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Where did things go wrong?
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 8, 2022 13:55:01 GMT -5
These questions basically address the whole situation. Since Bloom's introductory press conference they've preached the same message of developing a sustainable contender. If ownership is going to consistently spend to the first threshold annually it's hard to have a lot of dead money on the books and a pipeline not producing league minimum talent on a consistent basis to balance the roster. They have a new corporate philosophy and they are sticking to it. If this was their new corporate philosophy then they should have dealt Xander, Devers and others 2 years ago for huge hauls, cleared their books and rebuilt. If you have too much dead money to build a real contender and you’re not going to make a real effort to keep your top talent, then they should have done a hard reset. I mean they did win 176 games and go to the ALCS in those two years.
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Post by trajanacc on Dec 8, 2022 14:29:52 GMT -5
I'm not a Bloom hater or a doomsayer, but I don't think anyone can deny that things haven't been great lately. We've disappointed three out of the last four years, during which time we've let two franchise cornerstones walk away with relatively little to show for it. I still believe we can be a good team as soon as this year, but even if that happens I expect it will feel like a one-off transition year, not the start of the Next Great Red Sox Team.
How did we get here? Was it reckless spending from Dombrowski? Toxic frugality under Bloom/Henry? Bad luck with player development under Cherington? Maybe just bad luck in general? If you had a time machine and the ear of John Henry, how would you put the Sox on the right track to avoid this 3-5(?) year stretch of uncertainty?
I mean, we've also been to the ALCS twice and won a World Series in the last five years. Doesn't sound so bad now does it? I think many of us knew there would be a price to pay for DD's management style. A price we were happy to pay given what it got us in 2018, but a price nonetheless.
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Post by ortiz on Dec 8, 2022 14:31:54 GMT -5
I'm not a Bloom hater or a doomsayer, but I don't think anyone can deny that things haven't been great lately. We've disappointed three out of the last four years, during which time we've let two franchise cornerstones walk away with relatively little to show for it. I still believe we can be a good team as soon as this year, but even if that happens I expect it will feel like a one-off transition year, not the start of the Next Great Red Sox Team.
How did we get here? Was it reckless spending from Dombrowski? Toxic frugality under Bloom/Henry? Bad luck with player development under Cherington? Maybe just bad luck in general? If you had a time machine and the ear of John Henry, how would you put the Sox on the right track to avoid this 3-5(?) year stretch of uncertainty?
I mean, we've also been to the ALCS twice and won a World Series in the last five years. Doesn't sound so bad now does it? I think many of us knew there would be a price to pay for DD's management style. A price we were happy to pay given what it got us in 2018, but a price nonetheless. The problem is of course that at this point the overall slope of the team's performance is negative and it is hard to have hope for improvement next year at this time based on the offseason so far.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 8, 2022 14:35:30 GMT -5
Honestly the pessimism and short sighted outlook of this conversation here is disappointing.
Let’s just the rest of this off-season play out and see what the results are in 2023. Patience is key, folks…
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 8, 2022 14:37:55 GMT -5
Honestly the pessimism and short sighted outlook of this conversation here is disappointing. Let’s just the rest of this off-season play out and see what the results are in 2023. Patience is key, folks… Last year’s trade deadline: patience is key! Maybe they’ll make a big move. Negotiations with X: patience is key! Momentum! As the frontline FA sign elsewhere: patience!
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 8, 2022 14:40:12 GMT -5
I mean, we've also been to the ALCS twice and won a World Series in the last five years. Doesn't sound so bad now does it? I think many of us knew there would be a price to pay for DD's management style. A price we were happy to pay given what it got us in 2018, but a price nonetheless. The problem is of course that at this point the overall slope of the team's performance is negative and it is hard to have hope for improvement next year at this time based on the offseason so far. Well the 18-19-20 slope was also negative and then they made the ALCS. The 10-11-12 slope was negative and then they won the World Series. Things change quick and winning cures all. If they extend Devers and spend the rest of the money the sentiment will change quickly too.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 8, 2022 14:43:21 GMT -5
You can't pin it on any one thing, but there has been very little mention given to Dombrowski's spending plan and the state in which he left the team from a financial planning standpoint. When Bloom inherited the team, recall that Dombrowski had spent over the luxury tax limits the prior two seasons and Bloom literally had to subtract payroll (with Betts being an obvious place to subtract) in his first offseason to reset the penalties. Also the Bogaerts extension that Dombrowski put together was always interpreted as 'team-friendly' and I won't necessarily say that it wasn't, but I think the extent to which it was interpreted as 'team-friendly' was exaggerated on the basis that these opt-outs (which Dombrowski loved to include in deals) were always going to come back to bite us. All that said, I do think Bloom and/or ownership certainly could have done more prior to this past season to extend Bogaerts, and extending Devers should be a priority now....a failure to do so reflects poorly on Bloom in that regard. "Dombroski spent over the luxury tax limits the prior two seasons" Or was it Henry and Werner who spent over, or at least authorized it? Is this an ownership group that hired a new GM to save them from themselves, or just the way the game's been run since the tax went into place. Or as former Dodger GM Kevin Malone said about the Kevin Brown deal: “If this deal goes well, it’ll be a good contract for me. … And if this deal goes bad, it’ll be a bad contract for someone else.” (courtesy of Jayson Stark)
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 8, 2022 14:45:13 GMT -5
The problem is of course that at this point the overall slope of the team's performance is negative and it is hard to have hope for improvement next year at this time based on the offseason so far. Well the 18-19-20 slope was also negative and then they made the ALCS. The 10-11-12 slope was negative and then they won the World Series. Things change quick and winning cures all. If they extend Devers and spend the rest of the money the sentiment will change quickly too. So… 3 bad years has a causal relationship to success?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Dec 8, 2022 14:46:25 GMT -5
I'm not even being pessimistic. They might be on the right track for the future. They might even be good this year! But there's simply no way to argue that things have gone to plan since 2019. A franchise like this is not supposed to miss the playoffs three out of four years and then come into the fifth year with as many questions as we likely will.
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Post by danredhawk on Dec 8, 2022 14:47:24 GMT -5
Honestly the pessimism and short sighted outlook of this conversation here is disappointing. Let’s just the rest of this off-season play out and see what the results are in 2023. Patience is key, folks… This has been Red Sox leadership for three years - and its always been about a hypothetical future. If you're still all in on Bloom/Ownership good for you - but it is also MORE than fair for other posters to judge management based on their actions/results rather than their lofty expectation of eventually 'being good'... If we can't judge them now, why would we judge them after 2023? One can always look ahead to a hypothetical three-consecutive championships - so at what point can we evaluate what's its actually happening before our very eyes? There is a segment of Red Sox fan population that is perpetually negative and there is a segment that often says if you don't see what management is doing, it's because you're not smart enough. I know which one I find more 'disappointing', but putting that aside, there is a whole gray area of genuine conversation and its simply not all roses for the current administration...
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 8, 2022 14:48:10 GMT -5
Well the 18-19-20 slope was also negative and then they made the ALCS. The 10-11-12 slope was negative and then they won the World Series. Things change quick and winning cures all. If they extend Devers and spend the rest of the money the sentiment will change quickly too. So… 3 bad years has a causal relationship to success? Well if so we should be hoping ‘23 and ‘24 stink too… No my point was simply that trajectory can change very quickly.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 8, 2022 14:50:13 GMT -5
It seems the majority of the complaints here are related to a 'misevaluation of talent'. Although Bloom shouldn't receive a full pass, a person in his position typically has little to do with the direct talent evaluation. He is responsible (to some degree) for the people who perform the talent evaluations, but many of those personnel he inherited.
Some quibbles are also assisted by hindsight: trading Renfroe for JBJ+Binelas+Hamilton may seem bad now, but Renfroe was struggling defensively (leading MLB in both throwing and fielding errors by an outfielder) with Fenway's RF and Binelas looked like a pretty amazing prospect. Since then Binelas has struggled a bit (partially due to being rushed) and JBJ proved to have nothing left in the tank. But Hamilton (apparently) impressed enough to be added to the 40-man roster and Renfroe has been traded again, so it's not quite as lopsided as some have stated.
And let's not forget, the most lopsided 'on-face' trade has been Hembree/Workman for Pivetta/Seabold, which has weighed in the Red Sox favor 3.6 fWAR to -1.3 fWAR, with years of control still coming for the Red Sox.
I hate that Xander is gone, but we don't know how much it would have taken to keep him a year ago and that contract he received was insane. My largest gripe has been Chaim's desire to retain/sign/trade-for fringy relief pitchers rather than giving the prospects a chance.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 8, 2022 14:55:43 GMT -5
Honestly the pessimism and short sighted outlook of this conversation here is disappointing. Let’s just the rest of this off-season play out and see what the results are in 2023. Patience is key, folks… It is more than being pessimistic for me, we just lost a guy who we have seen grow into a leader and was a professional in every sense of the word. That is on top of Mookie and the disintegration of the best team any of us have seen. And what for ? To be run like a small market franchise ? To have the FO and fans remark about overpays and metrics ? I have been a fan since 1975, as i am sure many have. The pessimism i feel is worse than any of the years prior to 2004. This organization, and by default the fan base has lost its soul. The Red Sox are more than wins and losses for a lot of people. They're tradition and brotherhood
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 8, 2022 15:18:08 GMT -5
I think what we are seeing is that Bloom is coming to terms that he is not in Tampa Bay any more.
I am going to revel in the success of the Bruins and Celtics, and just let the rest of the offseason play out. Focusing on the Red Sox right now is too depressing (kind of like the Patriots right now)
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Post by Guidas on Dec 8, 2022 15:23:30 GMT -5
I think what we are seeing is that Bloom is coming to terms that he is not in Tampa Bay any more. I am going to revel in the success of the Bruins and Celtics, and just let the rest of the offseason play out. Focusing on the Red Sox right now is too depressing (kind of like the Patriots right now) No disrespect, but Bloom should've had a big clue on this during his introductory press conference. Tampa never got that kind of coverage from their local media even when they made it to the World Series.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 8, 2022 15:31:16 GMT -5
I think what we are seeing is that Bloom is coming to terms that he is not in Tampa Bay any more.
I am going to revel in the success of the Bruins and Celtics, and just let the rest of the offseason play out. Focusing on the Red Sox right now is too depressing (kind of like the Patriots right now) This troupe that the sox are going to turn into TB, has been and will always be a stupid nonsensical hot take...
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 8, 2022 15:32:53 GMT -5
I think what we are seeing is that Bloom is coming to terms that he is not in Tampa Bay any more.
I am going to revel in the success of the Bruins and Celtics, and just let the rest of the offseason play out. Focusing on the Red Sox right now is too depressing (kind of like the Patriots right now) This troupe that the sox are going to turn into TB, has been and will always be a stupid nonsensical hot take... That's right. Tampa typically has much better pitching.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 8, 2022 15:35:38 GMT -5
This troupe that the sox are going to turn into TB, has been and will always be a stupid nonsensical hot take... That's right. Tampa typically has much better pitching. Almost there!... How did they get that pitching? Via large absurd contracts or developing pitching via the minors?
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 8, 2022 15:49:08 GMT -5
Let’s keep it simple. We had a great all time team with a young core in 2018 then decided to dismantle it.
We had 3 probably to be hall of famers and very solid player (benintendi) all 27 years old out younger, and we have Devers left who is probably gone in a year or less.
This is mainly Blooms doing, all signs indicate that ownership more or less said Stay under $200 million in payroll. Blooms decided to go the most as% backwards failing way to do that.
We attached price to Betts to lessen that return. Rather have attached prospects to price to get rid of him and Pay Betts
Bloom wasn’t smart enough to pick his battles and sign Betts and Devers long term and have bogaerts walk…. That would have been the fair and tough trade
What is pathetic is our farm is middle of the pack… that’s all we have to really show for all this. What’s the point of developing generational talent if we aren’t going to extend them?
It’s not that hard (see Braves approach)
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 8, 2022 15:49:25 GMT -5
That's right. Tampa typically has much better pitching. Almost there!... How did they get that pitching? Via large absurd contracts or developing pitching via the minors? I’ll take either one!!
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Post by dangermike on Dec 8, 2022 15:50:32 GMT -5
The largest issue is the insulting extension offers. That isn’t unique to bloom and imo it’s the biggest factor when it comes to situations like mookie and xander. I truly believe xander would have taken a deal that was much more team friendly than 280/11 last offseason but someone in the front office thought it’d be smart to offer less than 1/3 of that.
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Post by ltlurker on Dec 8, 2022 15:52:36 GMT -5
Honestly the pessimism and short sighted outlook of this conversation here is disappointing. Let’s just the rest of this off-season play out and see what the results are in 2023. Patience is key, folks… It is more than being pessimistic for me, we just lost a guy who we have seen grow into a leader and was a professional in every sense of the word. That is on top of Mookie and the disintegration of the best team any of us have seen. And what for ? To be run like a small market franchise ? To have the FO and fans remark about overpays and metrics ? I have been a fan since 1975, as i am sure many have. The pessimism i feel is worse than any of the years prior to 2004. This organization, and by default the fan base has lost its soul. The Red Sox are more than wins and losses for a lot of people. They're tradition and brotherhood Am I reading that right: you’re feeling worse than any of the years *prior* to 2004? If you meant “since 2004,” I might not agree but I’d understand. I started watching the Sox in earnest in 1978 (timing is everything) and still haven’t gotten over losing Lynn, Fisk, Burleson, and Hobson in the same offseason. Four of the six guys (along with Rice and a downtrending Eck) who were up on my wall. And that was all about the money, long before any kind of cap. That was my low point. The Hobson managerial years? Pretty pessimistic. The 82-win 2001 team full of injuries and malcontents that actually gave way to an LCS team two years later and the fateful 2004 team the following year? Can’t say I saw that coming at the time! If you meant “since 2004,” I’d have less of an argument but I wasn’t exactly on top of the world in 2011/2012. Not trying to argue with anyone’s takes, I just feel bad that so many people are so pessimistic 2 months before they even start loading up the trucks. :-(
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 8, 2022 15:56:28 GMT -5
It is more than being pessimistic for me, we just lost a guy who we have seen grow into a leader and was a professional in every sense of the word. That is on top of Mookie and the disintegration of the best team any of us have seen. And what for ? To be run like a small market franchise ? To have the FO and fans remark about overpays and metrics ? I have been a fan since 1975, as i am sure many have. The pessimism i feel is worse than any of the years prior to 2004. This organization, and by default the fan base has lost its soul. The Red Sox are more than wins and losses for a lot of people. They're tradition and brotherhood Am I reading that right: you’re feeling worse than any of the years *prior* to 2004? If you meant “since 2004,” I might not agree but I’d understand. I started watching the Sox in earnest in 1978 (timing is everything) and still haven’t gotten over losing Lynn, Fisk, Burleson, and Hobson in the same offseason. Four of the six guys (along with Rice and a downtrending Eck) who were up on my wall. And that was all about the money, long before any kind of cap. That was my low point. The Hobson managerial years? Pretty pessimistic. The 82-win 2001 team full of injuries and malcontents that actually gave way to an LCS team two years later and the fateful 2004 team the following year? If you meant “since 2004,” I’d have less of an argument but I wasn’t exactly on top of the world in 2011/2012. Not trying to argue with anyone’s takes, I just feel bad that so many people are so pessimistic 2 months before they even start loading up the trucks. :-( I keep thinking about Lynn and Fisk. Devers is Rice. To this day, that is bewildering and painful for Sox fans. Losing Mookie and X are the defining moments of Bloom’s time so far. Fault is irrelevant. Just think how he will be remembered if he doesn’t change the narrative with a ring. This is now one of three moments in history when the Sox have left homegrown stars in their primes go for nothing. The other two are massive scars (even a curse!).
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Post by ltlurker on Dec 8, 2022 16:16:35 GMT -5
Am I reading that right: you’re feeling worse than any of the years *prior* to 2004? If you meant “since 2004,” I might not agree but I’d understand. I started watching the Sox in earnest in 1978 (timing is everything) and still haven’t gotten over losing Lynn, Fisk, Burleson, and Hobson in the same offseason. Four of the six guys (along with Rice and a downtrending Eck) who were up on my wall. And that was all about the money, long before any kind of cap. That was my low point. The Hobson managerial years? Pretty pessimistic. The 82-win 2001 team full of injuries and malcontents that actually gave way to an LCS team two years later and the fateful 2004 team the following year? If you meant “since 2004,” I’d have less of an argument but I wasn’t exactly on top of the world in 2011/2012. Not trying to argue with anyone’s takes, I just feel bad that so many people are so pessimistic 2 months before they even start loading up the trucks. :-( I keep thinking about Lynn and Fisk. Devers is Rice. To this day, that is bewildering and painful for Sox fans. Losing Mookie and X are the defining moments of Bloom’s time so far. Fault is irrelevant. Just think how he will be remembered if he doesn’t change the narrative with a ring. This is now one of three moments in history when the Sox have left homegrown stars in their primes go for nothing. The other two are massive scars (even a curse!). This is true. Losing all three of them would be the equivalent of, what, losing Nomar, Ortiz and Pedro in their primes and then not winning in 2004/2007? Seeing Nomar and Pedro go was hard but their best years ended up being behind them and having Papi and two WS in the general time frame eased a lot of that pain. Let’s hope we catch some lightning in the bottle again and Devers raises the trophy at least one more time.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 8, 2022 16:31:50 GMT -5
It is more than being pessimistic for me, we just lost a guy who we have seen grow into a leader and was a professional in every sense of the word. That is on top of Mookie and the disintegration of the best team any of us have seen. And what for ? To be run like a small market franchise ? To have the FO and fans remark about overpays and metrics ? I have been a fan since 1975, as i am sure many have. The pessimism i feel is worse than any of the years prior to 2004. This organization, and by default the fan base has lost its soul. The Red Sox are more than wins and losses for a lot of people. They're tradition and brotherhood Am I reading that right: you’re feeling worse than any of the years *prior* to 2004? If you meant “since 2004,” I might not agree but I’d understand. I started watching the Sox in earnest in 1978 (timing is everything) and still haven’t gotten over losing Lynn, Fisk, Burleson, and Hobson in the same offseason. Four of the six guys (along with Rice and a downtrending Eck) who were up on my wall. And that was all about the money, long before any kind of cap. That was my low point. The Hobson managerial years? Pretty pessimistic. The 82-win 2001 team full of injuries and malcontents that actually gave way to an LCS team two years later and the fateful 2004 team the following year? Can’t say I saw that coming at the time! If you meant “since 2004,” I’d have less of an argument but I wasn’t exactly on top of the world in 2011/2012. Not trying to argue with anyone’s takes, I just feel bad that so many people are so pessimistic 2 months before they even start loading up the trucks. :-( if you started out in our timeframe, it was a long slough to get to the 2004 Championship. My pessimism prior to 2004 was along the lines of, when are we gonna win this damn thing. LOL. I may have hijacked your original intent, apologies. I am pessimistic about the leadership, and more importantly, I am deeply saddened by the way this organization has decided to do it's business. I have said it before and I will say it again, we were lucky to have Henry and Co. in some ways, but they were luckier to have us. We were unlucky to go 86 years without winning, there were plenty of good clubs and players. What has existed for decades before his arrival wasn't an accident. When people are just investments with monetary considerations, they are no more than human chattel.
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