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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 9, 2022 14:35:02 GMT -5
Red Sox Low-A league over time: 2019: 1.18 SB attempts per game, 67.8% success rate 2021 with pick off rule as only rule change: 1.48 SB attempts per game, 77% success rate 2022 now adding bigger bases: 1.84 SB attempts per game, 79% success rate I would guess the big jump from 21 to 22 is more about teams still adjusting to the pick off rule than the bigger bases.
edit: They also added pitch clocks in '22, which may contribute to more SB
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2022 14:40:30 GMT -5
Yay pitch clock! Boo banning the shift! Yay bigger bases! Pickoff rule is meh! You need the pickoff rule for the pitch clock to have any teeth. Otherwise pitcher can just step off to reset it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2022 14:41:38 GMT -5
I never claim to be a very smart man but I wonder if the larger bases and the pick-off rule will add more value to speed??? This is the point. They want the game to get more athletic. More steals, more balls in play, etc.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 9, 2022 14:55:38 GMT -5
Not sure how to link, but recommend going to Fangraphs minor league leaderboards and clicking on "All Affiliated Minor Leagues" and sorting by SB
The best basestealers are close to unstoppable with this rule.
15 guys stole at least 50 SB, all over 80% success rate. 17 more in the 40's with at least 80% success rate. Royals had someone go 59-0
In 2019, there were 2 guys over 50 SB/80%, 2 more with SBs in the 40s with 80% success rate.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2022 15:03:44 GMT -5
Yay pitch clock! Boo banning the shift! Yay bigger bases! Pickoff rule is meh! You need the pickoff rule for the pitch clock to have any teeth. Otherwise pitcher can just step off to reset it. Then yay pickoff rule!
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 9, 2022 15:08:15 GMT -5
Not sure how to link, but recommend going to Fangraphs minor league leaderboards and clicking on "All Affiliated Minor Leagues" and sorting by SB The best basestealers are close to unstoppable with this rule. 15 guys stole at least 50 SB, all over 80% success rate. 17 more in the 40's with at least 80% success rate. Royals had someone go 59-0 In 2019, there were 2 guys over 50 SB/80%, 2 more with SBs in the 40s with 80% success rate. Be curious to see if this ends up impacting prospect valuations. Like did David Hamilton just become a much better bet to be a useful MLB player?
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 9, 2022 15:18:05 GMT -5
Minor leaguers have already been playing under the rules, so I think it might be baked in already for a guy like Hamilton.
There's so little basestealing in the majors right now. The leader right now has 30. Next year we might see a lot of guys over 40, and the leader in the 70's. Trevor Story is potentially a guy that could go nuts
Major league catchers that can't throw are in trouble.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 9, 2022 15:21:57 GMT -5
Minor leaguers have already been playing under the rules, so I think it might be baked in already for a guy like Hamilton. There's so little basestealing in the majors right now. The leader right now has 30. Next year we might see a lot of guys over 40, and the leader in the 70's. Trevor Story is potentially a guy that could go nuts Major league catchers that can't throw are in trouble. I guess, if people assumed this was about to happen in the Majors, it would be baked in. I guess it's just a surprise to me that it's happening right now, but it's probably not a huge shock to MLB teams.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 9, 2022 15:23:02 GMT -5
Now that fielders have to be on the dirt when the pitch is delivered, Duran lays down over 10,000 bunts this offseason in preparation to hit .375 with an average batted ball distance of 23 feet, right?
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Post by manfred on Sept 9, 2022 15:27:35 GMT -5
I like it. Maybe some things work maybe they don’t but having been to minor league games this year… the clock is great. Games move really quickly.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 9, 2022 15:29:40 GMT -5
So still no robot umps yet
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 9, 2022 15:31:49 GMT -5
Now that fielders have to be on the dirt when the pitch is delivered, Duran lays down over 10,000 bunts this offseason in preparation to hit .375 with an average batted ball distance of 23 feet, right? Freddie I still dont understand why he came up with the game plan he had. The beginning he was on fire. Just hitting the ball on the ground you could see infielders rushing there throws. I mean if he just learns to be a good bunter his time up at bat will mean more. Just make contact on the ground.
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shagworthy
Veteran
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 9, 2022 15:33:16 GMT -5
I don't like the limitation of checking on runners at a base, but I'm all for every infielder having a foot on the dirt, and 2 on each side of 2nd. I'm old school, so I don't really care about the pitch clock except for egregious cases. I don't think any of these will bring young fans back in the game though. As long as the 3 outcomes is prevalent the sport will be boring to many. There are no Gwynn's or Boggs anymore. The fact that Joey Gallo has a lucrative career in this iteration of the league is criminal. Until we address guys selling out for power over obp a 2 hour game isn't going to make this sport appealing, if it's 2 hours of K's with an occasional HR.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 9, 2022 15:35:32 GMT -5
Now that fielders have to be on the dirt when the pitch is delivered, Duran lays down over 10,000 bunts this offseason in preparation to hit .375 with an average batted ball distance of 23 feet, right? Freddie I still dont understand why he came up with the game plan he had. The beginning he was on fire. Just hitting the ball on the ground you could see infielders rushing there throws. I mean if he just learns to be a good bunter his time up at bat will mean more. Just make contact on the ground. All about just having him develop into a lefty slap hitter. 3rd baseman comes charging in after 3 straight bunts, boom, chopped it over his head
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2022 15:38:41 GMT -5
Personally, I like it, so if more value is now added to the run game, then there is also more value in controlling the run game too, right? I wonder if bloom had this in mind when trading for McGuire.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,535
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 9, 2022 15:40:11 GMT -5
Freddie I still dont understand why he came up with the game plan he had. The beginning he was on fire. Just hitting the ball on the ground you could see infielders rushing there throws. I mean if he just learns to be a good bunter his time up at bat will mean more. Just make contact on the ground. All about just having him develop into a lefty slap hitter. 3rd baseman comes charging in after 3 straight bunts, boom, chopped it over his head With his speed, he should have gotten the Willy Mays Hayes treatment every time he hit the ball in the air. He should have had to do pushups every time.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 9, 2022 15:48:48 GMT -5
I wonder how many more times Ted Williams would have hit .400 without the shift which seems to have been invented for him (by Lou Boudreau IIRC)? I like it, adds value to making contact and along with other things provides an laternative to the TTO boring style of play. It may take a few months for things to settle in, but once they do the game should get more exciting with more scoring as well.
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bigmarty58
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Post by bigmarty58 on Sept 9, 2022 15:58:03 GMT -5
Yes to every rule change except the base size. 90 feet between the bases was the standard in baseball since 1848!
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Sept 9, 2022 15:59:27 GMT -5
Now that fielders have to be on the dirt when the pitch is delivered, Duran lays down over 10,000 bunts this offseason in preparation to hit .375 with an average batted ball distance of 23 feet, right? There is no prohibition on being on the infield grass, just the outfield grass. You can still play in for the bunt. "The four infielders must be within the outer boundary of the infield (i.e. cleats in the dirt) when the pitcher is on the rubber." www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2022 16:06:33 GMT -5
Yes to every rule change except the base size. 90 feet between the bases was the standard in baseball since 1848! Part of the justification for the rule change is that this was never actually the case; because of the size of the bases it was never exactly 90 feet from first to second or from second to third.
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 9, 2022 16:30:12 GMT -5
I didn't read the whole thread, but the shifts haven't really done anything. "There is just one problem. There is no evidence that banning shifts actually improves batted ball outcomes. MLB implemented a number of experimental rules changes in the minors the last two seasons, essentially using the minors as a testing ground. Among them, MLB extensively tested restrictions on shifting. In 2021, all four infielders at Double-A were required to have both feet in the dirt during the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, two infielders were additionally required to be on either side of second base. The impact on balls in play was minimal no matter which restrictions were in place. In 2019, the batting average on balls in play was .305 across the Double-A levels. In 2021, with the shift restrictions in place, the batting average on balls in play was .308." www.baseballamerica.com/stories/banning-shifts-had-almost-no-effect-on-batted-ball-outcomes-in-the-minors/
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 9, 2022 16:46:47 GMT -5
I really like most of these rule changes but I'm concerned that the infield shift rules will push the game in the wrong direction.
There's a perception that the shift grants the defensive team a major advantage, but the results show only a minimal advantage against a specific type of hitter. The type that is hurt the most by the shift are dead-pull lefties, who are often 3-true-outcome types. As strikeouts and walks extend a game and are two of the factors which have lead to the game being less interesting/entertaining, the change should result in longer, and less entertaining, games.
All just to make a few people happy...I don't get it. One of the worst, and most short-sighted, sports rule changes in my lifetime (right up there with the NFL's replay system). I've always appreciated strategy and the ability for fielders to play anywhere, so it definitely worsens the game for my viewing experience and removes the chance for hitters to adjust to frequently-shifted defenses, which would have greatly improved the game as it would have meant more slap hitters hitting the ball the other way.
It's also disappointing that they haven't addressed the size of ball-parks, which is to blame for many of the games current issues. Or a choice to lower the mound slightly, which would greatly reduce strikeouts and lead to more offense.
At least the other rule changes seem to be a step in the right direction.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 9, 2022 16:52:52 GMT -5
I didn't read the whole thread, but the shifts haven't really done anything. "There is just one problem. There is no evidence that banning shifts actually improves batted ball outcomes. MLB implemented a number of experimental rules changes in the minors the last two seasons, essentially using the minors as a testing ground. Among them, MLB extensively tested restrictions on shifting. In 2021, all four infielders at Double-A were required to have both feet in the dirt during the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, two infielders were additionally required to be on either side of second base. The impact on balls in play was minimal no matter which restrictions were in place. In 2019, the batting average on balls in play was .305 across the Double-A levels. In 2021, with the shift restrictions in place, the batting average on balls in play was .308." www.baseballamerica.com/stories/banning-shifts-had-almost-no-effect-on-batted-ball-outcomes-in-the-minors/1. Propose Hypothesis 2. Test Hypothesis 3. Declare Hypothesis Correct (with no correlation to step 2) I've seen this quite a bit as statistical analysis within private industries (as part of my work) and sports alike.
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 9, 2022 17:04:57 GMT -5
Like the IF positioning rules. Even if minimal impact overall, the rule will level the playing field for left-handed pull sluggers like Ortiz and Williams.
The pitch clock will speed up games, but I am not sure that a speedier game will greatly change the interest level in the game or make me happier leaving the park. Going to a game is a five hour or longer experience. Saving twenty minutes is no big deal, but it can’t hurt either.
If basestealing becomes a near automatic success, it becomes a meaningless gesture. It is the element of risk that makes successful attempts exciting. Eight of eight stolen bases per game actually decreases the excitement of stolen bases.
But, along those lines, I wonder what the impact would be of pushing the mound back. Would that lead to higher BAs or BBS and thus more base runners. Better that than an almost automatic double for every batter reaching first.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 9, 2022 17:12:39 GMT -5
I think there still will be shifts, they're just trying to get rid of the exaggerated shifts. I still expect to see the short stop one step within the second base bag on his side and the third baseman moved way far over from the line on LHB. Opposite goes for RHB with first baseman and second baseman. Just no more 4 outfielders and leaving half the infield empty.
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