SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
What AAV Will Ohtani Get in the Free Agent Market?
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 17, 2023 9:07:53 GMT -5
If he prefers the West Coast then it's likely the Dodgers. The Dodgers got under the luxury tax limit this season. I assumed its because they'll be heavy after Ohtani this offseason. I think LAD may actually be over on the luxury tax again because they're still responsible for Bauer's remaining salary. Per Cot's they're over by about $17m. They're on the hook for about $25m of Bauer's deal.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 17, 2023 9:23:48 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 17, 2023 9:41:04 GMT -5
What is crazy is Ohtani might end up being the first 500 and 600 million dollar player on the same day
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 17, 2023 9:58:23 GMT -5
In his career he's been about a 3.5 WAR/600 PA hitter and a 4.9 WAR/180 IP as a hitter. So that's 8.4 WAR/full season.
For context, Mookie Betts was a 6.6 WAR/600 PA player in the four seasons before he signed his contract. So Ohtani is maybe 2 WAR/year more valuable than Betts, who's AAV is ~26 million. Just adding in that greater value, plus inflation, might get you to the mid 40s in AAV.
Or compare Trout, who signed an extension at a $36 million AAV when he was basically a 10 WAR/year player; at that point Trout should have projected to be straight up more valuable that Shohei (though he wasn't a free agent, so there is that).
And I think it's possible the injury risk and general uncertainty knocks the value down more than some might expect. He's still a giant unprecedented experiment, who to date has only thrown 368 major league innings. We don't actually know if he can hold up over the long term. I'd guess an AAV in the low 40s for 10-11 years.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Apr 17, 2023 11:04:50 GMT -5
In his career he's been about a 3.5 WAR/600 PA hitter and a 4.9 WAR/180 IP as a hitter. So that's 8.4 WAR/full season.
For context, Mookie Betts was a 6.6 WAR/600 PA player in the four seasons before he signed his contract. So Ohtani is maybe 2 WAR/year more valuable than Betts, who's AAV is ~26 million. Just adding in that greater value, plus inflation, might get you to the mid 40s in AAV.
Or compare Trout, who signed an extension at a $36 million AAV when he was basically a 10 WAR/year player; at that point Trout should have projected to be straight up more valuable that Shohei (though he wasn't a free agent, so there is that).
And I think it's possible the injury risk and general uncertainty knocks the value down more than some might expect. He's still a giant unprecedented experiment, who to date has only thrown 368 major league innings. We don't actually know if he can hold up over the long term. I'd guess an AAV in the low 40s for 10-11 years.
I agree with a lot of this but, assuming he makes it through this year healthy and puts up the type of #s that have him the cy young and MVP category I think he gets 45ish AAV on a long term deal perhaps more. As we've all seen, all it takes is one team to come in and drop the hammer in negotiations to push him up to or over 50M AAV. It'll be very interesting either way but as I've kind of stated elsewhere, I'm not sure I want to the see the Sox hand him that type of deal but at the same time I sure wouldn't be upset at seeing Ohtani in a Sox uni either.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 17, 2023 11:48:44 GMT -5
You see, I love and hate these conversations. Because they make me feel like a fraud as a baseball fan. One second I feel I’m right that someone’s giving him 600 million, then I find myself reading someone’s else’s argument and thinking “huh….you know what, it probably is going to be something in the 45 million per annum range).
But hearing someone say “it only takes one team” usually I assume there is going to be one team. If LA/NY M-Y are among the bidding the chances are high.
Another thing that has been bothering me now is can he really pitch and hit throughout his 30’s and into his 40’s??? I don’t think it’s outlandish to assume at some point in his career he switches to focusing on one side of the ball. How long from now is that? 4 years? 9 years? Idk. But it’s hard to seeing him bat every day and pitch every 5th day when he’s 38 years old.
If he does. We are going to have to create a new tier higher than the hall of fame just to put him there in a league of his own
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 17, 2023 14:51:39 GMT -5
You see, I love and hate these conversations. Because they make me feel like a fraud as a baseball fan. One second I feel I’m right that someone’s giving him 600 million, then I find myself reading someone’s else’s argument and thinking “huh….you know what, it probably is going to be something in the 45 million per annum range). But hearing someone say “it only takes one team” usually I assume there is going to be one team. If LA/NY M-Y are among the bidding the chances are high. Another thing that has been bothering me now is can he really pitch and hit throughout his 30’s and into his 40’s??? I don’t think it’s outlandish to assume at some point in his career he switches to focusing on one side of the ball. How long from now is that? 4 years? 9 years? Idk. But it’s hard to seeing him bat every day and pitch every 5th day when he’s 38 years old. If he does. We are going to have to create a new tier higher than the hall of fame just to put him there in a league of his own I'm thinking the hit tool might hang around to age 35-38 (Turner, Cruz a few others) but that he'll likely make the transition to closer around age 34 or so. I wonder if he'd sign a contract that says if he can no longer be a two-way player he gets a salary reduction or can exercise an opt out?
|
|
|
Post by nhsoxfan on Apr 17, 2023 15:42:47 GMT -5
Considering only his on field performance, he's worth probably 50M-60M AAV. TO THE FRANCHISE, he'd probably be worth 100M plus in revenue from more than just a baseball standpoint.
Having said that, I'd be leery but someone won't.
FWIW, I'd agree that at this point he's trending toward being a top 10-20 player of all time, if he stays healthy. If he ever hits for a better average, he creeps up even higher. Currently, his most similar BR hitter is Pete Alonso.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Apr 17, 2023 16:20:08 GMT -5
[MEDIA=twitter]1648071995697909761[/MEDIA] View:
Ohtani on Fenway: “It’s one of my favorite parks, so I always look forward to pitching here. But the conditions didn’t allow me to have fun fully. Other than that I always look forward to pitching here."
Tomorrow's Globe: Sox must put retractable roof on Fenway.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Apr 18, 2023 0:01:31 GMT -5
This just in Padres to offer Ohtani 15 years at 100 million per year.
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Apr 18, 2023 7:41:44 GMT -5
The first Billion dollar player?
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Apr 18, 2023 9:05:36 GMT -5
He came over for less money than he could have had. Maybe he does the same thing to go to a winner this time. It has to be getting old to keep on losing.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2023 9:37:24 GMT -5
Hypothetically, what do you give up for two months of Ohtani, or "two months of Ohtani, with a realistic plan of action/hope to resign him"... In this scenario I'm calling the Angels and saying after the Big Three of Mayer, Bleis, Casas we are open for business, but I doubt realistically the Angels ever get that to point. Them refusing to trade him and then losing him in free agency seems like the most Angels-y outcome to all this!
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 20, 2023 9:51:28 GMT -5
Hypothetically, what do you give up for two months of Ohtani, or "two months of Ohtani, with a realistic plan of action/hope to resign him"... In this scenario I'm calling the Angels and saying after the Big Three of Mayer, Bleis, Casas we are open for business, but I doubt realistically the Angels ever get that to point. Them refusing to trade him and then losing him in free agency seems like the most Angels-y outcome to all this! I don’t think you get Ohtani *for* Mayer, Bleis, and Casas, much less without them.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 20, 2023 10:01:15 GMT -5
Depends how high the Mets Yankees or Dodgers want to go. Those will be the top bidders for him. I'd say he's going to make probably 45 million a year.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Apr 20, 2023 10:07:53 GMT -5
Hypothetically, what do you give up for two months of Ohtani, or "two months of Ohtani, with a realistic plan of action/hope to resign him"... In this scenario I'm calling the Angels and saying after the Big Three of Mayer, Bleis, Casas we are open for business, but I doubt realistically the Angels ever get that to point. Them refusing to trade him and then losing him in free agency seems like the most Angels-y outcome to all this! I don’t think you get Ohtani *for* Mayer, Bleis, and Casas, much less without them. Not with how Casas has been doing, though I still have faith he'll be a good 1st baseman. That being said, I don't know, Mayer is a top 10-15 guy right now and Bleis is in the top 50-100 in most publications and is trending upwards and was a guy some writers said could have the one of the biggest jump in the farm this year. Theoretically if Bleis by the deadline is a top 10 guy I don't see how two top 10 prospects in baseball don't get close to getting Ohtani. That being said I'm not giving that up for 2 months of Ohtani.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 20, 2023 10:11:14 GMT -5
I don’t think you get Ohtani *for* Mayer, Bleis, and Casas, much less without them. Not with how Casas has been doing, though I still have faith he'll be a good 1st baseman. That being said, I don't know, Mayer is a top 10-15 guy right now and Bleis is in the top 50-100 in most publications and is trending upwards and was a guy some writers said could have the one of the biggest jump in the farm this year. Theoretically if Bleis by the deadline is a top 10 guy I don't see how two top 10 prospects in baseball don't get close to getting Ohtani. That being said I'm not giving that up for 2 months of Ohtani. I would imagine they’d want a few premium prospects and an immediately ready major leaguer. If they do trade Ohtani… how do you think Trout feels? Basically it is like saying “sorry, Mike… no playoffs for you.”
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Apr 20, 2023 10:18:17 GMT -5
If the Angels wanted Mayer, Bleis, and Casas for Ohtani, I'd give them each a pat on the back and wish them well in California. Without a tacit agreement about an extension, my instinct is that 2 months of Ohtani probably nets 2 of most organization's top 3 prospects, plus maybe some ready-to-go MLB bullpen arms. If a pre-FA extension is viable, I could see a team parting with their whole top 5.
Also, I bet Trout's reaction would be, "Nice weather we're having today. Hope the Eagles are good again this year..."
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Apr 20, 2023 10:18:58 GMT -5
Not with how Casas has been doing, though I still have faith he'll be a good 1st baseman. That being said, I don't know, Mayer is a top 10-15 guy right now and Bleis is in the top 50-100 in most publications and is trending upwards and was a guy some writers said could have the one of the biggest jump in the farm this year. Theoretically if Bleis by the deadline is a top 10 guy I don't see how two top 10 prospects in baseball don't get close to getting Ohtani. That being said I'm not giving that up for 2 months of Ohtani. I would imagine they’d want a few premium prospects and an immediately ready major leaguer. If they do trade Ohtani… how do you think Trout feels? Basically it is like saying “sorry, Mike… no playoffs for you.” Probably would but look at the Juan Soto deal. He brought back 5 good prospects, two of which were ML ready in Abrams and Gore but that was for 2.5 years of Soto. Is 2 months of Ohtani worth as much or more than what Soto got? I'm not so sure he would be with the way teams seem to hoard prospects these days. Also if they lose Ohtani if I'm the Angels I'm thinking hard about flipping Trout while I'm at it and just tearing it all down. They haven't had much success with arguably the two best players in baseball, it's probably time to re-think it if I was them. Like I said though, I'm not giving up that type of package for two months of Ohtani, let's be honest this team isn't an Ohtani away from being a WS contender to me. Heck even if he signed an extension I may not want to, I'd have visions of being no better than the Angels have been if they gut the farm to acquire him. It'd be another extremely top heavy team, which the Sox kind of already are but at least we have guys like Mayer and Bleis on the horizon to hopefully pan out and make the team more well rounded.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2023 10:40:27 GMT -5
I would imagine they’d want a few premium prospects and an immediately ready major leaguer. If they do trade Ohtani… how do you think Trout feels? Basically it is like saying “sorry, Mike… no playoffs for you.” Probably would but look at the Juan Soto deal. He brought back 5 good prospects, two of which were ML ready in Abrams and Gore but that was for 2.5 years of Soto. Is 2 months of Ohtani worth as much or more than what Soto got? I'm not so sure he would be with the way teams seem to hoard prospects these days. Also if they lose Ohtani if I'm the Angels I'm thinking hard about flipping Trout while I'm at it and just tearing it all down. They haven't had much success with arguably the two best players in baseball, it's probably time to re-think it if I was them. Like I said though, I'm not giving up that type of package for two months of Ohtani, let's be honest this team isn't an Ohtani away from being a WS contender to me. Heck even if he signed an extension I may not want to, I'd have visions of being no better than the Angels have been if they gut the farm to acquire him. It'd be another extremely top heavy team, which the Sox kind of already are but at least we have guys like Mayer and Bleis on the horizon to hopefully pan out and make the team more well rounded. Yeah, I think it's a different conversation if you knew he was going to extend. But I don't know why his agent wouldn't just have him test the market. Like I'm sure you have to give up a bundle of prospects (Rafaela, Mata, Yorke?), but if the Angels are asking for your absolute best prospect or so, you as a GM can say, "we hope you guys enjoy the last two months of Ohtani before he goes to the Mets!" and then hang up.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Apr 20, 2023 11:15:50 GMT -5
This will be interesting to see how it plays out. If I could get a negotiation window it would change the package I’d be willing to give but at this stage why would he sign a few months before hitting the market? I wonder if they could shop Trout as well and start their rebuild?
|
|
|
Post by nhsoxfan on Apr 20, 2023 11:45:04 GMT -5
Hot take but the Angels should have traded Trout long ago.
Not a big Trout guy in the first place but their insistence in not cashing in on him all this time and having disappointing season after disappointing season is really something.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Apr 20, 2023 11:53:09 GMT -5
Hot take but the Angels should have traded Trout long ago. Not a big Trout guy in the first place but their insistence in not cashing in on him all this time and having disappointing season after disappointing season is really something. Probably shouldn't bite on this but what the heck do you mean "not a big Trout guy in the first place?.." The guy is 31 years old and is already a sure fire hall of famer. His numbers are cartoonish with how good they are.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Apr 20, 2023 11:54:49 GMT -5
It's hard to believe the return for two months of any player would be a haul. Not unless there was some sort of off the record handshake agreement concerning a new contract.
|
|
|
Post by nhsoxfan on Apr 20, 2023 12:14:57 GMT -5
Hot take but the Angels should have traded Trout long ago. Not a big Trout guy in the first place but their insistence in not cashing in on him all this time and having disappointing season after disappointing season is really something. Probably shouldn't bite on this but what the heck do you mean "not a big Trout guy in the first place?.." The guy is 31 years old and is already a sure fire hall of famer. His numbers are cartoonish with how good they are. You'd think at his age and being a supposed Top 10 player of all time he'd have willed his team to at least a playoff win, right? How many other sure fire HOFers barely even played in a playoff game? It's an interesting question. He's a compiler. And I'm allowed to have my own opinion, right? Some of you are flat out rude.
|
|
|