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4/16-4/18 Red Sox @ Indians Series Thread
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Post by station13 on Apr 17, 2013 23:09:38 GMT -5
Tazawa since 2012: 1.38ERA, 52IP, 53K, 5BB 10.6K/BB
Career as a reliever 60K/7BB or 8.57K/BB
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 17, 2013 23:24:35 GMT -5
Tazawa since 2012: 1.38ERA, 52IP, 53K, 5BB 10.6K/BB Career as a reliever 60K/7BB or 8.57K/BB For '12-'13, among relievers with at least 40 IP, that's the second best K/BB in baseball. Number one? Uehara. They've also got the two lowest BB percentages in the same sample. Tazawa takes the crown there though, beating out Uehara's 2.7% with a neat 2.6%. Not as sexy as Ks but boy do I love relievers (and pitchers in general) who don't walk anyone.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 18, 2013 0:06:16 GMT -5
It's good that we're all starting to get a feeling for how deep this pen is. Realize that this could all change with injuries, but for now there may not be any better in either league.
The disastrous season last year helped mask how phenomenal Tazawa was. Those of you who don't like advanced stats, turn your head away. He accumulated more VORP than Lester, in many fewer innings which is downright shocking. Looks like he's trying to do that again this year, though he may not make much headway given that Lester seems to have his mojo working again. And when he was signed, lots of posters marveled at how someone who barely gets it up to 90 could be as effective as Uehara. I still haven't figured it out but that two-pitch mix just freezes hitters.
It also looks like Bailey is putting it all back together, reclaiming his role at the end of the relief food-chain. Miller is no slouch given his limited role, and that's before we get to Breslow or Morales, both of whom can deal it up against left and right-handed hitting. Throw in Mortensen and Aceves for long/swing work and it's a wealth of talent, including what will probably be trade chips stashed for later.
We're just at the start of this thing, but that squad doesn't look too bad right now.
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Post by klostrophobic on Apr 18, 2013 0:08:34 GMT -5
It's a blessing in disguise that they have a veteran closer who isn't that good who can get the low-leverage innings in the 9th and they have elite guys who can pitch the 6/7/8 in any order with no problem.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 18, 2013 3:38:45 GMT -5
In Farrell's defense, he was clearly trying to manage the workload of the pen. We have a lot of games in a row and if things get out of whack we have a major problem. They appear to not consider Aceve's health with a major concern. Some teams do that from time to time. Just abuse pitchers and call them rubber armed and such until they ruin them. Ostensibly for the good of the team and generally it is for the good of the team if not for that player.
I agree with the above comments regarding this team having clear playoff potential. The starters and the pen have been outstanding and there is no reason to think they will not continue to be good. They have as good a chance of being healthy and such as other starting rotations and we do have Morales and Webster for depth. Even guys like Workman and Ranaudo might end up of some help before year end. And I actually think our depth is pretty decent as well. At SS, catcher, in the pen ...etc.
We don't have to be the best team in baseball to get into the playoffs. This team may very well be good enough and I've thought that way all winter BTW. We should have some faith in Lackey, Dempster and Doubront. They don't have to be the best 3,4,5 in baseball if Lester and Buchholz are strong but there is no reason to think that our 3,4,5 pitchers will have losing records. They have decent track records and Lackey probably does come back stronger than he was before after the TJ surgery. Morales had 3 good innings today. He can certainly help.
One thing which has been relatively unnoticed is that our projected boppers haven't really been bopping yet. Napoli, Ortiz, Middlebrooks, Gomes. We have done well but there is no reason to think that our hitting will be much of a problem this year. We've done it with relatively little power so far. Even Ellsbury seems to have been unlucky some as he is connecting but often hitting it right at people. He looks locked in to me and capable of putting up big numbers this year. And he usually starts slow. Was it just me or did Cleveland show that they had 2 decent left handers in the pen today. One of those guys could come in handy for some team before year end. Whoever thought Cleveland was going to be good should have their head examined.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 18, 2013 3:53:25 GMT -5
I know it's way to small a sample size to be truly meaningful but so far Victorino's UZR/150 is +69.6 with a DRS of 4 runs saved. And I don't think that counts this game where he made a great catch and threw out another runner. The guy may well have been signed for more money than he was worth but so far he has earned every penny and more. The Sox seem to be very aware of the need to have a great defensive RF on their team. Maybe that was a significant part of the problem last year.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 18, 2013 5:45:29 GMT -5
Our pen doesn't have Breslow back yet either. I feel that if we had two lefties, that one of them would have been used in the 6th. He was probably holding Miller for a later AB. We've got two closer, two scintillating Japanese mid-relievers, two lefties(Miller and Breslow), and two longmen. One lefty(Morales - Started rehab) and one righty(Mortenson). Don't know where Aceves ends up and there's always that Bard guy. Oh, and Alex Wilson looks pretty good so far sss.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2013 6:39:33 GMT -5
I know it's way to small a sample size to be truly meaningful but so far Victorino's UZR/150 is +69.6 with a DRS of 4 runs saved. Three months is too small a sample size. Less than three weeks is frankly just laughable. Don't ever do this.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 18, 2013 7:43:46 GMT -5
I think you're trying too hard to be the anti-homer. Yeah, that's what I was told when I kept saying Josh Beckett wasn't an ace. For cryin' out loud, John Lackey hasn't been good in years and he had his arm blow up before he could even get through his first start. And Alfredo Aceves is his replacement. And we're talking about how we have one of the better rotations in the league? It's crazy talk. It is sometimes amazing to see (and feel) the emotional ebb & flow here. One day we "stink" and two weeks later, we will sweep the Series. We have had a great start and it appears that Sox management has played an important role in getting Farrell, perhaps Nieves and players with chutzpa. Lackey is uncertain but I hold out greater hope than you do. His velocity was higher than the past two years and his control was excellent coming off TJ. Doubront is sort of like Dice K. It is hard to tell whether he doesn't have good control or is just nibbling. For now, at least, we are seeing a repeat of last year...a 5 inning 100 pitch pitcher with a 4.50 ERA. SSS with Dempster but he looks solid. My greatest concern, outside of injury, is burning out the pen because our starters (other than Buch) can't be counted on regularly giving 6-7 innings. If Demp, Lester & Lackey (Morales?--not a great history there) can get us to the 7th, I have greater hope. Outside of Napoli tho, I don't see a consistent power threat and it presently looks like Middlebrooks 'has been found out' by opposing pitching.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 18, 2013 8:06:23 GMT -5
pen last night went 4 innings, 0 hits, 0 walks, 8 k's...delightful
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 18, 2013 8:33:50 GMT -5
pen last night went 4 innings, 0 hits, 0 walks, 8 k's...delightful Mortenson and Wilson were 4IP 2H 0R 0ER 2BB 2K the night before. Didn't get the k's. But, didn't give up any runs either. Hope we get 7-8 out of Lester tonight. Bring the team home with a sweep about to start a 10gm homestead.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 18, 2013 8:47:45 GMT -5
It's good that we're all starting to get a feeling for how deep this pen is. Realize that this could all change with injuries, but for now there may not be any better in either league. The disastrous season last year helped masked how phenomenal Tazawa was. Those of you who don't like advanced stats, turn your head away. He accumulated more VORP than Lester, in many fewer innings which is downright shocking. Looks like he's trying to do that again this year, though he may not make much headway given that Lester seems to have his mojo working again. And when he was signed, lots of posters marveled at how someone who barely gets it up to 90 could be as effective as Uehara. I still haven't figured it out but that two-pitch mix just freezes hitters. It also looks like Bailey is putting it all back together, reclaiming his role at the end of the end of the relief food-chain. Miller is no slouch given his limited role, and that's before we get to Breslow or Morales, both of whom can deal it up against left and right-handed hitting. Throw in Mortensen and Aceves for long/swing work and it's a wealth of talent, including what will probably be trade chips stashed for later. We're just at the start of this thing, but that squad doesn't look too bad right now. The impressive thing is that they DO have quite a few injuries right now, and the pen is still good. Their closer is on the DL, two lefties (Breslow and Morales) haven't even started their season yet, and one reliever is starting now in place of a starter on the DL. This is a fairly significant rash of injuries ... sure, you could come up with a more outlandish situation, but that would start to get into real outlier territory. But the pen is not nearly as deep as it could be because of this, which is why Farrell tried to squeeze an extra inning out of Aceves last night. Bailey and the guys from the land of the rising sun are the dependable guys now, and there's a pretty significant drop off to the next guys in the pen.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 18, 2013 9:01:35 GMT -5
Outside of Napoli tho, I don't see a consistent power threat and it presently looks like Middlebrooks 'has been found out' by opposing pitching. Middlebrooks's strikeouts are up a little, but I am not too shocked. I believe I have compared him to Dave Kingman before, and I still think its an apt comparison: Middlebrooks is going to strikeout a ton, have 30 homers, and have an OBP around or slightly less than .300. If he improves his BABIP, he will be what you would expect. With his defense at third, he is a very useful player, but he should not be hitting higher than 7th at this point. Hopefully in the future he can cut down on the strikeouts and improve the walks.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 18, 2013 9:07:23 GMT -5
Outside of Napoli tho, I don't see a consistent power threat and it presently looks like Middlebrooks 'has been found out' by opposing pitching. Middlebrooks's strikeouts are up a little, but I am not too shocked. I believe I have compared him to Dave Kingman before, and I still think its an apt comparison: Middlebrooks is going to strikeout a ton, have 30 homers, and have an OBP around or slightly less than .300. If he improves his BABIP, he will be what you would expect. With his defense at third, he is a very useful player, but he should not be hitting higher than 7th at this point. Hopefully in the future he can cut down on the strikeouts and improve the walks. He's receiving a pretty steady diet of pitches painting the outside corner. He's putting some of these into play, often flying out to opposite field....but hopefully he can make adjustments sooner than later.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2013 9:22:07 GMT -5
It's a shame Daniel Bard hasn't gotten his **** together yet. Farrell clearly doesn't trust Wright in any meaningful situation, and after two five-inning starts, the bullpen is a bit spent. It's also another eleven games before the next off-day and Hanrahan won't be eligible to return off the DL until then, so we've got to hope that the starters can pitch deep into games. The Red Sox have far too many players on their 40-man roster who aren't ready to help at the major league level. Britton, Vazquez, Bard, Butler, Hassan... they left themselves too little room to operate when injuries hit.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 18, 2013 9:51:48 GMT -5
Farrell said before the game yesterday that Hanrahan wouldn't necessarily return as the closer. I think he was right to stick by him when he did, and this feels correct as well. You've got three guys absolutely dealing - you want your job back? Show the team you deserve it.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2013 9:59:10 GMT -5
Having a closer is so unnecessarily limiting. Tazawa got the most important outs of the game, but Bailey gets credit for the save. I'd almost rather the 4th best reliever on the team had the closer job, so that the better pitchers are freed up to get important outs.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 18, 2013 10:37:56 GMT -5
I know it's way to small a sample size to be truly meaningful but so far Victorino's UZR/150 is +69.6 with a DRS of 4 runs saved. Three months is too small a sample size. Less than three weeks is frankly just laughable. Don't ever do this. I understood and stated exactly what I was doing and frankly, take a hike. I don't need your sanctioned approval. So far Victorino's defensive metrics are off the charts league leading in virtually every important defensive metric in RF. Assists. UZR/150. DRS. If he is not at the absolute top in each category he is very near to it. Early indications are that this team is good. Deal with it.
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Post by jmei on Apr 18, 2013 11:35:07 GMT -5
Yeah, even if we can't use Victorino's SSS UZR in a projection or expect him to come anywhere close to sustaining it, it's still impressive how good he's been in right field the first fourteen games. It's like Middlebrooks' three homer game-- it doesn't really mean anything going forward, but it's still damn impressive.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 18, 2013 12:17:42 GMT -5
Having a closer is so unnecessarily limiting. Tazawa got the most important outs of the game, but Bailey gets credit for the save. I'd almost rather the 4th best reliever on the team had the closer job, so that the better pitchers are freed up to get important outs. I agree with this premise and agreed with the "closer by committee" premise as well for the same reasons. I think the issue with this is in most cases teams don't have the amount of quality arms needed to make it work nor do they have the arms with the right mindsets to accomplish this. This bullpen feels different. There are multiple guys (including a healthy Hanrahan) who can get big time outs and they seem to have the ability to realize that the 7th inning is just as important as the 9th. A guy like Papelbon is too dumb and ignorant to understand this, while Bailey and the rest seem to get "it". I guess the question then becomes, if you have that many good guys then why not just slot them and let them work where they are slotted since they are all incredibly effective?
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 18, 2013 12:26:24 GMT -5
Teams never have enough quality pen arms to really do closer by committee/matchups. The philosophy gets a bad name because it's usually done by teams who don't have one great arm in the pen, let alone the 3-4 it takes to truly be effective
I don't see any team going to it for a considerable amount of time in it's true form. That being said, you can argue that having a quick hook on the closer in individual games or in that closer role in general is some form of closer by committee, inserting the guy that is "hot" at that time. This is what I think the Sox should, will, and are doing. If you suck at closing games, or any other point in relief, you will drop down a peg. It's nice that at least for now, they appear to have the depth to do that, and thats remarkable considering they are still missing multiple RPs
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2013 12:39:06 GMT -5
The bigger problem is the one inning and out mentality. Farrell used Tazawa for two last night, which was good, and I know he's committed to not pushing Uehara for more than an inning, but for the most part these are guys who can go two, three innings. The best pitcher in a bullpen is needed much more in a one-run or tie game in the seventh than with a three run lead in the ninth.
Pretend, for a second, that the Red Sox didn't have Tazawa and Uehara - their bullpen was Bailey, and then a dropoff to the Miller/Mortensen/Wilson types. In yesterday's game, who would've come in to get those important outs in the sixth? It certainly wouldn't have been Bailey, despite him being by far the best pitcher out there. They would've been saving him for the ninth inning. That's crazy! They'd be saving him for a situation, just in case those worse pitchers were able to get the game to him.
Farrell has an advantage, in that he has three excellent relievers. Frankly, it was the same advantage LaRussa had in 1988, when he created the modern ninth-inning closer with Eckersley. The strategy worked because he had four relievers who pitched over 70 innings with a sub-3.50 ERA. But Greg Cadaret and Eric Plunk never got any of the credit for it working, because Eckersley got the saves.
With all of the advances that statistical analysis has brought to the game, it honestly boggles my mind that the sub-optimal ninth inning closer usage patterns still continue to happen. If anything, bullpen usage has become more unnecessarily rigid, rather than less. I mean, teams have a "seventh inning guy." Seriously?
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Post by awall on Apr 18, 2013 13:10:30 GMT -5
I still think we overpaid, but I have to admit I am really glad we have Victorino on this team.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 18, 2013 13:16:41 GMT -5
I still think we overpaid, but I have to admit I am really glad we have Victorino on this team. Straight cash homey $$$ Shouldn't bother any of us what he's making. He didn't cost the team a prospect or a pick. Isn't going to prevent the team from trading for or signing anyone else.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Apr 18, 2013 14:01:18 GMT -5
The only time the money matters to me is when it prevents a trade when things aren't working or when the front office admits its the reason why poor performance is tolerated (see theo on Lugo).
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