Sox heavily scouting Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Or you’re over infatuated. We will see how many teams line up with $200,000,000 for a 170 pound starting pitcher with no ML experience.

Did you expect Bogaerts to get 280 million? Why are you surprised that when there is 30 teams one team might very well blow away what others think is a sane offer?

While I wouldnt expect 200 million it wouldnt shock me and I'd anticipate the signing team will offer north of 150.

This is a chance to potentially get a young ace who is still ascending as opposed to paying an Aaron Nola for instance north of 200 million at a higher annual as he advances well into his 30s. Teams are going to consider option A and I doubt it's one team although it's possible one might want to secure his services badly enough, also figuring there is a marketing campaign to be had as well, that an offer of 200 million is possible.

But if the max offer that a team is willing to go is 4 and 100 that will fall short. I mean the Sox were willing to gamble 111 million on Daisuke and that was in 2007. I have no doubt teams are willing to offer more than 100 million in 2023.

Whether you want to argue that would be a wise thing to do, that's a different argument.

With his age and profile, whatever the contract length/money is, it screams opt-out clause right around his age 29 season.

Yeah, 7/150 with an opt-out is about the floor.

If the Sox are gonna sign him with the expectation of him being the ace of the staff, think they'd go 6/180. Yamamato and Bello could anchor a staff for a team with some promising position players coming up, lead by Mayer and Rafaela.

First of all, I apologize for my slight jab at you earlier. I have a few points to make:
1. I think judging by Yoshida’s and Story’s contract, Chaim isn’t afraid to spend money, but he only spends it on players they really like.  So if they really like Yamamoto, I can see them going all out, potentially to 200 mil.
2. The reason I think we will outbid other teams for Yamamoto (or any other FA starters), is because they can and probably will go over the luxury tax next season. We have about 50 mil to spend this offseason, and if you look at the team, the offense won’t change up much, other than the bench. So that leaves all that money for potentially 1-2 really good starters.
3. The reason the Mets and Padres have been bad, is because they don’t have good depth. The Red Sox’s depth on the other hand, is only going to get deeper, with multiple top prospects potentially being ready next year. Hell, we survived a first half when 5 shortstops and 4 starters got hurt, if that’s not good depth I don’t know what is.
4. I’m here to tell you, Yamamoto IS that .01 percent. Ignore all the physical stuff with Yamamoto, if I told you a guy has a sub-2 ERA over 818 innings in his career in a league better than AAA, you would think he’s the number 1 prospect in the game. Also, unlike Dice-K, Yamamoto wasn’t highly touted coming out of high school, meaning he didnt have the insane workload of a typical high school ace in Japan. He also didn’t pitch much early in his career, so his arm has much less workload on it compared to when Dice-K, Tanaka, or even Yu Darvish came over.
5. Other than Tanaka’s insane 2013 season before he came to MLB, Yamamoto has been better than all three of those Japanese legends. So he is less worn down and better than three of the best Japanese pitchers in history (compared to when they were 25 years old, of course)

Now this is a good response, Story was a very very solid signing at 6 years 140. Still has yet to prove that but I think he was just like Teel in the draft. Needed a RHH middle infield was a a need and boom this guy signs for a very responsible price. 150+ deals are just so scary to me unless they are young home grown all stars. Bloom is the type of GM that puts a value on every player and that’s why we’re always interested because at the right price why not. That worked for Story and Masa. Again 5/6 year deal 18-23 mill. 8 years and 25 mill would blow me away from Bloom. Not saying it’s impossible but these 150+ mill dollar deals have a HORRIBLE track record. I prefer deals under 150 unless we’re talking Ohtani.

Eh, I don't know that those major contracts on those guys other than Sale/Price are all that comparable to what the trio of Yamamoto, Nola and Urias are going to get. 

Pedro's deal was signed in 1998 so I wouldn't really count him as Henry wasn't the owner. Schilling was traded for and then given a 3 year 37.5M deal. Beckett was traded for and given a 4 year 68M deal. Matsuzaka was given a 6 year 52M deal but also a 51.1 posting fee so that one is kind of funky. Lackey was given a 5 year 82.5M deal. Price was given 7 years 210M and Sale 5 years 145M. 

The baseball landscape was different back when the Beckett, Schilling, Dice-k and Lackey deals were handed out and they were certainly big deals for the time but as you can see other than Dice-K they didn't go more than 5 years. Maybe I'm making something out of nothing but to me Henry seems very much hesitant to give out long term deals to pitchers and the two biggest deals he's okayed on pitchers have bit the team in the ass in the end. 

That being said, Sale's deal is up after next year so they won't have any sort of money tied up into the rotation once that's off the books so if there was ever a time to go sign a big time pitcher to one of those deals it's this year.

I grabbed all those contract figures off sportrac which from my experience is generally correct or close to it so if my numbers are off please correct me.

I don't even think it's a luxury that they get Yamamoto. It's absolutely necessary.

The Sox have zero minor league pitching depth in the high minors. Mata and Walter have been already figured into bullpen roles, they were your best depth the next 2 years.

Whitlock has like a 60 percent chance of going back to the bullpen next year with his injuries pilling up the past 2 years.

Sale is under contract for one year. Paxton has a qualifying offer attached, which could be picked up I think by Paxton if offered.

So the only 4 guys you have in the rotation that you can guarantee is Houck, Bello, Sale, and maybe Pivetta if they let him back in that role.

Perales is maybe the only starter type you have in the minors. Gonzalez is probably a bullpen type.

You have no options or a lot of depth there. I think the Sox know this and will pull the trigger and go all in on Yamamoto myself.

Forgot Drohan, he hadn't been part of the conversation prior to this season. Struggling at AAA right now. I think that's your number 7 starter next year, if you want to build depth.

I would try to avoid getting emotionally invested in the Red Sox being the one out of 30 teams to sign a free agent that every team will want.

Not that it matters but I wonder if he's related to Admiral Yamamoto who commanded the Japanese Navy during WW2.


Japanese sociology is interesting. He is the only Japanese player that I can think of to play in the USA from what was one of Japan's high up on the hierarchy clans.

ADD: It's been ages since I studied this but I believe he's more likely to be Shinto than the 'ordinary' citizens.