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Post by baseball3 on Dec 7, 2021 20:09:49 GMT -5
If there were a 'None of the above' option for this poll, I would have picked that one. Actually, I'd change my answer if there were an option of: Xander beyond 2022 Where's he playing? Hopefully not short stop.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2021 11:27:10 GMT -5
Actually, I'd change my answer if there were an option of: Xander beyond 2022 Where's he playing? Hopefully not short stop. Shortstop until Mayer is ready. Unrelated point - I keep seeing mentions of Story on a 1 year contract like Semien. Seems like a 2nd round pick is a steep price for a one year deal.
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Post by joshuacoffee on Dec 8, 2021 12:58:52 GMT -5
Where's he playing? Hopefully not short stop. Shortstop until Mayer is ready. Unrelated point - I keep seeing mentions of Story on a 1 year contract like Semien. Seems like a 2nd round pick is a steep price for a one year deal. I mean, I guess there's a small chance that Mayer is up in less than three years, but that seems too unlikely to plan for. The kid is still 18 (about to turn 19) and only has 1/2 a year of rookie level pro ball (and no college ball) under his belt. So three years from now you're still ok with X at short? Being generous, that seems like a dicey proposition. I don't disagree all that much with you on signing X rather than Story or Correa. I love X and can see an argument for spending (hopefully a little less) on him rather than one of these players and figuring out short with some of the future money that you save by not resigning Schwarber this year and letting JDM walk next year, but planning on X being a shortstop for at least three more years doesn't seem prudent. This next year, assuming that he is still playing short, seems likely to be X's last year at the position. And really, I'm not sure how much his next contract is helped by playing a bad shortstop rather than demonstrating that he can be a competent or better 2b or 3b. I suppose he probably believes that he can be better than he was last year, athletes naturally and consistently overestimate themselves as they age, but I can't see any reason to believe he'll be better a better fielder. Of course, the real disaster would be moving and still being bad in the field, so maybe the best thing for him would be to have the highest possible ceiling and eliminate the lowest possible floor, however unlikely it is that either of those are the outcome. I would think that the most likely good scenario is that X can show himself as a good 2b or 3b, proving to teams that they won't have to put him out in left, or worse, DH him. To put into perspective how valuable a reasonably good second baseman who can hit like X is, imagine what the Sox would give for that right now.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2021 13:04:22 GMT -5
Shortstop until Mayer is ready. Unrelated point - I keep seeing mentions of Story on a 1 year contract like Semien. Seems like a 2nd round pick is a steep price for a one year deal. I mean, I guess there's a small chance that Mayer is up in less than three years, but that seems too unlikely to plan for. The kid is still 18 (about to turn 19) and only has 1/2 a year of rookie level pro ball (and no college ball) under his belt. So three years from now you're still ok with X at short? Being generous, that seems like a dicey proposition. I don't disagree all that much with you on signing X rather than Story or Correa. I love X and can see an argument for spending (hopefully a little less) on him rather than one of these players and figuring out short with some of the future money that you save by not resigning Schwarber this year and letting JDM walk next year, but planning on X being a shortstop for at least three more years doesn't seem prudent. This next year, assuming that he is still playing short, seems likely to be X's last year at the position. And really, I'm not sure how much his next contract is helped by playing a bad shortstop rather than demonstrating that he can be a competent or better 2b or 3b. I suppose he probably believes that he can be better than he was last year, athletes naturally and consistently overestimate themselves as they age, but I can't see any reason to believe he'll be better a better fielder. Of course, the real disaster would be moving and still being bad in the field, so maybe the best thing for him would be to have the highest possible ceiling and eliminate the lowest possible floor, however unlikely it is that either of those are the outcome. I would think that the most likely good scenario is that X can show himself as a good 2b or 3b, proving to teams that they won't have to put him out in left, or worse, DH him. To put into perspective how valuable a reasonably good second baseman who can hit like X is, imagine what the Sox would give for that right now. Three years from now, I'm ok with still having Xander on the team. If Mayer isn't ready or a bust, there will be other shortstops available and Xander can move to 2B or LF. Maybe even RF. There seems to be some narrative that Xander is a butcher at SS. He's slightly below average at worst. He's above average for UZR. But he's also had a wRC+ of 133, 141, 130 and 130 the last 4 years. That consistency is very valuable. Correa's wRC+ for the last 4 years: 101, 142, 96, 134
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Post by joshuacoffee on Dec 8, 2021 13:06:10 GMT -5
I can get behind a plan like that, for the right price of course.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 8, 2021 16:04:54 GMT -5
I mean, I guess there's a small chance that Mayer is up in less than three years, but that seems too unlikely to plan for. The kid is still 18 (about to turn 19) and only has 1/2 a year of rookie level pro ball (and no college ball) under his belt. So three years from now you're still ok with X at short? Being generous, that seems like a dicey proposition. I don't disagree all that much with you on signing X rather than Story or Correa. I love X and can see an argument for spending (hopefully a little less) on him rather than one of these players and figuring out short with some of the future money that you save by not resigning Schwarber this year and letting JDM walk next year, but planning on X being a shortstop for at least three more years doesn't seem prudent. This next year, assuming that he is still playing short, seems likely to be X's last year at the position. And really, I'm not sure how much his next contract is helped by playing a bad shortstop rather than demonstrating that he can be a competent or better 2b or 3b. I suppose he probably believes that he can be better than he was last year, athletes naturally and consistently overestimate themselves as they age, but I can't see any reason to believe he'll be better a better fielder. Of course, the real disaster would be moving and still being bad in the field, so maybe the best thing for him would be to have the highest possible ceiling and eliminate the lowest possible floor, however unlikely it is that either of those are the outcome. I would think that the most likely good scenario is that X can show himself as a good 2b or 3b, proving to teams that they won't have to put him out in left, or worse, DH him. To put into perspective how valuable a reasonably good second baseman who can hit like X is, imagine what the Sox would give for that right now. Three years from now, I'm ok with still having Xander on the team. If Mayer isn't ready or a bust, there will be other shortstops available and Xander can move to 2B or LF. Maybe even RF. There seems to be some narrative that Xander is a butcher at SS. He's slightly below average at worst. He's above average for UZR. But he's also had a wRC+ of 133, 141, 130 and 130 the last 4 years. That consistency is very valuable. Correa's wRC+ for the last 4 years: 101, 142, 96, 134 At worst slightly below average is not accurate, by DRS or OAA he is among the worst in MLB. If you trust UZR more for him sure, but it seems more like the outlier than the rule. I’m okay with Xander there for a little while longer but I don’t think it’s outrageous to believe his defense is a big drain.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 8, 2021 16:06:34 GMT -5
Where's he playing? Hopefully not short stop. Shortstop until Mayer is ready. Unrelated point - I keep seeing mentions of Story on a 1 year contract like Semien. Seems like a 2nd round pick is a steep price for a one year deal. Yikes for ground ball pitchers like Houck and Whitlock then. Boston will be the place where ground ball pitchers come to die (fail) soon.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2021 16:52:24 GMT -5
Three years from now, I'm ok with still having Xander on the team. If Mayer isn't ready or a bust, there will be other shortstops available and Xander can move to 2B or LF. Maybe even RF. There seems to be some narrative that Xander is a butcher at SS. He's slightly below average at worst. He's above average for UZR. But he's also had a wRC+ of 133, 141, 130 and 130 the last 4 years. That consistency is very valuable. Correa's wRC+ for the last 4 years: 101, 142, 96, 134 At worst slightly below average is not accurate, by DRS or OAA he is among the worst in MLB. If you trust UZR more for him sure, but it seems more like the outlier than the rule. I’m okay with Xander there for a little while longer but I don’t think it’s outrageous to believe his defense is a big drain. He was -5 for DRS last season. Jeter was regularly around -20.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 8, 2021 17:32:42 GMT -5
At worst slightly below average is not accurate, by DRS or OAA he is among the worst in MLB. If you trust UZR more for him sure, but it seems more like the outlier than the rule. I’m okay with Xander there for a little while longer but I don’t think it’s outrageous to believe his defense is a big drain. He was -5 for DRS last season. Jeter was regularly around -20. DRS became a stat that came into existence in 2003 full time. This is the early days of this Stat also (probably less accurate). That was Jeter's age 29 season. Xander will be 29 this season.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2021 17:55:07 GMT -5
At worst slightly below average is not accurate, by DRS or OAA he is among the worst in MLB. If you trust UZR more for him sure, but it seems more like the outlier than the rule. I’m okay with Xander there for a little while longer but I don’t think it’s outrageous to believe his defense is a big drain. He was -5 for DRS last season. Jeter was regularly around -20. I didn't compare him to Jeter. He's third worst in MLB among shortstops in DRS since 2019, the worst since 2017. OAA also has him 3rd worst since 2019. If you trust those metrics, rather than UZR, which I do for infielders because UZR ignores all balls played with a shift, then he is a significant drain relative to the other options in the league.
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Post by carl4sox on Dec 9, 2021 18:46:20 GMT -5
If I'm the GM, I pass on all of them. Sign Iggy.
Put the monies into extending X (if he'll take it at four years) and Raffy at seven years.
Get some good/great relievers and one SP (Rodon?), and done.
We finished the year two games from the WS. We don't need much.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 9, 2021 19:20:40 GMT -5
Put the monies into extending X (if he'll take it at four years) and Raffy at seven years. Been discussed but neither of them are taking deals that low. Why would they?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 11, 2021 16:49:27 GMT -5
Put the monies into extending X (if he'll take it at four years) and Raffy at seven years. Been discussed but neither of them are taking deals that low. Why would they? Yeah, my gut says they are going to let Devers walk if he doesn't take a hometown deal, or a very short (i.e. 3 to 4 year) extension. Again, why would he?
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 16, 2021 19:26:05 GMT -5
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Post by Canseco on Dec 16, 2021 19:34:44 GMT -5
Let’s start paying our own guys before offering deals to bush leaguers like Correa. We know firsthand that Bogaerts and Devers are good teammates who can handle Boston. We are also intimately familiar with their medicals, so if those are clean, pay THOSE guys.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 16, 2021 19:51:56 GMT -5
Let’s start paying our own guys before offering deals to bush leaguers like Correa. We know firsthand that Bogaerts and Devers are good teammates who can handle Boston. We are also intimately familiar with their medicals, so if those are clean, pay THOSE guys. I couldn’t agree more.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 16, 2021 21:30:09 GMT -5
Let’s start paying our own guys before offering deals to bush leaguers like Correa. We know firsthand that Bogaerts and Devers are good teammates who can handle Boston. We are also intimately familiar with their medicals, so if those are clean, pay THOSE guys. I like Correa's defensive profile more. Neither Xander or Devers gives me much faith in a position long term. Xander looked like a bad third baseman back when he was young. He'll have even less range in his 30's. Devers is probably a future DH. Correa is a bona-fide short stop. After 3 or 4 years, he's got plenty of arm to move to third base (if he doesn't opt out). Plenty athletic enough too. Mayer should be ready in 4 years. The 10/310 offer is a good one with opt outs. Less than what Seager got, but more value there because of the opt outs.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 16, 2021 23:13:53 GMT -5
Manny Machado is a interesting comp for Correa. Both injury risks leading up to their contracts, Machado has delivered his contract and then some. He'll need to put up 3-4 more years of valuable production to have his contract worth every penny. Machado did this while only playing third base.
Correa plays short stop, and should be more valuable considering the value of the position.
So to anyone scared about long term contracts, there's definitely history of it working out with elite players. Manny, Arod, Matt Holladay, now Machado (so far).
Just don't sign 31 year old elite players like Cabrera, Cano, and Pujols to 10 year deals. That is the main takeaway of being weary of long term deals.
Add Harper to the list of good long term contracts for the team (he got 12 years however, long way to go).
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,799
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Post by mobaz on Dec 17, 2021 8:29:40 GMT -5
Let’s start paying our own guys before offering deals to bush leaguers like Correa. We know firsthand that Bogaerts and Devers are good teammates who can handle Boston. We are also intimately familiar with their medicals, so if those are clean, pay THOSE guys. I like Correa's defensive profile more. Neither Xander or Devers gives me much faith in a position long term. Xander looked like a bad third baseman back when he was young. He'll have even less range in his 30's. Devers is probably a future DH. Correa is a bona-fide short stop. After 3 or 4 years, he's got plenty of arm to move to third base (if he doesn't opt out). Plenty athletic enough too. Mayer should be ready in 4 years. The 10/310 offer is a good one with opt outs. Less than what Seager got, but more value there because of the opt outs. He has fewer long term questions than either Xander or Dev. Highest are injuries and culture fit, which are not trivial. I can see a valid "asset management" rationale for making a "switch" (including cost assurance and clear path down the defensive chain as he ages). But the heartlessness of it is rough, akin to Nomar -> Cabrera -> Renteria.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 17, 2021 10:33:30 GMT -5
Manny Machado is a interesting comp for Correa. Both injury risks leading up to their contracts, Machado has delivered his contract and then some. He'll need to put up 3-4 more years of valuable production to have his contract worth every penny. Machado did this while only playing third base. Correa plays short stop, and should be more valuable considering the value of the position. So to anyone scared about long term contracts, there's definitely history of it working out with elite players. Manny, Arod, Matt Holladay, now Machado (so far). Just don't sign 31 year old elite players like Cabrera, Cano, and Pujols to 10 year deals. That is the main takeaway of being weary of long term deals. Add Harper to the list of good long term contracts for the team (he got 12 years however, long way to go). How are you deciding that Machado and Harper are good deals 3 years into 10- and 13-year contracts, respectively? They're supposed to overperform in the first few years. Let's see how they're going in their 30s.
For a bit of a context: only 6 of the 62 position players who put up 3+ fWAR last season were over the age of 31. Only 3 were over the age of 32.
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Post by soxjim on Dec 18, 2021 23:58:01 GMT -5
Manny Machado is a interesting comp for Correa. Both injury risks leading up to their contracts, Machado has delivered his contract and then some. He'll need to put up 3-4 more years of valuable production to have his contract worth every penny. Machado did this while only playing third base. Correa plays short stop, and should be more valuable considering the value of the position. So to anyone scared about long term contracts, there's definitely history of it working out with elite players. Manny, Arod, Matt Holladay, now Machado (so far). Just don't sign 31 year old elite players like Cabrera, Cano, and Pujols to 10 year deals. That is the main takeaway of being weary of long term deals. Add Harper to the list of good long term contracts for the team (he got 12 years however, long way to go). How are you deciding that Machado and Harper are good deals 3 years into 10- and 13-year contracts, respectively? They're supposed to overperform in the first few years. Let's see how they're going in their 30s.
For a bit of a context: only 6 of the 62 position players who put up 3+ fWAR last season were over the age of 31. Only 3 were over the age of 32.
I'm with you with Machado. The guy is making $32m per year and two of his years he had a WAR of 2.6 and 3.2. No imo that is not worth it.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 19, 2021 8:32:08 GMT -5
How are you deciding that Machado and Harper are good deals 3 years into 10- and 13-year contracts, respectively? They're supposed to overperform in the first few years. Let's see how they're going in their 30s.
For a bit of a context: only 6 of the 62 position players who put up 3+ fWAR last season were over the age of 31. Only 3 were over the age of 32.
I'm with you with Machado. The guy is making $32m per year and two of his years he had a WAR of 2.6 and 3.2. No imo that is not worth it. 2.6 in a 60 game season. So like 7 WAR in a full yr, and finished 3rd in the MVP
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Post by soxjim on Dec 19, 2021 10:19:22 GMT -5
I'm with you with Machado. The guy is making $32m per year and two of his years he had a WAR of 2.6 and 3.2. No imo that is not worth it. 2.6 in a 60 game season. So like 7 WAR in a full yr, and finished 3rd in the MVP Ohh okay. - Thanks. I should've picked that up. In 2020 he hit like a beast.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 20, 2021 8:03:24 GMT -5
Manny Machado is a interesting comp for Correa. Both injury risks leading up to their contracts, Machado has delivered his contract and then some. He'll need to put up 3-4 more years of valuable production to have his contract worth every penny. Machado did this while only playing third base. Correa plays short stop, and should be more valuable considering the value of the position. So to anyone scared about long term contracts, there's definitely history of it working out with elite players. Manny, Arod, Matt Holladay, now Machado (so far). Just don't sign 31 year old elite players like Cabrera, Cano, and Pujols to 10 year deals. That is the main takeaway of being weary of long term deals. Add Harper to the list of good long term contracts for the team (he got 12 years however, long way to go). How are you deciding that Machado and Harper are good deals 3 years into 10- and 13-year contracts, respectively? They're supposed to overperform in the first few years. Let's see how they're going in their 30s.
For a bit of a context: only 6 of the 62 position players who put up 3+ fWAR last season were over the age of 31. Only 3 were over the age of 32.
I'm a few days late commenting on this, but I have to say that this is an astounding stat. Given that MLB front offices have this stuff, it's incredible to me that they keep giving out ridiculous contracts. I hope CB has this stat written on the palm of his hand.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Dec 20, 2021 13:16:18 GMT -5
How are you deciding that Machado and Harper are good deals 3 years into 10- and 13-year contracts, respectively? They're supposed to overperform in the first few years. Let's see how they're going in their 30s.
For a bit of a context: only 6 of the 62 position players who put up 3+ fWAR last season were over the age of 31. Only 3 were over the age of 32.
I'm a few days late commenting on this, but I have to say that this is an astounding stat. Given that MLB front offices have this stuff, it's incredible to me that they keep giving out ridiculous contracts. I hope CB has this stat written on the palm of his hand. Was 2021 typical? How many players over 31 or over 32 do we think will put up 3+ fWAR seasons in 2022 (if there is a full season)? From among Trout, Freeman, Turner, Votto, Belt, Merrifield, LeMaheiu, Grandal, Donaldson, Muncy, Machado, Goldschmidt, Marte, Semien, Escobar, Brandon Crawford? That's 16 names (possibly some mistakes on ages). JD Martinez was 2.9 in 2021, so he's a long shot.
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