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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 27, 2022 13:03:38 GMT -5
I'd actually be super curious about the draft strategy should a team ranked 13-15 win the lottery. Do you take the favorite to go 1-1 in a year where there's no Rutchman, Harper, Strasburg, etc, or do you go super underslot, take a guy that you were looking at in the teens, and spread out that 8 million in rounds 1-4, getting pretty much any tough HS signee left in each round?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 27, 2022 15:32:12 GMT -5
I'd actually be super curious about the draft strategy should a team ranked 13-15 win the lottery. Do you take the favorite to go 1-1 in a year where there's no Rutchman, Harper, Strasburg, etc, or do you go super underslot, take a guy that you were looking at in the teens, and spread out that 8 million in rounds 1-4, getting pretty much any tough HS signee left in each round? I'm thinking by April there will be a favorite to go #1 and we'll be irrationally pissed if the sox pass
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 27, 2022 16:13:54 GMT -5
I'd actually be super curious about the draft strategy should a team ranked 13-15 win the lottery. Do you take the favorite to go 1-1 in a year where there's no Rutchman, Harper, Strasburg, etc, or do you go super underslot, take a guy that you were looking at in the teens, and spread out that 8 million in rounds 1-4, getting pretty much any tough HS signee left in each round? The unsatisfying answer is that it probably depends on the specific guys, how the team has them evaluated, and their bonus demands. If there's an Adley you take Adley. But if you have a few guys close, there's a great opportunity to make the rest of your draft way better than it would have been by spreading that money.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 2, 2022 19:43:53 GMT -5
Worst case scenario is pick 14 Magic number to beat Minnesota for pick 13 is 2 If they lose out, then they'll pass any of the Angels, Cubs and Diamodnbacks that win out
Based on last year, the 13th slot would give them a slightly bigger bonus pool than this past year, pending any QO bonuses/penalties.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 3, 2022 13:51:02 GMT -5
Worst case scenario is pick 14 Magic number to beat Minnesota for pick 13 is 2 If they lose out, then they'll pass any of the Angels, Cubs and Diamodnbacks that win out Based on last year, the 13th slot would give them a slightly bigger bonus pool than this past year, pending any QO bonuses/penalties.
Just making sure, you mean worst pre-lottery scenario?
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 3, 2022 14:12:00 GMT -5
Well yeah. The real worst case scenario is Baltimore jumps us and gets the #1 pick again
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 5, 2022 18:52:10 GMT -5
Red Sox end up in the 14th spot for the lottery. Here are the odds at that spot:
1st - 0.8% 2nd - 0.9% 3rd - 1.0% 4th - 1.2% 5th - 1.4% 6th - 1.7%
14th - 78.9% 15th - 13.6% 16th - 0.6% 17th - >0.0% 18th - >0.0%
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Oct 5, 2022 20:28:32 GMT -5
So they have a 7% chance of picking in the top 6. Okay!
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 5, 2022 20:40:12 GMT -5
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Post by wOBA Fett on Oct 5, 2022 21:14:53 GMT -5
Did the Red Sox really win 3 straight to move from 13 to 14? How much in pool money did that cost us?
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Post by marrcus on Oct 5, 2022 21:56:12 GMT -5
^ Yes well Sox got rocked in Toronto, that wasn't going to continue v. a floundering TB club. I don't know if the Rays were tanking or they just played lousy in Sept/Oct but they will prob' do well in the playoffs. Such a poor season you would have liked to see the RS get 10-12.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2022 13:42:43 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 10, 2022 14:14:34 GMT -5
White would be a great story, but I wouldn't be too concerned with who they have them selecting or passing on. God knows there will be about 5 guys projected to go in the 1st that will undergo TJ surgery and change the landscape significantly. 2022 was a great example of that
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 414
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Post by badfishnbc on Oct 11, 2022 12:59:32 GMT -5
Watch Bitonti rake this spring and wind up the consensus #1. That's why I hate mocks this early on.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 4, 2022 11:00:43 GMT -5
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 4, 2022 12:13:05 GMT -5
I never want the Sox to draft lower than 25 ever again after this draft or until we can make trades in the 1st round.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 4, 2022 12:20:02 GMT -5
I never want the Sox to draft lower than 25 ever again after this draft or until we can make trades in the 1st round. Higher
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Post by jaffinator on Nov 7, 2022 10:06:57 GMT -5
Obviously a super early mock, but I hate Tre Morgan at 20 unless there's a monster breakout. Excited to see how the college pitching shakes out this season after Dollander.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 7, 2022 16:05:55 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 7, 2022 16:12:23 GMT -5
My biggest takeaway from these mock drafts is, thank god Julio Rodriguez is going to stop Adley from winning ROTY and getting the Orioles another 1st round pick
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 5, 2022 7:01:23 GMT -5
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Dec 5, 2022 9:44:33 GMT -5
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Post by bosox904 on Dec 5, 2022 9:47:07 GMT -5
Anyone think that if the Sox happen to land a lottery pick it could make them more likely to sign a player with a QO? The loss of slot value is probably as big of a deal as the picks. But if they happen to land a pick from 1-6, based on last year's slot values, they could gain $1,793,700 for the 6th pick and $4,603,100 for the 1st pick. Based on last year's slots losing a 2nd and 5th round pick would also cost them $1,749,500 in slot money. All these values are of course likely to be higher because of a number of factors, such as comp picks for QO players, CBA comp picks, comp picks for unsigned players etc.
Then they could in the 1st round either take BPA at slot value, or sign someone under slit and try pushing someone they would have liked in the 2nd round into the 3rd round(it doesn't happen often of course, but the Rangers were able to get Brock Porter to the 4th round last year.)
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 5, 2022 10:20:32 GMT -5
.8% that’s like…..1%
If it should happen once every 125 years why not this year???
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Post by natesp4 on Dec 5, 2022 16:55:06 GMT -5
I only learned today that there's a chance they get Top-6 not just Top-1, so my hopes are absolutely through the roof, 100% ready to feel pain when it doesn't pan out.
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