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What AAV Will Ohtani Get in the Free Agent Market?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 29, 2023 18:23:39 GMT -5
What happens when he leads off the bottom of the 8th with a 1 run lead, rips a double, and then gets stranded at 3rd to end the inning? Not sure how he's getting ready to close out the game in time, and to make things worse, your setup man just threw 25 pitches, and your 3rd best reliever has gone back to back days. Having him as your closer seems to risky with too many non ideal scenarios that could pop up. Or he could get hit by lightning while standing on 3rd. Sorry, don't mean to be facetious but that's the type of situation that probably arises very rarely. However, you make a good point about how he warms up while playing (easier if he's the DH perhaps). Is it though? He's going to be hitting 2nd or 3rd every night, so the odds of him getting on the final AB's are pretty good. He'd need a full half inning to get ready, how does he pull that off if he's playing RF and batting 3rd?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 30, 2023 18:10:15 GMT -5
Just a question, but if it's a bit too dangerous to count on Ohtani as a pitcher could he be a closer where his arm is not used as much and also a DH and perhaps RF? I'm pretty sure this would remove the DH from the game. Not so bad these days with shorter extra-inning games, but not ideal for postseason games with the traditional extra-inning rules. Even as a starter, it would be interesting to see if Ohtani's value diminishes slightly (in the post-season) due to this difference as starters frequently pitch in relief. For the regular season I think it could work, but there would be some instances (as previously mentioned) where the manager would have to go with another reliever because Ohtani didn't have enough time to warm up. Of course, we also don't know how quickly he could warm up as we haven't seen him do it yet.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 1, 2023 10:41:52 GMT -5
I wouldn't count out the Orioles. They gotta spend money at some point don't they? Have you read about their current owner? He makes Jeff Loria look like a generous spendthrift.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2023 11:02:23 GMT -5
I wouldn't count out the Orioles. They gotta spend money at some point don't they? Have you read about their current owner? He makes Jeff Loria look like a generous spendthrift. Hes the reason the Orioles will have a shorter window than a budding long term dynasty. The Orioles should be great the rest of this decade, but an owner who caree more about winning than profit could with that farm system and financial resources available could build a team that could be great for a decade.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 5, 2023 18:41:22 GMT -5
in light of the Heyman story:
1. Why don’t we talk about this clip from March more
2. Isn’t this tampering?
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Oct 5, 2023 19:07:39 GMT -5
I know he’s the best player in baseball right now. We’d be lucky to have him. Great teammate. Good person, by all accounts. The face of baseball. Global attention and sales. Stonks.
Somehow I can’t see him in a Sox uniform. The idea feels…odd. And I can’t shake it. Part of it is definitely the fear I have that he will break down and break down quickly. The human body can only take so much, and hitters and pitchers both have retired with less wear, never mind someone who is both a hitter and a pitcher (and also undergoing surgical repair for his pitching arm in 2024).
It would bring tremendous joy to see him play for the Red Sox but it would also bring tremendous anxiety. He’ll require a commitment that will likely be record-setting in more than one way, and this may make or break your franchise for the next 10+ years. I’m not sure it’s worth the risk.
Someone tell me why I shouldn’t feel this way.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 6, 2023 22:50:27 GMT -5
I know he’s the best player in baseball right now. We’d be lucky to have him. Great teammate. Good person, by all accounts. The face of baseball. Global attention and sales. Stonks. Somehow I can’t see him in a Sox uniform. The idea feels…odd. And I can’t shake it. Part of it is definitely the fear I have that he will break down and break down quickly. The human body can only take so much, and hitters and pitchers both have retired with less wear, never mind someone who is both a hitter and a pitcher (and also undergoing surgical repair for his pitching arm in 2024). It would bring tremendous joy to see him play for the Red Sox but it would also bring tremendous anxiety. He’ll require a commitment that will likely be record-setting in more than one way, and this may make or break your franchise for the next 10+ years. I’m not sure it’s worth the risk. Someone tell me why I shouldn’t feel this way. Just read the Schoenfeld piece in NYT Mag and this is pretty much exactly where I am.
Pitching and hitting full-time takes so much mental and physical preparation that it's simply unreasonable to expect his body to keep it up. He employs a Bradyesque level of discipline to pull it off but the toll pitching takes on a pitcher's longevity is arguably (and ironically) less damning than the amount of wear and tear endured by an experienced pocket passer. I had forgotten that this is Ohtani's second TJ. He's been amazing but it just seems so unsustainable.
As Schoenfeld points out, Ohtani's worst MLB hitting years were when he couldn't pitch (after his first TJ), with speculation that he had too much idle time that wasn't devoted to pitching preparation. Will that continue if he has to stop pitching or could he turn it the other way and threaten the Babe's single-season slugging marks?
Could he be an effective and valuable closer/slugger in his late career? There are just so many questions combined with what is sure to be a stratospheric, long-term salary commitment.
I have a feeling all the Ohtani to BOS speculation will be scuppered by a decision to go to a team with a more consistent history of making the playoffs, like LAD or MFY or HOU. It feels like Kevin Durant going to the Warriors to me (but less cynical). At the same time, I don't see MFY extending for him, since they are already in too deep with Stanton, Cole, Judge, Rodon, all through 2027 and beyond, and even Le Mahieu (2026) and Rizzo (2024/25 option) at $32m combined. I think NYM are out after this season's spectacle; they have publicly designated 2024 as a rebuild, which can't sound great to Ohtani.
HOU and LAD are easily the in the best payroll shape to absorb Ohtani without missing a step. LAD has to be the odds-on favorite -- he wouldn't have to change a thing about his personal life, which seems like it could be a big deal for someone who is so regimented. ATL is my dark horse. I would put the likelhoods at 55% LAD, 30% HOU, 10% ATL, and 5% for the field.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2023 23:12:32 GMT -5
No, the Sox arent a slam dunk to make the playoffs with Ohtani the way the Dodgers would be
The Angels won 73 games with Ohtani. The Sox won 78 games without Ohtani. Ohtani presence maybe gives them an additional 5 wins.
If I were Ohtani, I'd want to know that the Sox are bringing in 2 front line starters. If they do that could vault them to 90 win status and Ohtani would have a legit reason to think the Sox are a real playoff possibility, and the Sox do have some good position prospects on the way in Anthony. Mayer, and Teel.
I can't imagine the Sox would land Ohtani and stop there without fixing the pitching.
How they make the money work would be interesting, but I cant say that I'm overly worried about Henry's profit/loss statement.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 7, 2023 6:26:49 GMT -5
No, the Sox arent a slam dunk to make the playoffs with Ohtani the way the Dodgers would be The Angels won 73 games with Ohtani. The Sox won 78 games without Ohtani. Ohtani presence maybe gives them an additional 5 wins. If I were Ihtanu, I'd want to know that the Sox are bringing in 2 front line starters. If they do that could vault them to 90 win status and Ohtani would have a legit reason to think the Sox are a real playoff possibility, and the Sox do have some good position prospects on the way in Anthony. Mayer, and Teel. . I would think playing with Masa and Yamamoto would make it very comfortable for him in Boston. Can always trade for a starter. As soon as he’s healthy. 2025. There’s your Big 3. Ohtani, Yamamoto and Bello.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
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Post by radiohix on Oct 7, 2023 7:19:30 GMT -5
There’s a crazy story that his manager Phil Nevin told Rich Eisen a few months ago that still blows my mind. The Angels were taking batting practice in YS, Ohtani shows up, Nevin asks him “what are you doing here?” Because he rarely takes live batting practices and prefer hitting indoors, he tells him that he wants change his routine a little bit because he was homeless for about a week. The dude takes his first round and after finishing, he goes to the skipper and asks him where do Judge and Stanton hit their longest homers in BP (Nevin was of course, the MFY 3rd base coach), he tells him “A little above that restaurant where the cameras are, those are the furthest I’ve seen”. Second round, the man starts hitting NUKES well above the restaurant and the cameras AS A LEFT HANDED HITTER! No doubt in my mind he could be a +.300 and 45+ HRs if he calls Fenway home.
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Post by costpet on Oct 7, 2023 8:55:04 GMT -5
I don't think he goes to the MFYs. They have too much over the L.tax already. They are paying 60M this year alone. I doubt Hal wants to add to that. (they were #2 in the tax number. Mets #1 at $103M)
I think, when it comes time to decide, he goes with LA. That's 3000 miles closer to Japan.
I also doubt the Sox want to commit too much money to one guy, when they desperately need starting pitchers. They haven't been able to develop their own SPs, so they have to go on the market to buy some. So, all this speculation is just that.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 7, 2023 9:13:41 GMT -5
Distance isn't going to be the issue. LA to Tokyo - 12.5 hour flight, Boston to Tokyo - 14 hour flight.
Living in a community of Japanese, on the other hand, is a real consideration. There are 175K Japanese living in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, Boston isn't even in the top 10 cities so it's less than 25K.
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Post by bluechip on Oct 7, 2023 9:58:54 GMT -5
Distance isn't going to be the issue. LA to Tokyo - 12.5 hour flight, Boston to Tokyo - 14 hour flight. Living in a community of Japanese, on the other hand, is a real consideration. There are 175K Japanese living in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, Boston isn't even in the top 10 cities so it's less than 25K. Dice-K still lives in Massachusetts. Obviously everyone is different, but he did stay here despite being a massive star in Japan. In fact they made that pitch to Ohtani back in 2017.
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Post by charmcitysoxfan on Oct 7, 2023 10:03:17 GMT -5
No, the Sox arent a slam dunk to make the playoffs with Ohtani the way the Dodgers would be The Angels won 73 games with Ohtani. The Sox won 78 games without Ohtani. Ohtani presence maybe gives them an additional 5 wins. If I were Ihtanu, I'd want to know that the Sox are bringing in 2 front line starters. If they do that could vault them to 90 win status and Ohtani would have a legit reason to think the Sox are a real playoff possibility, and the Sox do have some good position prospects on the way in Anthony. Mayer, and Teel. . I would think playing with Masa and Yamamoto would make it very comfortable for him in Boston. Can always trade for a starter. As soon as he’s healthy. 2025. There’s your Big 3. Ohtani, Yamamoto and Bello.
According to RedSox Payrolls there is only $114M committed for 2025. (assuming Sales option isn't picked up) The first level of the CBT in 2025 is $241M.
It's not just about this year.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 7, 2023 11:50:15 GMT -5
I don't think he goes to the MFYs. They have too much over the L.tax already. They are paying 60M this year alone. I doubt Hal wants to add to that. (they were #2 in the tax number. Mets #1 at $103M) I think, when it comes time to decide, he goes with LA. That's 3000 miles closer to Japan.I also doubt the Sox want to commit too much money to one guy, when they desperately need starting pitchers. They haven't been able to develop their own SPs, so they have to go on the market to buy some. So, all this speculation is just that. Azimuths, people. LA is only 1,200 miles closer to Tokyo than Boston is.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 7, 2023 11:55:18 GMT -5
I don't think he goes to the MFYs. They have too much over the L.tax already. They are paying 60M this year alone. I doubt Hal wants to add to that. (they were #2 in the tax number. Mets #1 at $103M) I think, when it comes time to decide, he goes with LA. That's 3000 miles closer to Japan.I also doubt the Sox want to commit too much money to one guy, when they desperately need starting pitchers. They haven't been able to develop their own SPs, so they have to go on the market to buy some. So, all this speculation is just that. Azimuths, people. LA is only 1,200 miles closer to Tokyo than Boston is. yeah.. 2-3 hours longer on a plane and once you’re facing a dozen hours does that extra two really matter much?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 7, 2023 12:05:00 GMT -5
I've mentioned before when Japanese players come up, but wanted to reiterate that time-zone is a huge issue.
If the Angels have a game at 7PM, and Ohtani wants to talk to family/friends beforehand at 3PM-5PM (PT), it's 7AM-9AM in Japan.
If the Red Sox have a game at 7PM, and Yoshida wants to talk to family/friends beforehand at 3PM-5PM (ET), it's 4AM-6AM in Japan.
Communication with east-asia can be a pain, but it's much easier from the west coast than the east coast. It's even tougher for those with children (likely why Dice-K brought his family to the US). Masa has 2 very young children but I don't believe Shohei or Yoshi have any (may help the Red Sox cause).
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 7, 2023 12:44:22 GMT -5
So talk to your kids/wife post-game if you're on the east coast. I think they'd rather do that anyway. Focus on your pre-game prep, talk to family afterwards.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 7, 2023 12:51:57 GMT -5
Every single off-season we do this: speculate about where Japanese players will go based on arcane quality-of-life issues. I don't get it. We don't do this for Dominican players (why doesn't every Dominican free agent sign in Miami or New York?). Nor, really, for American players, even though they're a lot more likely to have those sorts of concerns about being close to family (e.g. Zach Eflin).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 7, 2023 13:26:17 GMT -5
So talk to your kids/wife post-game if you're on the east coast. I think they'd rather do that anyway. Focus on your pre-game prep, talk to family afterwards. Unfortunately that's usually not an option. If your wife/GF/parents/friends work or go to school, then you don't get the chance. They can still communicate in the mornings from the US when it's evening in Japan, but they can do that on either coast. This isn't just a baseball issue, the difference in time-zone is an issue for the millions of people who either have families across the Pacific or who work with those across the Pacific. Unfortunately due to the timing of baseball games it's slightly tougher for east coast players.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 7, 2023 13:50:45 GMT -5
I've mentioned before when Japanese players come up, but wanted to reiterate that time-zone is a huge issue. If the Angels have a game at 7PM, and Ohtani wants to talk to family/friends beforehand at 3PM-5PM (PT), it's 7AM-9AM in Japan. If the Red Sox have a game at 7PM, and Yoshida wants to talk to family/friends beforehand at 3PM-5PM (ET), it's 4AM-6AM in Japan. Communication with east-asia can be a pain, but it's much easier from the west coast than the east coast. It's even tougher for those with children (likely why Dice-K brought his family to the US). Masa has 2 very young children but I don't believe Shohei or Yoshi have any (may help the Red Sox cause). Per Shoenfeld, Ohtani's first daughter will be born when he's 31.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 7, 2023 13:55:31 GMT -5
So talk to your kids/wife post-game if you're on the east coast. I think they'd rather do that anyway. Focus on your pre-game prep, talk to family afterwards. Unfortunately that's usually not an option. If your wife/GF/parents/friends work or go to school, then you don't get the chance. They can still communicate in the mornings from the US when it's evening in Japan, but they can do that on either coast.This isn't just a baseball issue, the difference in time-zone is an issue for the millions of people who either have families across the Pacific or who work with those across the Pacific. Unfortunately due to the timing of baseball games it's slightly tougher for east coast players. Problem solved, then. This is not as a big an issue as you're making it out be. Senga is with the Mets, we have Masa, and had Dice-K and Koji, Yanks had Matsui. Ton of other east coast Japanese players. It's a non-issue.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 7, 2023 13:57:09 GMT -5
So talk to your kids/wife post-game if you're on the east coast. I think they'd rather do that anyway. Focus on your pre-game prep, talk to family afterwards. Unfortunately that's usually not an option. If your wife/GF/parents/friends work or go to school, then you don't get the chance. They can still communicate in the mornings from the US when it's evening in Japan, but they can do that on either coast. This isn't just a baseball issue, the difference in time-zone is an issue for the millions of people who either have families across the Pacific or who work with those across the Pacific. Unfortunately due to the timing of baseball games it's slightly tougher for east coast players. I would think it's more about whether family and friends can regularly watch them play.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 7, 2023 13:59:19 GMT -5
Every single off-season we do this: speculate about where Japanese players will go based on arcane quality-of-life issues. I don't get it. We don't do this for Dominican players (why doesn't every Dominican free agent sign in Miami or New York?). Nor, really, for American players, even though they're a lot more likely to have those sorts of concerns about being close to family (e.g. Zach Eflin). It's different for every case. E-Rod turned down a shot at a playoff run in LA to stay in Detroit. I doubt it has anything to do with him being Venezuelan.
Edit: Personally, I hope that Yamamoto has a long-time fascination with the Freedom Trail...
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 7, 2023 14:40:35 GMT -5
I think these are sensible concerns if we were talking about the average player, but we’re not. This guy is a national hero who has had a media circus following him since he was a child. By all accounts Ohtani is basically a baseball monk who spends the bad majority of his time sleeping, eating, or playing baseball. He doesn’t have kids. He doesn’t even have a girlfriend as far as anyone can tell. He saw his family six days a year when he was in high school!
I don’t think proximity to Japan or local Japanese community matter at all to him. I don’t even think the money matters that much to him. His decision is going to come down to where he thinks he will get the best baseball experience possible. The relative solitude of Boston may be a plus for all we know.
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