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Post by Guidas on Apr 16, 2023 16:05:21 GMT -5
Ohtani is unlike any player we've seen in our lifetimes - a 28 year-old Top 10 pitcher last year (2.33 ERA/2.65 xFIP, 11.87 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR) and Top 15 hitter (.276/.355/.519 34HRs 31.8 Runs Above Average and 3.8 fWAR as almost exclusively a DH).
According to Fangraphs, his combined fWAR was worth roughly $76M.
Given that in the context of the current free agency market and his desire to be on a winning team, what do you think his AAV will be in his free agent deal?
I'm glad to start with my back-of-the-envelope calculation (and I'm assuming no injury this year) and we can look at the actuals this winter to get a reality check for our estimations:
$62M
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Post by fenwaydouble on Apr 16, 2023 16:23:24 GMT -5
I think he might get that AAV if he's willing to sign a 3-year contract. It won't be anything close to that if he wants a 10-year deal, though. I predict something like 12/580.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 16, 2023 16:28:12 GMT -5
Baring injury I believe one of these two statements will be true.
Ohtani will be the first $60 million dollar player. Ohtani will be the first $500 dollar player.
Wouldn’t disbelieve it if both came true.
If he’s getting 12 year, I think he could eclipse 600 million
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 16, 2023 16:33:18 GMT -5
Baring injury I believe one of these two statements will be true. Ohtani will be the first $60 million dollar player. Ohtani will be the first $500 dollar player. Wouldn’t disbelieve it if both came true. If he’s getting 12 year, I think he could eclipse 600 million I think he’ll get a little more than $500, but we’ll see! The real question is how much of a discount will he take to play with Yoshida?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 16, 2023 16:41:33 GMT -5
Baring injury I believe one of these two statements will be true. Ohtani will be the first $60 million dollar player. Ohtani will be the first $500 dollar player. Wouldn’t disbelieve it if both came true. If he’s getting 12 year, I think he could eclipse 600 million I think he’ll get a little more than $500, but we’ll see! The real question is how much of a discount will he take to play with Yoshida? Personally I’d rather sign two $30 million dollar players than one Ohtani, but that doesn’t mean I’d get super excited if we got him. I’m so convinced great Ohtani is NOT a Sox move that I’m Starting to talk myself into them actually being in on him.
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Post by patford on Apr 16, 2023 16:55:54 GMT -5
Judge who is 30 is getting close to 40 million a year for nine years. Cole is getting 36 million a year for a nine year contract signed when he was 31. Ohtani also offers the advantage of essentially giving a team an extra 26 man and 40 man roster spot because you are getting a starting pitcher and a position player (I'm aware he almost always is a DH). Anything less than nine years at 700 million would probably be a bargain.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2023 17:38:26 GMT -5
I think he’ll get a little more than $500, but we’ll see! The real question is how much of a discount will he take to play with Yoshida? Personally I’d rather sign two $30 million dollar players than one Ohtani, but that doesn’t mean I’d get super excited if we got him. I’m so convinced great Ohtani is NOT a Sox move that I’m Starting to talk myself into them actually being in on him. Totally agree. Ohtani is great, but he also has more ways to get hurt than any player in baseball. If he gets hurt pitching, you lose a batter, too — and vice versa. The risk is just massive.
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Post by orion09 on Apr 16, 2023 18:32:35 GMT -5
Here is my very rough analysis, feel free to add your thoughts:
Ohtani is essentially two players in one roster spot: -5 WAR pitcher and -3 WAR/145 wRC+ DH
A decent free agent comp on the pitching side might be Carlos Rodon (5.6 fWAR avg over the last two years, 30 yo @ contract signing, got $27M AAV/6 years).
A starting point on the hitting side might be somewhere between JD Martinez’s pre-Sox contract (30 yo, 147 wRC+, $22M AAV/5 y) and Yordan Alvarez’s contract extension (29 yo, 160 wRC+, $27M AAV/3 Y).
So put the two sides of Ohtani together and you’re reasonably in the $50M AAV ballpark.
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Post by orion09 on Apr 16, 2023 18:33:06 GMT -5
Here is my very rough analysis, feel free to add your thoughts: Ohtani is essentially two players in one roster spot: -5 WAR pitcher and -3 WAR/145 wRC+ DH A decent free agent comp on the pitching side might be Carlos Rodon (5.6 fWAR avg over the last two years, 30 yo @ contract signing, got $27M AAV/6 years). A starting point on the hitting side might be somewhere between JD Martinez’s pre-Sox contract (30 yo, 147 wRC+, $22M AAV/5 y) and Yordan Alvarez’s contract extension (29 yo, 160 wRC+, $27M AAV/3 Y). So put the two sides of Ohtani together and you’re reasonably in the $50M AAV ballpark. There are two adjustments that you’d have to make to his value. One is that since Ohtani only uses one roster spot, his team can carry an additional player: either an extra bench bat or an extra bullpen arm. (The Angels currently have 13 pitchers and 12 position players plus Ohtani, so in their case it’s an extra pitcher.) The main benefit of carrying an extra pitcher would be the ability to rest your bullpen arms more, making them more effective over the course of the season. You’d have to figure out the added utility to your team construction (keeping in mind you’d still have to pay the extra player whatever salary he cost), and add that to Ohtani’s value. There’s probably not an easy way to value this without advanced models, but gun to my head, I would guess it adds around 1 WAR. The other adjustment is that the injury risk of Ohtani’s two “player components” are correlated. It’s like if you signed Rodon and Alvarez, but there was a magic link between them so that if one player got hurt, so did the other. I have zero idea how to value this without access to an injury risk model, but a team who had one could find the probability of *either* of Ohtani’s player components getting hurt, and multiply those two risks together. In other words, the combined risk reduces his value.
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Post by orion09 on Apr 16, 2023 18:40:29 GMT -5
One final way to look at this: Ohtani has averaged 8.7 fWAR over the last two years. Aaron Judge has averaged 8.5 fWAR. Judge was a year older than Ohtani will be, and got $40M AAV/9 years.
If I had to guess, Ohtani will get something like $43.5M AAV over 10 or 11 years.
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Post by keninten on Apr 16, 2023 19:50:47 GMT -5
He`ll be on the Mets. Who can outbid Cohen?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2023 20:04:24 GMT -5
He`ll be on the Mets. Who can outbid Cohen? If he prefers the West Coast then it's likely the Dodgers. The Dodgers got under the luxury tax limit this season. I assumed its because they'll be heavy after Ohtani this offseason.
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Post by patford on Apr 16, 2023 20:46:32 GMT -5
He`ll be on the Mets. Who can outbid Cohen? I'd expect the drunken sailors will drive his price up over 70 million per year. Aside from the Mets and Padres the Dodgers and Giants will probably have a run at him.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 16, 2023 21:05:11 GMT -5
Isn’t there an inherent conflict with him wanting to play on a winning team and him getting paid the completely unprecedented AAV that he is actually worth? Unless he goes to the Mets, who don’t care about the luxury tax, any team that signed him isn’t going to have much flexibility to build a contending roster around him. And teams like the Rays, who have enough payroll flexibility normally don’t go after the elite level free agents. It is going to be super interesting to see what happens.
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 16, 2023 21:50:08 GMT -5
Over 50m$ per Over 500m$ total. Those numbers are almost already in the bank. Something like 9 /560 10/600 12/700
It’s going to be Crazy plus some
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 16, 2023 21:59:16 GMT -5
Ohtani terrifies me on a long-term deal. Is the benefit of the extra roster spot worth the added risk from your best hitter and best pitcher automatically both being injured if either one gets injured? It's especially scary on a long-term deal with how frequently pitchers get major injuries. At least he's already had TJ...
Imagine you're the Yankees and every time Judge *or* Cole gets injured you also lose the other one. Is that worth one extra guy on your bench? Unless if there's a discount built in for that sort of thing, and there probably won't be so long as boom and bust franchises exist, I don't want him.
Edit: You could argue it's not quite the same as my hypothetical since his injury risk isn't going to be double the average player, and I'd agree with you, but I think it's almost certainly higher than the average player's because of workload alone, even if we ignore the pitcher vs. batter differences.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 16, 2023 22:18:40 GMT -5
It's not just the possibility of injury that's horrifying at those numbers. It's the consequences of an injury if it does happen. Most injuries are not career ending but plenty of P injuries blow a huge hole in the guy's production for the rest of his career.
In other cases, the injuries just keep piling up. Sale is the obvious example here.
If either of those things happen, the organization is underwater for hundreds of millions of dollars. At the dollars and years being thrown around in this thread, an Ohtani contract would potentially be the Sale contract times two - in terms of both years and AAV.
The other factor that's impossible to predict is that even without injuries, what is the player's aging curve? Some players decline suddenly and relatively early. Jim Rice was in that category.
And it's not like if he suffers an injury or run of injuries that finish him as a P, he's guaranteed to remain a great hitter.
No thank you.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 16, 2023 22:21:25 GMT -5
The injury thing I think most people overlook in the risk is that there are plenty of injuries he could get that wouldn’t keep him out entirely, just make him a one-way player. I’m pretty sure, and could easily Google if I weren’t feeling so lazy, that there was a year where he was just a hitter already.
Obviously if he tears a UCL or snaps an ankle he’s done. But if he has a blister he can still hit, and in theory if he had a minor left wrist injury he could still pitch.
It doesn’t mean the injury risk doesn’t exist but it also minimizes it, to an extent.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Apr 16, 2023 22:55:11 GMT -5
You guys aren't even taking into account the ability to add a vast, nearly untapped market in you fanbase/ viewership in Japan. The Japanese media follows Ohtani around the country like hungry Lions after a three legged antelope.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 17, 2023 6:45:20 GMT -5
He`ll be on the Mets. Who can outbid Cohen? If he prefers the West Coast then it's likely the Dodgers. The Dodgers got under the luxury tax limit this season. I assumed its because they'll be heavy after Ohtani this offseason. I think LAD may actually be over on the luxury tax again because they're still responsible for Bauer's remaining salary.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 17, 2023 7:01:38 GMT -5
Isn’t there an inherent conflict with him wanting to play on a winning team and him getting paid the completely unprecedented AAV that he is actually worth? Unless he goes to the Mets, who don’t care about the luxury tax, any team that signed him isn’t going to have much flexibility to build a contending roster around him. And teams like the Rays, who have enough payroll flexibility normally don’t go after the elite level free agents. It is going to be super interesting to see what happens. This is where I'm at. I don't think the Sox will be in on him, so I'd just prefer he stays in the national league. Also, the data say he really only has 4-5 star to near-star years left, barring injury. I wonder if someone like Friedman offers him only 5 years but at $75M-80M a year. That would still be an overpay for on-field performance, but the ancillary business opportunities and fan base growth in Japan may make it worth it. Anyway, it will be a circus. The unfortunate thing is the free agent market next year is pretty meh. Otherwise, teams could leverage the Ohtani deal to maximize getting another high level talent. That is, if a team in your division is all-in on Ohtani, you could go after pitcher/hitter X and not have to worry about that team getting him. But right now it's: Ohtani > > > Urias Nola Yamamoto (25 year-old Japanese starter phenom who will likely be posted) > > And then it's a pretty steep cliff to guys like Matt Chapman, Lucas Giolito and not much else. So, it will be the Ohtani show and then two to three other elite starters getting rich and then a pile of meh.
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 17, 2023 7:51:24 GMT -5
Feel like he will get like a 9 year deal at 46 million per
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 17, 2023 8:11:35 GMT -5
I'm going to make my official prediction now 570/11
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 17, 2023 8:19:28 GMT -5
I'm going to guess 540 over 12 years. I got there by saying he's probably worth 500M for 10 years and then throwing in the recent tread of tacking in an extra year or two at less money to try and drive the AAV down.
That's if he wants to go the straight up long term contract route, if he wants to play it a little risky and take a shorter 2-3 year deal then the AAV #s could get shattered on something like a 2-3 year deal at 60+AAV.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 17, 2023 9:06:29 GMT -5
$600,000,000 for 11 years. He ain’t coming to a last place team so just grab the popcorn and watch this go down. I would pay him that. IMO he’s the greatest baseball player of all time. Problem is Padres ruined the market. Every 26-32 year old all star will be looking for 10+ years now. I’m going to guess the LA Dodgers. The only reason you let Turner walk is if you’re going to break the bank on someone else. Plus he wouldn’t have to move far.
Edit: Trea Turner not Justin 😂
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