazing eye, and all that at a reasonable AAV. The only knock on him is the fact that no one knows for sure how well his game will translate to MLB. Given his production in Japan, though, I would take that risk 10 times out of 10 anywhere close to his Ben Clemens and Fangraphs Crowdsource projections of 4/40 to 4/45. Worst case he's an okay bat with solid defense in RF. Best case, he's Matsui 2.0 with solid defense in RF. Who knows where he ends up falling, but I think the odds of him overperforming a contract like that are high. His ZiPS projections for next season are a 118 OPS+ (.281/.350/.469). Four seasons of that for 4/40ish, with some risk, but also with upside for more? Sign me up.
People throw out guys like Yoshi Tsutsugo as reasons for skepticism, but Suzuki's numbers in the NPB are a lot better than Tsutsugo's were (Suzuki: .315/.414/.570, .85BB/K; Tsutsugo: .285/.382/.528, .64 BB/K) and Suzuki is also a good defender (I heard he won four gold gloves in RF over in Japan).
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 11, 2021 12:12:35 GMT -5
As of right now the only two players under contract for the 2023 season are sale and barnes. To say they have a lot of payroll commitments is factually incorrect. You really don't think they could fit Suzuki a Xander and or Devers extension? They'd still probably be only at about 110ish million in commitments for the 2023 season if they do sign both of them to extensions. Yes the Sox should easily fit Suzuki. Sale. Xander. Devers in with future payroll commitments. The point is all 3 of the serious bidders for Suzuki can say the same. The Yankees have a ton of flexibility with only Cole, Stanton, Hicks on their long-term payroll commitments. The Jay's only have 96 million committed as of right now. The team that comes away with Suzuki won't be "the team that needs him the most in the Sox because they have the biggest need out of all them."It will be the team who values Suzuki the most and is willing to go the extra yard to sign him. Really this is one of the true first tests in free agency in the Chaim Bloom ERA in Boston. Value and need go hand in hand, though. You would have to be a lot higher on a player than all other suitors in order to sign them when they don't fit as well in your roster.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 11, 2021 12:18:27 GMT -5
Funny to me the link says he "shunned" the Red sox. It's stupid social media it likely means nothing. If anything it's probably a response to last week when some were pointing out how he was only following the Red sox. Guess with the lockout folks are going to try and drum up stories though. The article also says that he has incredible power as a lefty. I thought that he was a right handed hitter exclusively.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 11, 2021 12:22:11 GMT -5
Funny to me the link says he "shunned" the Red sox. It's stupid social media it likely means nothing. If anything it's probably a response to last week when some were pointing out how he was only following the Red sox. Guess with the lockout folks are going to try and drum up stories though. The article also says that he has incredible power as a lefty. I thought that he was a right handed hitter exclusively. I'm almost certain he is and after clicking on the link that looks like some Yankee fan site that doesn't know what the heck their talking about. Shame on me for giving them a click.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2021 12:28:44 GMT -5
Funny to me the link says he "shunned" the Red sox. It's stupid social media it likely means nothing. If anything it's probably a response to last week when some were pointing out how he was only following the Red sox. Guess with the lockout folks are going to try and drum up stories though. No, the social media thing is overblown. Still, I know he's supposedly earmarked for the Red Sox given the clean fit, but it's one of those things I won't believe until I see it. This is Bloom's first go around with trying to compete for a high profile free agent that's not of the bargain basement variety. I wonder how far he'll go to secure the player. I just remember the competition between the Sox and Yankees for players like Jose Contreras, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Anthony Rizzo that looked bound for Boston but wound up in pinstripes instead. In some cases it was just as well. The only one that went Boston's way that I can remember is when the Sox got Moncada over the Yankees. I dont recall the Yankees having a great interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Doesn't mean Suzuki won't wind up in Boston, and I know there is a different Boston GM and different Yankee ownership, but I'm not going to count my chickens..
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