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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Feb 4, 2016 14:53:56 GMT -5
Good call, I wonder if they have a forum too? I need a place to present my 3 mid level prospects for Chris Sale trade
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 7, 2016 12:47:16 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 7, 2016 13:01:29 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 7, 2016 13:33:23 GMT -5
Very interesting.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 7, 2016 13:51:31 GMT -5
Shaw strikes me as a guy who's going to beat all his prospect projections. Not in the same way as Pujolz or Donaldson has, but I do see him as a future everyday starter.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 7, 2016 18:24:59 GMT -5
Shaw strikes me as a guy who's going to beat all his prospect projections. Not in the same way as Pujolz or Donaldson has, but I do see him as a future everyday starter. Agreed. Ever since his AFL performance where he topped the exit velocity charts and put up a nearly identical line to Kris Bryant, I've thought he could be a solid, even occasionally outstanding, MLB hitter.
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pd
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Post by pd on Mar 7, 2016 18:53:12 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 7, 2016 18:55:56 GMT -5
Well he never really got to break out of his slump in AAA before he got called up, so his AAA numbers are a lot uglier than they would've been had he stayed in Pawtucket most likely. He's a peculiar case, but I like his swing too provided he can shorten it enough to prevent his inner third.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 7, 2016 20:17:30 GMT -5
Updated the chart with the 20-pt window over Shaw's career for four different metrics. This takes it through the end of last season. His OPS eventually floated back down to his minor league numbers, but that's not bad at all for his first year in the majors. If he moves up from there, and there's no reason to think he's peaked, he's an asset and a very good one to have around (click to enlarge):
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 7, 2016 22:45:14 GMT -5
Shaw had a .241 EqA AAA-MLE and a .282 in MLB. That's a massive difference. Overall, he was .259. Now, I ran his numbers on August 22, when he was two days into his slump, and at that point his overall figure was .261. If you were being Statistically Correct, you would swear that what he did from then onward -- .228 / .293 / .409 -- more or less represents his true talent level. But when you look at his season, this is what you get. The figures are estimated EqA's from OBP and SA, and the AAA figures are raw, not MLE's. .204 AAA, 137 PA, 33 G .317 AAA, 108 PA, 25 G recalled by the Red Sox for 1 G, back to Paw for 2, back to Bos where he had 6 PA in 6 days, back to Pawtucket .202 all, 92 PA, 27 G, recalled again .380 MLB, 72 PA, 18 G .139 MLB, 45 PA, 12 G .362 MLB, 66 PA, 14 G .174 MLB, 49 PA, 12 G Here's what jumps out at you: -- It's really hard to explain this pattern as random variation. And this is a case where you don't have to cherry-pick the endpoints to the streaks: the cherries hurl themselves off the trees and try to hit you in the mouth. -- The 138 hot PA in MLB are immensely better than the 108 hot PA in AAA. Some of that could be the result of having scouting information on the opposing starter, but the difference is so large that some of it has to be random, or opponents not using scouting information on him. -- His MLB cold streaks, however, seem about in line with his AAA cold streaks. -- He fixed his MLB slump in one-third of the time that he took in AAA. Manny used to fix his slumps in about 12 games, too. I think it's reasonable yet optimistic to think that his MLB hot streaks might be as good raw-number wise as his AAA hot streak. That still makes him significantly better in MLB than in AAA, but not by a crazy amount. OTOH, I think he was unlucky in his ratio of hot and cold in MLB; the season ended presumably when he was just ready to get hot again. If you add another 18 games at .317, you get a .268 TAv rather than the .259 he actually put up. I'm as yet unwilling to push my sense of his true MLB hit talent above .270. This estimate makes him below-average as a hitter at 1B, but a bit above average as a 3B. There's little question in my mind that he's good enough to start in MLB, and probably at either position. He could absolutely start for a contender and be a guy who doesn't help you but doesn't hurt you. Most contenders have a couple such guys in their lineups. He hasn't yet shown that he's good enough to be a desirable trade target or to figure in our future plans. But in the meantime, he's a hell of a guy to have on the bench, a guy who gives you Brockstar-quality backup at 1B and DH and someone to push Sandoval for his starting job. (Note that his platoon pattern has varied so much that I'm not even bothering to factor it in, since the samples are too small. He originally had a very small split, then got a big one when he altered his swing, but he crushed LHP in MLB. Right now, he doesn't seem like a guy who needs to be platooned.)
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Post by costpet on Mar 10, 2016 8:38:06 GMT -5
If I'm Panda, I'm getting very nervous.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Mar 10, 2016 10:10:59 GMT -5
If I'm Panda, I'm getting very nervous. Agree. He looked bad yesterday & Shaw continues to impress. I would hope Pablo has some sense of urgency & does not mail it in knowing he's got his contract. I know Pablo is working hard ( ) & he may have some sort of eating disorder & it may not be his fault & so on. I know we have a ways to go in ST, it just smells of a Carl Crawford lite contract going south quick.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 10, 2016 11:47:32 GMT -5
Has Shaw worked out at 3B at all this spring, let alone played there in games? I can't recall. I'm not sold that he will be able to play there considering his small sample size there last year, albeit that he didn't look bad.
Another thing to think about is that if power really does develop last, maybe Shaw is just learning to fully use his large frame now. Not to say he didn't have power in the minors, but perhaps at his age he's just growing into more now. That could definitely help him become a much more dangerous hitter. Sometimes players' tools take big steps forward mid-season. These things can just happen and aren't easy to pinpoint/explain. I remain cautiously optimistic on Shaw.
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Post by soxfanatic on Mar 10, 2016 13:26:57 GMT -5
Has Shaw worked out at 3B at all this spring, let alone played there in games? I can't recall. I'm not sold that he will be able to play there considering his small sample size there last year, albeit that he didn't look bad. Another thing to think about is that if power really does develop last, maybe Shaw is just learning to fully use his large frame now. Not to say he didn't have power in the minors, but perhaps at his age he's just growing into more now. That could definitely help him become a much more dangerous hitter. Sometimes players' tools take big steps forward mid-season. These things can just happen and aren't easy to pinpoint/explain. I remain cautiously optimistic on Shaw. Early in camp he actually worked more at third base than first. In games it has been 50/50 I'd say.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 10, 2016 13:28:38 GMT -5
Has Shaw worked out at 3B at all this spring, let alone played there in games? I can't recall. I'm not sold that he will be able to play there considering his small sample size there last year, albeit that he didn't look bad. Another thing to think about is that if power really does develop last, maybe Shaw is just learning to fully use his large frame now. Not to say he didn't have power in the minors, but perhaps at his age he's just growing into more now. That could definitely help him become a much more dangerous hitter. Sometimes players' tools take big steps forward mid-season. These things can just happen and aren't easy to pinpoint/explain. I remain cautiously optimistic on Shaw. Early in camp he actually worked more at third base than first. In games it has been 50/50 I'd say. Well sh*t. I have to start paying attention.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 10, 2016 13:39:47 GMT -5
Early in camp he actually worked more at third base than first. In games it has been 50/50 I'd say. Well sh*t. I have to start paying attention. He also played 3B two days ago against the Orioles.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 10, 2016 13:55:36 GMT -5
He also played 3rd 8 times last year in the majors and played third in 113 games across 5 seasons in the minors and winter ball according to BR (compared to 442 at 1st). So it's not exactly a new position to him. I think 3rd was his primary position at Kent State too
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 10, 2016 14:00:47 GMT -5
I'd be lying if I didn't say that there's a big part of me that hopes Sandoval flops and is replaced by May 1st with a hot hitting Travis Shaw that the Sox can't sit down. The other part of the equation would be that Hanley would have to be 1) healthy, 2) hitting well, and 3) adequate at 1b.
I think the Sox best chance for a thunderous lineup has Hanley at 1b and Shaw at 3b (or flip flopped if things really go wrong with Sandoval and Hanley's defense.)
I think with Sandoval, you might get a .270 BA, a .300 OBP and a .400 SA with acceptable defense, and I have that as his best case scenario at this point. I don't see him approaching his early career numbers.
Shaw, if he indeed is the hitter he was in the majors last season, could be a LH power bat hitting 25 homers with an acceptable .270ish BA and a decent amount of walks. And I think he present a higher ceiling possibility scenario.
Shaw putting up those numbers, following a normal reasonably healthy Hanley season would make the lineup very strong behind the top 4 and give the Sox another badly needed LH power bat.
Of course it is reasonable to ask would Shaw handle 3b acceptably well? With Sandoval, Hanley, and Holt as the other alternatives, the bar for Shaw to be better is reasonably low.
I think that's one of the best things that could happen for the Sox this year, a little bit like Hanrahan being ineffective and injured and Bailey getting injured in 2013 leading to Koji's chance at the closer role. But to get to that scenario you need to struggle first unfortunately. Just hope it doesn't go on too long.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 10, 2016 14:23:30 GMT -5
He also played 3rd 8 times last year in the majors and played third in 113 games across 5 seasons in the minors and winter ball according to BR (compared to 442 at 1st). So it's not exactly a new position to him. I think 3rd was his primary position at Kent State too This I knew, but it doesn't mean he can hang there in the majors.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 14, 2016 13:56:28 GMT -5
Shaw is going to be a big part of this team beginning in 2017 anyway. With Papi retiring, the Sox are going to need some good platoons to keep the offense on track, and at the very least, Shaw will be a part of that.
Hopefully he starts pushing for playing time this year. With the inevitable injuries, I expect him to get plenty of at-bats unless he really struggles.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 15, 2016 8:44:21 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, if there's one thing we know, it's that spring training performance is a clear indicator of how the player will play the coming season.
Wait, what's that Alex? You've put a handy chart in your 108 Stitches that is useful here? Ok, let's look at it.
Spring training all-stars A look at the 22 Red Sox who hit .350 or better in at least 40 spring training at-bats over the last 10 years
Year Player Spring line Regular season 2015 Mookie Betts .429/.467/.750 .291/.341/.479 2015 Mike Napoli .400/.467/.875 .224/.324/.410 2015 Jackie Bradley Jr. .378/.462/.444 .249/.335/.498 2014 Will Middlebrooks .353/.389/.667 .191/.256/.265 2013 Jackie Bradley Jr. .419/.507/.613 .189/.280/.337 2012 Pedro Ciriaco .419/.444/.651 .293/.315/.390 2012 Cody Ross .370/.431/.826 .267/.326/.481 2012 Adrian Gonzalez .356/.412/.489 .299/.344/.463 2011 Jarrod Saltalamacchia .405/.465/.649 .235/.288/.450 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury .355/.385/.565 .321/.376/.552 2010 Jeremy Hermida .450/.500/.650 .203/.257/.348 2010 Josh Reddick .390/.413/.678 .194/.206/.323 2010 Kevin Youkilis .389/.424/.611 .307/.411/.564 2010 Dustin Pedroia .350/.359/.517 .288/.367/.493 2009 Jeff Bailey .356/.455/.600 .208/.330/.416 2009 Chris Carter .355/.380/.658 0-for-5 2008 Alex Cora .395/.439/.421 .270/.371/.349 2008 Joe Thurston .351/.415/.459 0-for-8, HBP 2007 Kevin Youkilis .368/.486/.579 .288/.390/.453 2007 J.D. Drew .356/.408/.600 .270/.373/.423 2006 Coco Crisp .434/.500/.623 .264/.317/.385 2006 Dustin Mohr .350/.422/.650 .175/.233/.350
Really guys, let's go easy on the "Panda needs to watch his back" stuff.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 15, 2016 9:17:25 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, if there's one thing we know, it's that spring training performance is a clear indicator of how the player will play the coming season. Wait, what's that Alex? You've put a handy chart in your 108 Stitches that is useful here? Ok, let's look at it. Spring training all-stars A look at the 22 Red Sox who hit .350 or better in at least 40 spring training at-bats over the last 10 years Year Player Spring line Regular season 2015 Mookie Betts .429/.467/.750 .291/.341/.479 2015 Mike Napoli .400/.467/.875 .224/.324/.410 2015 Jackie Bradley Jr. .378/.462/.444 .249/.335/.498 2014 Will Middlebrooks .353/.389/.667 .191/.256/.265 2013 Jackie Bradley Jr. .419/.507/.613 .189/.280/.337 2012 Pedro Ciriaco .419/.444/.651 .293/.315/.390 2012 Cody Ross .370/.431/.826 .267/.326/.481 2012 Adrian Gonzalez .356/.412/.489 .299/.344/.463 2011 Jarrod Saltalamacchia .405/.465/.649 .235/.288/.450 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury .355/.385/.565 .321/.376/.552 2010 Jeremy Hermida .450/.500/.650 .203/.257/.348 2010 Josh Reddick .390/.413/.678 .194/.206/.323 2010 Kevin Youkilis .389/.424/.611 .307/.411/.564 2010 Dustin Pedroia .350/.359/.517 .288/.367/.493 2009 Jeff Bailey .356/.455/.600 .208/.330/.416 2009 Chris Carter .355/.380/.658 0-for-5 2008 Alex Cora .395/.439/.421 .270/.371/.349 2008 Joe Thurston .351/.415/.459 0-for-8, HBP 2007 Kevin Youkilis .368/.486/.579 .288/.390/.453 2007 J.D. Drew .356/.408/.600 .270/.373/.423 2006 Coco Crisp .434/.500/.623 .264/.317/.385 2006 Dustin Mohr .350/.422/.650 .175/.233/.350
Really guys, let's go easy on the "Panda needs to watch his back" stuff. Why is this the narrative? I don't know why Speier brought up JBJ's 2014 spring training performance, because it would have been a lot more meaningful if he hit really well for half of 2013 like Shaw did last year. Shaw had 3.6 more fWAR than Pablo last year, that's why Pablo should watch his back. Pablo had a .036 ISO and 5 walks last year vs LHP last year. He shouldn't face LHP this year from the start of the season. And his leash vs RHP should be pretty short. He already used up an entire season of the benefit of the doubt.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 15, 2016 9:37:54 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, if there's one thing we know, it's that spring training performance is a clear indicator of how the player will play the coming season. Wait, what's that Alex? You've put a handy chart in your 108 Stitches that is useful here? Ok, let's look at it. Spring training all-stars A look at the 22 Red Sox who hit .350 or better in at least 40 spring training at-bats over the last 10 years Year Player Spring line Regular season 2015 Mookie Betts .429/.467/.750 .291/.341/.479 2015 Mike Napoli .400/.467/.875 .224/.324/.410 2015 Jackie Bradley Jr. .378/.462/.444 .249/.335/.498 2014 Will Middlebrooks .353/.389/.667 .191/.256/.265 2013 Jackie Bradley Jr. .419/.507/.613 .189/.280/.337 2012 Pedro Ciriaco .419/.444/.651 .293/.315/.390 2012 Cody Ross .370/.431/.826 .267/.326/.481 2012 Adrian Gonzalez .356/.412/.489 .299/.344/.463 2011 Jarrod Saltalamacchia .405/.465/.649 .235/.288/.450 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury .355/.385/.565 .321/.376/.552 2010 Jeremy Hermida .450/.500/.650 .203/.257/.348 2010 Josh Reddick .390/.413/.678 .194/.206/.323 2010 Kevin Youkilis .389/.424/.611 .307/.411/.564 2010 Dustin Pedroia .350/.359/.517 .288/.367/.493 2009 Jeff Bailey .356/.455/.600 .208/.330/.416 2009 Chris Carter .355/.380/.658 0-for-5 2008 Alex Cora .395/.439/.421 .270/.371/.349 2008 Joe Thurston .351/.415/.459 0-for-8, HBP 2007 Kevin Youkilis .368/.486/.579 .288/.390/.453 2007 J.D. Drew .356/.408/.600 .270/.373/.423 2006 Coco Crisp .434/.500/.623 .264/.317/.385 2006 Dustin Mohr .350/.422/.650 .175/.233/.350
Really guys, let's go easy on the "Panda needs to watch his back" stuff. Why is this the narrative? I don't know why Speier brought up JBJ's 2014 spring training performance, because it would have been a lot more meaningful if he hit really well for half of 2013 like Shaw did last year. Shaw had 3.6 more fWAR than Pablo last year, that's why Pablo should watch his back. Pablo had a .036 ISO and 5 walks last year vs LHP last year. He shouldn't face LHP this year from the start of the season. And his leash vs RHP should be pretty short. He already used up an entire season of the benefit of the doubt. How is going back precisely one- half season any different from going back to the start of ST? Yes, ST stats have no predictive meaning at all, while regular season stats do. OTOH, second-half stats versus full-year stats have no predictive value, either. Shaw's entire 2015 is worse than all but one of Sandoval's MLB seasons. There is no rational argument that Shaw projects to be better than Sandoval this year, which is why every projection system has Sandoval being better. Your argument that Shaw projects to be better begins with that conclusion and then tries to justify it. Now, the odds that Shaw might be better are not small. They might be as high as 40%. No one is arguing that Sandoval gets a free pass this year; I'd say he gets 6 weeks before we start to rethink the idea that he deserves to be the starting 3B. And in fact to put a guy with Sandoval's contract and track record on a six-week leash is extraordinary. All you do when you argue that he shouldn't get any leash at all is reveal that there's no rational basis to your argument. It's like going to a Bernie Sanders rally and arguing that we should take all of the money away from the rich and give it to the middle class. That's ceased to become an economic proposal and has become hatred. Oh, and while we're talking about hating a guy because he let his career go to pot because he was unwilling to do what it took to extend it, Jim Ed Rice's career went over a cliff prematurely when his eyes started going on him, and it was widely reported that he was resistant to getting his vision corrected. IIRC, he tried eyeglasses and/or contacts, couldn't get used to them, and gave up on them very quickly. How is that different from Sandoval not working out this winter? I guess the answer is that we know for certain that Rice punted any efforts to fix his eyesight problem, while the notion that Sandoval didn't work out this winter is based on a) claims of the sort that "his legs look fat" and b) poor ST performance. Do we detect a bit of a double standard here?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 15, 2016 10:12:55 GMT -5
Why is this the narrative? I don't know why Speier brought up JBJ's 2014 spring training performance, because it would have been a lot more meaningful if he hit really well for half of 2013 like Shaw did last year. Shaw had 3.6 more fWAR than Pablo last year, that's why Pablo should watch his back. Pablo had a .036 ISO and 5 walks last year vs LHP last year. He shouldn't face LHP this year from the start of the season. And his leash vs RHP should be pretty short. He already used up an entire season of the benefit of the doubt. How is going back precisely one- half season any different from going back to the start of ST? Yes, ST stats have no predictive meaning at all, while regular season stats do. OTOH, second-half stats versus full-year stats have no predictive value, either. Shaw's entire 2015 is worse than all but one of Sandoval's MLB seasons. There is no rational argument that Shaw projects to be better than Sandoval this year, which is why every projection system has Sandoval being better. Your argument that Shaw projects to be better begins with that conclusion and then tries to justify it. Now, the odds that Shaw might be better are not small. They might be as high as 40%. No one is arguing that Sandoval gets a free pass this year; I'd say he gets 6 weeks before we start to rethink the idea that he deserves to be the starting 3B. And in fact to put a guy with Sandoval's contract and track record on a six-week leash is extraordinary. All you do when you argue that he shouldn't get any leash at all is reveal that there's no rational basis to your argument. It's like going to a Bernie Sanders rally and arguing that we should take all of the money away from the rich and give it to the middle class. That's ceased to become an economic proposal and has become hatred. Oh, and while we're talking about hating a guy because he let his career go to pot because he was unwilling to do what it took to extend it, Jim Ed Rice's career went over a cliff prematurely when his eyes started going on him, and it was widely reported that he was resistant to getting his vision corrected. IIRC, he tried eyeglasses and/or contacts, couldn't get used to them, and gave up on them very quickly. How is that different from Sandoval not working out this winter? I guess the answer is that we know for certain that Rice punted any efforts to fix his eyesight problem, while the notion that Sandoval didn't work out this winter is based on a) claims of the sort that "his legs look fat" and b) poor ST performance. Do we detect a bit of a double standard here? I was pissed at Rice for not wearing glasses, but that has nothing to do with Sandoval. We didn't sign Rice as a free agent. I have no ties to Sandoval because he was never good for the Red Sox so that is where the double standard comes from. Being a fan isn't rational. Fans like and hate certain players based on more than advanced statistics. But it's pretty insane to compare two players 3 decades apart. I'm pretty sure that more people understand today the need to not be 80 pounds overweight than understand how important eyesight was in the 80s. There were a lot of stubborn people in baseball back then. My statement about no leash at all for Pablo was regarding facing LHP. Is there any projection whatsoever that anyone wants to make about him hitting better vs. LHP than Shaw this year? Regardless of any of that, I am personally predicting that Shaw will be better than Pablo this year and you're welcome to bump this and ridicule me later if I'm wrong. That has nothing to do at all with spring training. Unless you can actually see the future, I'm not wrong at this time.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 15, 2016 11:55:20 GMT -5
First let me say "I'm not a Panda fan"!
Unless is so ineffective defensively, the guy will get more than 6-weeks whether I or you like him. I believe Travis Shaw would be OK at 3rd, but his range will never be elite either. I like the way Shaw is using the whole field this spring. He showed last year over the 2nd half that HE DOES HAVE SOME POWER. Personally that surprised me. I have definitely been a culprit on here on bashing his chances. I admit I am wrong about him being a serviceable player in the majors.
Even so.....I'm not sold quite yet he is the answer yet at a corner infield spot for the Sox. I do like his versatility. I think this is his "card" to eventually getting into the line-up on a consistent basis. I would be SHOCKED if he doesn't make the 25.
I think his best chance of wrestling the 3rd base job away from Pablo "17%" Sandoval is to take total advantage of his opportunities at 1st, 3rd, and left. If 17% is as poor as last year and Shaw plays well over the1st 2 to 3 months, Farrell (or who ever is manager) will insert him on a regular basis at 3rd. Travis Shaw, maybe unfairly, will have to fight for every minute on the field this year. He was not a top prospect nor was he a player the Sox had great hopes for. Because of this and 17%'s salary.....we will all have to wait...and hope that 17% has a resurgence.
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