SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
What AAV Will Ohtani Get in the Free Agent Market?
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 7, 2023 15:17:50 GMT -5
Unfortunately that's usually not an option. If your wife/GF/parents/friends work or go to school, then you don't get the chance. They can still communicate in the mornings from the US when it's evening in Japan, but they can do that on either coast.This isn't just a baseball issue, the difference in time-zone is an issue for the millions of people who either have families across the Pacific or who work with those across the Pacific. Unfortunately due to the timing of baseball games it's slightly tougher for east coast players. Problem solved, then. This is not as a big an issue as you're making it out be. Senga is with the Mets, we have Masa, and had Dice-K and Koji, Yanks had Matsui. Ton of other east coast Japanese players. It's a non-issue.It is an issue for 'people' and I have first-hand experience working with East-Asia (including Japan) from both US coasts along with colleagues and friends with families across the Pacific (from both sides) and their stories. For baseball players the timing is tougher and the inability to speak to friends/family have been an issue in the past - I learned this from reading an article of a former Japanese player discussing this specific problem (although this was well over a decade ago and I admittedly don't remember the other details). If you have any knowledge to add which shows that Japanese players playing on the east coast vs west coast is not a concern, I'm sure we would all be happy to hear it. But listing 4 players and saying 'there are a ton of other east coast Japanese players' isn't much of an argument, especially for posts with such a needlessly dismissive tone. I'm still quite optimistic that the Red Sox can get Yoshi and it would be even better if they can get Shohei as well. Their experience with having so many Japanese players in the past, as well as having a current Japanese player, should help them.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 7, 2023 15:39:04 GMT -5
Problem solved, then. This is not as a big an issue as you're making it out be. Senga is with the Mets, we have Masa, and had Dice-K and Koji, Yanks had Matsui. Ton of other east coast Japanese players. It's a non-issue.It is an issue for 'people' and I have first-hand experience working with East-Asia (including Japan) from both US coasts along with colleagues and friends with families across the Pacific (from both sides) and their stories. For baseball players the timing is tougher and the inability to speak to friends/family have been an issue in the past - I learned this from reading an article of a former Japanese player discussing this specific problem (although this was well over a decade ago and I admittedly don't remember the other details). If you have any knowledge to add which shows that Japanese players playing on the east coast vs west coast is not a concern, I'm sure we would all be happy to hear it. But listing 4 players and saying 'there are a ton of other east coast Japanese players' isn't much of an argument, especially for posts with such a needlessly dismissive tone.I'm still quite optimistic that the Red Sox can get Yoshi and it would be even better if they can get Shohei as well. Their experience with having so many Japanese players in the past, as well as having a current Japanese player, should help them. Quick list of teams Japanese players have signed with:
NYM: 8 SEA: 6 LAD: 5 BOS: 5 NYY: 4
CLE: 3 CHC: 3 TEX: 3
MIL: 2 SDP: 2 CWS: 2 TBR: 2 ANA: 1 DET: 1 STL: 1 OAK: 1 PIT: 1 KCR: 1 BAL: 1 ATL: 1 MIN: 1 SFG: 1 ARZ: 1 CIN: 1 TOR: 1
By time zone, that's: Eastern: 28 Central: 12 Pacific: 17
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 7, 2023 15:41:09 GMT -5
So talk to your kids/wife post-game if you're on the east coast. I think they'd rather do that anyway. Focus on your pre-game prep, talk to family afterwards. Unfortunately that's usually not an option. If your wife/GF/parents/friends work or go to school, then you don't get the chance. They can still communicate in the mornings from the US when it's evening in Japan, but they can do that on either coast. This isn't just a baseball issue, the difference in time-zone is an issue for the millions of people who either have families across the Pacific or who work with those across the Pacific. Unfortunately due to the timing of baseball games it's slightly tougher for east coast players. But wouldn't they be getting ready for their day and traveling to work and school during that 7-9am window you mentioned? I think the larger point is the time difference makes it difficult to talk regularly with loved ones, but I think the difference between the eastern and pacific time zones come down to whether you or your loved ones go to bed late or early. I know I'd hate to have those type of "catch up" talks every morning just after waking up. For family/friends in Tokyo, they may prefer to talk around 9-10pm their time, which I believe is 8-9am here, and would be too early to reach Ohtani on the west coast (5-6am) after a night game.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Oct 7, 2023 16:56:40 GMT -5
By time zone, that's: Eastern: 28 Central: 12 Pacific: 17 I assume the point you are trying to make is that players are more willing to go east, but there's just more teams:
Teams by time zone: Eastern: 16 Central: 8 Pacific: 7 So 1.75 players per team in the East, 1.5 in the Central, and 2.4 in the Pacific. The main takeaway is that none of us really know what he's thinking. And the real answer about time zones is inconclusive. The data above would suggest a slight west coast bias, but the difference isn't huge. So I wouldn't be out there saying time zones don't matter, but I also would say they are only a part of the decision - location, playing opportunity, winning, and dollars all likely contribute.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 7, 2023 17:13:44 GMT -5
By time zone, that's: Eastern: 28 Central: 12 Pacific: 17 I assume the point you are trying to make is that players are more willing to go east, but there's just more teams:
Teams by time zone: Eastern: 16 Central: 8 Pacific: 7 So 1.75 players per team in the East, 1.5 in the Central, and 2.4 in the Pacific. The main takeaway is that none of us really know what he's thinking. And the real answer about time zones is inconclusive. The data above would suggest a slight west coast bias, but the difference isn't huge. So I wouldn't be out there saying time zones don't matter, but I also would say they are only a part of the decision - location, playing opportunity, winning, and dollars all likely contribute. I was just responding to a commenter who seemed unsatisfied by anecdotal evidence. If there is a point, it's just the null hypothesis that there's no reason to assume the Red Sox are at some sort of geographical disadvantage by being on the East Coast - especially considering that they've signed as many Japanese players as SF, OAK, ANA, and SD combined.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 9, 2023 9:54:37 GMT -5
I just remembered something about Ohtani's last in-person visit to Boston (at least with the Angels - maybe he flies in to hang out at Quincy Market on off days). He pitched on Patriots Day, so he had to be ready at 11 am (obviously 8 am in LA), and it was also one of the worst weather days you'll ever see for a baseball game that was actually played. It rained all night the night before and was cold, rainy, and drizzly all day. The game was delayed an hour before first pitch, then another long delay after Ohtani pitched only two innings (although he played the rest of the game as DH). I wonder if that's the first thing he thinks of when he hears the word "Boston."
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 9, 2023 16:27:03 GMT -5
I just remembered something about Ohtani's last in-person visit to Boston (at least with the Angels - maybe he flies in to hang out at Quincy Market on off days). He pitched on Patriots Day, so he had to be ready at 11 am (obviously 8 am in LA), and it was also one of the worst weather days you'll ever see for a baseball game that was actually played. It rained all night the night before and was cold, rainy, and drizzly all day. The game was delayed an hour before first pitch, then another long delay after Ohtani pitched only two innings (although he played the rest of the game as DH). I wonder if that's the first thing he thinks of when he hears the word "Boston." To extend his pitching career I’d only pitch him on Saturday nights. Doesn’t pitch after travel days. Can always go Sunday if rainout and still pitch following Saturday. I want him for 10 years. Not 2-3. Want him for big games. As we’ve seen the last few years, many favorites are losing early in playoffs. Get in healthy with big game studs. Ohtani and Yamamoto. Along with Bello. Live from Fenway Park. It’s Shohei Ohtani!!
|
|
|
Post by asm19 on Oct 13, 2023 7:05:03 GMT -5
Rosenthal makes the very valid point about Ohtani front runners LA Dodgers: “Their biggest need is starting pitching. Ohtani will not pitch next season while recovering from elbow surgery. Even if his only task initially is to replace J.D. Martinez at designated hitter, he will not dramatically improve a Dodgers offense that just scored 900 runs for the first time in 70 years.” Ohtani was a 6 WAR DH, compared to like 2 WAR by JD. But would more immediate need for starting pitching affect how they prioritize in free agency? theathletic.com/4959541/2023/10/13/dodgers-ohtani-offseason-needs/
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Oct 13, 2023 7:09:12 GMT -5
Rosenthal makes the very valid point about Ohtani front runners LA Dodgers: “Their biggest need is starting pitching. Ohtani will not pitch next season while recovering from elbow surgery. Even if his only task initially is to replace J.D. Martinez at designated hitter, he will not dramatically improve a Dodgers offense that just scored 900 runs for the first time in 70 years.” Ohtani was a 6 WAR DH, compared to like 2 WAR by JD. But would more immediate need for starting pitching affect how they prioritize in free agency? theathletic.com/4959541/2023/10/13/dodgers-ohtani-offseason-needs/This is where I've landed since seeing the dreadful performance that their SP put up in the NLDS. For the price of one Ohtani who is going to DH for 2024 they could probably get two viable SPs or close anyway. Never can count out the Dodgers but I don't really see them as a great landing spot for Ohtani for the reasons this blurb you posted point out. On the other hand maybe the Ohtani market isn't as hot as once believed, I just don't know how big of a contract a guy who is going to DH for 2024 and has serious questions on his ability to stay healthy as an SP. If you pay him the type of contract people were talking in July of 40-50M AAV and he can't pitch then you're left with a DH taking up 1/5 of the payroll it takes to get to the LT. Not exactly a winning formula to building a competitor. He could probably go play RF or something though if he can't pitch but that's still a question that remains to be seen.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 9, 2023 16:31:57 GMT -5
Ohtani is unlike any player we've seen in our lifetimes - a 28 year-old Top 10 pitcher last year (2.33 ERA/2.65 xFIP, 11.87 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR) and Top 15 hitter (.276/.355/.519 34HRs 31.8 Runs Above Average and 3.8 fWAR as almost exclusively a DH). According to Fangraphs, his combined fWAR was worth roughly $76M. Given that in the context of the current free agency market and his desire to be on a winning team, what do you think his AAV will be in his free agent deal? I'm glad to start with my back-of-the-envelope calculation (and I'm assuming no injury this year) and we can look at the actuals this winter to get a reality check for our estimations: $62MWelp - even with the elbow injury, I was light. Go figure.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2023 16:32:44 GMT -5
Ohtani is unlike any player we've seen in our lifetimes - a 28 year-old Top 10 pitcher last year (2.33 ERA/2.65 xFIP, 11.87 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR) and Top 15 hitter (.276/.355/.519 34HRs 31.8 Runs Above Average and 3.8 fWAR as almost exclusively a DH). According to Fangraphs, his combined fWAR was worth roughly $76M. Given that in the context of the current free agency market and his desire to be on a winning team, what do you think his AAV will be in his free agent deal? I'm glad to start with my back-of-the-envelope calculation (and I'm assuming no injury this year) and we can look at the actuals this winter to get a reality check for our estimations: $62MWelp - even with the elbow injury, I was light. Go figure. We don’t actually know this yet
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 9, 2023 16:33:59 GMT -5
Welp - even with the elbow injury, I was light. Go figure. We don’t actually know this yet "He is set to sign a contract worth $700 million over the next 10 years that will make him one of the highest-paid athletes in pro sports history." Front page of The Wall Street Journal. Article by Lindsey Adler. Oops - I missed the smoke and mirrors paragraph: The majority of the salary will be deferred to lessen the luxury tax burden on the Dodgers, according to a person familiar with Ohtani’s contract structure. It is unclear if there are incentives or benchmarks included for reaching certain pitching or hitting milestones throughout the course of the contract.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2023 16:35:56 GMT -5
We don’t actually know this yet "He is set to sign a contract worth $700 million over the next 10 years that will make him one of the highest-paid athletes in pro sports history." Front page of The Wall Street Journal. Article by Lindsey Adler. Oops - I missed the smoke and mirrors paragraph: The majority of the salary will be deferred to lessen the luxury tax burden on the Dodgers, according to a person familiar with Ohtani’s contract structure. It is unclear if there are incentives or benchmarks included for reaching certain pitching or hitting milestones throughout the course of the contract.More than half the salary is deferred, his CBT AAV will be far less than $70m
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 9, 2023 16:39:40 GMT -5
"He is set to sign a contract worth $700 million over the next 10 years that will make him one of the highest-paid athletes in pro sports history." Front page of The Wall Street Journal. Article by Lindsey Adler. Oops - I missed the smoke and mirrors paragraph: The majority of the salary will be deferred to lessen the luxury tax burden on the Dodgers, according to a person familiar with Ohtani’s contract structure. It is unclear if there are incentives or benchmarks included for reaching certain pitching or hitting milestones throughout the course of the contract.More than half the salary is deferred, his CBT AAV will be far less than $70m Meanwhile:
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 9, 2023 16:47:24 GMT -5
It’s $70m AAV. The taxes and deferrals don’t mean otherwise. He’ll play ten years for them and the team will pay him $700m. You can entertain yourself by trying to calculate what a dollar in 2040 will be worth in 2023 or 2034 dollars but any long term contract has similar diminishing returns even without deferrals. If you want to go by the CBT value, maybe start a “What does Ohtani’s contract count against the CBT?” thread.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2023 16:52:46 GMT -5
It’s $70m AAV. The taxes and deferrals don’t mean otherwise. He’ll play ten years for them and the team will pay him $700m. You can entertain yourself by trying to calculate what a dollar in 2040 will be worth in 2023 or 2034 dollars but any long term contract has similar diminishing returns even without deferrals. If you want to go by the CBT value, maybe start a “What does Ohtani’s contract count against the CBT?” thread. They won’t pay him 700 million in those ten years, and generally when we talk about contract value AAV for luxury tax purposes is what matters the most because that is what affects team building.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Dec 9, 2023 16:54:17 GMT -5
I mean, "AAV" is literally a term of art for luxury tax calculations
|
|
|
Post by pawtucketwalt on Dec 9, 2023 17:46:11 GMT -5
Where do the tax payment overage go to?
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 9, 2023 18:35:15 GMT -5
It’s $70m AAV. The taxes and deferrals don’t mean otherwise. He’ll play ten years for them and the team will pay him $700m. You can entertain yourself by trying to calculate what a dollar in 2040 will be worth in 2023 or 2034 dollars but any long term contract has similar diminishing returns even without deferrals. If you want to go by the CBT value, maybe start a “What does Ohtani’s contract count against the CBT?” thread. They won’t pay him 700 million in those ten years, and generally when we talk about contract value AAV for luxury tax purposes is what matters the most because that is what affects team building. LAD will write checks worth real money totaling $700m. Ohtani won’t receive $700m obviously after taxes but according to the reports, LAD will pay $700m for ten years of service. If Shohei has a good investment advisor, he can net much more than that $700m over those ten years. And obviously the deferrals will change the CBT value. But the bottom line is that when future stars sign mammoth contracts, their AAVs will be compared to Ohtani’s $70m, not whatever the CBT ends up being.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2023 19:05:52 GMT -5
They won’t pay him 700 million in those ten years, and generally when we talk about contract value AAV for luxury tax purposes is what matters the most because that is what affects team building. LAD will write checks worth real money totaling $700m. Ohtani won’t receive $700m obviously after taxes but according to the reports, LAD will pay $700m for ten years of service. If Shohei has a good investment advisor, he can net much more than that $700m over those ten years. And obviously the deferrals will change the CBT value. But the bottom line is that when future stars sign mammoth contracts, their AAVs will be compared to Ohtani’s $70m, not whatever the CBT ends up being. No sorry I disagree. His AAV is not 70m. They’re paying him over a period of longer than 10 years.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Dec 9, 2023 23:17:45 GMT -5
You know what would be funny. If the Dodgers signing Ohtani if there was confusion. Like there 2 point men on the F.O. discussing contracts they were just bidding against themselves the whole time. Ran it up an extra 100 million.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 10, 2023 9:20:54 GMT -5
Where do the tax payment overage go to? I believe it goes into the cheap billionaire slush fund, AKA "The Competitive Balance Tax." Unless you're talking about the federal and state taxes. Those goes into different slush funds
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 10, 2023 9:39:09 GMT -5
More than half the salary is deferred, his CBT AAV will be far less than $70m Meanwhile: ….you forgot a few….. Highest gas tax in the USA Stats and local sales tax average - 8.85% Among the highest property taxes $ paid in USA Lol, lowest tax in the USA ….wait for it…..on alcohol ….what, so people are too drunk to care that over half their income is going to state and federal taxes. I am a temporary Californian from the Midwest which will soon be in the Pacific Northwest….can’t wait to move.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,666
|
Post by gerry on Dec 10, 2023 11:42:01 GMT -5
I heard, decades ago, the joke that half the people in the world want to move to the USA; and half the people in America want to move to California. Well, it seems they did and CA has gotten pretty crowded despite it being bigger than New England and most other regions of the country. All true.
Just saying that It also has, for now, 5 MLB teams, with players like Ohtani, Betts, Bogaerts and Kelly who apparently enjoy soCal’s beaches, mountains, deserts, forests, multi-cultural lifestyle and cuisine, wineries, year round marinas, medical centers and university towns. Taxes really are high. But “taxachussetts” folks need not be jealous.
And there is the weather which, in mid-December, allows me to still harvest Tomatoes, Peppers, Spinach and other veggies, herbs, oranges and lemons from my backyard. Plus, I get to see the Sox play in LA, Anaheim and San Diego after an easy drive. I miss Fenway and New England most of the year but am happy with CA. It has its benefits.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 10, 2023 12:57:31 GMT -5
I heard, decades ago, the joke that half the people in the world want to move to the USA; and half the people in America want to move to California. Well, it seems they did and CA has gotten pretty crowded despite it being bigger than New England and most other regions of the country. All true. Just saying that It also has, for now, 5 MLB teams, with players like Ohtani, Betts, Bogaerts and Kelly who apparently enjoy soCal’s beaches, mountains, deserts, forests, multi-cultural lifestyle and cuisine, wineries, year round marinas, medical centers and university towns. Taxes really are high. But “taxachussetts” folks need not be jealous. And there is the weather which, in mid-December, allows me to still harvest Tomatoes, Peppers, Spinach and other veggies, herbs, oranges and lemons from my backyard. Plus, I get to see the Sox play in LA, Anaheim and San Diego after an easy drive. I miss Fenway and New England most of the year but am happy with CA. It has its benefits. All you say is true! It is also true 280,000 people were injured in auto accidents, and 4000 died. It takes 2 hours to go 50 miles, and it is crowded everywhere I go (and I live in Carlsbad - just north of SD). LA and Orange County traffic is way worse. I like mountains and solitude, and only moved here because of my wife’s parents. CA has its pluses, but they are not high on my list. I am sure Ohtani, Betts, Bogaerts, and Kelly enjoy playing baseball in the weather here more than Boston, but that is not the end all. The net outflow of 800,000 the last 2 years shows plenty agree.
|
|
|