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4/11-4/13 Red Sox @ Tigers Series Thread
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 13, 2022 16:45:30 GMT -5
Question, has anybody considered that maybe he just didn't want to be here? There's plenty of people who are unhappy in their workplaces and leave for similar paydays but a change of scenery. Often when we don't signed someone we are linked to or don't resign someone it's always put as a failure of the gm at the time. With his shot at the defense on his way out, it seems fairly likely to me that he just didn't want to be here. Yes, a bunch of people have brought this up, despite there being zero evidence for it, and his being well known for getting along with his teammates and Cora, and the Occam's razor explanation being that the Sox just didn't offer as much money as Detroit, and Chaim Bloom himself saying that they weren't willing to offer as much money as Detroit. Obviously if the money was as far apart as it seems, that's reason #1, but I also wonder if E-Rod was tired of being called out publicly by his "second father" (Eddie's words at one point). AC's tough love yielded results but maybe it wore on Eddie.
Also, one thing I learned the other day is that E-Rod and fellow countryman Miggy Cabrera are tight, so maybe there was some lobbying there.
Both of those things could have factored into Eddie making his decision as early in FA as he did. If it was just the money, maybe he waits a bit for an even bigger offer.
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Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2022 16:49:13 GMT -5
I can live with Robles as closer. Games will be exciting one way or the other. Am I not entertained?
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Post by incandenza on Apr 13, 2022 16:58:57 GMT -5
Yes, a bunch of people have brought this up, despite there being zero evidence for it, and his being well known for getting along with his teammates and Cora, and the Occam's razor explanation being that the Sox just didn't offer as much money as Detroit, and Chaim Bloom himself saying that they weren't willing to offer as much money as Detroit. Obviously if the money was as far apart as it seems, that's reason #1, but I also wonder if E-Rod was tired of being called out publicly by his "second father" (Eddie's words at one point). AC's tough love yielded results but maybe it wore on Eddie.
Also, one thing I learned the other day is that E-Rod and fellow countryman Miggy Cabrera are tight, so maybe there was some lobbying there.
Both of those things could have factored into Eddie making his decision as early in FA as he did. If it was just the money, maybe he waits a bit for an even bigger offer.
He did seem to want to get it done quickly, but that's consistent with his going with the best offer he could get quickly. My guess about how it went down is something like:
Agent: "So Detroit wants to give you $77 million."
Eduardo: "Cool. Anyone want to give more than that?"
Agent: [asks around, including Boston] "Well, we might increase our leverage if we wait out the mar-"
Eduardo: "I'll take it."
Agent: "Okay then!"
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 13, 2022 17:09:38 GMT -5
I can live with Robles as closer. Games will be exciting one way or the other. Am I not entertained? Kind of interesting Koji parallels in their pre-Boston careers although Koji was more consistent. Neither joined the Sox with outsized expectations.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 13, 2022 17:51:06 GMT -5
There are 4-out saves and then there is what Robles did today. If he keeps it up I might be in the market for a #57 jersey... Still lamenting the disappearance of my Julian Tavarez jersey after our last move 10 years ago.
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Post by rjw on Apr 13, 2022 17:53:18 GMT -5
Kudos for the "Gladiator" reference.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2022 17:59:37 GMT -5
Maybe ERod is cursed? Is that the genius of letting him go? He will just always have bad D, bad BABIP etc? Yes, E-Rod is cursed and maybe when there are errors he gets rattled and then he looses concentration and implodes.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 13, 2022 18:13:05 GMT -5
Maybe ERod is cursed? Is that the genius of letting him go? He will just always have bad D, bad BABIP etc? Yes, E-Rod is cursed and maybe when there are errors he gets rattled and then he looses concentration and implodes. I thought I had remembered that about him but checking his stats, the difference between his R and ER allowed has never been all that big.
I surely won't miss his 4.2 IP, 100 pitch efforts, though.
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 13, 2022 18:21:58 GMT -5
There are 4-out saves and then there is what Robles did today. If he keeps it up I might be in the market for a #57 jersey... Also poetic he did it wearing E-Rod’s old number
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Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2022 18:39:35 GMT -5
I can live with Robles as closer. Games will be exciting one way or the other. Am I not entertained? Kind of interesting Koji parallels in their pre-Boston careers although Koji was more consistent. Neither joined the Sox with outsized expectations. In the two years before joining Boston, Uehara put up a 1.75 ERA/2.67 xFIP and a 2.35 ERA/2.33 xFIP. Compare that to Robles' 4.91 ERA/4.74 xFIP and 10.26 (!) ERA/5.20 xFIP pre-Boston seasons. Uehara's issue was that he was a 37 YO skinny Japanese guy averaging 89 mph on his fastball with injury issues, which resulted in teams overlooking his elite performance when healthy. Meanwhile, Robles is a 31 YO stocky Dominican guy averaging 97 on his fastball, which resulted in him getting a shot despite putting up pretty bad recent performance.
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Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2022 18:49:27 GMT -5
Kind of interesting Koji parallels in their pre-Boston careers although Koji was more consistent. Neither joined the Sox with outsized expectations. In the two years before joining Boston, Uehara put up a 1.75 ERA/2.67 xFIP and a 2.35 ERA/2.33 xFIP. Compare that to Robles' 4.91 ERA/4.74 xFIP and 10.26 (!) ERA/5.20 xFIP pre-Boston seasons. Uehara's issue was that he was a 37 YO skinny Japanese guy averaging 89 mph on his fastball with injury issues, which resulted in teams overlooking his elite performance when healthy. Meanwhile, Robles is a 31 YO stocky Dominican guy averaging 97 on his fastball, which resulted in him getting a shot despite putting up pretty bad recent performance.
So… you’re saying he has a chance?
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Post by benzinger on Apr 13, 2022 18:52:11 GMT -5
Yes, E-Rod is cursed and maybe when there are errors he gets rattled and then he looses concentration and implodes. I thought I had remembered that about him but checking his stats, the difference between his R and ER allowed has never been all that big.
I surely won't miss his 4.2 IP, 100 pitch efforts, though.
He was maddening to watch. One of the first times I heard the term “quality start” was about him.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 13, 2022 19:02:51 GMT -5
Kind of interesting Koji parallels in their pre-Boston careers although Koji was more consistent. Neither joined the Sox with outsized expectations. In the two years before joining Boston, Uehara put up a 1.75 ERA/2.67 xFIP and a 2.35 ERA/2.33 xFIP. Compare that to Robles' 4.91 ERA/4.74 xFIP and 10.26 (!) ERA/5.20 xFIP pre-Boston seasons. Uehara's issue was that he was a 37 YO skinny Japanese guy averaging 89 mph on his fastball with injury issues, which resulted in teams overlooking his elite performance when healthy. Meanwhile, Robles is a 31 YO stocky Dominican guy averaging 97 on his fastball, which resulted in him getting a shot despite putting up pretty bad recent performance.
But man, could he sell some product!
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 14, 2022 6:58:38 GMT -5
In the two years before joining Boston, Uehara put up a 1.75 ERA/2.67 xFIP and a 2.35 ERA/2.33 xFIP. Compare that to Robles' 4.91 ERA/4.74 xFIP and 10.26 (!) ERA/5.20 xFIP pre-Boston seasons. Uehara's issue was that he was a 37 YO skinny Japanese guy averaging 89 mph on his fastball with injury issues, which resulted in teams overlooking his elite performance when healthy. Meanwhile, Robles is a 31 YO stocky Dominican guy averaging 97 on his fastball, which resulted in him getting a shot despite putting up pretty bad recent performance. Other than that they're pretty much the same guy!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2022 11:27:12 GMT -5
Maybe ERod is cursed? Is that the genius of letting him go? He will just always have bad D, bad BABIP etc? Yes, E-Rod is cursed and maybe when there are errors he gets rattled and then he looses concentration and implodes. How many Alex Cora quotes can you find about his needing to help E-Rod get motivated?
Compare to like quotes (from anyone, ever) about Pedroia ... or Story.
I don't think that players who sign big contracts and slack off do so consciously. I think it's a subconscious thing. But there's nothing more important in dealing with free agents then making the assessment: will a big contract unconsciously de-motivate this guy, or not?
Past Sox GM's have been very bad at this, and I don't think you need any examples (except that this was the mistake with Lugo, too). Bloom seems to really get it ... based on this SSS of two guys, admittedly. But it's really stark.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2022 11:42:20 GMT -5
Sox pitching Statcast numbers going into the home opener. No one's been mediocre or just OK. And the rotation is upside down! Opponents faced seems to be a factor there.
Name PA woBA xwOBA Sawamura, Hiro 4 .000 .175 Strahm, Matt 8 .087 .200 Barnes, Matt 7 .183 .213 Hill, Rich 19 .333 .227 Valdez, Philli 6 .213 .228 Diekman, Jake 9 .261 .237 Whitlock, Garr 22 .168 .247 Robles, Hansel 12 .164 .290 Wacha, Michael 18 .215 .302 Eovaldi, Nathan 43 .349 .365 Crawford, Kutt 16 .538 .470 Houck, Tanner 19 .450 .492 Davis, Austin 12 .532 .536 Brasier, Ryan 7 .557 .600 Pivetta, Nick 23 .352 .604 I already had Valdez, Crawford (to be stretched out as a starter), and Brasier (option left, velocity down) pegged as guys to be trimmed on May 1 and/or to make room for Taylor, and Davis is a guy who could be traded, e.g., to make room for Holland.
Coolest thing here is that Whitlock has the PA of a starter. There are just 91 pitchers who have faced 20 batters, and Whitlock is 16th in xwOBA and 10th in wOBA. His xwOBA = above average #2 starter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2022 11:49:48 GMT -5
And bullpen Leverage Index. Jake Diekman 3.18 Hansel Robles 2.79 Ryan Brasier 2.39 Garre Whitlock 1.76 Kutter Crawford 1.36 Matt Strahm 1.01 Matt Barnes 0.90 Austin Davis 0.89 Hirok Sawamura 0.31 Phillips Valdez 0.19 Brasier vs. Samwmura is mysterious.
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Post by ortiz on Apr 14, 2022 12:16:59 GMT -5
Yes, a bunch of people have brought this up, despite there being zero evidence for it, and his being well known for getting along with his teammates and Cora, and the Occam's razor explanation being that the Sox just didn't offer as much money as Detroit, and Chaim Bloom himself saying that they weren't willing to offer as much money as Detroit. Obviously if the money was as far apart as it seems, that's reason #1, but I also wonder if E-Rod was tired of being called out publicly by his "second father" (Eddie's words at one point). AC's tough love yielded results but maybe it wore on Eddie. Also, one thing I learned the other day is that E-Rod and fellow countryman Miggy Cabrera are tight, so maybe there was some lobbying there.
Both of those things could have factored into Eddie making his decision as early in FA as he did. If it was just the money, maybe he waits a bit for an even bigger offer.
My original point was that we just don't really know and always blaming the gm ignores that there are two sides to a negotiation.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 14, 2022 20:36:19 GMT -5
In the two years before joining Boston, Uehara put up a 1.75 ERA/2.67 xFIP and a 2.35 ERA/2.33 xFIP. Compare that to Robles' 4.91 ERA/4.74 xFIP and 10.26 (!) ERA/5.20 xFIP pre-Boston seasons. Uehara's issue was that he was a 37 YO skinny Japanese guy averaging 89 mph on his fastball with injury issues, which resulted in teams overlooking his elite performance when healthy. Meanwhile, Robles is a 31 YO stocky Dominican guy averaging 97 on his fastball, which resulted in him getting a shot despite putting up pretty bad recent performance. Other than that they're pretty much the same guy! My main point was that both were about the 5th or 6th option to become closer heading into the season.
Obviously, Caballo Blanco hasn't been anointed the closer yet and even if he were he'd still have a long way to go before you could really mention him in the same breath as Koji. But a fan can dream.
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