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Post by incandenza on Dec 20, 2021 14:08:42 GMT -5
I'm a few days late commenting on this, but I have to say that this is an astounding stat. Given that MLB front offices have this stuff, it's incredible to me that they keep giving out ridiculous contracts. I hope CB has this stat written on the palm of his hand. Was 2021 typical? How many players over 31 or over 32 do we think will put up 3+ fWAR seasons in 2022 (if there is a full season)? From among Trout, Freeman, Turner, Votto, Belt, Merrifield, LeMaheiu, Grandal, Donaldson, Muncy, Machado, Goldschmidt, Marte, Semien, Escobar, Brandon Crawford? That's 16 names (possibly some mistakes on ages). JD Martinez was 2.9 in 2021, so he's a long shot. In 2019, out of 65 position players with 3+ fWAR, 10 were 31+ and 7 were 32+. In 2018, out of 56 players, 6 were 31+ and 5 were 32+. In 2017, out of 61 players, 12 were 31+ and 8 were 32+. In 2016, out of 65 players, 18 were 31+ and 15 were 32+.
If anything it seems to be trending down a bit?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 20, 2021 18:42:22 GMT -5
Was 2021 typical? How many players over 31 or over 32 do we think will put up 3+ fWAR seasons in 2022 (if there is a full season)? From among Trout, Freeman, Turner, Votto, Belt, Merrifield, LeMaheiu, Grandal, Donaldson, Muncy, Machado, Goldschmidt, Marte, Semien, Escobar, Brandon Crawford? That's 16 names (possibly some mistakes on ages). JD Martinez was 2.9 in 2021, so he's a long shot. In 2019, out of 65 position players with 3+ fWAR, 10 were 31+ and 7 were 32+. In 2018, out of 56 players, 6 were 31+ and 5 were 32+. In 2017, out of 61 players, 12 were 31+ and 8 were 32+. In 2016, out of 65 players, 18 were 31+ and 15 were 32+. If anything it seems to be trending down a bit?
Bring back PEDs!
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Post by incandenza on Dec 21, 2021 21:18:16 GMT -5
Suggestive ellipsis watch! Probably means nothing, but it's coming from a guy who knows Correa and Cora from the Astros organization.
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Post by artfuldodger on Dec 22, 2021 7:10:26 GMT -5
In a separate question, Goldstein mentions that the minimum for the Red Sox to sign Correa is 10 years and $300 million. While a reasonable expectation, it is too rich for my taste. I would rather spread that AAV on shorter years.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 22, 2021 11:01:45 GMT -5
In a separate question, Goldstein mentions that the minimum for the Red Sox to sign Correa is 10 years and $300 million. While a reasonable expectation, it is too rich for my taste. I would rather spread that AAV on shorter years. That was my question! Jim in NC: Would Correa be a “good fit” and give the Red Sox value at 10/$300? Only only fewer years and dollars? 1:21 Kevin Goldstein: I think 300 is the minimum to get Carlos to listen, unless someone wants to do something shorter with record-breaking AAVs.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2021 11:03:12 GMT -5
In a separate question, Goldstein mentions that the minimum for the Red Sox to sign Correa is 10 years and $300 million. While a reasonable expectation, it is too rich for my taste. I would rather spread that AAV on shorter years. I'd actually like Correa on a 10-year deal. The problem is that I think he'll probably sign a longer deal than that.
Basically, I feel way better about mega-contracts that run through a player's mid-30s rather than their late 30s. E.g., I think Machado's deal (10/300) is really good for San Diego because it only run through his age 35 season (though with an opt out after age 30). Whereas Bryce Harper's (13/330), despite the lower AAV, would scare me a lot more as it runs through age 38.
A 10-year deal for Correa would run through age 36. Not bad! But I bet he gets 12 years if not more.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2021 12:05:14 GMT -5
The worrying part with Correa is that he averages about 119 games per season for his career and that usually doesn't get better as a player gets into his 30s.
That's a long term contract that I'm not really interested in, unless the CBA adds some kind of protection for teams to get out of bad contracts.
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Canseco
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Post by Canseco on Dec 22, 2021 12:27:30 GMT -5
Absolutely NOT on Correa. We already have a quality SS who won't cost as much long term. On top of that, X isn't a bush league prick who spends a lot of time on the IL. We also KNOW he works out well in our little fish bowl. Hunker down and rally around our own.
Again, re-sign our own guys and focus on quality depth across the roster/system. It's likely that one or two of the young fellas will provide cushion for investing big in Bogaerts and/or Devers.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 22, 2021 12:29:57 GMT -5
Absolutely NOT on Correa. We already have a quality SS who won't cost as much long term. On top of that, X isn't a bush league prick who spends a lot of time on the IL. We also KNOW he works out well in our little fish bowl. Hunker down and rally around our own. Again, re-sign our own guys and focus on quality depth across the roster/system. It's likely that one or two of the young fellas will provide cushion for investing big in Bogaerts and/or Devers. What makes you think Xander won't cost much long-term? Do you think prices will go down next offseason when he's one of the 3 best guys available?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 22, 2021 13:03:55 GMT -5
Absolutely NOT on Correa. We already have a quality SS who won't cost as much long term. On top of that, X isn't a bush league prick who spends a lot of time on the IL. We also KNOW he works out well in our little fish bowl. Hunker down and rally around our own. Again, re-sign our own guys and focus on quality depth across the roster/system. It's likely that one or two of the young fellas will provide cushion for investing big in Bogaerts and/or Devers. What makes you think Xander won't cost much long-term? Do you think prices will go down next offseason when he's one of the 3 best guys available? He probably won't cost as much long-term because I think teams are aware of the fact that Bogaerts' days as a SS are numbered while Correa still probably has another 4 - 5 years left at the position. That said, that might be the reason why the Sox don't sign Bogaerts, the fact that he's better off at another position soon. Honestly I think if the Sox realize they have no traction with Devers whatsoever, which so far appears to be the case, they'll concentrate more on Xander with the idea of him being a 3b when Devers leaves. I think if the Sox feel feel that Devers is somebody they can sign, they'll probably let Bogaerts go and get a stop gap at SS until Mayer is ready. I think the former scenario is more likely than the latter scenario.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 22, 2021 13:05:13 GMT -5
Absolutely NOT on Correa. We already have a quality SS who won't cost as much long term. On top of that, X isn't a bush league prick who spends a lot of time on the IL. We also KNOW he works out well in our little fish bowl. Hunker down and rally around our own. Again, re-sign our own guys and focus on quality depth across the roster/system. It's likely that one or two of the young fellas will provide cushion for investing big in Bogaerts and/or Devers. Dangit, I forgot why I'm supposed to hate Correa again.
In any case, here's another comment from the Goldstein chat:
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2021 14:00:12 GMT -5
Absolutely NOT on Correa. We already have a quality SS who won't cost as much long term. On top of that, X isn't a bush league prick who spends a lot of time on the IL. We also KNOW he works out well in our little fish bowl. Hunker down and rally around our own. Again, re-sign our own guys and focus on quality depth across the roster/system. It's likely that one or two of the young fellas will provide cushion for investing big in Bogaerts and/or Devers. Dangit, I forgot why I'm supposed to hate Correa again.
In any case, here's another comment from the Goldstein chat:
That the Astros lead players developed an 'us against the world' persona after the sign stealing scandal instead of admitting it, showing remorse and apologizing trumps anything that is ever said about them again. For me anyway. I can forgive anyone, but only if they acknowledge wrongdoing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 22, 2021 14:10:31 GMT -5
FWIW, as far as Bogaerts being a guy who we know can play in Boston and Correa being unknown, I'd say a 7-WAR season as one of the most hated players in baseball post-sign stealing is sufficient to show his "playing under scrutiny" bona fides.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 22, 2021 14:52:57 GMT -5
What makes you think Xander won't cost much long-term? Do you think prices will go down next offseason when he's one of the 3 best guys available? He probably won't cost as much long-term because I think teams are aware of the fact that Bogaerts' days as a SS are numbered while Correa still probably has another 4 - 5 years left at the position. That said, that might be the reason why the Sox don't sign Bogaerts, the fact that he's better off at another position soon. Honestly I think if the Sox realize they have no traction with Devers whatsoever, which so far appears to be the case, they'll concentrate more on Xander with the idea of him being a 3b when Devers leaves. I think if the Sox feel feel that Devers is somebody they can sign, they'll probably let Bogaerts go and get a stop gap at SS until Mayer is ready. I think the former scenario is more likely than the latter scenario. On an open market, 30 year old Xander's price probably starts at 7/210
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 22, 2021 15:03:47 GMT -5
He probably won't cost as much long-term because I think teams are aware of the fact that Bogaerts' days as a SS are numbered while Correa still probably has another 4 - 5 years left at the position. That said, that might be the reason why the Sox don't sign Bogaerts, the fact that he's better off at another position soon. Honestly I think if the Sox realize they have no traction with Devers whatsoever, which so far appears to be the case, they'll concentrate more on Xander with the idea of him being a 3b when Devers leaves. I think if the Sox feel feel that Devers is somebody they can sign, they'll probably let Bogaerts go and get a stop gap at SS until Mayer is ready. I think the former scenario is more likely than the latter scenario. On an open market, 30 year old Xander's price probably starts at 7/210 Don't want to presume to speak for Canseco, but I'm guessing his "won't cost as much" comment means that 7 and 210 or 8 and 240 and doesn't cost as much compared to what Correa will get. Don't think he was implying that Bogaerts won't be an expensive contract.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2021 15:18:28 GMT -5
The main difference between what Correa will get and what Xander will get is that Xander will be 3 years older.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 22, 2021 16:07:25 GMT -5
Dangit, I forgot why I'm supposed to hate Correa again.
In any case, here's another comment from the Goldstein chat:
That the Astros lead players developed an 'us against the world' persona after the sign stealing scandal instead of admitting it, showing remorse and apologizing trumps anything that is ever said about them again. For me anyway. I can forgive anyone, but only if they acknowledge wrongdoing. Do you root for the Patriots? Didn't the head coach maintain he innocently misinterpreted the rule - the rule that every other coach in the league understood perfectly? Do you root for the team managed by the mastermind of the Astros' scandal? I rooted for the Braves in the WS. But I'm careful what I say about the Astros cheating. Glass houses, those without sin should cast the first stone, etc.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2021 16:09:21 GMT -5
That the Astros lead players developed an 'us against the world' persona after the sign stealing scandal instead of admitting it, showing remorse and apologizing trumps anything that is ever said about them again. For me anyway. I can forgive anyone, but only if they acknowledge wrongdoing. Do you root for the Patriots? Didn't the head coach maintain he innocently misinterpreted the rule - the rule that every other coach in the league understood perfectly? Do you root for the team managed by the mastermind of the Astros' scandal? I rooted for the Braves in the WS. But I'm careful what I say about the Astros cheating. Glass houses, those without sin should cast the first stone, etc. Cora was the scapegoat, not the mastermind. Please tell me how the bench coach secretly had this elaborate scheme that all the players knew about, but no one else in the organization did.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 22, 2021 16:20:10 GMT -5
Do you root for the Patriots? Didn't the head coach maintain he innocently misinterpreted the rule - the rule that every other coach in the league understood perfectly? Do you root for the team managed by the mastermind of the Astros' scandal? I rooted for the Braves in the WS. But I'm careful what I say about the Astros cheating. Glass houses, those without sin should cast the first stone, etc. Cora was the scapegoat, not the mastermind. Please tell me how the bench coach secretly had this elaborate scheme that all the players knew about, but no one else in the organization did. I didn't say nobody else knew. The manager obviously knew. But Cora was - at a minimum - heavily involved. We're getting off-topic here and I'm not trying to pick on you. I think you're a good poster. I just find it hard to be too high and mighty about fair play, given who my favorite BB and FB teams are.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2021 16:34:54 GMT -5
Cora was the scapegoat, not the mastermind. Please tell me how the bench coach secretly had this elaborate scheme that all the players knew about, but no one else in the organization did. I didn't say nobody else knew. The manager obviously knew. But Cora was - at a minimum - heavily involved. We're getting off-topic here and I'm not trying to pick on you. I think you're a good poster. I just find it hard to be too high and mighty about fair play, given who my favorite BB and FB teams are. One thing I forgot to say. Cora acknowledged his mistake, regretted it, and apologized, unlike Correa or Bregman or Altuve or any other player. They just whined about being the subject of unfair anger. That's what I respect about Cora and what I don't respect about those players.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 22, 2021 16:39:17 GMT -5
I didn't say nobody else knew. The manager obviously knew. But Cora was - at a minimum - heavily involved. We're getting off-topic here and I'm not trying to pick on you. I think you're a good poster. I just find it hard to be too high and mighty about fair play, given who my favorite BB and FB teams are. One thing I forgot to say. Cora acknowledged his mistake, regretted it, and apologized, unlike Correa or Bregman or Altuve or any other player. They just whined about being the subject of unfair anger. That's what I respect about Cora and what I don't respect about those players. Agreed. And I have no doubt the Astros front office originated the cheating scandal and appointed Cora chief coordinator. That doesn't exonerate him. Obviously Hinch wanted no part of it and Cora was willing, but he wasn't the mastermind for sure. And like you said, at least Cora, to his credit, expressed regret compared to what the Astros players have done (or not done).
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 22, 2021 16:46:28 GMT -5
I didn't say nobody else knew. The manager obviously knew. But Cora was - at a minimum - heavily involved. We're getting off-topic here and I'm not trying to pick on you. I think you're a good poster. I just find it hard to be too high and mighty about fair play, given who my favorite BB and FB teams are. One thing I forgot to say. Cora acknowledged his mistake, regretted it, and apologized, unlike Correa or Bregman or Altuve. That's what I respect about Cora and what I don't respect about those players. Totally agree on Cora. It's why I hold him in higher regard than I hold HC NEP. Back on topic, I really think the conversation about Correa is pointless. Nothing in the way CB has operated since he's been here that indicates he's going to give out a $300M contract. I think he's a couple of years away from having the payroll flexibility to sign that level of FA. He needs to start getting low-cost production from the next wave of impact young players. Then he can a sign big-ticket FA or two to finish off the Next Great RS team. His handling (mishandling?) of the E-Rod question was very telling, I thought. It was an ultra-conservative approach not to sign a decent SP on this side of 30 for $15.4M AAV and only five years.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Dec 22, 2021 17:09:34 GMT -5
One thing I forgot to say. Cora acknowledged his mistake, regretted it, and apologized, unlike Correa or Bregman or Altuve. That's what I respect about Cora and what I don't respect about those players. Totally agree on Cora. It's why I hold him in higher regard than I hold HC NEP. Back on topic, I really think the conversation about Correa is pointless. Nothing in the way CB has operated since he's been here that indicates he's going to give out a $300M contract. I think he's a couple of years away from having the payroll flexibility to sign that level of FA. He needs to start getting low-cost production from the next wave of impact young players. Then he can a sign big-ticket FA or two to finish off the Next Great RS team. His handling (mishandling?) of the E-Rod question was very telling, I thought. It was an ultra-conservative approach not to sign a decent SP on this side of 30 for $15.4M AAV and only five years. I’ll be OK with just one 🐐
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2021 17:10:53 GMT -5
Where would he play after they sign Suzuki?
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Dec 22, 2021 17:15:13 GMT -5
Where would he play after they sign Suzuki?
Left field just like a certain hitter wearing number 9
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