SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
6/30-7/2 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,194
|
Post by cdj on Jul 2, 2023 19:06:22 GMT -5
For some reason the red sox fanbase has always been horrible about voting in their players. We’re a negative ppl in Boston, if you’re doing good it’s more of a “nice job” and when you’re doing poorly it’s an “I’m gonna gripe about you 24/7” situation You’re 4 times more likely to leave a negative review than a positive review and in New England that jumps up to 25 times more likely. I made these stats up.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2023 19:06:51 GMT -5
I actually wasn’t literally counting days. I don’t recall *not* hearing rosy talk. Being told things are much better than my eyes are telling me — when a team is 120-126 since opening day last year… seems far more factually dubious than what I wrote. Or go back to 2020, 236-232. That is pretty consistent. About .500 for 4 years. About .500 for 2 years. About .500 this year. Fans are optimistic about the future. More at 11. By the way, .500 is not exactly a scarlet letter. It doesn’t take a lot to turn a .500 team into a playoff team, which explains some of the optimism. They're also a .500 club that has played .596 ball in their own division, which has in turn played .597 ball against everyone else. That's the equivalent of playing
.686 ball (against average teams) ... in your 27 most important games. It's hard to do that without having the talent to be very good.
Someone called making the playoffs "unrealistic" twice in one post (IIRC). I hope that's a semantic mistake and that they meant unlikely. It is unlikely that I will become a professional film critic (rather than just getting $200 worth of The Hollywood Reporter every year for my online "most helpful" reviews). It is unrealistic that I will date Roony Mara.
The Sox are 3.5 games behind the two teams current tied for WC 2 and 3, with 77 games left. They have 7 games with each of the teams, and those games do not begin until August 18, when we may well have Chris Sale and / or Trevor Story back. It's also true that a bunch of players project to have more value the rest of the way then so far.
It's very much doable. Note that if you can finish ahead of the Yankees and Astros, it's very unlikely that both the Jays and Twins will finish ahead of you, so the "chasing four teams" isn't really as much of a problem as it seems.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Jul 2, 2023 19:54:46 GMT -5
For some reason the red sox fanbase has always been horrible about voting in their players. Back during the 00s, when the Red Sox were a massive sensation among everyone in the city, the fan base was actually pretty good about voting. Red Sox players won the first two times the league did the Final Roster spot voting and 3 of the first 6.
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 2, 2023 20:01:11 GMT -5
Not sure what his low point was, but Cases is back up to 0.0 war. Nice turnaround, if he can get to 1 war the rest of the way that would be significant
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,677
|
Post by gerry on Jul 2, 2023 20:34:09 GMT -5
I have Verdugo and Devers over him. Who are the 10 you'd have over Jansen? Verdugo Yoshida Duran Devers Turner Bello Paxton Martin Sale
I'd have Refsnyder and Winckowski on about the same tier as Jansen.
ADD: Bernardino too... I hadn't quite realized either how good he's been or how many innings he's already pitched (24 to Jansen's 29). Forget the ASG. That’s actually the core of a very good, above average team. When /if Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Rodriguez, Bleier, Story, McGuire, Chang, Reyes, Mondesi, etc return, the season could be more successful and deep xthan projected. Good thing Bloom built around the edges. Now we also wait for Meyer, Yorke, Rafaela & co.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 2, 2023 20:47:22 GMT -5
Verdugo Yoshida Duran Devers Turner Bello Paxton Martin Sale
I'd have Refsnyder and Winckowski on about the same tier as Jansen.
ADD: Bernardino too... I hadn't quite realized either how good he's been or how many innings he's already pitched (24 to Jansen's 29). Forget the ASG. That’s actually the core of a very good, above average team. When /if Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Rodriguez, Bleier, Story, McGuire, Chang, Reyes, Mondesi, etc return, the season could be more successful and deep xthan projected. Good thing Bloom built around the edges. Now we also wait for Meyer, Yorke, Rafaela & co. If Story returns to SS, Chang, Reyes, and Mondesi are redundant.
|
|
|
Post by cmax on Jul 2, 2023 21:04:19 GMT -5
Not having guys voted into the ASG this year feels like a blessing, especially with the game on the west coast again. Last year Devers and JD were both injured right around the game in LA and then couldn't play right when the team needed them. In 2021, Matt Barnes threw more pitches than any AL pitcher in the ASG (25) and turned into a pumpkin after that. It is a nice honor, but would much rather the Red Sox players rest for the 2nd half and have a chip on their shoulder, as Story, Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber and Sale come back and hopefully we get a chance to see what this team can be at full strength.
|
|
|
Post by lostinnewjersey on Jul 2, 2023 22:24:38 GMT -5
Fans are optimistic about the future. More at 11. By the way, .500 is not exactly a scarlet letter. It doesn’t take a lot to turn a .500 team into a playoff team, which explains some of the optimism. Someone called making the playoffs "unrealistic" twice in one post (IIRC). I hope that's a semantic mistake and that they meant unlikely. It is unlikely that I will become a professional film critic (rather than just getting $200 worth of The Hollywood Reporter every year for my online "most helpful" reviews). It is unrealistic that I will date Roony Mara. Rooney's trying to get your phone number.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 2, 2023 22:40:26 GMT -5
For some reason the red sox fanbase has always been horrible about voting in their players. We’re a negative ppl in Boston, if you’re doing good it’s more of a “nice job” and when you’re doing poorly it’s an “I’m gonna gripe about you 24/7” situation You’re 4 times more likely to leave a negative review than a positive review and in New England that jumps up to 25 times more likely. I made these stats up. The sad result is someone like Betts get tired of walking around with a medicine ball on his back and bails. You'd think the negativity would let up after four World Series but it's worse than I remember as a kid growing up under the Curse of the Babe.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 3, 2023 7:02:05 GMT -5
Hate to be reactionary but based off the evidence is it maybe time to say Whitlock should stick to the pen? He's been a weapon in there the last few years and this year has been a bit of a disaster at sp for him between the injuries and the results.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Jul 3, 2023 7:22:27 GMT -5
Hate to be reactionary but based off the evidence is it maybe time to say Whitlock should stick to the pen? He's been a weapon in there the last few years and this year has been a bit of a disaster at sp for him between the injuries and the results. Seems prudent at least for the time being.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 3, 2023 8:28:18 GMT -5
Hate to be reactionary but based off the evidence is it maybe time to say Whitlock should stick to the pen? He's been a weapon in there the last few years and this year has been a bit of a disaster at sp for him between the injuries and the results. I was wondering if pitching out of the pen is actually a good way to avoid injury, and I found this fabulous article that links out to a number of different studies looking at risk factors for elbow injuries in pitchers. I don't have a firm answer yet, but it's a really interesting read. There is even a fascinating gif of a spooky, scary skeleton throwing a pitch: www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/03/injury-risk-performance-velocity/Two studies that they linked caught my eye: This one identifies a few different risk factors for UCL injuries. These include fewer pitch types, less rest, and higher velocity (all more of a factor pitching out of the pen), and more pitches per game (more of a factor as a starter): www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Predictors-of-Ulnar-Collateral-Ligament-in-Major-Whiteside-Martini/15aa6e97957257607ac8a9550a1ddd9fc0c83f28?p2dfThis one says that relievers are more likely to blow out their elbow in the first half of the year: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26848482/
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Jul 3, 2023 9:19:25 GMT -5
Hate to be reactionary but based off the evidence is it maybe time to say Whitlock should stick to the pen? He's been a weapon in there the last few years and this year has been a bit of a disaster at sp for him between the injuries and the results. Seems prudent at least for the time being. His first year back he was treated with kid gloves coming back from TJ. Maybe that is what he needs. Less pitches than a starter and more rest than a typical reliever. Not ideal but if you can keep him healthy and on the field worth it.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 3, 2023 10:41:45 GMT -5
Kiké finally got to -1 fWAR yesterday. *Taps plays*
Edit: Kluber's only (only) at -0.9 fWAR. Kiké back in the top spot.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2023 11:48:30 GMT -5
Hate to be reactionary but based off the evidence is it maybe time to say Whitlock should stick to the pen? He's been a weapon in there the last few years and this year has been a bit of a disaster at sp for him between the injuries and the results. I was wondering if pitching out of the pen is actually a good way to avoid injury, and I found this fabulous article that links out to a number of different studies looking at risk factors for elbow injuries in pitchers. I don't have a firm answer yet, but it's a really interesting read. There is even a fascinating gif of a spooky, scary skeleton throwing a pitch: www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/03/injury-risk-performance-velocity/Two studies that they linked caught my eye: This one identifies a few different risk factors for UCL injuries. These include fewer pitch types, less rest, and higher velocity (all more of a factor pitching out of the pen), and more pitches per game (more of a factor as a starter): www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Predictors-of-Ulnar-Collateral-Ligament-in-Major-Whiteside-Martini/15aa6e97957257607ac8a9550a1ddd9fc0c83f28?p2dfThis one says that relievers are more likely to blow out their elbow in the first half of the year: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26848482/Bulk reliever is not a sexy role but that may be the sweet spot for my man here.
|
|
|
Post by yuchangclan on Jul 3, 2023 12:16:25 GMT -5
Cora is probably bummed out that it’s an off-day and he can’t sit Duran after his 4 doubles yesterday.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 3, 2023 12:24:26 GMT -5
Cora is probably bummed out that it’s an off-day and he can’t sit Duran after his 4 doubles yesterday. Made him run back to Boston tho.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 3, 2023 13:33:25 GMT -5
Hate to be reactionary but based off the evidence is it maybe time to say Whitlock should stick to the pen? He's been a weapon in there the last few years and this year has been a bit of a disaster at sp for him between the injuries and the results. I was wondering if pitching out of the pen is actually a good way to avoid injury, and I found this fabulous article that links out to a number of different studies looking at risk factors for elbow injuries in pitchers. I don't have a firm answer yet, but it's a really interesting read. There is even a fascinating gif of a spooky, scary skeleton throwing a pitch: www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/03/injury-risk-performance-velocity/Two studies that they linked caught my eye: This one identifies a few different risk factors for UCL injuries. These include fewer pitch types, less rest, and higher velocity (all more of a factor pitching out of the pen), and more pitches per game (more of a factor as a starter): www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Predictors-of-Ulnar-Collateral-Ligament-in-Major-Whiteside-Martini/15aa6e97957257607ac8a9550a1ddd9fc0c83f28?p2dfThis one says that relievers are more likely to blow out their elbow in the first half of the year: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26848482/Too early to tell, but I am wondering if, in three years, they find that the new changes with the clock are blowing up more starters than before. It would be a single, though significant change. I mean, pitchers in general - and starters, in particular - break. One who doesn't is an extreme outlier. But it will be interesting to see if more break, and if those who do break more seriously, in the next three years.
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Jul 3, 2023 14:03:28 GMT -5
Too early to tell, but I am wondering if, in three years, they find that the new changes with the clock are blowing up more starters than before. It would be a single, though significant change. I mean, pitchers in general - and starters, in particular - break. One who doesn't is an extreme outlier. But it will be interesting to see if more break, and if those who do break more seriously, in the next three years. Tyler, Tyler Glasnow??? Is that You??
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 3, 2023 14:49:37 GMT -5
Whitlock injury reportedly not too serious, not structural. Probably will go to IL anyways though. Optimistic view is this would only force him to miss one start which would be against the A’s and by putting him there they can add an extra pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Jul 3, 2023 14:55:51 GMT -5
www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/06/23/alex-verdugo-al-all-star-voting-red-sox-fans/Like I've been saying for years. You guys need to get off your butts and VOTE!!!!!!! This guy has been balling out for us and this is the respect we show him. Why would he even want to resign? You guys understand a player getting votes is something they look at to see how much they are loved and appreciated. We show our players NO LOVE!!!! We make it all about the money and then we get mad when they wont take any pay cuts. NOT IN THE TOP 20?! WOW
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 3, 2023 15:13:05 GMT -5
www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/06/23/alex-verdugo-al-all-star-voting-red-sox-fans/Like I've been saying for years. You guys need to get off your butts and VOTE!!!!!!! This guy has been balling out for us and this is the respect we show him. Why would he even want to resign? You guys understand a player getting votes is something they look at to see how much they are loved and appreciated. We show our players NO LOVE!!!! We make it all about the money and then we get mad when they wont take any pay cuts. NOT IN THE TOP 20?! WOW I disagree with the premise he is *clearly* their best player, as I wrote in the Duran thread. But setting Verdugo aside, this article is really an indictment of the product. If he *is* their best player, then that might explain why they are where they are. And I don’t just mean the standings, but I mean far more the ennui of the fanbase. You can’t get mad at fans for not rallying for a guy who is the best player by default (partly because the actual best player is having a bad year) when the team overall is not good. Whose fault is that?
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 3, 2023 15:20:14 GMT -5
The guy who got really screwed on the ASG is Wander Franco, #5 in MLB in WAR (seriously how did Whit Merrifield make it).
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 3, 2023 16:52:25 GMT -5
www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/06/23/alex-verdugo-al-all-star-voting-red-sox-fans/Like I've been saying for years. You guys need to get off your butts and VOTE!!!!!!! This guy has been balling out for us and this is the respect we show him. Why would he even want to resign? You guys understand a player getting votes is something they look at to see how much they are loved and appreciated. We show our players NO LOVE!!!! We make it all about the money and then we get mad when they wont take any pay cuts. NOT IN THE TOP 20?! WOW I disagree with the premise he is *clearly* their best player, as I wrote in the Duran thread. But setting Verdugo aside, this article is really an indictment of the product. If he *is* their best player, then that might explain why they are where they are. And I don’t just mean the standings, but I mean far more the ennui of the fanbase. You can’t get mad at fans for not rallying for a guy who is the best player by default (partly because the actual best player is having a bad year) when the team overall is not good. Whose fault is that? I've made a similar argument with Raffy, though, and nobody wants to hear it because we all love the kid so much. Dugo is on pace for 5.4 b-Ref WAR, which would be higher than Raffy has put up in four years when he hit that same number. FG shades a bit toward Raffy but you get the point. Dugo is having a nice year and would be a legitimate AS. I'd love to see the Red Sox extend him at reasonable dollars and years. But is he an elite player? I would say no. Same standard for everybody.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Jul 3, 2023 17:37:07 GMT -5
I disagree with the premise he is *clearly* their best player, as I wrote in the Duran thread. But setting Verdugo aside, this article is really an indictment of the product. If he *is* their best player, then that might explain why they are where they are. And I don’t just mean the standings, but I mean far more the ennui of the fanbase. You can’t get mad at fans for not rallying for a guy who is the best player by default (partly because the actual best player is having a bad year) when the team overall is not good. Whose fault is that? I've made a similar argument with Raffy, though, and nobody wants to hear it because we all love the kid so much. Dugo is on pace for 5.4 b-Ref WAR, which would be higher than Raffy has put up in four years when he hit that same number. FG shades a bit toward Raffy but you get the point. Dugo is having a nice year and would be a legitimate AS. I'd love to see the Red Sox extend him at reasonable dollars and years. But is he an elite player? I would say no. Same standard for everybody. Then what qualifies as elite? Being the best RF defensively in the AL this year while being the most clutch player on our team since Ortiz leading the team in WAR, Has single handedly won us like 7 games now with walk offs and outfield assists. He's been our best player this season. If we want to take pride as a fanbase we should of voted for him. Him not being in the top 20 for OF is pathetic. We can do better then that. A guy going into FA has to feel some type of way knowing his own fans are not voting for him. I see Verdugo being another guy who we don't appreciate until he's gone. That just drives me CRAZY.
|
|
|