SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
5/19-5/21 Red Sox @ Padres Series Thread
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 19, 2023 13:20:59 GMT -5
David Price's deal was about a 15 win mistake. Trevor Story could blow out his elbow every offseason for the rest of his contract and he won't be a 15 win mistake. This is where the analytics meets the real world, though. On the one hand, it’s easy to hate the Price deal because it(theoretically) cost them Mookie(we won’t get into the Price deal being necessitated due to lowballing Lester). On the other hand, how many of those “15 wins” were offset by his contributions during the 2018 playoffs? He was amazing in the ALCS and WS that year. Do they win without him? Will Story ever make a similar postseason impact? This is not as easy as “WAR says….” It’s more nuanced than that. Also, didn’t the Dodgers pay a big chunk of his contract after the trade? Weren’t the Sox off the hook in 2020 when Price didn’t pitch at all? This logic has no limiting principle. If they signed him for 35 years, $3.1 billion you could say the same thing.
And "amazing" is real generous.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 19, 2023 13:22:09 GMT -5
Story has already accumulated 2.4 WAR in 1+ season with 4+ seasons to go. Sale has accumulated 1.9 WAR in 3+ seasons with 1+ seasons to go.
Story was nearly worth his contract last season, and it's not impossible (though unlikely) he could be worth it this season. So far his contract doesn't look nearly as bad as Sale's.
Though Sale is likely their best starter this year. I don’t get why we don’t factor in how much being hurt damages the team. How is our SS play this year? That is because the money they have sunk in their SS is on the IL, so the patchwork they have waiting is a bust. This is almost exactly what WAR does: it provides a value against the hypothetical alternative in which a replacement player would take their place. As in the case of injury, for instance, when you need guys like Yu Chang and Pablo Reyes to cover for your absence.
In the event, Story had the courtesy to get injured in the off-season so that the team had time to respond by adding Duvall and Mondesi, so in that sense he hurt the team less than he otherwise would have.
But then both those guys illustrate the weirdness of trying to factor in an additional injury penalty to a player's value, like you're implying they ought to: should Mondesi absorb all the negative value of his replacement, and thus let Story off the hook? Should Duvall be credited because his injury allowed Duran to come up and rake?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 19, 2023 13:38:13 GMT -5
David Price had a few really good starts in the 2018 playoffs, but the totality of his performance is probably not as good as you remember: 26.0 IP (five starts, one relief appearance), 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 23/12 BB/K, 4.78 FIP, 4.87 xFIP.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on May 19, 2023 13:49:31 GMT -5
Though Sale is likely their best starter this year. I don’t get why we don’t factor in how much being hurt damages the team. How is our SS play this year? That is because the money they have sunk in their SS is on the IL, so the patchwork they have waiting is a bust. This is almost exactly what WAR does: it provides a value against the hypothetical alternative in which a replacement player would take their place. As in the case of injury, for instance, when you need guys like Yu Chang and Pablo Reyes to cover for your absence.
In the event, Story had the courtesy to get injured in the off-season so that the team had time to respond by adding Duvall and Mondesi, so in that sense he hurt the team less than he otherwise would have.
But then both those guys illustrate the weirdness of trying to factor in an additional injury penalty to a player's value, like you're implying they ought to: should Mondesi absorb all the negative value of his replacement, and thus let Story off the hook? Should Duvall be credited because his injury allowed Duran to come up and rake?
I’m not talking statistics. But I hate the “he accumulated enough WAR to be worth it argument.” Guys who are counted on who sit *hurt* the team. It is not neutral that Story is out… it is detrimental. It is tens of millions of dead dollars. It is getting stopgaps at a key position because you’ve got an investment you are waiting on. That is all very bad. I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on May 19, 2023 14:05:00 GMT -5
Can we please avoid re-hashing the Mookie trade and failed Xander re-signing? Please and thank you...
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 19, 2023 14:08:08 GMT -5
This is almost exactly what WAR does: it provides a value against the hypothetical alternative in which a replacement player would take their place. As in the case of injury, for instance, when you need guys like Yu Chang and Pablo Reyes to cover for your absence.
In the event, Story had the courtesy to get injured in the off-season so that the team had time to respond by adding Duvall and Mondesi, so in that sense he hurt the team less than he otherwise would have.
But then both those guys illustrate the weirdness of trying to factor in an additional injury penalty to a player's value, like you're implying they ought to: should Mondesi absorb all the negative value of his replacement, and thus let Story off the hook? Should Duvall be credited because his injury allowed Duran to come up and rake?
I’m not talking statistics. But I hate the “he accumulated enough WAR to be worth it argument.” Guys who are counted on who sit *hurt* the team. It is not neutral that Story is out… it is detrimental. It is tens of millions of dead dollars. It is getting stopgaps at a key position because you’ve got an investment you are waiting on. That is all very bad. I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is. I don't understand your argument. You're complaining that WAR calculations don't account for the detrimental effect of a guy being injured. But WAR fully accounts for the guy not playing at all - he is accumulating zero WAR! If Story misses the whole season, his contract, for this season, will look really bad!
It's like you think that WAR somehow makes Story being injured look better, but I promise you, Story's 2023 WAR total is very poor so far!
"I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is." So if instead of saying "Story has accumulated 0 WAR this season," I said "Story's absence has been really bad this season," would that address your complaint because it's a less precise statement?
|
|
|
Post by manfred on May 19, 2023 14:20:18 GMT -5
I’m not talking statistics. But I hate the “he accumulated enough WAR to be worth it argument.” Guys who are counted on who sit *hurt* the team. It is not neutral that Story is out… it is detrimental. It is tens of millions of dead dollars. It is getting stopgaps at a key position because you’ve got an investment you are waiting on. That is all very bad. I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is. I don't understand your argument. You're complaining that WAR calculations don't account for the detrimental effect of a guy being injured. But WAR fully accounts for the guy not playing at all - he is accumulating zero WAR! If Story misses the whole season, his contract, for this season, will look really bad!
It's like you think that WAR somehow makes Story being injured look better, but I promise you, Story's 2023 WAR total is very poor so far!
"I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is." So if instead of saying "Story has accumulated 0 WAR this season," I said "Story's absence has been really bad this season," would that address your complaint because it's a less precise statement?
This was about contracts. You (or someone) said his brief time last year was almost worth his contract. I’m indeed saying being out the rest of the season ought to count not just as 0 WAR but *worse*, because it means the team must scramble. Put differently: Kiké has been *bad* at SS. That is a result of not having Story. I am not calling for some formula to share negative WAR. I’m arguing that saying “hey, Story was 2.5 bWAR last year on $20 million” or “he is 0 WAR on $20 mill so far this year” does not adequately show the weakness to date of the contract. Put differently again: there are opportunity costs ($40 million in 2 years for a part time guy is a hit). There is the cost of replacement. etc.
|
|
|
Post by crossedsabres8 on May 19, 2023 14:47:54 GMT -5
I don't understand your argument. You're complaining that WAR calculations don't account for the detrimental effect of a guy being injured. But WAR fully accounts for the guy not playing at all - he is accumulating zero WAR! If Story misses the whole season, his contract, for this season, will look really bad!
It's like you think that WAR somehow makes Story being injured look better, but I promise you, Story's 2023 WAR total is very poor so far!
"I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is." So if instead of saying "Story has accumulated 0 WAR this season," I said "Story's absence has been really bad this season," would that address your complaint because it's a less precise statement?
This was about contracts. You (or someone) said his brief time last year was almost worth his contract. I’m indeed saying being out the rest of the season ought to count not just as 0 WAR but *worse*, because it means the team must scramble. Put differently: Kiké has been *bad* at SS. That is a result of not having Story. I am not calling for some formula to share negative WAR. I’m arguing that saying “hey, Story was 2.5 bWAR last year on $20 million” or “he is 0 WAR on $20 mill so far this year” does not adequately show the weakness to date of the contract. Put differently again: there are opportunity costs ($40 million in 2 years for a part time guy is a hit). There is the cost of replacement. etc. Are you saying it's better to be mediocre the entire season than be good for half of it and injured the rest? Not necessary with Story specifically but in general? Also in the specific case of Story last year, he broke his hand by getting hit with a pitch, that's kind of a occupational hazard and I wouldn't say that is relevant in discussing if a contract is good or not. Now the elbow issue this year is absolutely relevant.
|
|
|
Post by yuchangclan on May 19, 2023 14:52:16 GMT -5
This is where the analytics meets the real world, though. On the one hand, it’s easy to hate the Price deal because it(theoretically) cost them Mookie(we won’t get into the Price deal being necessitated due to lowballing Lester). On the other hand, how many of those “15 wins” were offset by his contributions during the 2018 playoffs? He was amazing in the ALCS and WS that year. Do they win without him? Will Story ever make a similar postseason impact? This is not as easy as “WAR says….” It’s more nuanced than that. Also, didn’t the Dodgers pay a big chunk of his contract after the trade? Weren’t the Sox off the hook in 2020 when Price didn’t pitch at all? This logic has no limiting principle. If they signed him for 35 years, $3.1 billion you could say the same thing.
And "amazing" is real generous.
Standard condescension of your post aside, I’d like to posit that perhaps it is WAR, itself, that is the limiting principle. WAR assigns exactly zero value for performance in the games that matter the most. For example, WAR will tell us that Steve Pearce was worth approximately 1 WAR for the 2018 Red Sox. Does this really encapsulate his value to that team? Can you simply say that 1 WAR is equal to X dollars and the case is closed? The same goes for David Ortiz’s playoff performances adding zero to his “value”. I just think that kind of calculation is heavily flawed. Price was a big part of the 2018 Championship run. We can debate just how big that contribution was, but I know you won’t say it was worthless.
|
|
|
Post by bosox904 on May 19, 2023 15:19:40 GMT -5
This is where the analytics meets the real world, though. On the one hand, it’s easy to hate the Price deal because it(theoretically) cost them Mookie(we won’t get into the Price deal being necessitated due to lowballing Lester). On the other hand, how many of those “15 wins” were offset by his contributions during the 2018 playoffs? He was amazing in the ALCS and WS that year. Do they win without him? Will Story ever make a similar postseason impact? This is not as easy as “WAR says….” It’s more nuanced than that. Also, didn’t the Dodgers pay a big chunk of his contract after the trade? Weren’t the Sox off the hook in 2020 when Price didn’t pitch at all? Whatever amount of Price's salary the Dodgers paid, the return in the Mookie trade was smaller by that amount.
And for that same reason, the Dodgers were off the hook in 2020 for Price, but the Red Sox had already paid the price for half of his salary that season by lowering the return in the Mookie trade.
We need a front office that can predict worldwide pandemics.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 19, 2023 15:21:31 GMT -5
I don't understand your argument. You're complaining that WAR calculations don't account for the detrimental effect of a guy being injured. But WAR fully accounts for the guy not playing at all - he is accumulating zero WAR! If Story misses the whole season, his contract, for this season, will look really bad!
It's like you think that WAR somehow makes Story being injured look better, but I promise you, Story's 2023 WAR total is very poor so far!
"I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is." So if instead of saying "Story has accumulated 0 WAR this season," I said "Story's absence has been really bad this season," would that address your complaint because it's a less precise statement?
This was about contracts. You (or someone) said his brief time last year was almost worth his contract. I’m indeed saying being out the rest of the season ought to count not just as 0 WAR but *worse*, because it means the team must scramble. Put differently: Kiké has been *bad* at SS. That is a result of not having Story. I am not calling for some formula to share negative WAR. I’m arguing that saying “hey, Story was 2.5 bWAR last year on $20 million” or “he is 0 WAR on $20 mill so far this year” does not adequately show the weakness to date of the contract. Put differently again: there are opportunity costs ($40 million in 2 years for a part time guy is a hit). There is the cost of replacement. etc. In the interest of finding common ground, here are some cases where I would say WAR doesn't paint a complete picture:
- Arroyo last year had only 0.3 WAR. But it would have been over 1 if they hadn't tried to play him in RF where his defense was unplayably bad. His topline WAR number underestimates his value because the team didn't use him properly.
- Brock Holt, by contrast, could play all over the field, which meant that he could help the team in any given game precisely where they needed help the most. His WAR was also an underestimate of his value, in this case because the team did use him properly.
- Xander Bogaerts signed with San Diego to play shortstop, even though they were already deep at the position; at the very least they had Kim who's like a 3 WAR player. His WAR total for them will overestimate his value to the team because they had decent options already.
But "Story has been worth 0 WAR" just seems like almost the paradigmatic use of WAR: instead of him they're "scrambling" with a melange of replacement-level options. That's really bad for a $23 million investment! And even worse because he should be in the surplus value portion of his contract right now. But I don't really see why it's worse than the big old goose egg WAR gives you.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on May 19, 2023 16:02:31 GMT -5
Can we please avoid re-hashing the Mookie trade and failed Xander re-signing? Please and thank you... Wait, isn't "re-hashing the Mookie trade" what SoxProspects.com really means when we use our secret decoder rings!?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on May 19, 2023 16:08:24 GMT -5
Whatever amount of Price's salary the Dodgers paid, the return in the Mookie trade was smaller by that amount. And for that same reason, the Dodgers were off the hook in 2020 for Price, but the Red Sox had already paid the price for half of his salary that season by lowering the return in the Mookie trade.
We need a front office that can predict worldwide pandemics. I'd settle for Carrington Events.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on May 19, 2023 17:37:34 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 19, 2023 17:59:30 GMT -5
They put Machado on the IL
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,408
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 19, 2023 18:40:46 GMT -5
Well jeez if that's the type of guy Xander is gonna be did we ever really want him!!! I kid obviously.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on May 19, 2023 18:53:34 GMT -5
1. Verdugo RF
2. Turner 1B
3. Refsnyder LF
4. Devers 3B
5. Yoshida DH
6. Hernández SS
7. Reyes 2B
8. Duran CF
9. Wong C
|
|
|
Post by oldfaithful2019 on May 19, 2023 19:01:44 GMT -5
1. Verdugo RF 2. Turner 1B 3. Refsnyder LF 4. Devers 3B 5. Yoshida DH 6. Hernández SS 7. Reyes 2B 8. Duran CF 9. Wong C That worked Wednesday against the lefty. Might as well stick to it !
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 19, 2023 19:49:25 GMT -5
They put Machado on the IL I was hoping he'd play and the Sox would bust him inside all series long.
|
|
|
Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 19, 2023 20:07:08 GMT -5
This is the gristled veteran getting the wet behind the ears Rookie to pick up the check. Well played Xander, but Raffy is learning all the little things that grow with experience.
|
|
|
Post by soxfaninnj on May 19, 2023 20:29:59 GMT -5
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,249
|
Post by cdj on May 19, 2023 20:45:32 GMT -5
Snell looks nasty tonight
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,249
|
Post by cdj on May 19, 2023 20:46:39 GMT -5
DSL lotto ticket Good numbers last year though! (Not that they mean much)
|
|
|
Post by soxfaninnj on May 19, 2023 20:47:20 GMT -5
Getting a lottery ticket for Greg Allen is a great piece of business
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,249
|
Post by cdj on May 19, 2023 20:57:16 GMT -5
97 from Paxton to blow it by Cruz
|
|
|