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Post by jaffinator on Jul 23, 2022 18:25:39 GMT -5
Also, I've been a vocal proponent of Jacob Gonzalez on this board but it's worth tracking two things this upcoming season.
1) If his low babip this season was in part due to weakness against the shift. He hit a lot of hard grounders to the right side of the infield that played poorly against a heavy shift.
2) If he can crack the code a little bit on breaking balls low and away, especially against lefty pitchers. Looked very vulnerable at times there.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 23, 2022 18:26:36 GMT -5
Someone should look at the top 100 pitchers now and count how many of them need TJS in the next year.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 23, 2022 21:44:10 GMT -5
Someone should look at the top 100 pitchers now and count how many of them need TJS in the next year. I’m reading Keith Law’s The Inside Game and he has a whole chapter essentially on the draft. The part that really caught my eye was a study of all first rounders from 1985-2012 who’ve put up at least a 10 WAR. The breakdown was dismal for High School pitchers, especially: 16.9% of all HS pitchers selected. College pitchers were a bit better at 24.6% of all college pitchers selected. High school position players were at 26% of those selected, and college hitters rounded out at 35.8% of all college hitters taken. For those of use who are Mayer fans, take heart. High school hitters taken with the top 10 selections of the first round achieve at least 10 WAR 38.9% of the time (vs. college hitters, who hit that mark an even 50% of the time). Long story short, base rates show high school players in selected in the first round have about a 75-83% chance of never having even a 10 WAR MLB career. Even college first rounders are prone to never getting to the modest 10WAR mark 64-75% of the time. The drop off is cliff-like in second rounds and beyond. When Law asked execs why, despite the base rates and high failure rates, teams continued to take high school pitchers in particular in the first round, answers ranged from, paraphrased “They think they’re smarter than everyone who came before them” to variations on “hubris” “FOMO” and “they’re stupid or arrogant or both (because they’re ignoring decades of data).” Couple or three other interesting chapters for anyone who like data analysis and baseball, too
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 23, 2022 22:41:25 GMT -5
Someone should look at the top 100 pitchers now and count how many of them need TJS in the next year. I’m reading Keith Law’s The Inside Game and he has a whole chapter essentially on the draft. The part that really caught my eye was a study of all first rounders from 1985-2012 who’ve put up at least a 10 WAR. The breakdown was dismal for High School pitchers, especially: 16.9% of all HS pitchers selected. College pitchers were a bit better at 24.6% of all college pitchers selected. High school position players were at 26% of those selected, and college hitters rounded out at 35.8% of all college hitters taken. For those of use who are Mayer fans, take heart. High school hitters taken with the top 10 selections of the first round achieve at least 10 WAR 38.9% of the time (vs. college hitters, who hit that mark an even 50% of the time). Long story short, base rates show high school players in selected in the first round have about a 75-83% chance of never having even a 10 WAR MLB career. Even college first rounders are prone to never getting to the modest 10WAR mark 64-75% of the time. The drop off is cliff-like in second rounds and beyond. When Law asked execs why, despite the base rates and high failure rates, teams continued to take high school pitchers in particular in the first round, answers ranged from, paraphrased “They think they’re smarter than everyone who came before them” to variations on “hubris” “FOMO” and “they’re stupid or arrogant or both (because they’re ignoring decades of data).” Couple or three other interesting chapters for anyone who like data analysis and baseball, too All interesting, but it’s not exactly the most fair analysis. Draft choices are based on relativity between risk and potential so it’s a dynamic scale in which these stats are already factored in (and they slide over time as the league changes or adapts).
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2022 0:26:08 GMT -5
Agree.
But perhaps the history indicates that the risk of a high school arm far outweighs the potential it presents. At least, in the first round.
Or for every Jon Lester or Clayton Kershaw, there are literally hundreds of Trey Balls and Bobby Bradleys.
It may be better to let others take the high potential but high risk player there and put your money and hopes in a college bat or at least a college pitcher in the first round and then if you want to roll the dice on an upside HS arm, do it later in the draft.
At least, that's what the data he presented says.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 24, 2022 9:37:56 GMT -5
I mean what people are ignoring to some degree is that you don't get to just play the 10 players you most want to in an MLB game. You have to play a pitcher, no matter what. So yes, pitchers are riskier, but you literally need them to be able to play the game and so pitchers will continue to be overdrafted relative to risk. Then why aren't only college pitchers drafted? Well, because there simply isn't enough of them to satisfy demand. So yes, pitchers are overdrafted relative to WAR, and it's certainly possible we haven't achieved equilibrium on HS pitcher draft position, but WAR obscures the dynamics at play here to some degree, and it is not trivial to simply have a replacement level starting pitcher.
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Post by greekgodofpancakes on Jul 25, 2022 10:23:06 GMT -5
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 25, 2022 12:29:08 GMT -5
Would be interesting if they FINALLY pick another HS arm and it's a MA guy at the very top of the draft.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 26, 2022 16:44:32 GMT -5
I’ve watched the entire streams of the PG National Showcase on YouTube … I know I know but listen I did it in my spare time. One guy that I expect will move up significantly from now til the draft is Arjun Nimmala who is also one of the youngest players in the class.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 26, 2022 19:02:05 GMT -5
I’ve watched the entire streams of the PG National Showcase on YouTube … I know I know but listen I did it in my spare time. One guy that I expect will move up significantly from now til the draft Arjun Nimmala who is also one of the youngest players in the class. Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 26, 2022 19:11:06 GMT -5
I’ve watched the entire streams of the PG National Showcase on YouTube … I know I know but listen I did it in my spare time. One guy that I expect will move up significantly from now til the draft Arjun Nimmala who is also one of the youngest players in the class. Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? I have no idea really I do remember the Pirates signed two guys from India IIRC but don’t know about domestic players.
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Post by keninten on Jul 26, 2022 23:01:41 GMT -5
I’ve watched the entire streams of the PG National Showcase on YouTube … I know I know but listen I did it in my spare time. One guy that I expect will move up significantly from now til the draft Arjun Nimmala who is also one of the youngest players in the class. Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? Jacoby Ellsbury
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 26, 2022 23:36:41 GMT -5
I’ve watched the entire streams of the PG National Showcase on YouTube … I know I know but listen I did it in my spare time. One guy that I expect will move up significantly from now til the draft Arjun Nimmala who is also one of the youngest players in the class. Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? Jonathan India signed in the first round back in 2018
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 27, 2022 0:04:53 GMT -5
Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? Jacoby Ellsbury The subcontinent guyz
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 27, 2022 11:01:21 GMT -5
Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? I have no idea really I do remember the Pirates signed two guys from India IIRC but don’t know about domestic players. One of those players is a WWE pro wrestler now.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 27, 2022 11:04:30 GMT -5
Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? I have no idea really I do remember the Pirates signed two guys from India IIRC but don’t know about domestic players. Which was the basis for this decent movie Million Dollar Arm: www.imdb.com/title/tt1647668They were cricket players who had never played baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 27, 2022 11:08:18 GMT -5
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Post by costpet on Jul 27, 2022 11:27:05 GMT -5
The way we’re playing now, we might get another #4 pick next year. Or even better.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 27, 2022 11:56:31 GMT -5
I’ve watched the entire streams of the PG National Showcase on YouTube … I know I know but listen I did it in my spare time. One guy that I expect will move up significantly from now til the draft Arjun Nimmala who is also one of the youngest players in the class. Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? Karan Patel was drafted in the 7th rd by the White Sox in 2019 (he's currently a relief pitcher in high A ball). I believe he was the first, and highest, drafted player of Indian (South Asian) ancestry to be before Kumar Rocker. Jeff Bronkey pitched for the Rangers and Brewers. He was born in Afghanistan and is half Afghan. I believe he is the only South Asian player in MLB history.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 27, 2022 21:06:29 GMT -5
Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? Karan Patel was drafted in the 7th rd by the White Sox in 2019 (he's currently a relief pitcher in high A ball). I believe he was the first, and highest, drafted player of Indian (South Asian) ancestry to be before Kumar Rocker. Jeff Bronkey pitched for the Rangers and Brewers. He was born in Afghanistan and is half Afghan. I believe he is the only South Asian player in MLB history. Oh, I didn't realize that Rocker's mom's parents from India.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 29, 2022 0:28:09 GMT -5
I like Enrique Bradfield and Thomas White
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 29, 2022 8:15:48 GMT -5
Has there ever been a player with Indian ancestry picked in the first round? Or even day 1? Karan Patel was drafted in the 7th rd by the White Sox in 2019 (he's currently a relief pitcher in high A ball). I believe he was the first, and highest, drafted player of Indian (South Asian) ancestry to be before Kumar Rocker. Jeff Bronkey pitched for the Rangers and Brewers. He was born in Afghanistan and is half Afghan. I believe he is the only South Asian player in MLB history. Yale Pitcher Rohan Handa was drafted in the 5th round last yr by the Giants. He famously went from throwing mid 80s, to working on his kinesiology to add velo and emerging out of the pandemic throwing 97. Yale didn't have a '21 season, but the Giants (who have always liked New England players in the draft) drafted him based on his summer league performance in the NECBL.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 29, 2022 9:53:29 GMT -5
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 29, 2022 17:47:02 GMT -5
If the season ended today where are we drafting middle?
Ok so 13 teams have worse records and one of those teams San Francisco is one game under 500.
One more thing to add all the teams worse than us, it’s like not even close. Tank city out there.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 30, 2022 0:54:53 GMT -5
Some scattered thoughts: 1) Wyatt Langford listed as a centerfielder is an... optimistic... call. Dylan Crews has better tools to fit there but I don't think he's gonna be able to do it as a pro either. 2) I had no idea Enrique Bradfield Jr. went to HS with Triston Casas, that's pretty sweet. 3) Feels like a needed correction on Brock Wilken, but out of the guys in 45ish tier he's got the best chance of ending up #1 overall, maybe along with Gelof.
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