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Post by bosox81 on Aug 20, 2015 19:10:38 GMT -5
So I have to ask to the resident statisticians: Has there ever been a point in Shaw's minor league career where he's been THIS hot? I just watched an at-bat, where Shaw reached a tough low and away pitch and poked it easily to the monster for a double. My eyes tell me he's an MLB regular, but you guys keep telling me stats don't say so. Has anyone who has seen Shaw when he was hot, seen him be this good?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 20, 2015 19:12:58 GMT -5
What about his full 2015 line with MLB numbers added in. Seems that should be counted with the AAA line even though it is at a higher level. What does that make the year out to be? .270 or so plus doesn't it. Those numbers have to count for something on his 15 learning curve. jimoh nailed it; the "slow to adjust to level" hypothesis was wrecked by his starting this year at Pawtucket terribly, then getting red hot, them going back into an awful funk. I put forth the better hypothesis a day or two ago: just a streaky hitter. What I would be interested to know is if there's a tendency for young hitters who are streaky to eventually settle in in their "hot" mode. Intuitively, it seems like one of the challenges a young guy might face is inconsistency due to losing his mechanics or focus or whatever; for such a player the challenge wouldn't so much be getting "better" as it would be maintaining consistency. Besides, if a player is naturally streaky (as opposed to it just being statistical fluke) doesn't that mean they're really good some of the time? In principle, don't they have the capacity to maintain something closer to their hot streak performance?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 20, 2015 19:33:41 GMT -5
Why is it not possible that Shaw just figured something out? It's not like Brandon Moss or Anthony Rizzo just demolished minor league pitching on their way to the majors.
Right now, he actually looks as dangerous as Rizzo. There is nothing lucky about his performance. He's crushing the ball. Of course he'll slump, but how many major league players ever go 73 plate appearances with a .379/.425/.697 1.122 line?
Or even better if you only counted his 55 PA stretch since he was called up last.
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Post by ajs1994 on Aug 20, 2015 19:45:36 GMT -5
Why is it not possible that Shaw just figured something out? It's not like Brandon Moss or Anthony Rizzo just demolished minor league pitching on their way to the majors. Right now, he actually looks as dangerous as Rizzo. There is nothing lucky about his performance. He's crushing the ball. He's no Rizzo. Rizzo was generally highly regarded in prospect circles. His lowest WRC+ in a league in the minors was 118, and had a 158 before promotion to San Diego and a 178 in AAA before once again reaching with the Cubs. This doesn't even consider the fact he's been younger for his league through his minor league advancement than Shaw. This doesn't even mean I don't like Shaw, I think he'll settle in as as a good backup 1b/3b. But it's still a very small sample size, and actually reminds me of how Chris Shelton started his MLB career. I think it's possible he's figuring something out, but it's way too early to saw definitively one way or the other, and for now I'll lean towards the larger amount of evidence that he's streaky.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 20, 2015 19:46:41 GMT -5
I personally am hoping he continues his hot streak til the end of the season and the Red Sox sell "high" on him.
Maybe he is a so called late bloomer and something clicked, but I'm very skeptical.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 20, 2015 19:51:49 GMT -5
Why is it not possible that Shaw just figured something out? It's not like Brandon Moss or Anthony Rizzo just demolished minor league pitching on their way to the majors. Right now, he actually looks as dangerous as Rizzo. There is nothing lucky about his performance. He's crushing the ball. He's no Rizzo. Rizzo was generally highly regarded in prospect circles. His lowest WRC+ in a league in the minors was 118, and had a 158 before promotion to San Diego and a 178 in AAA before once again reaching with the Cubs. This doesn't even consider the fact he's been younger for his league through his minor league advancement than Shaw. This doesn't even mean I don't like Shaw, I think he'll settle in as as a good backup 1b/3b. But it's still a very small sample size, and actually reminds me of how Chris Shelton started his MLB career. I think it's possible he's figuring something out, but it's way too early to saw definitively one way or the other, and for now I'll lean towards the larger amount of evidence that he's streaky. I'm not saying he's Rizzo. Just that anyone who can hit as well as Rizzo or better for 73 plate appearances should be taken a little more seriously. He definitely could be a Brandon Moss without the ugly splits though. This is not a streak fueled by bloop doubles, infield hits and seeing eye singles.
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Post by sierram363 on Aug 20, 2015 20:12:13 GMT -5
If Shaw can consistently put up Brian Daubach type numbers I'll be happy.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 20, 2015 20:48:12 GMT -5
And another hot, this one spanked into RF
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 20, 2015 21:09:31 GMT -5
Josh Donaldson-esque progression.
In all seriousness you got to love this guys story. Forgotten man setting the mlb on fire right now. Even when you look at his minor league stats and profile you can't disprove him as at least an mlb caliber player. Quickly becoming one of my favorites, even if he only is a utility long term..... Or much more.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 20, 2015 21:57:00 GMT -5
So I have to ask to the resident statisticians: Has there ever been a point in Shaw's minor league career where he's been THIS hot? I just watched an at-bat, where Shaw reached a tough low and away pitch and poked it easily to the monster for a double. My eyes tell me he's an MLB regular, but you guys keep telling me stats don't say so. Has anyone who has seen Shaw when he was hot, seen him be this good? Arizona Fall League in 2013, and a pretty good start in Portland the following spring. So, not since about May 2014.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 20, 2015 22:08:33 GMT -5
I can run the same analysis I did for Bradley on Shaw's MiLB stats, but using a window instead of the cumulative time series I used for JBJ. Would that help? I'd have to dig up some game logs. Are those available for the the minor league system?
Add: Never mind. I found them at B-R.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 20, 2015 22:08:42 GMT -5
Why is it not possible that Shaw just figured something out? It's not like Brandon Moss or Anthony Rizzo just demolished minor league pitching on their way to the majors. Right now, he actually looks as dangerous as Rizzo. There is nothing lucky about his performance. He's crushing the ball. Of course he'll slump, but how many major league players ever go 73 plate appearances with a .379/.425/.697 1.122 line? Or even better if you only counted his 55 PA stretch since he was called up last. I'm hoping you're right, since I'd considered it too. But for every Matt Stairs/Brandon Moss-type late bloomer (and Stairs had some great minor league seasons too), there are a passel of Kevin Maases and Sam Horns. That said, Shaw has been both incredibly hot, and consistent during his hot streak (ie, hitting the ball hard, XBHs, and sound approach). Not many cheapies for him at all. Frankly, even if he settles in at something just marginally better than his AAA numbers, say .265/.330/.420, he's a viable starter given his defense. They can find offense elsewhere. If he uses the whole field (which seems to correlate with his hot streaks...I saw some 2013 ABs with Portland before the AFL and he was pull-happy), the Wall will help him. He certainly has the capability to hit the ball very hard. At .280/.350/.450 with his 1b defense and ability to play a solid 3b he'd be a terrific addition to the roster, at minimal cost. ADD: yeah, my bad, I meant "passable" 3b, as in you could play him there in a pinch but probably wouldn't want him there for too long. At least, he could cover a 15-day DL stint if Holt is being used elsewhere.
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Post by jmei on Aug 20, 2015 22:15:51 GMT -5
I don't know that Shaw is a plus defensive first baseman. His SP.com profile says solid-average at 1B, for instance.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 20, 2015 22:29:36 GMT -5
That's just the thing-- I think there's a substantial likelihood that he's much worse than a 1.5 to 2 win player. Considering his minor league track record and his skill set, there's a good chance he ends up striking out a lot and not hiring for much power, in which case they're in trouble if the backup plan is a similarly fringy option. I agree with this point in principle (I think there's a chance he's a .240/.300/.400 hitter, if even, and quite probably better than 50/50). But I also think that all-around league average for a 1b (I'm guessing .270/.330/.440 if he has above-avg defense), which is about 1.5 WAR, isn't too much to expect...IF he finishes the year at .300/.375/.500, which was my original point. If he does that over 225 or so PA, I think it's reasonable to hope for league average over a season, since if he went .240/.300/.400 the rest of his PA, it would approximate that .270/.330/.440 line. I guess I'm just wary of spending significant $ on a FA who (see Hanley and Panda, and Napoli/Victorino this year too) could very well provide avg or below performance. I'd rather see that money go to building the 'pen, or a third of the salary of a frontline FA starter. Basically, there are no guarantees, and I'm not sure signing a FA for 2/25 is really going to give them all that much better production. I guess it all comes down to risk...hence the importance of back-up options. Basically, I think finding a serviceable 1b is easy enough that they can use Shaw's current performance (if he sustains it to some degree) to put it lower down the docket as compared with quality bullpen arms and a top-flight starter. Of course, the picture will be at least somewhat clearer come October.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 20, 2015 22:35:25 GMT -5
A few comments on Shaw.
This is the third distinctively different set of batting mechanics he's had. He adopted the current AGon like approach between the end of the season and the AFL in 2013. It's much quieter than previous approaches. I believe the quality ABs and solid contact are sustainable but obviously not at the current pace. He's the son of a former major leaguer and seems to have what it takes between the ears.
As jmei said, he's clearly not a plus defender at first base but he is solid, he's a notch below average at third base with little range.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 20, 2015 22:38:45 GMT -5
I don't know that Shaw is a plus defensive first baseman. His SP.com profile says solid-average at 1B, for instance. Yeah, watching him he's probably a bit better than average. But he's only had 1.5 years there. If he's a below-average hitter and a slightly above-average fielder, though, he's providing fringe-average production for next to no cost, and with at least a bit of upside...not to mention the capability to backup 3b. If the cost savings is $7M-$10M a year (1-1.5 WAR going rate in FA) for the next two years, that pays for 40% of a Cueto's salary, or 85% of an Andrew Miller (at the high end, eg 1.5 WAR). If Cueto is worth 5 WAR or Miller 1.5, it's basically a wash if Shaw plays at replacement level, but allows them to fill a major hole rather than a minor one. And if Shaw is anything better than replacement level, it's cake. If he's worse, it's easier to go out and acquire a replacement level 1b than it is to find a dominant reliever or #1 starter...and certainly cheaper in prospect cost.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 22:54:42 GMT -5
I have heard Lovullo describe Shaw's defense at 1B as excellent two days in a row on his pre-game radio show. Dombrowski made a point of going over to Shaw in the dugout and congratulating him on his play. Sox management is noticing, and barely can contain their glee about the possibility they have their 1B.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2015 23:29:51 GMT -5
I have this concern that Shaw will continue to tear up the league the rest of the season (kind of the way Sam Horn excited everybody for 1988 by blasting 14 homers in 160 ABs or so in 1987), and then like Horn who only hit 2 homers and lost his DH job in 1988, struggle mightily once you start depending on him.
He's been so-so in the minors and certainly didn't profile as anything more than a AAAA player or a platoon starter on a mediocre team. He's certainly not playing that way right now, as he has totally been a pleasant surprise. My instincts say he's going to be a guy the Sox can't depend on next year given his minor league track record, while my hopeful heart wonders if he can not only continue to be a productive hitter next year and beyond, but also possibly be a guy in the future who can shift to 3b eventually if/when Sam Travis is ready to take over 1b. Maybe he's one of those rare guys who exceed their minor league numbers? I don't think so, and I could understand the Sox selling high on him, but he certainly has me curious.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 21, 2015 0:02:48 GMT -5
So I have to ask to the resident statisticians: Has there ever been a point in Shaw's minor league career where he's been THIS hot? I just watched an at-bat, where Shaw reached a tough low and away pitch and poked it easily to the monster for a double. My eyes tell me he's an MLB regular, but you guys keep telling me stats don't say so. Has anyone who has seen Shaw when he was hot, seen him be this good? OK, here's your answer, or at least one out of many - depending on the size of the window. This is every game he's played since 2013. Each point calculates the stats for the previous 20 games - that's why the time series don't start showing up till a few weeks into 2013. So the four numbers are calculated for his 1 st through 20 th game, his 2 nd through 21 st, and so on right to his current ML games (I didn't include today's yet). Why 20? Because I felt like it, and it's right around three weeks worth of games which seems like an nice timeframe to ferret out trends. Take a look (click to enlarge): There's are streaks embedded throughout the record, so this punches Eric's ticket pretty clearly. It might also serve to sober-up some of the talk that's been generated. What goes up, has come down. Again we see the positive correlation between OPS and BABIP, and a negativer correlation with K rate, not surprisingly. He's on an unrealistic .400 BABIP jag right now, and he will eventually come back to earth. Book it. I think the most revealing thing, here is the ISOD line. That thing looks like it's ripe for a linear regression. It's been steadily declining over time. I have to double check my numbers but I think I got everything nailed down properly. I'll stick some vertical lines in there for each league transition and we should have something we can stare at for a while. A quick note on these plots. It can be considered a form of exploratory data analysis, some of the first real "data mining" techniques developed back in the 1960s when the computer-age was revving up. John Tukey thought, rightly, that there were times when you just wanted to examine the data in all their fullness and let them suggest stuff to you. He came up with some neat techniques to help him do that, such as box plots. We all have computing power in our hands that many of us only dreamed of when this all started, with the ability to plot as many data points and trend lines as our hearts desire. That's a big deal. The difference between reading lists of numbers and staring at a chart is about a million-fold increase in information content, utilizing all of the bandwidth our optic nerves are capable of. So, what do you all think, is the guy streaky or what? And what does that declining ISOD mean??
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 21, 2015 0:58:58 GMT -5
Well the declining IsoD probably goes hand in hand with him not crushing the competition in AAA. But tough to say whether he's one of those guys who simply rakes at his peak.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 21, 2015 1:26:53 GMT -5
It would seem that similarly to stock market moving averages, you could be plotting each separate stat, particularly IsoD and IsoP, as current (one day) vs multiple trend lines say 20/40/60 day moving averages. I would think that would yield an insightful graphic.
ADD: One other factor which would seem to have an effect is the Monster. Only Portland and Greenville have similar outfields to Fenway. I'm not sure how much that effects his hitting pattern.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 21, 2015 1:39:41 GMT -5
So I have to ask to the resident statisticians: Has there ever been a point in Shaw's minor league career where he's been THIS hot? I just watched an at-bat, where Shaw reached a tough low and away pitch and poked it easily to the monster for a double. My eyes tell me he's an MLB regular, but you guys keep telling me stats don't say so. Has anyone who has seen Shaw when he was hot, seen him be this good? Actually, the stats say he'd be a perfectly OK, average regular at 3B, and a won't-kill-you-but-you-wish-you-had-someone-better regular at 1B, the sort of guy (if he couldn't play 3B) who starts for a bad club and is one of the players a good GM targets to upgrade. If you plan to contend, you never hand a job to a guy like that unless you have no other options. However, if someone were to make a nutty trade offer for Sandoval, and Hanley was not in the 3B picture either, I'd have no problem using Shaw at 3B as a 1.5 or 2 year bridge to Moncada. Of course, that's unlikely. But this is also the sort of guy whose presence on a bench helps you win championships. The 20th or 25th best 1B in MLB is a great guy to have backing up your regular. And he can be used to backup 3B against certain pitchers and whenever your primary backup, Holt, is in the lineup elsewhere.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Aug 21, 2015 3:16:31 GMT -5
I am really impressed with his oppo field hitting. Like his defense at 1B. Very solid.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 21, 2015 6:04:35 GMT -5
Bear in mind that this is his first prolonged stay in the Bigs. Pitching staffs are bound to develop methods to get him out. How he reacts to enhanced defensive strategy is key to his success. I hope he becomes another Wade Boggs type late bloomer, but let's see how he handles increased scrutiny.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 21, 2015 7:09:59 GMT -5
Bear in mind that this is his first prolonged stay in the Bigs. Pitching staffs are bound to develop methods to get him out. How he reacts to enhanced defensive strategy is key to his success. I hope he becomes another Wade Boggs type late bloomer, but let's see how he handles increased scrutiny. With the amount of video and scouting now, I'm sure that every pitcher had the book on him before he took his first major league swing. At least compared to the old days anyway. And when he goes opposite field so well, that's a guy without many holes. I agree with what you said, I just don't think it's as likely that they find something severe that they didn't already know. Like in 2013, I remember CC Sabathia destroyed JBJ in his first game (I think) after he raked in spring training because the games finally mattered.
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