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Post by manfred on Dec 1, 2021 13:32:41 GMT -5
I don't think I'm ready to live in a world where upside and flexibility are a higher priority in the starting rotation than quality and certainty. I'm kind of okay with it in the bullpen, but starting pitchers still account for a huge number of innings. It is definitely fair to assess that Wacha+Paxton < E-Rod. Well, the team now thinks in terms of more than one or two years. They don't want to still be paying David Price. If Wacha or Paxton don't work out, the problem immediately goes away and doesn't hurt future seasons while the upside remains. Which is fine. But that’s what they said last year. At some point, you are trading future considerations for future considerations.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 1, 2021 13:48:23 GMT -5
Count me as one more who saw this and said, aha, Hill next.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 1, 2021 13:56:20 GMT -5
Right... so what's the point of the comparison? Doubront at one point looked like he might turn into the kind of pitcher that Eduardo actually became. The point is that pitchers fall off cliffs without explanation all the time. Especially ones that are not elite that cannot sustain a velocity drop. I say this with the caveat that I wanted to re-sign ERod, but I understand the logic of not doing it. ERod with his velocity drop just posted his best strikeout and walk numbers. It was also a career low in the amount he used his fastball, a trend that's been going on with him for years. Going from throwing to true pitcher. I've outlined how close he matches to Jon Lester and what he went onto do. Lester peaked at 93.7 and was at 92.6 the same as ERod at age 28. Jon Lester was also going the wrong way with his best seasons early in his career, along with strikeout numbers, not improving like ERod. He would still go on to have 3 more top ten Cy young seasons, even with a lot more wear and tear on his arm. I just don't see the point you're trying to make. ERod has gotten better with a normal drop in velocity. If he was Doubront he would have already fell off the cliff. He's left handed, you need to factor that in. Lester did fall off a cliff till mid 30s when he finally dropped below 90 for example. Yes injuries can ruin any pitchers careers, yet if you want to prove ERod is a bad bet long-term you can't use Doubront, that's just crazy.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 1, 2021 14:04:37 GMT -5
Yeah, the thing is I get, philosophically, not wanting to be on the hook for long-term pitcher deals. But then the only way to get a really *good* pitcher is this Richards/Paxton-style roll-of-the-dice. Because if Rodriguez at ages 28-32 is considered too risky, or too much of a long-term commitment, then it's hard to imagine that any top-line free agent starter would be acceptable to them. But as much as people keep saying that long term deals rarely work… how often do reclamation projects work? I was vocally against Richards last off season, which had me exiled to the pessimist camp. But guys generally are what they are. Mike Scott only comes along every so often. And Mike Scott was probably scuffing the ball (at least the 86 Mets thought so). The Red Sox reclamation pitching project that worked out the best was the injured Luis Tiant who was released from the Braves minor league system before hooking on and struggling mightily with the Red Sox in 1971 before he got it all back (and then some) in 1972.
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Post by wildsox on Dec 1, 2021 14:12:25 GMT -5
I’d be much more concerned about the risk of this deal backfiring if we didn’t have Houck,Whitlock and to a lesser extent Seabold as internal options. The amount spent on him only matters if they were trying to stay below threshold because the owners have shown the willingness to spend.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 1, 2021 14:24:58 GMT -5
I confess I had really high hopes for Felix. I thought he would be what ERod was. Sad. Loved Doubie. He made almost $4.5m in his brief big league career, so I think he's probably doing okay.
Doubront was never a really highly rated prospect. E-Rod was better regarded. Doubront did save his best pitching for when it mattered the most. He kind of gave the 2013 Red Sox what Dana Kiecker had given them in 1990, a quality back end starter and he was probably the most underrated factor of the 2013 World Series. He did have a 2 month stretch where he was submitting strong start after strong start. The Cardinals struggled with lefties that year as Jon Lester exploited that, but it was Doubront who came out of the bullpen in Game 3 and 4 and really settled down those games. Game 3 was an uphill struggle but Doubront came in when Peavy struggled and provided 2 scoreless innings and the Sox were finally able to get to starter Joe Kelly and tie the game. They lost in the 9th on that ridiculous interference play. But Doubront came up bigger in Game 4, a game they really had to win. They were starting in an injured Buchholz who was very fortunate to allow only 1 run in 4 innings. Doubront came in and settled the game down and when Gomes hit his big 3 run HR, Doubront pitched that shutdown inning they needed. He went 2.1 innings I believe and Breslow, who ran out of gas during the Series, gave up the 1 run Doubront was charged with, but Felix got the victory in the crucial 4-2 win that featured rover John Lackey pitching a scoreless 8th and Koji picking off Kolten Wong to end the game (where the hell was Wong going with the Cards down 2 runs and the tying run at the plate in Beltran?) The next season, a lot of people thought Doubront would take that next big step, but he didn't. Pitching coach Juan Nieves thought Doubront might win 20 games. Instead he was a disaster and his career was pretty much over. I can't really imagine a comparison between E-rod and Doubront on any level. E-Rod's fastball was down last year, but his K rate actually increased and his control was actually better.
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Post by geostorm on Dec 1, 2021 14:39:14 GMT -5
....so, he didn't get an opportunity to pitch in modified grip world, yet?...should there be concern about that?
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Post by manfred on Dec 1, 2021 14:48:14 GMT -5
I’d be much more concerned about the risk of this deal backfiring if we didn’t have Houck,Whitlock and to a lesser extent Seabold as internal options. The amount spent on him only matters if they were trying to stay below threshold because the owners have shown the willingness to spend. I’ve lost a lot of faith in Seabold, but I am happy to plug the others in the rotation. I think I’m higher on Houck than many and believe he could have gone longer in games last year if they let him. Nonetheless, those guys were depth last year and are plugged in this year.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Dec 1, 2021 20:29:24 GMT -5
Count me as one more who saw this and said, aha, Hill next. Bingo
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Post by dirtdog on Dec 1, 2021 20:36:44 GMT -5
I like this move better than Wacha.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Dec 1, 2021 21:17:31 GMT -5
Sox basically platooning Hill (first half) and Paxton (second half). Once Paxton comes back you can move Hill into the pen or let him ride depending on how he's pitching.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 1, 2021 22:37:08 GMT -5
Sale had 9 starts last year. If we put the over/under for Paxton at 9 starts in 2022, I'm taking the under.
It's really a pretty risky play, which I wouldn't normally associate with Chaim but I give him credit for going for it.
If Paxton doesn't rehab well, it's $10m for nothing. If he comes back sort of like Sale did, in August with not quite his best stuff, but gears up next winter for 2023, it's like 2.2 years/$35m. If he comes back stronger than Sale and really contributes to a stretch run, I'll be pleasantly surprised (gobsmacked, really) and it will be a big score.
Knock on maple...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 1, 2021 23:07:37 GMT -5
....so, he didn't get an opportunity to pitch in modified grip world, yet?...should there be concern about that? Someone on Twitter called @chaimplswin showed Paxton's spin rate data from 2017 (when he had 4.4 fWAR for Seattle) and if I'm reading it right, sticky stuff shouldn't be a big issue. His fastball spin rate was middle of the pack (54th percentile) and his curveball spin rate was actually really low (6th percentile).
The tweet is embedded in today's article about Paxton at the weei/audacy website.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Dec 1, 2021 23:18:51 GMT -5
I think this is an excellent move by the Sox. I believe there is greater than a 50% chance the MLB less than 162 games next season and I think Chan might agree with that assessment. If the season is cut short to 100 games and you start in July then you'll get a full season of Paxton.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 1, 2021 23:19:34 GMT -5
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Post by wOBA Fett on Dec 1, 2021 23:21:54 GMT -5
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Post by kman22 on Dec 1, 2021 23:47:33 GMT -5
Player option $4M for 2023. $6M salary for this season. I really gotta figure out how to post a tweet here.
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Post by orion09 on Dec 1, 2021 23:59:23 GMT -5
Player option $4M for 2023. $6M salary for this season. I really gotta figure out how to post a tweet here. You just paste the twitter url directly in the post and it will automatically populate That's much nicer than a $10M base salary. I guess technically it's a $10M minimum guarantee, but if Paxton looks good enough to reup it effectively becomes a 2y/$19M contract with a third year option.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 2, 2021 2:42:55 GMT -5
Player option $4M for 2023. $6M salary for this season. I really gotta figure out how to post a tweet here. You just paste the twitter url directly in the post and it will automatically populate That's much nicer than a $10M base salary. I guess technically it's a $10M minimum guarantee, but if Paxton looks good enough to reup it effectively becomes a 2y/$19M contract with a third year option. Is there precedent for a contract set up like this? I've certainly never seen it before. Good piece of creativity by the front office and seems like a pretty low risk of getting bad value on the contract, since if he's ineffective or just not playing he's pretty inexpensive.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 2, 2021 11:57:55 GMT -5
Anyone have more context on what this looks like for the luxury tax each year, and also what the conditions are on the player option?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2021 13:16:19 GMT -5
I would THINK that his CBT hit, then, is $5M this year ($10M guaranteed over 2 years?). If Club Option is picked up, then I think it might be $13.5 each year or $14M/$13M. If he picks up the player option, then still $5M in 2023. If he declines, they get hit for $1M in 2023.
That could be very wrong though.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 2, 2021 13:40:56 GMT -5
Player option $4M for 2023. $6M salary for this season. I really gotta figure out how to post a tweet here. You just paste the twitter url directly in the post and it will automatically populate That's much nicer than a $10M base salary. I guess technically it's a $10M minimum guarantee, but if Paxton looks good enough to reup it effectively becomes a 2y/$19M contract with a third year option. This seems like a good deal. Also seems like an Eovaldi replacement, which I get but would rather extend Eovaldi if they could, too.
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Post by manfred on Dec 2, 2021 16:39:13 GMT -5
I saw a tweet from Jameson Taillon saying the lockout means hr cannot work with team trainers. Is that true all around, and if so, how might it impact rehabbing players?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2021 19:45:25 GMT -5
I saw a tweet from Jameson Taillon saying the lockout means hr cannot work with team trainers. Is that true all around, and if so, how might it impact rehabbing players? 40-man only.
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