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What AAV Will Ohtani Get in the Free Agent Market?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 20, 2023 12:18:42 GMT -5
Probably shouldn't bite on this but what the heck do you mean "not a big Trout guy in the first place?.." The guy is 31 years old and is already a sure fire hall of famer. His numbers are cartoonish with how good they are. You'd think at his age and being a supposed Top 10 player of all time he'd have willed his team to at least a playoff win, right? How many other sure fire HOFers barely even played in a playoff game? It's an interesting question. He's a compiler. And I'm allowed to have my own opinion, right? Some of you are flat out rude. You're allowed to have your own opinion, and we are allowed to point out that your opinion sucks if that is the case. How many examples of baseball players "willing their team" to playoff success with crappy rosters in the modern game can you rattle off? I'd wager not many legitimate ones. Baseball is the preeminent team sport in that regard, it's not like basketball where a single great player or football where a great quarterback can be the tide that lifts all boats. All baseball players are "compilers", Trout just happens to be compiling better than most we've ever seen and it's not like he hasn't passed the eye test, either.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 20, 2023 12:18:57 GMT -5
Probably shouldn't bite on this but what the heck do you mean "not a big Trout guy in the first place?.." The guy is 31 years old and is already a sure fire hall of famer. His numbers are cartoonish with how good they are. You'd think at his age and being a supposed Top 10 player of all time he'd have willed his team to at least a playoff win, right? How many other sure fire HOFers barely even played in a playoff game? It's an interesting question. He's a compiler. And I'm allowed to have my own opinion, right? Some of you are flat out rude. He's been on a team with basically nobody else worth much for his whole career, baseball is a sport where one guy no matter how good they are and Trout is an all timer is going to be able to "will" his team to a playoff win. No idea what you mean by saying he's a "compiler" and yea sure you can have your own opinion but if you're going to throw out some of these types of opinion I don't know what type of responses back you're going to expect.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 20, 2023 16:56:51 GMT -5
Probably shouldn't bite on this but what the heck do you mean "not a big Trout guy in the first place?.." The guy is 31 years old and is already a sure fire hall of famer. His numbers are cartoonish with how good they are. You'd think at his age and being a supposed Top 10 player of all time he'd have willed his team to at least a playoff win, right? How many other sure fire HOFers barely even played in a playoff game? It's an interesting question. He's a compiler. And I'm allowed to have my own opinion, right? Some of you are flat out rude. This is a legitimate argument when discussing basketball or football, where the most used statistics are often dependent on the surrounding players and aren't particularly reflective of team contribution. But baseball is a series of 1-on-1 matchups, so the player's success, and contribution to the success of their team, has very little dependency upon the surrounding players. And as others have mentioned, no batter affects the outcome of the game more-or-less than another, aside from plate appearances. (aside from being 'clutch' which is mostly randomness)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 20, 2023 17:33:42 GMT -5
Probably shouldn't bite on this but what the heck do you mean "not a big Trout guy in the first place?.." The guy is 31 years old and is already a sure fire hall of famer. His numbers are cartoonish with how good they are. You'd think at his age and being a supposed Top 10 player of all time he'd have willed his team to at least a playoff win, right? How many other sure fire HOFers barely even played in a playoff game? It's an interesting question. He's a compiler. And I'm allowed to have my own opinion, right? Some of you are flat out rude. It's a team game. One player can only do so much. It's Trout's organization's fault that they also have two superstars and a bunch of mediocrities. Trout can't "will" his teammates to win. If they're not good enough they're not good enough. By the way Ernie Banks never saw the post season. He had 2 MVPs but was always on a lousy team except for the 69 team that blew a sizeable lead to the Miracle Mets To me Trout is this generation's Mickey Mantle. The major difference is that he drinks fat less and plays on a crappy team instead of a great one. And no, he's anything but a compiler. Compilers hang on because they can stay average or above for a long time even if they're not dominant. Trout IS dominant. They're are no consistently better players. Judge had a year last year. Mookie in 2018 and Ohtani is a unicorn, but none of them are as consistently dominant as Trout is year in and year out.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 8, 2023 9:47:36 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2023 9:56:15 GMT -5
So what do they say?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 8, 2023 10:01:31 GMT -5
Did he talk to the same group of execs that led to his Yoshida will bust article?
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Post by asm19 on Sept 25, 2023 22:20:04 GMT -5
Ohtani’s market is a more fascinating question since his UCL injury and elbow surgery (the specifics of which have been kept quiet.)
Additionally, teams that seemed poised to be aggressive may be curtailing such plans (see the Padres reports of cutting spending, or the Mets telling Scherzer they foresaw 2024 as a bridge year), and others (like the Red Sox?) may be opening their checkbooks.
Went through the teams and was trying to think who might still be in the Ohtani Sweepstakes
Won’t Spend What it Takes:
Tampa, Orioles. The AL Central (Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Guardians, Royals), Oakland.
Nationals, Marlins, the NL Central except Cubs (Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates). Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres
Maybe one of the billionaires who owns these teams goes for it, but either recent history or circumstances would suggest it’s unlikely.
In Theory Could Afford - But Do They Want to Go Crazy?
Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Phillies
These teams are some combination of focused on other needs (such as Blue Jays needed to extend Bichette/Vladdy soon and resign half a lineup), not desperate enough (Braves, Astros), maybe not thrilled about the cost even if they could (Cubs?) or already have a lot of money locked up (Phillies, Rangers). But they have shown they can shell out cash.
NYC - They Have Money… Does the Owner Want to Spend?
Yankees, Mets
🤷♂️
“Please Come Back”
Angels
This won’t happen. Let’s move on.
West Coast Team With Ichiro’s Legacy
Mariners
They have a moderately clean payroll, a good young core, an appeal to Japanese players cemented by Ichiro. Really the only question is if their budget can afford Shohei, which we don’t really know.
Desperate to Make a Splash?
Red Sox, Giants
Both teams are under the CBT. The Red Sox have fired their GM and certain personalities (Middlebrooks, Gammons) have thrown it out there. Tom Werner has publicly thirsted over Ohtani. The Giants tried like hell to get a big fish last year - but presumably their powder is dry for another go.
Inevitable?
Dodgers
It’s a bit under the radar… but it appears the Dodgers never actually reset the CBT from what I have seen. They might just not care. Half of their pitchers have like Tommy John. It’s unclear how Ohtani’s injury would affect their pursuit. Perhaps it’s there’s some groupthink/echo chamber effect at play and that’s why it’s assumed he’s going here, but it’s not crazy to think this is the market setter for Ohtani.
I might be off base on a few of these, but I wonder if this ultimately comes down to just a few teams if certain big market teams are either scared off or aren’t spending for their own reasons.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2023 0:02:54 GMT -5
Ohtani’s market is a more fascinating question since his UCL injury and elbow surgery (the specifics of which have been kept quiet.) Additionally, teams that seemed poised to be aggressive may be curtailing such plans (see the Padres reports of cutting spending, or the Mets telling Scherzer they foresaw 2024 as a bridge year), and others (like the Red Sox?) may be opening their checkbooks. Went through the teams and was trying to think who might still be in the Ohtani Sweepstakes Won’t Spend What it Takes:Tampa, Orioles. The AL Central (Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Guardians, Royals), Oakland. Nationals, Marlins, the NL Central except Cubs (Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates). Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres Maybe one of the billionaires who owns these teams goes for it, but either recent history or circumstances would suggest it’s unlikely. In Theory Could Afford - But Do They Want to Go Crazy?Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Phillies These teams are some combination of focused on other needs (such as Blue Jays needed to extend Bichette/Vladdy soon and resign half a lineup), not desperate enough (Braves, Astros), maybe not thrilled about the cost even if they could (Cubs?) or already have a lot of money locked up (Phillies, Rangers). But they have shown they can shell out cash. NYC - They Have Money… Does the Owner Want to Spend?Yankees, Mets 🤷♂️ “Please Come Back”Angels This won’t happen. Let’s move on. West Coast Team With Ichiro’s LegacyMariners They have a moderately clean payroll, a good young core, an appeal to Japanese players cemented by Ichiro. Really the only question is if their budget can afford Shohei, which we don’t really know. Desperate to Make a Splash?
Red Sox, Giants Both teams are under the CBT. The Red Sox have fired their GM and certain personalities (Middlebrooks, Gammons) have thrown it out there. Tom Werner has publicly thirsted over Ohtani. The Giants tried like hell to get a big fish last year - but presumably their powder is dry for another go. Inevitable?Dodgers It’s a bit under the radar… but it appears the Dodgers never actually reset the CBT from what I have seen. They might just not care. Half of their pitchers have like Tommy John. It’s unclear how Ohtani’s injury would affect their pursuit. Perhaps it’s there’s some groupthink/echo chamber effect at play and that’s why it’s assumed he’s going here, but it’s not crazy to think this is the market setter for Ohtani. I might be off base on a few of these, but I wonder if this ultimately comes down to just a few teams if certain big market teams are either scared off or aren’t spending for their own reasons. Overall seems logical. I'd put the Phillies in some other category and wouldn't be shocked if DD went for both Otani and Trout. If forced to place a bet, Otani to the Dodgers, Trout to the Phillies.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 0:30:58 GMT -5
Ohtani’s market is a more fascinating question since his UCL injury and elbow surgery (the specifics of which have been kept quiet.) Additionally, teams that seemed poised to be aggressive may be curtailing such plans (see the Padres reports of cutting spending, or the Mets telling Scherzer they foresaw 2024 as a bridge year), and others (like the Red Sox?) may be opening their checkbooks. Went through the teams and was trying to think who might still be in the Ohtani Sweepstakes Won’t Spend What it Takes:Tampa, Orioles. The AL Central (Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Guardians, Royals), Oakland. Nationals, Marlins, the NL Central except Cubs (Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates). Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres Maybe one of the billionaires who owns these teams goes for it, but either recent history or circumstances would suggest it’s unlikely. In Theory Could Afford - But Do They Want to Go Crazy?Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Phillies These teams are some combination of focused on other needs (such as Blue Jays needed to extend Bichette/Vladdy soon and resign half a lineup), not desperate enough (Braves, Astros), maybe not thrilled about the cost even if they could (Cubs?) or already have a lot of money locked up (Phillies, Rangers). But they have shown they can shell out cash. NYC - They Have Money… Does the Owner Want to Spend?Yankees, Mets 🤷♂️ “Please Come Back”Angels This won’t happen. Let’s move on. West Coast Team With Ichiro’s LegacyMariners They have a moderately clean payroll, a good young core, an appeal to Japanese players cemented by Ichiro. Really the only question is if their budget can afford Shohei, which we don’t really know. Desperate to Make a Splash?
Red Sox, Giants Both teams are under the CBT. The Red Sox have fired their GM and certain personalities (Middlebrooks, Gammons) have thrown it out there. Tom Werner has publicly thirsted over Ohtani. The Giants tried like hell to get a big fish last year - but presumably their powder is dry for another go. Inevitable?Dodgers It’s a bit under the radar… but it appears the Dodgers never actually reset the CBT from what I have seen. They might just not care. Half of their pitchers have like Tommy John. It’s unclear how Ohtani’s injury would affect their pursuit. Perhaps it’s there’s some groupthink/echo chamber effect at play and that’s why it’s assumed he’s going here, but it’s not crazy to think this is the market setter for Ohtani. I might be off base on a few of these, but I wonder if this ultimately comes down to just a few teams if certain big market teams are either scared off or aren’t spending for their own reasons. Overall seems logical. I'd put the Phillies in some other category and wouldn't be shocked if DD went for both Otani and Trout. If forced to place a bet, Otani to the Dodgers, Trout to the Phillies. That would be my guess.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2023 8:48:10 GMT -5
My totally made up betting odds for where I think Ohtani ends up:
Giants: 4:1 Dodgers: 5:1 Red Sox: 6:1 Mets: 6:1
Yankees: 7:1 Mariners: 9:1 Angels: 12:1 Cubs: 12:1 Tigers: 20:1 Rangers: 20:1 Astros: 30:1 Phillies: 40:1 Braves: 60:1 Marlins: 60:1 Cardinals: 80:1 Padres: 80:1
That probably doesn't add up right at all but you get the idea.
ADD: Did this before looking at the actual odds. Put your money on the Giants, people!
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Post by manfred on Sept 26, 2023 8:51:52 GMT -5
My totally made up betting odds for where I think Ohtani ends up:
Giants: 4:1 Dodgers: 5:1 Red Sox: 6:1 Mets: 6:1
Yankees: 7:1 Mariners: 9:1 Angels: 12:1 Cubs: 12:1 Tigers: 20:1 Rangers: 20:1 Astros: 30:1 Phillies: 40:1 Braves: 60:1 Marlins: 60:1 Cardinals: 80:1 Padres: 80:1
That's probably doesn't add up right at all but you get the idea.
I would put the Mariners high — equal to the two Cal teams. They are going to miss the playoffs by a hair, lose Teoscar. It would be the perfect move to put them over and to continue their momentum with a pretty good fan base.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 26, 2023 11:39:14 GMT -5
I wonder if Ohtani’s contract structure will look like a base of $25-$30M for him as a hitter, with tiered vesting bonuses for 50, 100, 125, and 150 IP (maybe $5M each) to get him in the $40-50M AAV range. I’m not sure what else makes sense risk wise
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 26, 2023 11:51:50 GMT -5
I wouldn't count out the Orioles. They gotta spend money at some point don't they?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 26, 2023 11:59:52 GMT -5
I wouldn't count out the Orioles. They gotta spend money at some point don't they? Considering their owner is already laying the groundwork for them to "have" to let go of some of their young talent in the future I wouldn't exactly bet on it.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 26, 2023 12:09:13 GMT -5
I wonder if Ohtani’s contract structure will look like a base of $25-$30M for him as a hitter, with tiered vesting bonuses for 50, 100, 125, and 150 IP (maybe $5M each) to get him in the $40-50M AAV range. I’m not sure what else makes sense risk wise This has been my guess for a while, even before the injury, but I think the base salary is probably higher and the bonuses a little smaller.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 26, 2023 12:12:16 GMT -5
The teams that make the most sense to me are the Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Mets and Red Sox. There's definitely a legacy/east coast market case to be made for the Mets and Red Sox. The Dodgers are obviously the best team/org and already in LA but winning a championship there would do the least for his legacy (though he would have the best odds of actually doing it).
I'm going to predict the Giants land him. They tried desperately to get a huge player last year, they have a great ballpark for him and great history. He gets to stay on the west coast.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 26, 2023 13:23:05 GMT -5
I wonder if Ohtani’s contract structure will look like a base of $25-$30M for him as a hitter, with tiered vesting bonuses for 50, 100, 125, and 150 IP (maybe $5M each) to get him in the $40-50M AAV range. I’m not sure what else makes sense risk wise This has been my guess for a while, even before the injury, but I think the base salary is probably higher and the bonuses a little smaller. Youre probably right but it’s hard to justify a giant AAV for a DH. On the flip side he could probably convert to RF if he ever had to give up on pitching since he’s fast and has a cannon.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Sept 28, 2023 20:18:59 GMT -5
Hot take but the Angels should have traded Trout long ago. Not a big Trout guy in the first place but their insistence in not cashing in on him all this time and having disappointing season after disappointing season is really something. Know what this* is? *7 25 2 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 1 0 5 0 30 5 0 .200 .333 .200 .533 That is the postseason stat line of The Greatest Hitter Whoever Lived. Not a lot of "willing his team to victory" going on there either. Yet I remain a Splendid Splinter Guy. Go figure.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 29, 2023 9:36:15 GMT -5
Ohtani is unlike any player we've seen in our lifetimes - a 28 year-old Top 10 pitcher last year (2.33 ERA/2.65 xFIP, 11.87 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR) and Top 15 hitter (.276/.355/.519 34HRs 31.8 Runs Above Average and 3.8 fWAR as almost exclusively a DH). According to Fangraphs, his combined fWAR was worth roughly $76M. Given that in the context of the current free agency market and his desire to be on a winning team, what do you think his AAV will be in his free agent deal? I'm glad to start with my back-of-the-envelope calculation (and I'm assuming no injury this year) and we can look at the actuals this winter to get a reality check for our estimations: $62MWelp, with the UCL injury I'm going to have to downgrade my opening bid - but not by much. $52MI'm not saying his pitching prowess is only worth $10M, but rather that his ability to put butts in seats/eyes on streams and draw ad dollars from Japan and elsewhere will more than justify this amount to some owner, even if he's just a DH. And they'll see him as a bargain once he starts pitching again in 2025.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2023 13:37:57 GMT -5
Ohtani is unlike any player we've seen in our lifetimes - a 28 year-old Top 10 pitcher last year (2.33 ERA/2.65 xFIP, 11.87 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR) and Top 15 hitter (.276/.355/.519 34HRs 31.8 Runs Above Average and 3.8 fWAR as almost exclusively a DH). According to Fangraphs, his combined fWAR was worth roughly $76M. Given that in the context of the current free agency market and his desire to be on a winning team, what do you think his AAV will be in his free agent deal? I'm glad to start with my back-of-the-envelope calculation (and I'm assuming no injury this year) and we can look at the actuals this winter to get a reality check for our estimations: $62MWelp, with the UCL injury I'm going to have to downgrade my opening bid - but not by much. $52MI'm not saying his pitching prowess is only worth $10M, but rather that his ability to put butts in seats/eyes on streams and draw ad dollars from Japan and elsewhere will more than justify this amount to some owner, even if he's just a DH. And they'll see him as a bargain once he starts pitching again in 2025. I hesitate a bit valuing his popularity so much for a few reasons: 1) He’s popular because he hits and pitches well which makes him the rarest athlete in the sport. If he doesn’t pitch, he will lose popularity 2) Nobody stays the coolest forever. It’s not like the MLB will be Ohtani mania for a decade. Even if he’s the face of baseball, his popularity has probably already peaked. Jeter was the face of baseball for over a decade, but it’s not like he got paid a ton more because of it 3) Yes, owners obviously want to make money and spend their money wisely/limit expenses to a certain extent, but Henry & co definitely do still care about winning despite claims to the contrary. I don’t think they’ll ensure paying the luxury tax for a long time largely on the basis of a player’s media/fan attention I think the base will be much lower than $52M and it will have a bunch of escalators. I imagine it will be a very funky contract. But if you’re right, then I want no part of it.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2023 14:24:37 GMT -5
I'm going to guess baseline 9 years 360M which is what Judge got with the addition of incentives for pitching. I just don't see how a team could go to 50+ million for a guy on the hopes that he can come back and pitch as effectively on his 2nd TJ surgery. Even 9 years 360 might be too much since Judge offers plus defense in OF as far as I know anyway. I think if Ohtani can't pitch he probably can go play RF but that's still a maybe.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 29, 2023 14:59:49 GMT -5
Just a question, but if it's a bit too dangerous to count on Ohtani as a pitcher could he be a closer where his arm is not used as much and also a DH and perhaps RF?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 29, 2023 18:05:41 GMT -5
Just a question, but if it's a bit too dangerous to count on Ohtani as a pitcher could he be a closer where his arm is not used as much and also a DH and perhaps RF? What happens when he leads off the bottom of the 8th with a 1 run lead, rips a double, and then gets stranded at 3rd to end the inning? Not sure how he's getting ready to close out the game in time, and to make things worse, your setup man just threw 25 pitches, and your 3rd best reliever has gone back to back days. Having him as your closer seems to risky with too many non ideal scenarios that could pop up.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 29, 2023 18:14:45 GMT -5
Just a question, but if it's a bit too dangerous to count on Ohtani as a pitcher could he be a closer where his arm is not used as much and also a DH and perhaps RF? What happens when he leads off the bottom of the 8th with a 1 run lead, rips a double, and then gets stranded at 3rd to end the inning? Not sure how he's getting ready to close out the game in time, and to make things worse, your setup man just threw 25 pitches, and your 3rd best reliever has gone back to back days. Having him as your closer seems to risky with too many non ideal scenarios that could pop up. Or he could get hit by lightning while standing on 3rd. Sorry, don't mean to be facetious but that's the type of situation that probably arises very rarely. However, you make a good point about how he warms up while playing (easier if he's the DH perhaps).
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