SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2022 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
|
Post by kingstephanos on Aug 14, 2022 20:03:23 GMT -5
Not that it matters, but I used to scout years back. With that being said, this is my updated top 20 in the system: 1) Mayer 2) Bello 3) Rafaela 4) Casas 5) Bleis 6) Yorke 7) Walter 8) Jordan 9) Mata 10) Valdez 11) Lugo 12) Anthony 13) Murphy 14) Bonaci 15) Romero 16) Paulino 17) Kavadas 18) Hickey 19) Perales 20) Drohan I did not include Winckowski. I'd have him slotted in around 10. I’m curious on Mata why you have him a little lower than on this site? He has bounced back very well after TJS. Many evaluators, including those on this site, see Mata as more of a reliever long-term. That would be my guess.
|
|
|
Post by iliketacos on Aug 14, 2022 20:19:29 GMT -5
I’m curious on Mata why you have him a little lower than on this site? He has bounced back very well after TJS. Many evaluators, including those on this site, see Mata as more of a reliever long-term. That would be my guess. I still see command issues that make me a bit skeptical as to his future as a starter. This is obviously all subjective..
|
|
|
Post by iliketacos on Aug 14, 2022 20:25:24 GMT -5
I believe both are about equal, but have Rafaela higher because I believe there is more upside and defensive value. Ceddanne has already proven the ability to adjust when challenged. I think that the "free swinging" approach debate is outdated these days. If you are able to make consistent contact as you advance and face higher level pitching (which Rafeaela clearly has done) then it becomes more of an eye test for a scout. Again, it's quite close. We are just nitpicking here. Another curious claim. Educate me please. How is this a curious claim?
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Aug 15, 2022 9:48:52 GMT -5
See, the trouble with free swinging is that basically unless you're Vlad Guerrero, Sr. or Raffy Devers on one of his herculean tears, the outcomes when you expand the zone are pretty much all bad. Either you miss and give the pitcher an unearned strike or strikeout, or you make lousy contact and get yourself out. That's why unless you've got super extreme swing-and-miss problems, the focus is on in-zone contact rate versus overall contact rate. Rafaela's bat-to-ball skills might be TOO good based on his current approach because he's getting himself out when he's not just putting himself behind in the count. His numbers are looking better in AA, so hopefully that's the start of a trend. I like him a lot and can see the argument for having him in the mix for 5 or 6, but putting him at 3 seems to be weighting his best-case outcome too heavily.
|
|
|
Post by iliketacos on Aug 15, 2022 14:32:54 GMT -5
There are plenty of batters these days that are successful with the free swinging approach. Rafaela's comp for me would be Tim Anderson.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 15, 2022 14:39:29 GMT -5
There are plenty of batters these days that are successful with the free swinging approach. Rafaela's comp for me would be Tim Anderson. Wow. You think his hit tool is good enough to be a .300 hitter who can vie for batting titles?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 15, 2022 15:11:44 GMT -5
There are plenty of batters these days that are successful with the free swinging approach. Rafaela's comp for me would be Tim Anderson. One is not plenty, though, it's an outlier, as is Rafi. The data says guys with good bat-to-ball skills who can elevate do much better staying in the zone. If swinging freely were a new inefficiency or a success marker, the Red Sox would have a significantly better run differential this year. The Red Sox used to make grinding out at-bats, staying in the zone and working pitchers a point of emphasis in their system. Even with this current three-true outcome mentality (which has some cracks in it, too), you need to be able to produce that second outcome - BB - to be effective. That means plate discipline. Otherwise, you get Adam Dunn, without walks, which is basically this year's version of Marcell Ozuna.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Aug 15, 2022 16:27:03 GMT -5
It's a tricky balance. One of my favorite new-ish stat things is the Statcast Swing Take chart, grading out which types of swing decisions generate value. Basically, unless you're Mike Trout, you're probably not gaining anything from the "shadow" area and most batters put up similar numbers on "waste" pitches. It usually comes down to doing damage on pitches over the heart of the plate and laying off pitches in the chase zone. A free swinging approach over the heart makes sense and is probably an area where some hitters should amp up their aggression (e.g. Juan Soto), but for most hitters the single most impactful part of their game is just taking pitches outside the strike zone. Even Devers, who is more aggressive than the average hitter on everything except waste pitches, has produced more value by taking pitches in the chase zone than anywhere else. While it's definitely possible to be great with an aggressive approach, there are kinds of aggression that are more productive than others. Rafaela could absolutely be successful, but it would likely be in spite of swinging freely, not because of it.
|
|
|
Post by ishkabibble on Aug 15, 2022 18:41:49 GMT -5
Hope I'm not repeating an earlier question but how the heck did Blaze Jordan fall from 10th all the way to 18th? Is it a position versatility thing cuz it seems to me he's hit pretty well at each stop, including Greenville where he has 2 HRs and an OPS over.1000 in about 20 at-bats.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2022 19:04:54 GMT -5
Hope I'm not repeating an earlier question but how the heck did Blaze Jordan fall from 10th all the way to 18th? Is it a position versatility thing cuz it seems to me he's hit pretty well at each stop, including Greenville where he has 2 HRs and an OPS over.1000 in about 20 at-bats. He did not. He was 14th. Three guys entered ahead of him and Ward moved up showing health. Jordan is basically holding steady.
|
|
|
Post by iliketacos on Aug 15, 2022 21:54:50 GMT -5
There are plenty of batters these days that are successful with the free swinging approach. Rafaela's comp for me would be Tim Anderson. Wow. You think his hit tool is good enough to be a .300 hitter who can vie for batting titles? Yes, I do.
|
|
|
Post by iliketacos on Aug 15, 2022 21:58:03 GMT -5
There are plenty of batters these days that are successful with the free swinging approach. Rafaela's comp for me would be Tim Anderson. One is not plenty, though, it's an outlier, as is Rafi. The data says guys with good bat-to-ball skills who can elevate do much better staying in the zone. If swinging freely were a new inefficiency or a success marker, the Red Sox would have a significantly better run differential this year. The Red Sox used to make grinding out at-bats, staying in the zone and working pitchers a point of emphasis in their system. Even with this current three-true outcome mentality (which has some cracks in it, too), you need to be able to produce that second outcome - BB - to be effective. That means plate discipline. Otherwise, you get Adam Dunn, without walks, which is basically this year's version of Marcell Ozuna. I will come up with a list of at least 20 players in MLB that are all-star caliber players and prove my point. You will be amazed to see how the trend is changing..
|
|
|
Post by alan on Aug 16, 2022 2:45:14 GMT -5
Wow. You think his hit tool is good enough to be a .300 hitter who can vie for batting titles? Yes, I do. Rafaela has a 15% LD%, 40% FB% and a 20%+ K% in AA. I always say nothing is impossible but Rafaela has virtually no chance of winning a batting title in the majors. Still, I think he could be become a solid ball player.
|
|
|
Post by e on Aug 16, 2022 6:02:19 GMT -5
One is not plenty, though, it's an outlier, as is Rafi. The data says guys with good bat-to-ball skills who can elevate do much better staying in the zone. If swinging freely were a new inefficiency or a success marker, the Red Sox would have a significantly better run differential this year. The Red Sox used to make grinding out at-bats, staying in the zone and working pitchers a point of emphasis in their system. Even with this current three-true outcome mentality (which has some cracks in it, too), you need to be able to produce that second outcome - BB - to be effective. That means plate discipline. Otherwise, you get Adam Dunn, without walks, which is basically this year's version of Marcell Ozuna. I will come up with a list of at least 20 players in MLB that are all-star caliber players and prove my point. You will be amazed to see how the trend is changing.. If you can come up with 20 players in the MLB who are all-star caliber players, show a similar batted ball profile to Rafaela(in AA, 15.1 LD%, 40.4 GB%, 44.5 FB%), and have similar plate discipline skills, then I am much more inclined to believe you. For reference, Tim Anderson has a 41.5% chase rate, comparable to Rafaela, but has a batted ball profile of 24.2 LD%, 54.9 GB%, 20.9 FB%. I bring up batted ball profile because Rafaela's may actually play down his hit tool compared to Anderson. Being flyball heavy will give him a lower BABIP, which just decreases the likelihood of him having an above average hit tool. In comparison to Anderson who is a groundball heavy hitter, which will lead to a higher BABIP. I think a free swinger to the extent of Rafaela would only be able to succeed if he plays into the Anderson model, balls on the ground and line drives. It's tough to see that approach working along with a heavy dose of flyballs. Which is why he needs to really cut down on his chase rate in my opinion before he's top 3 in the system(or top 100 in baseball).
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 16, 2022 6:17:37 GMT -5
Remember scaffolds? He was fun.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2022 7:11:04 GMT -5
Scaffolds was right about the inverted W.
I agree with iliketacos ranking of Rafaela (3rd behind Bello and Mayer) but picture a different future.
To me, he's Omar Vizquel except at multiple positions and hopefully without the wife beating issues. That's an incredibly valuable player who doesn't need to hit 300 to get there.
ADD: I also think the current state of his defence gives him the highest floor in the system.
ADD2: Omar Vizquel's career wRC+ was 83 and he generated 42.5 fWAR. Think about that.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Aug 16, 2022 7:46:21 GMT -5
Personally I'm not really seeing Rafaela being above Casas, I don't see Bello being above him either. My top 5 is Mayer, Casas, Bello, Yorke, Raefaela. Casas is a 22 year old OPSing .818 in his first exposure to AAA. I think he's going to be a mid lineup thumper at first base. Perhaps part of my rationale on Casas is that I miss the Sox having one of those type of thumpers at first base. They haven't had a good first baseman in what feels like forever.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2022 8:03:40 GMT -5
Personally I'm not really seeing Rafaela being above Casas, I don't see Bello being above him either. My top 5 is Mayer, Casas, Bello, Yorke, Raefaela. Casas is a 22 year old OPSing .818 in his first exposure to AAA. I think he's going to be a mid lineup thumper at first base. Perhaps part of my rationale on Casas is that I miss the Sox having one of those type of thumpers at first base. They haven't had a good first baseman in what feels like forever. Agreed. I think Cedanne Rafaela becomes more of a .250 - .275 hitter with a low OBP and some pop that gets him a .400 SA, so that's a .700 - .750 OPS kind of guy who can play excellent defense, preferably in CF, which is useful and certainly better than what they have now. I wouldn't put him above Casas who I still believe in. I'm just hoping Casas isn't one of those guys where we say, "If only he could stay healthy..." If he does stay healthy I can see Casas hitting .250 - .275 but with a decent amount of walks and a lot of power. I can see him in the .800 - .850 OPS range, maybe touching .900 in his best seasons. I still think he's a middle of the order masher and will finally put a stop to the revolving door at 1b. I still believe in Yorke, and like Casas, he needs to stay healthy. The first name that comes to mind when I think of Yorke is Todd Walker, who was a damn good hitter with some pop who was questionable defensively. Perhaps Yorke will be a better hitter. I can see him in the #2 spot hitting .275 - .300 with an OPS around or above .800 most years. He could wind up in LF if Mikey Romero hits enough to be their 2b of the future. I'll be patient on Bello but I'm not sold on him as a top of the rotation guy. His command looked really shaky, but there still is something there. Even as high up as he is, I think his range of outcomes varies a lot. Mayer, I'm sold on. I think he'll be an all-star. Looking forward to his 2025 arrival. So out of the 5, I'd go, 1) Mayer, 2) Casas, 3) Rafaela, 4) Yorke, 5) Bello, 6) Bleis I threw Bleis in there, who could really be #2 or maybe even #1 if you're going by ceiling, but at this point I'd stick him 6th, but eventually he'll be #1 or #2 if reports of his tools and his performance are lining up together. It's been awhile since we've had an impact outfielder coming up, so I look very forward to Bleis.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2022 8:36:04 GMT -5
Personally I'm not really seeing Rafaela being above Casas, I don't see Bello being above him either. My top 5 is Mayer, Casas, Bello, Yorke, Raefaela. Casas is a 22 year old OPSing .818 in his first exposure to AAA. I think he's going to be a mid lineup thumper at first base. Perhaps part of my rationale on Casas is that I miss the Sox having one of those type of thumpers at first base. They haven't had a good first baseman in what feels like forever. Agreed. I think Cedanne Rafaela becomes more of a .250 - .275 hitter with a low OBP and some pop that gets him a .400 SA, so that's a .700 - .750 OPS kind of guy who can play excellent defense, preferably in CF, which is useful and certainly better than what they have now. I wouldn't put him above Casas who I still believe in. I'm just hoping Casas isn't one of those guys where we say, "If only he could stay healthy..." If he does stay healthy I can see Casas hitting .250 - .275 but with a decent amount of walks and a lot of power. I can see him in the .800 - .850 OPS range, maybe touching .900 in his best seasons. I still think he's a middle of the order masher and will finally put a stop to the revolving door at 1b. I still believe in Yorke, and like Casas, he needs to stay healthy. The first name that comes to mind when I think of Yorke is Todd Walker, who was a damn good hitter with some pop who was questionable defensively. Perhaps Yorke will be a better hitter. I can see him in the #2 spot hitting .275 - .300 with an OPS around or above .800 most years. He could wind up in LF if Mikey Romero hits enough to be their 2b of the future. I'll be patient on Bello but I'm not sold on him as a top of the rotation guy. His command looked really shaky, but there still is something there. Even as high up as he is, I think his range of outcomes varies a lot. Mayer, I'm sold on. I think he'll be an all-star. Looking forward to his 2025 arrival. So out of the 5, I'd go, 1) Mayer, 2) Casas, 3) Rafaela, 4) Yorke, 5) Bello, 6) Bleis I threw Bleis in there, who could really be #2 or maybe even #1 if you're going by ceiling, but at this point I'd stick him 6th, but eventually he'll be #1 or #2 if reports of his tools and his performance are lining up together. It's been awhile since we've had an impact outfielder coming up, so I look very forward to Bleis. Just a Bello comment, he command issues are recent and I'm 100% sold on his changeup. It's one of the best in baseball but time will tell. OK, Casas comment, amazing rise relative to age. On the other hand, he's struggled against lefties at every stop which says strong side platoon slightly above average defensively first baseman. Hope I'm wrong. On the other hand, anywhere in the top 7 is pretty damn good. I have him 4th. My 7th is Walter and his big time curve. I have no idea where to put Mata or Ward both with a wide range of posible outcomes.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,781
|
Post by mobaz on Aug 16, 2022 10:05:04 GMT -5
If he does stay healthy I can see Casas hitting .250 - .275 but with a decent amount of walks and a lot of power. I can see him in the .800 - .850 OPS range, maybe touching .900 in his best seasons. I still think he's a middle of the order masher and will finally put a stop to the revolving door at 1b. I remember a similar conversation in the offseason, but I feel like Casas' more likely outcome is .275-.300+ with 20-25 hr pop than .250-.275 with 35hr upside. Either is fine, but the downside of .250 and 20 hrs would be a disappointment. In trying to contextualize these stats for a 1b (i.e., .250/20 is approx 2021 Rizzo, 12th out of 14 qualifying 1b), I realized my more likely outcome is basically KC Hosmer, and my disappointing outcome is basically SD Hosmer. LOL On a vaguely related note, Josh Bell has been ROUGH in 12 games for SD.
|
|
|
Post by iliketacos on Aug 16, 2022 10:10:19 GMT -5
As I laid out originally, I used to scout for years. I base my rankings and analysis on the live games that I watch. The stat nerds have become way too much for me. Scouting is only for those with a special eye for talent.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Aug 16, 2022 10:26:27 GMT -5
Eye tests are important, especially at lower levels, but the performance ultimately has to translate into something that's measurable or else it's just not making enough of an impact to matter compared to what we do know. To this specific point, guys can absolutely be successful without much plate discipline, but the point is that they have a much narrower path to success, and the triumphs are likely in spite of their approach rather than because of it.
Regarding Casas, I feel like his most likely "good" outcome is .270/.370/.500 with 25 home runs and 40+ doubles from playing in Fenway. That's a really good player, especially if he's a good defensive first baseman. Fingers crossed he can get there, if not better.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 16, 2022 10:30:23 GMT -5
As I laid out originally, I used to scout for years. I base my rankings and analysis on the live games that I watch. The stat nerds have become way too much for me. Scouting is only for those with a special eye for talent. Yeah sorry but vague claims of past credentials aren't really enough to warrant respect, especially not if you're going to call people with different perspectives "nerds" and claim that you have a special eye for talent.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2022 10:45:01 GMT -5
As I laid out originally, I used to scout for years. I base my rankings and analysis on the live games that I watch. The stat nerds have become way too much for me. Scouting is only for those with a special eye for talent. Something Derrick McKamey (Cardinals) said has always stuck with me. Paraphrasing, he said pro scouting and statistics should match and when they don't, it's time to examine why not. ADD: Long long long ago, SoxProspects had a Q&A with McKamey. ADD2: The Cardinals gave him a World Series Ring. He's probably one of very few scouts in the world wearing one.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 16, 2022 10:54:40 GMT -5
As I laid out originally, I used to scout for years. I base my rankings and analysis on the live games that I watch. The stat nerds have become way too much for me. Scouting is only for those with a special eye for talent. Something Derrick McKamey (Cardinals) said has always stuck with me. Paraphrasing, he said pro scouting and statistics should match and when they don't, it's time to examine why not. ADD: Long long long ago, SoxProspects had a Q&A with McKamey. ADD2: The Cardinals gave him a World Series Ring. He's probably one of very few scouts in the world wearing one.I can say pretty confidently that this is not true, getting off topic for a bit. Most people in the organization typically get rings when a team wins.
|
|
|