SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Sox sign James Paxton- 1yr/$10M+ 2yr club option.
|
Post by trajanacc on Dec 1, 2021 12:16:51 GMT -5
Yeah, the thing is I get, philosophically, not wanting to be on the hook for long-term pitcher deals. But then the only way to get a really *good* pitcher is this Richards/Paxton-style roll-of-the-dice. Because if Rodriguez at ages 28-32 is considered too risky, or too much of a long-term commitment, then it's hard to imagine that any top-line free agent starter would be acceptable to them. Well, the other way to get a really good pitcher is draft and develop them on the cheap. This is probably what they are moving towards.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 1, 2021 12:22:19 GMT -5
if your gonna equate the money portion of it, at least be able to also put in the actual performance of the players we are talking about. ERod, for all his flaws, is a pretty known quantity. Very good pitcher, live arm, dependable innings, young. If they part ways with Paxton after 1 year and /or Wacha, we are right back where we started and inflationary pressures will likely make the replacement more expensive. Given what we know now in FA pitching market, it is pretty clear the greater risk (as far as cost) was taking replacements over ERod (over a 5 yr period). I think the opposite is true. It's way less risky to replace ERod year by year than to sign him for 5 years. If he's struggling to hit 90 in 2 years, you aren't stuck with him for another 3. How often do 5+ year pitcher contracts work out when they are not top pitchers? The lines between good and not an MLB pitcher are pretty close together. I don't really see that. You have to get the starters innings from somewhere with as much performance consistency as you can project. I don't know of any teams that look to replace 2-3 starters every year. Your having to continually compete for a scare resource. I can see it on your 5th starter and bullpen, but if Paxton's option isnt exercised, you want the FO to go through this again ?
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Dec 1, 2021 12:23:46 GMT -5
Yeah, the thing is I get, philosophically, not wanting to be on the hook for long-term pitcher deals. But then the only way to get a really *good* pitcher is this Richards/Paxton-style roll-of-the-dice. Because if Rodriguez at ages 28-32 is considered too risky, or too much of a long-term commitment, then it's hard to imagine that any top-line free agent starter would be acceptable to them. Well, the other way to get a really good pitcher is draft and develop them on the cheap. This is probably what they are moving towards. I think you pay 2 guys. Right now we’re paying Sale and Eovaldi. The other 3 spots should be developed talent but we don’t have that so Bloom is doing the right thing, getting guys for 1 year deals until we get to that point.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2021 12:29:42 GMT -5
Yeah, the thing is I get, philosophically, not wanting to be on the hook for long-term pitcher deals. But then the only way to get a really *good* pitcher is this Richards/Paxton-style roll-of-the-dice. Because if Rodriguez at ages 28-32 is considered too risky, or too much of a long-term commitment, then it's hard to imagine that any top-line free agent starter would be acceptable to them. Well, the other way to get a really good pitcher is draft and develop them on the cheap. This is probably what they are moving towards. Right! But until you *actually* develop those guys you need to fill in the gaps through free agency. Maybe Bello turns into an ace or something, but that's a few years away if it does happen.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 1, 2021 12:30:28 GMT -5
Well, the other way to get a really good pitcher is draft and develop them on the cheap. This is probably what they are moving towards. I think you pay 2 guys. Right now we’re paying Sale and Eovaldi. The other 3 spots should be developed talent but we don’t have that so Bloom is doing the right thing, getting guys for 1 year deals until we get to that point. I think this is a fine philosophy, except the difficulty of actually developing what amounts to 5-7 pitchers from the farm (for depth) that might have a chance to get the best hitters on the planet out.. You have to include for TJS issues. Underporformance. I don't think any team is that good at that kind of development. Wasn't it Theo that said, you develop positional players and shop for pitching, or something like that.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 1, 2021 12:33:06 GMT -5
In my mind, Paxton is a replacement for Richards and Wacha is a replacement for Perez. In addition to the $$$ almost matching up exactly, Paxton will be returning from surgery and ramping up slowly much like Richards did. This is sort of the concern, given that those slots have shifted up one with ERod gone. Richards was awful. It isn’t over, but if they sign, say, Hill, it is hard to make the case their pitching is better or likely equal to last year. I don’t expect 2.5 WAR out of the $17 million invested in Wacha and Paxton. Why is it hard? Talent wise absolutely, but results wise E-Rod was not very valuable last year running a -0.55 WPA. Filling those innings along with Perez and Richards innings with Houck, Whitlock, Wacha, Paxton and someone like Hill it's not hard for me to imagine better results.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 1, 2021 12:37:09 GMT -5
Yeah, the thing is I get, philosophically, not wanting to be on the hook for long-term pitcher deals. But then the only way to get a really *good* pitcher is this Richards/Paxton-style roll-of-the-dice. Because if Rodriguez at ages 28-32 is considered too risky, or too much of a long-term commitment, then it's hard to imagine that any top-line free agent starter would be acceptable to them. Well, the other way to get a really good pitcher is draft and develop them on the cheap. This is probably what they are moving towards. Of course, every team tries to develop their own pitchers but it's not that easy (just ask the last 3 or 4 Red Sox GMs).
But this Paxton signing makes me think that the FO may be higher on Houck and Whitlock than most of us are (as strange as that sounds).
More likely, they're not done and will add at least one more 130+ innings arm. (Checks MLBTR...)
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Dec 1, 2021 12:40:40 GMT -5
This is sort of the concern, given that those slots have shifted up one with ERod gone. Richards was awful. It isn’t over, but if they sign, say, Hill, it is hard to make the case their pitching is better or likely equal to last year. I don’t expect 2.5 WAR out of the $17 million invested in Wacha and Paxton. Why is it hard? Talent wise absolutely, but results wise E-Rod was not very valuable last year running a -0.55 WPA. Filling those innings along with Perez and Richards innings with Houck, Whitlock, Wacha, Paxton and someone like Hill it's not hard for me to imagine better results. It is hard because I don’t think we can expect much from Paxton. Wacha has not had a positive WAR since 2018. And Whitlock moving to the rotation creates a gap in the bullpen (which has the added gap of no Ottavino). Now, maybe Wacha replaces Whitlock… but then you are paying $17 million for a reliever and a guy who is coming off TJ to replace ERod and Ottavino. Ok, slot in Hill, things *could* be close — he might make a good replacement for ERod. But if Wacha=Perez, Paxton=Richards, and Hill=ERod… and Ottavino walks… I don’t see that as better — and it is likely worse. But we’ll see what other moves come, too. I don’t think this is how it’ll end up, so this is only a snapshot on 12/1… not my position on the off season!
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 1, 2021 12:41:35 GMT -5
I'd love to see a comparison of long-term free agent signings to reclamation projects. I think people would be surprised by those results.
I'd also love to see how similar pitchers to ERod who was signed at age 28 yet with limited innings, yet no arm issues did. Add in two years of 30 plus starts before free agency, a season over 200 innings, never being a negative war pitcher and 5 out of 6 years 1.8 bwar or better, along with a Cy young top season and posted his best strikeouts and walk numbers right before free agency. A guy after he got the rust off after missing a full year was pitching like a 2/3.
I certainly understand wanting to stay away from mega deals for pitchers. Yet if 5 years and 77 million is too much for a guy like ERod at his age with his history. I'm scared long-term. That looks like a steal.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 1, 2021 12:41:40 GMT -5
Yeah, the thing is I get, philosophically, not wanting to be on the hook for long-term pitcher deals. But then the only way to get a really *good* pitcher is this Richards/Paxton-style roll-of-the-dice. Because if Rodriguez at ages 28-32 is considered too risky, or too much of a long-term commitment, then it's hard to imagine that any top-line free agent starter would be acceptable to them. Isn't it possible they saw something about Rodriguez specifically that made them not want to take on this type of commitment for him? Or that the opt-out removing the long term upside is a reason they didn't want to do it? I don't think it needs to be such a binary thing.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2021 12:48:18 GMT -5
Remember when Felix Doubront looked almost as good as ERod?
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 1, 2021 12:48:20 GMT -5
Why is it hard? Talent wise absolutely, but results wise E-Rod was not very valuable last year running a -0.55 WPA. Filling those innings along with Perez and Richards innings with Houck, Whitlock, Wacha, Paxton and someone like Hill it's not hard for me to imagine better results. It is hard because I don’t think we can expect much from Paxton. Wacha has not had a positive WAR since 2018. And Whitlock moving to the rotation creates a gap in the bullpen (which has the added gap of no Ottavino). Now, maybe Wacha replaces Whitlock… but then you are paying $17 million for a reliever and a guy who is coming off TJ to replace ERod and Ottavino. Ok, slot in Hill, things *could* be close — he might make a good replacement for ERod. But if Wacha=Perez, Paxton=Richards, and Hill=ERod… and Ottavino walks… I don’t see that as better — and it is likely worse. But we’ll see what other moves come, too. I don’t think this is how it’ll end up, so this is only a snapshot on 12/1… not my position on the off season! Yeah hard to know what we'll get from Paxton, anyways I think your last point is the key that there's going to be more to come, I completely agree they likely need and will add another bullpen arm or two as well to fill those gaps.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2021 12:51:43 GMT -5
Remember when Felix Doubront looked almost as good as ERod? This did not happen.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Dec 1, 2021 12:52:27 GMT -5
Remember when Felix Doubront looked almost as good as ERod? This did not happen. I confess I had really high hopes for Felix. I thought he would be what ERod was. Sad.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Dec 1, 2021 12:55:11 GMT -5
In my mind, Paxton is a replacement for Richards and Wacha is a replacement for Perez. In addition to the $$$ almost matching up exactly, Paxton will be returning from surgery and ramping up slowly much like Richards did. This is sort of the concern, given that those slots have shifted up one with ERod gone. Richards was awful. It isn’t over, but if they sign, say, Hill, it is hard to make the case their pitching is better or likely equal to last year. I don’t expect 2.5 WAR out of the $17 million invested in Wacha and Paxton. If they don't make another signing the 2022 rotation should still be better than the 2021 rotation. Right now it's down Erod and up Chris Sale. Seems like a pretty solid improvement actually. Beyond that, Wacha should be no worse than Richards/Perez (both had a 5.59 xERA last year) and Whitlock/Houck could be a shot in the arm if either can stick in the rotation. The bullpen may be weaker with no future signings, though, and especially so if Whitlock ends up starting. Hopefully Barnes is back to his early 2021 self this year.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 1, 2021 12:57:15 GMT -5
Remember when Felix Doubront looked almost as good as ERod? Nope, his best season was only slightly better than ERods worst. ERod has five seasons where he was no where near Doubront. I'm big on track records and if you want to compare ERod to guys they need to match his track record. Doubronts best two years were -.1 bwar and .7 bwar, ERod has posted 2.5, .4, 1.8, 3.0, 6.1 and 1.9 bwar seasons. Doubront-.1, -.1, -.1, .7, and -1.2, he had only one year with a positive bwar.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2021 13:08:16 GMT -5
Remember when Felix Doubront looked almost as good as ERod? Nope, his best season was only slightly better than ERods worst. ERod has five seasons where he was no where near Doubront. I'm big on track records and if you want to compare ERod to guys they need to match his track record. Doubronts best two years were -.1 bwar and .7 bwar, ERod has posted 2.5, .4, 1.8, 3.0, 6.1 and 1.9 bwar seasons. Doubront-.1, -.1, -.1, .7, and -1.2, he had only one year with a positive bwar. When Doubront was throwing 94 very early in his career, he looked like almost as good of a pitcher. A few years later, he was barely cracking 90 and was out of the league. There is a difference between 'looking almost as good' and 'had the same results'.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2021 13:10:31 GMT -5
Nope, his best season was only slightly better than ERods worst. ERod has five seasons where he was no where near Doubront. I'm big on track records and if you want to compare ERod to guys they need to match his track record. Doubronts best two years were -.1 bwar and .7 bwar, ERod has posted 2.5, .4, 1.8, 3.0, 6.1 and 1.9 bwar seasons. Doubront-.1, -.1, -.1, .7, and -1.2, he had only one year with a positive bwar. When Doubront was throwing 94 very early in his career, he looked like almost as good of a pitcher. A few years later, he was barely cracking 90 and was out of the league. There is a difference between 'looking almost as good' and 'had the same results'. Right... so what's the point of the comparison? Doubront at one point looked like he might turn into the kind of pitcher that Eduardo actually became.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2021 13:12:25 GMT -5
When Doubront was throwing 94 very early in his career, he looked like almost as good of a pitcher. A few years later, he was barely cracking 90 and was out of the league. There is a difference between 'looking almost as good' and 'had the same results'. Right... so what's the point of the comparison? Doubront at one point looked like he might turn into the kind of pitcher that Eduardo actually became. The point is that pitchers fall off cliffs without explanation all the time. Especially ones that are not elite that cannot sustain a velocity drop. I say this with the caveat that I wanted to re-sign ERod, but I understand the logic of not doing it.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,770
|
Post by mobaz on Dec 1, 2021 13:17:47 GMT -5
I don't think I'm ready to live in a world where upside and flexibility are a higher priority in the starting rotation than quality and certainty. I'm kind of okay with it in the bullpen, but starting pitchers still account for a huge number of innings. It is definitely fair to assess that Wacha+Paxton < E-Rod.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2021 13:18:32 GMT -5
Right... so what's the point of the comparison? Doubront at one point looked like he might turn into the kind of pitcher that Eduardo actually became. The point is that pitchers fall off cliffs without explanation all the time. Especially ones that are not elite that cannot sustain a velocity drop. I say this with the caveat that I wanted to re-sign ERod, but I understand the logic of not doing it. Doubront is a case of a promising young pitcher not panning out. Eduardo is an established mid-career starter with remarkably consistent peripheral stats over the past 5 years or so.
If the argument is just that pitchers fall off cliffs, then yes, and that can apply to literally any of them. But of all the free agent pitchers of a similar caliber, Eduardo was signed to the safest deal of any of them (based on cost, health history, and age). So whatever the logic of not signing him is, I think it basically amounts to signing no free agents pitchers ever who project as, say, #3 or better starters.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 1, 2021 13:19:59 GMT -5
I confess I had really high hopes for Felix. I thought he would be what ERod was. Sad. Loved Doubie. He made almost $4.5m in his brief big league career, so I think he's probably doing okay.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 1, 2021 13:20:45 GMT -5
I don't think I'm ready to live in a world where upside and flexibility are a higher priority in the starting rotation than quality and certainty. I'm kind of okay with it in the bullpen, but starting pitchers still account for a huge number of innings. It is definitely fair to assess that Wacha+Paxton < E-Rod. Well, the team now thinks in terms of more than one or two years. They don't want to still be paying David Price. If Wacha or Paxton don't work out, the problem immediately goes away and doesn't hurt future seasons while the upside remains.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 1, 2021 13:26:06 GMT -5
Just for the record, and in this thread only because several people have mentioned it:
E-Rod will turn 29 on 4/7/22, so Detroit did not sign a 28-year-old for his 28-32 yo seasons. Next season will be his 29-yo season and he is under contract through his 33 yo season, with the option to become a FA again before his 31 yo season.
Not a huge difference but a lot bigger than when any of us turned 29...
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Dec 1, 2021 13:26:54 GMT -5
Remember when Felix Doubront looked almost as good as ERod? Jimed, bro... WTF lol
|
|
|