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2022 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 16, 2022 11:59:37 GMT -5
Scouting is only for those with a special eye for talent. Yeah, never met a scout who would say this.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 16, 2022 12:45:33 GMT -5
I will come up with a list of at least 20 players in MLB that are all-star caliber players and prove my point. You will be amazed to see how the trend is changing.. If you can come up with 20 players in the MLB who are all-star caliber players, show a similar batted ball profile to Rafaela(in AA, 15.1 LD%, 40.4 GB%, 44.5 FB%), and have similar plate discipline skills, then I am much more inclined to believe you. For reference, Tim Anderson has a 41.5% chase rate, comparable to Rafaela, but has a batted ball profile of 24.2 LD%, 54.9 GB%, 20.9 FB%. I bring up batted ball profile because Rafaela's may actually play down his hit tool compared to Anderson. Being flyball heavy will give him a lower BABIP, which just decreases the likelihood of him having an above average hit tool. In comparison to Anderson who is a groundball heavy hitter, which will lead to a higher BABIP. I think a free swinger to the extent of Rafaela would only be able to succeed if he plays into the Anderson model, balls on the ground and line drives. It's tough to see that approach working along with a heavy dose of flyballs. Which is why he needs to really cut down on his chase rate in my opinion before he's top 3 in the system(or top 100 in baseball). You have some interesting ideas and make some good points, but I think you're relying too heavily on BABIP in order to tell the story. Although groundballs have a higher BABIP than flyballs, it doesn't account for home runs, which makeup the majority of the difference. As a home run is the best possible outcome of an at-bat, it shouldn't be left-out when evaluating the player's likelihood of success and hit tool. And when accounting for the value of extra-base hits (including home runs) over singles, a fly ball is generally a superior outcome to a groundball. It should also be noted that although groundballs produce higher BABIPs, 'hard-hit' groundballs produce a batting average of .250+ greater than 'medium-hit' or 'soft-hit' groundballs, so the exit velocity is extremely important when determining whether a ground-ball profile is superior. Of course, line drives are superior, in terms of BABIP, than any other outcome. Also, you suggest that his BABIP would determine his hit tool, which is a measuring tool created by scouts. I'm not a scout, but I would be surprised if they rely heavily on BABIP when determining a player's hit tool (as opposed to LD%, bat speed, exit velocity, K%, launch angle, etc.) along with their first-hand assessments. Sorry if this came off overly critical - I actually very much liked reading your opinion above and think you made some good points overall. (also - sorry for veering off-topic)
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Post by e on Aug 16, 2022 13:12:53 GMT -5
If you can come up with 20 players in the MLB who are all-star caliber players, show a similar batted ball profile to Rafaela(in AA, 15.1 LD%, 40.4 GB%, 44.5 FB%), and have similar plate discipline skills, then I am much more inclined to believe you. For reference, Tim Anderson has a 41.5% chase rate, comparable to Rafaela, but has a batted ball profile of 24.2 LD%, 54.9 GB%, 20.9 FB%. I bring up batted ball profile because Rafaela's may actually play down his hit tool compared to Anderson. Being flyball heavy will give him a lower BABIP, which just decreases the likelihood of him having an above average hit tool. In comparison to Anderson who is a groundball heavy hitter, which will lead to a higher BABIP. I think a free swinger to the extent of Rafaela would only be able to succeed if he plays into the Anderson model, balls on the ground and line drives. It's tough to see that approach working along with a heavy dose of flyballs. Which is why he needs to really cut down on his chase rate in my opinion before he's top 3 in the system(or top 100 in baseball). You have some interesting ideas and make some good points, but I think you're relying too heavily on BABIP in order to tell the story. Although groundballs have a higher BABIP than flyballs, it doesn't account for home runs, which makeup the majority of the difference. As a home run is the best possible outcome of an at-bat, it shouldn't be left-out when evaluating the player's likely-hood of success and hit tool. And when accounting for the value of extra-base hits (including home runs) over singles, a fly ball is generally a superior outcome to a groundball. It should also be noted that although groundballs produce higher BABIPs, 'hard-hit' groundballs produce a batting average of .250+ greater than 'medium-hit' or 'soft-hit' groundballs, so the exit velocity is extremely important when determining whether a ground-ball profile is superior. Of course, line drives are superior, in terms of BABIP, than any other outcome. Also, you suggest that his BABIP would determine his hit tool, which is a measuring tool created by scouts. I'm not a scout, but I would be surprised if they rely heavily on BABIP when determining a player's hit tool (as opposed to LD%, bat speed, exit velocity, K%, launch angle, etc.) along with their first-hand assessments. Sorry if this came off overly critical - I actually very much liked reading your opinion above and think you made some good points overall. (also - sorry for veering off-topic) I appreciate your feedback, and in no way do I think you come off as overly critical! Hoping this clears up some of my points up: I was in no way suggesting that anyone bases a hit tool off of a player's BABIP. Obviously there are many more factors(like the one's you bring up), but I was just making the point that a fly ball heavy hitter will normally have a lower BABIP than the groundball counterpart. It was more a critique of bringing up how Rafaela could have a comparable hit tool to Tim Anderson, even with the high chase rate. In my opinion, Rafaela's hit tool has a fairly wide variance based on how his approach develops, not so much about his batted ball profile. I am also not critical of the fly ball profile that Rafaela has, I actually prefer it over what Anderson does. It's one of the reasons I am super excited about him, especially since he's pulling the ball more and pulled fly balls usually lead to good outcomes. I realize how my points earlier could be construed as disliking him as a prospect, but I am a big Rafaela believer.
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Post by iliketacos on Aug 16, 2022 22:08:14 GMT -5
Scouting is only for those with a special eye for talent. Yeah, never met a scout who would say this. Apparently, you don't know the scouts that I do!!
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Post by ltlurker on Aug 17, 2022 11:38:17 GMT -5
Several members have questioned whether Bleis is the first player with a ceiling of 8 since the 2-8 scale was introduced and Chris and Ian also discussed it on the most recent podcast (they couldn’t remember any others). Posting this here, as I was curious myself and figured it is relatively on-topic (and doesn’t fit much better in the Bleis thread?).
The 2-8 scale first shows up on SP on the Internet Archive on 2/10/2013. The previous archived entry—2/1/13—was still using the 1-10 scale.
I didn’t look at every single update, but I checked several from each season and it seems fairly safe to say that only 4 players have ever had a ceiling of 8 prior to Bleis, including two at the same time, including a pitcher!
Xander Anderson Espinoza Yoan Moncada Devers
Xander was a 10 for a couple of years prior to the grading change and was an 8 from then until he graduated. He is the only player that I found that had an 8 for a current projection. He is clearly the SP HoF prospect. Moncada, Devers, Swihart, and E-Rod all had current projections of 7 at one time or another with the current scale, but that’s not an exhaustive list.
Espinoza was an 8 from July, 2015, when he debuted in the top 20 at #11 (when he was 17 years old!) and held his 8 until his trade in July of the following year. He was the only 8 with a floor of 2 and held the 8 longer than anyone but X, at least so far.
Moncada’s ceiling was first an 8 in September of 2015 but dropped down to a 7 in April of 2016, only to return to an 8 in September ’16, where it remained until he was traded in December of that year. His current projection was a 7 from September ’15 through March ’16, then a 6 for the rest of his time in the system.
Devers received a ceiling of 8 in September of 2017, after he had already been called up, and he graduated shortly thereafter. He had a ceiling of 7 at the time of his promotion and his current projection had slipped from a high of 7 in 2015 down to a 6 in 2016, where it remained.
Bonus: Casey Kelly had a ceiling of 10 under the old system in 2009/2010 and Lars Anderson, Clay Bucholz, and Michael Almanzar (!!) all had ceilings of 10 in 2009.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2022 11:53:59 GMT -5
Coincidentally, 80-grade first post on the forum. Welcome!
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 31, 2022 20:27:56 GMT -5
Edinnson Paulinho has had the quietest slide in to the top 10. Also, remember Enderso Lira last year? Good times
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 31, 2022 20:29:32 GMT -5
Also, does Wong graduate assuming he’s up for the rest of the year?
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Post by seamus on Aug 31, 2022 20:45:44 GMT -5
Oooh, Noah Dean! I hadn't seen any news - is he back soon?
Edit: I'm a dummy who confused Noah Dean and Noah Song.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2022 22:40:00 GMT -5
Also, does Wong graduate assuming he’s up for the rest of the year? Might depend on how many ABs he gets. Not sure where he's at on service time but sometimes we fudge it for guys, especially catchers. He's only got 21 at-bats so there's a decent chance he doesn't get over 130.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2022 22:43:03 GMT -5
Actual Player Last Change 1 Marcelo Mayer 1 0 2 Triston Casas 2 0 3 Brayan Bello 3 0 4 Nick Yorke 4 0 5 Miguel Bleis 5 0 6 C Rafaela 8 2 7 Bryan Mata 6 -1 8 Brandon Walter 7 -1 9 Mikey Romero 10 0 10 E Paulino 13 2 11 Roman Anthony 14 2 12 Chris Murphy 11 -2 13 Connor Wong 17 3 14 Enmanuel Valdez 16 1 15 W Gonzalez 19 3 16 Blaze Jordan 18 1 17 Thaddeus Ward 15 -3 18 Matthew Lugo 21 2 19 Luis Perales 24 4 20 Nathan Hickey 22 1 21 Cutter Coffey 20 -2 22 Niko Kavadas 25 2 23 Connor Seabold 12 -12 24 Brainer Bonaci 27 2 25 Jeter Downs 23 -3 26 Wilyer Abreu 26 -1 27 Frank German 30 2 28 Rodriguez-Cruz 34 5 29 Shane Drohan 32 2 30 Brooks Brannon 33 2 31 Zack Kelly 35 3 32 Alex Binelas 28 -5 33 Tyler McDonough 31 -3 34 Jedixson Paez 37 2 35 R Hernandez 39 3 36 Christian Koss 40 3 37 Tyler Uberstine 41 3 38 Hunter Dobbins 36 -3 39 Eduard Bazardo 38 -2 40 Ryan Fernandez 43 2 41 G Jimenez 29 -13 42 Angel Bastardo 42 -1 43 F Encarnacion 46 2 44 J Salazar 45 0 45 Eduardo Lopez 44 -2 46 Noah Dean 48 1 47 M Alcantara 47 -1 48 AJ Politi 55 6 49 David Hamilton 50 0 50 Jacob Wallace 59 8 51 Luis Ravelo 51 -1 52 Chase Meidroth 9 53 Allan Castro 8 54 Devlin Granberg 53 -2 55 Ryan Fitzgerald 54 -2 56 J Encarnacion 5 57 Luis Guerrero 4 58 Max Ferguson 57 -2 59 Juan Chacon 52 -8 60 Reidis Sena 1
Note that "Change" accounts for Winckowski graduating, so Salazar moving up 1, for example, is zeroed out.
Winck graduated. Cruz, Shugart, Rosier, Liu fell out.
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Post by iliketacos on Aug 31, 2022 22:54:33 GMT -5
Oooh, Noah Dean! I hadn't seen any news - is he back soon? Edit: I'm a dummy who confused Noah Dean and Noah Song. I think we can all agree that Noah Song is a lost cause..
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Post by adamgregory81 on Sept 1, 2022 0:43:50 GMT -5
Oooh, Noah Dean! I hadn't seen any news - is he back soon? Edit: I'm a dummy who confused Noah Dean and Noah Song. I think we can all agree that Noah Song is a lost cause.. Not that I disagree, but this post got me thinking - how much does age matter for a pitcher? Pitcher’s tend to peak between 27 and 30, but I wonder how much of the decline from the “peak” is as a result of pitches thrown. As a very rough analogy - a 1994 Chevy k-1500 with 30k miles that has spent its life in a garage should definitely not be expected to produce the same amount of Work as a 2015 Chevy Silverado wit 30k miles, however I would expect it to produce far more work than a 2015 Chevy Silverado with 130k miles. That is, of course age matters to a degree, but if your arm is staying fresh, maybe pitching in Salem at 26 after a few years of rest does not make you a lost cause? Outside of a pure biological decline in athleticism, I think (I don’t know this for sure) there is a perception that time away from the game is lost time. That is very obviously true in the short term, as it takes some time for a player to ramp up (that could be six weeks or two years depending on the amount of time off), however, as a late bloomer, I tend to think that a period of reflection can be beneficial for the mental aspect of a task, even if the physical aspect takes time to recover. Noah Song in a Sox uniform? Unlikely, but it would be a great story, so let’s not count him out yet.
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 1, 2022 8:07:13 GMT -5
Any sense for where Taylor Broadway might fall in the rankings? Or is he just not top 60?
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Sept 1, 2022 9:56:44 GMT -5
First off, you guys did another great job with the rankings! The first minor adjustment I see is with Hickey and Kavadas. I agree with the rankings. Their ETA's should be the same.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Sept 1, 2022 9:58:19 GMT -5
Any sense for where Taylor Broadway might fall in the rankings? Or is he just not top 60? I'd have him outside our top 60. A nice throw in though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 1, 2022 11:20:30 GMT -5
Any sense for where Taylor Broadway might fall in the rankings? Or is he just not top 60? Evaluating. He might sneak in the back.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 1, 2022 11:31:47 GMT -5
I think we can all agree that Noah Song is a lost cause.. Not that I disagree, but this post got me thinking - how much does age matter for a pitcher? Pitcher’s tend to peak between 27 and 30, but I wonder how much of the decline from the “peak” is as a result of pitches thrown. As a very rough analogy - a 1994 Chevy k-1500 with 30k miles that has spent its life in a garage should definitely not be expected to produce the same amount of Work as a 2015 Chevy Silverado wit 30k miles, however I would expect it to produce far more work than a 2015 Chevy Silverado with 130k miles. That is, of course age matters to a degree, but if your arm is staying fresh, maybe pitching in Salem at 26 after a few years of rest does not make you a lost cause? Outside of a pure biological decline in athleticism, I think (I don’t know this for sure) there is a perception that time away from the game is lost time. That is very obviously true in the short term, as it takes some time for a player to ramp up (that could be six weeks or two years depending on the amount of time off), however, as a late bloomer, I tend to think that a period of reflection can be beneficial for the mental aspect of a task, even if the physical aspect takes time to recover. Noah Song in a Sox uniform? Unlikely, but it would be a great story, so let’s not count him out yet. Good points. It also should be noted that the last 2 years may not be fully lost. A pitcher can work on improving pitch grips, command and control as long as he has someone to catch and throw the ball back and I'm willing to bet he has no short supply of that among Navy officers during their off-time. It would likely be more difficult if he were a batter. It will be interesting to see what form he's in next season (assuming his application is approved). www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/05/boston-red-sox-prospect-noah-song-applies-to-continue-baseball-career-after-2-years-of-aviation-training-report.html
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Post by congusgambler33 on Sept 1, 2022 12:01:22 GMT -5
to my way of thinking, that is a very solid top 30 prospects. Great job done by the staff.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 1, 2022 17:26:54 GMT -5
I have to admit the september top 60 list is pretty interesting to me. How come Soxprospects still believe's in Mr Yorke (which I agree by the way )but other sites knocked him out of the top 100 list?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 1, 2022 17:28:46 GMT -5
I have to admit the september top 60 list is pretty interesting to me. How come Soxprospects still believe's in Mr Yorke (which I agree by the way )but other sites knocked him out of the top 100 list? What would you have wanted them to do with him? He had an injury riddled season, but it's not like they're going to plummet his entire evaluation
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,511
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 1, 2022 17:30:10 GMT -5
I have to admit the september top 60 list is pretty interesting to me. How come Soxprospects still believe's in Mr Yorke (which I agree by the way )but other sites knocked him out of the top 100 list? Probably because we/they are factoring in that he was injured, playing injured and the other sites are just ranking on the numbers because they don't see these guys as much.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 1, 2022 17:30:29 GMT -5
I have to admit the september top 60 list is pretty interesting to me. How come Soxprospects still believe's in Mr Yorke (which I agree by the way )but other sites knocked him out of the top 100 list? What would you have wanted them to do with him? He had an injury riddled season, but it's not like they're going to plummet his entire evaluation I just said I agree with our site bro. I dont know why the other sites gave up so quickly , He was breaking top 50.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2022 6:09:39 GMT -5
Moved the music tangent into the music thread in off-topic.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2022 7:35:01 GMT -5
Brian Abraham on Yorke (2nd paragraph) as told to Chad Jenning in the Athletic:
And I think we’ve definitely seen that in the second half of the year, to be quite honest. He’s hit the ball more hard. He’s driven the baseball pull side in the air more so. And he’s just taking more comfortable at-bats. He’s working deeper into the counts. It’s not always turning into results, but I think he’s seeing the ball better, he’s having a better approach overall, and he’s driving the baseball more consistently. We’ve definitely seen that in the second half as he’s become a little bit more healthy and able to play more consistently. That, along with the defensive side where he continues to show improvements — while the numbers might not show it, I think we’ve seen someone who’s made some adjustments, has battled through some difficulties, and who is coming into the end of the season on a high note compared to where it might have started.
LOL, if you don't have a subscription, what he says about Bleis is worth the price of admission.
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