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4/24-4/26 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by ramireja on Apr 24, 2023 9:15:37 GMT -5
4/24 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale, 1-1, 8.00, 18.0 IP, 30K:9BB) @ Orioles (RHP Dean Kremer, 1-0, 6.16, 19.0 IP, 14K:6BB) 6:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 4/25 Red Sox (RHP Corey Kluber, 0-4, 8.50, 18.0 IP, 17K:8BB) @ Orioles (RHP Kyle Bradish, 1-0, 0.00, 7.2 IP, 8K:2BB) 6:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 4/26 Red Sox (TBD) @ Orioles (RHP Tyler Wells, 0-1, 2.70, 23.1 IP, 16K:2BB) 1:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 24, 2023 9:39:40 GMT -5
Interesting that 5 of the 6 best W/L records in the American League are all in the AL East! Since the wild cards are league wide I am glad the schedules are a little more balance than they used to be. I live in an NL town, so I am glad of this as the Red Sox come every other year instead of once every 6 years, but mainly because it is more fair for wildcard spots.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2023 10:36:04 GMT -5
Have to say, it's a little annoying that every single other AL East team is off to a good start. The Yankees and Blue Jays are on pace for 96 wins. The Orioles, 108. The Rays, I dunno like 190. The Red Sox are off to a very respectable start and fangraphs playoffs odds have them 11th in the AL.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 24, 2023 11:15:34 GMT -5
Have to say, it's a little annoying that every single other AL East team is off to a good start. The Yankees and Blue Jays are on pace for 96 wins. The Orioles, 108. The Rays, I dunno like 190. The Red Sox are off to a very respectable start and fangraphs playoffs odds have them 11th in the AL. The fangraphs model is regressive, almost religiously so, to the mean. That said, they sure did peg NYY's total last year at the all star break when everyone else had them winning between 105-110 games because of their torrid first half.
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Post by huskies15 on Apr 24, 2023 11:26:57 GMT -5
Hope Sale can keep the momentum going tonight. Kluber I'm less optimistic about...
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Post by rhswanzey on Apr 24, 2023 11:40:43 GMT -5
I am having a hard time wrapping my head around playing .667 ball and being 4.5 games out of first. In April.
Sox 7-3 in their last ten, taking series from three teams that have all had some time in first place. The offense is a total P.I.T.A. to pitch to. There’s more pitching on hand than at any time since 2018. You know the drill: feel pretty good about things, and be prepared to throw ten or twenty players and personnel under the bus whenever they drop their first game of this series.
I think everyone is very aware of the divisional game struggles last year. Another way of slicing up that season is a .550 team that had a 3-12 skid in late April (.500ish —> 10-19 hole), and then the disastrous 3-13 skid against divisional opponents around the ASG and trade deadline run up. Treading water right around .500 is not a bad thing, even in this loaded division. No death spiral two week stretches, please, and we’re good. Fourth place teams can be in the playoffs now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 24, 2023 12:07:44 GMT -5
I am having a hard time wrapping my head around playing .667 ball and being 4.5 games out of first. In April. Sox 7-3 in their last ten, taking series from three teams that have all had some time in first place. The offense is a total P.I.T.A. to pitch to. There’s more pitching on hand than at any time since 2018. You know the drill: feel pretty good about things, and be prepared to throw ten or twenty players and personnel under the bus whenever they drop their first game of this series. I think everyone is very aware of the divisional game struggles last year. Another way of slicing up that season is a .550 team that had a 3-12 skid in late April (.500ish —> 10-19 hole), and then the disastrous 3-13 skid against divisional opponents around the ASG and trade deadline run up. Treading water right around .500 is not a bad thing, even in this loaded division. No death spiral two week stretches, please, and we’re good. Fourth place teams can be in the playoffs now. Yup, the trick is for them to hold their own against their division. Play .500 against their division and they will make the playoffs. Get obliterated again and they wont no matter how good they are elsewhere. Where they fall between getting obliterated in their division to holding their own will determine if they make it as they have to avoid the basement. The other four teams are just as capable of beating up the outside competition as the Red Sox are. So even with the reduced inter division schedule, I still think it'll come down to those games. I figured originally the Orioles would drop below the Sox and below. 500 but now I'm not so sure. They're playing better than I thought they would. Meanwhile somehow someway the Yankees stay afloat, Toronto has the best talent on paper, and Tampa is playing out of their minds. The Sox have to hold their own on their division to survive.
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Post by manfred on Apr 24, 2023 12:23:57 GMT -5
O’s are off the a hot start, and they have good young talent, but I don’t see them having the pitching to keep ahead of the Sox all year. So the Sox need to pluck some wins early from them, then aim to pass one more East team to be sure WC team. My pick is the Yankees… not just cause I hate them, but because they seem most likely to free fall if a key player or two gets hurt or struggles.
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Post by rhswanzey on Apr 24, 2023 12:47:53 GMT -5
ESPN has the Red Sox as leading the majors on strength of schedule by more than .030 wpct. At .583, the Sox are way ahead of the entire AL East - only NYY (.506) and TOR (.502) are above .500.
We can’t throw out opponents’ wins that are already in the books, but it may be further illustrative of how it’s okay to tread water but not dominate divisional opponents, as long as we take care of business against the teams we should be wrecking. We have more of those games left than anyone - teams like Tampa and Baltimore already have some of their Oakland games behind them.
One last note on that: a huge difference between 2018 and 2019 was that the team no longer dominated against the scrubs. You can run up 108 wins when going 31-7 (!) against the two bottom feeders in your division. They played a still dominant .621 if leaving BAL and TOR games out, but that’s nearly .050 off of their full season wpct. So if the 2023 team is starting out as a .567 team, not a .667 team, and they don’t take care of business against junk teams, they’re a .500 team that misses. Conversely, if they’re a .500 team against tough opponents that runs up 10-3 against DET, 11-2 against OAK, etc., they can sneak in.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2023 12:51:53 GMT -5
Winning a 2nd series against them would be huge
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 24, 2023 13:24:20 GMT -5
The difficult thing right now is that practically there may only be 2 wild card spots up for grabs. The AL Central has 3 of the 4 bad teams in the American League and as of right now there are only 4 bad teams. That could shake out a little, but it's a significant advantage for the Twins/Guardians even with the new schedule. The Sox may have to finish 2nd in the division. Certainly possible and I'm optimistic that it will happen, but I think they're really going to have to take care of business within the division and I don't think .500 is going to cut it. If we had gone .500 in the division last year with the unbalanced schedule, we would have won 90 games and easily made the playoffs. I think there is almost zero chance the AL East only gets one WC spot. If I were a betting man, I'd guess all three will be from the East.
I think only about half of the teams in the AL are good and 5 of them are in the East. Houston is 6, and I could see a couple of the mid-tier teams in the Minnesota/Cleveland/LAA/Texas/Seattle clump turning out to be decent.
Last year only two teams in the AL Central and AL West had a winning record against the AL East: Houston went 17-15 and Minnesota went 18-16. Meanwhile, 3 of 5 AL East teams had a winning record against the Central (TB 15-17, BAL 16-17) and every AL East team had a winning record against the West. I think the AL East is even stronger this year; especially with the more balanced schedule, the only team I expect to win fewer games is NYY.
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Post by greenmonster on Apr 24, 2023 13:26:49 GMT -5
ESPN has the Red Sox as leading the majors on strength of schedule by more than .030 wpct. At .583, the Sox are way ahead of the entire AL East - only NYY (.506) and TOR (.502) are above .500. We can’t throw out opponents’ wins that are already in the books, but it may be further illustrative of how it’s okay to tread water but not dominate divisional opponents, as long as we take care of business against the teams we should be wrecking. We have more of those games left than anyone - teams like Tampa and Baltimore already have some of their Oakland games behind them. One last note on that: a huge difference between 2018 and 2019 was that the team no longer dominated against the scrubs. You can run up 108 wins when going 31-7 (!) against the two bottom feeders in your division. They played a still dominant .621 if leaving BAL and TOR games out, but that’s nearly .050 off of their full season wpct. So if the 2023 team is starting out as a .567 team, not a .667 team, and they don’t take care of business against junk teams, they’re a .500 team that misses. Conversely, if they’re a .500 team against tough opponents that runs up 10-3 against DET, 11-2 against OAK, etc., they can sneak in. So honest question, how does a team like the Pirates figure into that calculation? Do they strengthen the Sox schedule given their 16-7 record or are they a team that the Sox should be beating given pre-season predictions??
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 24, 2023 13:54:30 GMT -5
Bello optioned to Worcester and Bernardino recalled.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 24, 2023 14:00:31 GMT -5
O’s are off the a hot start, and they have good young talent, but I don’t see them having the pitching to keep ahead of the Sox all year. So the Sox need to pluck some wins early from them, then aim to pass one more East team to be sure WC team. My pick is the Yankees… not just cause I hate them, but because they seem most likely to free fall if a key player or two gets hurt or struggles. Agreed, the MFY are ALWAYS overrated by the media. I kept saying last year that they were nowhere near as good as their record in the first half and would struggle as they did. I agree with you Manfred! They have a lot of older players who I see as injury risks, and very catchable. I actually would be fine with MFY 0-162 every year, lol.
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Post by manfred on Apr 24, 2023 14:00:36 GMT -5
Bello optioned to Worcester and Bernardino recalled. Is that just short term roster movement, or are they sending him down to work in stuff?
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Post by briam on Apr 24, 2023 14:01:43 GMT -5
Bello optioned to Worcester and Bernardino recalled. I get it because the bullpen is short but I hate not having the best 5 starters in the rotation.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 24, 2023 14:02:08 GMT -5
Bello getting the 2021 Houck treatment
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2023 14:16:21 GMT -5
It should be obvious to posters how the well thought out depth is playing out. When your toughest question is which talent that's performing you have to shelve, you've done something right. A Tapia DFA to accommodate Duran when Duvall comes off the IL seems painless.
But accommodating Mondesi, let alone Mondesi and Story, is going to be tricky. You might eventually trade Arroyo, but you don't want to shed Arroyo until Mondesi is proven healthy and valuable.
On the pitching side, they have 15 guys who are either out of options or are too good to option (including Crawford). At some point there may well be a demote Crawford / trade Brasier dilemma.
The latter choice is much easier if you have a bunch of guys who are credible up-and-down options. Between Walter, Murphy, and Bernadino you hope to be able to render Joely Rodriguez surplus. The difference between Brasier and Ort / Kelly / Mills doesn't seem worth sweating over, but right now only one of the alternatives is healthy (Ort seems likely to go down when Paxton is ready).
In the long run you might up with the current roster with Paxton and Martin for Ort and Brasier, in the unlikely event that everyone is healthy, and Mata and the three righties and three lefties as the guys who fill in for guys on the IL.
That staff would have as many as three long relievers (e.g., Pivetta, Kluber, Crawford) depending on health of the other starters. If there's a 3-run lead or deficit after 5 or 6, you'd just bring in the freshest of that group to go the rest of the way or until things get tight again. You'd also use a 6th stater (the best of the surplus guys) once or twice whenever the schedule goes weeks without an off day.
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Post by seamus on Apr 24, 2023 14:16:22 GMT -5
Bello optioned to Worcester and Bernardino recalled. Is that just short term roster movement, or are they sending him down to work in stuff? I would suspect it's mostly short-term roster movement. With it looking like a 6-man rotation, he probably wouldn't go again until next Sunday, so why not add another bullpen arm? Though I could see him taking a turn down in Worcester to tune-up and then coming back up by maybe the Philadelphia series.
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Post by wildsox on Apr 24, 2023 14:20:58 GMT -5
This looks like a short term move with our bullpen being taxed. I'm fine with it. But is Bernardino really our next best option in the pen? He's just a lottery ticket and can't be counted on
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 24, 2023 14:21:45 GMT -5
Bello optioned to Worcester and Bernardino recalled. This make sense to me in the short run. Let Bello get into the rhythm and deeper in games, keep Houck in the rotation, and add a LH reliever to the bullpen. Houck has probably been the most consistent starter so far 2023.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 24, 2023 14:30:59 GMT -5
Verdugo RF Devers 3B Turner DH Yoshida LF Hernández 2B Casas 1B Duran CF Wong C Chang SS
I'm at the point where I think they should flip Casas and Duran. Casas may hit, but he's been walking at a good clip and clogs the bases, whereas Duran on base makes pitchers and catchers nervous and could actually help Casas. That or, if Duran is still hot in two weeks, bat him leadoff, Verdugo in the 2 and the rest keep their places in the conga line. Let Duran wreak havoc on the bases and get the pitchers off to bad starts. It can only benefit everyone else.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2023 14:40:28 GMT -5
Bello optioned to Worcester and Bernardino recalled. I get it because the bullpen is short but I hate not having the best 5 starters in the rotation. So Kluber gets two more starts, tomorrow plus the first game of the Jays series.
Bello would be lined up with Pivetta but the latter would also get two starts (game 1 Guardians, game 3 Jays) before Bello could get another crack at the rotation.
And, yeah, let's hope that the potential downgrade from the two starts that Bello has in Worcester instead of MLB doesn't cost them ... but there's also an argument that he gets to where we know he can be quicker this way, and that you end up with at least a wash even if Kluber and/or Pivetta pitch poorly against the Jays. But it's hard to be happy seeing the likely eventual 6 and 7 starters
both going in the first series against the divisional rival that projects to be closest to us in the standings.
Edit: I'm forgetting that pitchers have to wait 15 days before recall. Let's hope that some unimportant pitcher is nursing a tiny injury that will allow Bello to be recalled after just a single, terrific start for Woo.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 24, 2023 14:50:39 GMT -5
70 more days in the minors to screw Bello out of a year. He should be safe unless he pitches really bad.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2023 14:52:59 GMT -5
Verdugo RF Devers 3B Turner DH Yoshida LF Hernández 2B Casas 1B Duran CF Wong C Chang SS I'm at the point where I think they should flip Casas and Duran. Casas may hit, but he's been walking at a good clip and clogs the bases, whereas Duran on base makes pitchers and catchers nervous and could actually help Casas. That or, if Duran is still hot in two weeks, bat him leadoff, Verdugo in the 2 and the rest keep their places in the conga line. Let Duran wreak havoc on the bases and get the pitchers off to bad starts. It can only benefit everyone else. This is backwards. Casas cannot be the last bat with power in the lineup, else his walks go wasted too often.
Put another way, given a guy who gets on base by walking and a guy who gets on base by hitting doubles, who hits first?
Meanwhile, "clogging the bases" is almost not a thing.
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