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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 19, 2023 0:23:08 GMT -5
Finish fourth in the division, ahead of MFY, and win the lottery. LFG.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 19, 2023 7:12:26 GMT -5
Win put us 2 1/2 back of Cleveland for the #9. They do have some potential wins against KC and Detroit on the remaining schedule.(We have 3 winnable games against White Sox and two more against Tex, then six tough against TB/Baltimore)
But the greater risk is that we drop. We are now only one win ahead of SF. SF has 7 tough games against the Dodgers, while 5 potential wins (3 against SD and 2 against Arizona).
So we'll hopefully remain 11th, and not drop to 12th.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 19, 2023 13:39:34 GMT -5
PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB STREAK L10 ODDS 1 Oakland 46-103 .309 -- Lost 4 4-6 16.50% 2 Kansas City 48-102 .320 1.5 Lost 1 4-6 16.50% 3 Colorado 56-93 .376 10.0 Lost 1 5-5 16.50% 4 CHI White Sox 57-93 .380 10.5 Lost 1 3-7 13.25% 5 St. Louis 66-83 .443 20.0 Won 1 5-5 10.00% 6 LA Angels 68-82 .453 21.5 Lost 5 4-6 7.50% __ NY Mets 69-80 .463 23.0 Won 1 5-5 5.50%7 Pittsburgh 70-80 .467 23.5 Won 1 5-5 3.90% 8 Detroit 70-79 .470 24.0 Won 4 7-3 2.70% 10 Washington 66-84 .440 19.5 Won 1 3-7 __ San Diego 72-78 .480 25.5 Won 4 6-4 1.40%9 Cleveland 72-78 .480 25.5 Won 3 5-5 1.10% 11 Boston 74-76 .493 27.5 Lost 4 2-8 0.90% 12 San Francisco 76-74 .507 29.5 Won 1 6-4 0.76% __ NY Yankees 76-74 .507 29.5 Lost 1 6-4 0.62%13 Cincinnati 78-73 .517 31.0 Lost 1 5-5 0.48% 14 CHI Cubs 78-72 .520 31.5 Lost 5 2-8 0.36% Thanks for posting this, Steve Dillard. So, besides rooting for teams close to us in W's-L's to win, we also have to root for the Mets to win and the Pirates, Tigers and Angels to lose because we want the Mets to have their R-1 pick moved back 10 spots. That won't happen if they are one of the bottom six teams.
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Post by ephus on Sept 21, 2023 14:01:27 GMT -5
At least for now, the Red Sox are tied at 75-78 with San Diego and given current trends it is probbaly likely that San Diego will end with a better record than Boston. But Boston might could still finish better than New York. San Francisco is right there, too. Where it all ends up, no one knows. Jump 1, jump 2, jump 3, Jump none? So much to be determined in the waning days of the season. The latest in the 12-15 slots. But remember if Boston finishes better than New York and San Diego (meaning better record) they will likely leapfrog them anyway. So, for now, it seems pretty likely Boston picks at 11 or 12 regardless. Or "wins" and moves way up.
12 Boston 75-78 .490 28.5 Lost 2 2-8 1.10% 13 San Diego 75-78 .490 28.5 Won 7 8-2 0.90% 14 San Francisco 76-76 .500 30.0 Lost 2 4-6 0.76% 15 NY Yankees 76-76 .500 30.0 Lost 3 6-4 0.62%
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Post by vmoss on Sept 21, 2023 17:01:54 GMT -5
www.tankathon.com/mlbAny idea why Washington is fixed at 10. I know they can't win lottery again since they won last year? Hope we lose at least 1 or 2 vs Chi. Much hope catching Cleveland or others? Thanks.
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Post by ephus on Sept 21, 2023 17:07:00 GMT -5
www.tankathon.com/mlbAny idea why Washington is fixed at 10. I know they can win lottery again since they won last year? Hope we lose at least 1 or 2 vs Chi. Much hope catching Cleveland or others? Thanks. It is a confusing mix of where they picked last year, revenue sharing and market size. Someone smarter than me can more fully explain but it's rules in the new CBA.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 21, 2023 17:15:21 GMT -5
www.tankathon.com/mlbAny idea why Washington is fixed at 10. I know they can win lottery again since they won last year? Hope we lose at least 1 or 2 vs Chi. Much hope catching Cleveland or others? Thanks. Washington must have received revenue sharing the last two seasons. That would eliminate them from the top 6 pick lottery and prevent them from picking higher than 10.
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Post by urgent on Sept 21, 2023 21:50:35 GMT -5
It’s really complicated.
All the teams that missed the playoffs are eligible for the lottery. The lottery selects the first six slots in the draft.
However, large market teams cannot participate in the lottery in consecutive years. This year the Nationals are not eligible for the lottery because they were in it the previous year. Any large market team in the lottery slots at 10 or lower in the draft the following year. Small market teams can participate twice but not three times in a row. This is the second year of the lottery. There may well be multiple small market teams ineligible next year when the small market disqualified kicks in.
The Sox could slot lower in the draft than their record if teams with better records win a lottery slot for a top six slot. So, for example, if the team slotted 15 wins the fifth pick, they leapfrog teams six through 14 and push them all back.
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Post by ephus on Sept 21, 2023 23:24:07 GMT -5
It’s really complicated. All the teams that missed the playoffs are eligible for the lottery. The lottery selects the first six slots in the draft. However, large market teams cannot participate in the lottery in consecutive years. This year the Nationals are not eligible for the lottery because they were in it the previous year. Any large market team in the lottery slots at 10 or lower in the draft the following year. Small market teams can participate twice but not three times in a row. This is the second year of the lottery. There may well be multiple small market teams ineligible next year when the small market disqualified kicks in. The Sox could slot lower in the draft than their record if teams with better records win a lottery slot for a top six slot. So, for example, if the team slotted 15 wins the fifth pick, they leapfrog teams six through 14 and push them all back. This is wild and will be very interesting to see next year. I wonder how Oakland will be treated when they move to Vegas.
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Post by urgent on Sept 22, 2023 11:31:32 GMT -5
So the language in the CBA says a large market team, or a team not receiving revenue sharing, cannot participate in the lottery in consecutive years. So since the Red Sox missed the playoffs last year and were participants in the lottery, I don’t believe they can participate this year. They are sitting at 11. With the Nationals at 10 I don’t think they can select higher than 11. If that CBA interpretation is correct, they cannot win the lottery.
This is not reflected in the odds of winning the lottery on various sites. Nor are the odds adjusted for any excluded teams, improving the odds of the remaining teams.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 22, 2023 11:33:19 GMT -5
So the language in the CBA says a large market team, or a team not receiving revenue sharing, cannot participate in the lottery in consecutive years. So since the Red Sox missed the playoffs last year and were participants in the lottery, I don’t believe they can participate this year. They are sitting at 11. With the Nationals at 10 I don’t think they can select higher than 11. If that CBA interpretation is correct, they cannot win the lottery. This is not reflected in the odds of winning the lottery on various sites. Nor are the odds adjusted for any excluded teams, improving the odds of the remaining teams. If that were the case, I think we'd have seen that by now
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 22, 2023 14:21:29 GMT -5
One way or another these lottery rules are so convoluted and ridiculous. Should just make it like NBAs. Who cares how many times a team gets a top 5 pick.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 22, 2023 14:52:07 GMT -5
So the language in the CBA says a large market team, or a team not receiving revenue sharing, cannot participate in the lottery in consecutive years. So since the Red Sox missed the playoffs last year and were participants in the lottery, I don’t believe they can participate this year. They are sitting at 11. With the Nationals at 10 I don’t think they can select higher than 11. If that CBA interpretation is correct, they cannot win the lottery. This is not reflected in the odds of winning the lottery on various sites. Nor are the odds adjusted for any excluded teams, improving the odds of the remaining teams. If that were the case, I think we'd have seen that by now I just looked this up - the rule is that rich teams can’t get a top six pick in consecutive years, so Boston is still eligible this year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 22, 2023 14:54:48 GMT -5
If that were the case, I think we'd have seen that by now I just looked this up - the rule is that rich teams can’t get a top six pick in consecutive years, so Boston is still eligible this year. Such a stupid rule. I get how mlb draft isn't like other leagues but yes let's hamstring the markets that people actually care about for the draft and let smaller market teams benefit. Makes no sense.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,770
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Post by mobaz on Sept 22, 2023 15:40:31 GMT -5
I just looked this up - the rule is that rich teams can’t get a top six pick in consecutive years, so Boston is still eligible this year. Such a stupid rule. I get how mlb draft isn't like other leagues but yes let's hamstring the markets that people actually care about for the draft and let smaller market teams benefit. Makes no sense. Majority rule. More poor billionaires than rich billionaires in ownership
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 24, 2023 17:34:53 GMT -5
PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB 1 Oakland 48-107 .310 -- 2 Kansas City 54-102 .346 5.5 3 Colorado 56-99 .361 8.0 4 CHI White Sox 60-96 .385 11.5 5 St. Louis 68-87 .439 20.0 6 LA Angels 70-86 .449 21.5 NY Mets 71-84 .458 23.0 7 Detroit 73-83 .468 24.5 8 Cleveland 74-83 .471 25.0 10 Washington 69-87 .442 20.5 9 Pittsburgh 74-82 .474 25.5 11 Boston 76-80 .487 27.5 12 San Francisco 77-78 .497 29.0 San Diego 77-79 .493 28.5
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Post by vmoss on Sept 24, 2023 18:10:08 GMT -5
Should the nym be label as 7, I think they are still elgible for top6. Drops 10 slots after lottery?
Thanks.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 24, 2023 18:54:08 GMT -5
I believe nothing happens to the Mets until after the lottery, and then they keep their pick if it's 1-6 (and their 2nd round pick drops 10 slots, which is not a big deal), or else they drop 10 slots.
The odds on the tankathon website say the Mets are about 45% to keep their pick. Kind of a dumb system to have so much riding on a coin flip.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 25, 2023 6:34:09 GMT -5
Am I correct that the tiebreaker is last year's records, so that even if we end with the same record as SF we still pick ahead of them because we also had a poorer record last year? (I.e., we have a two game difference? 11th pick looks like it's pretty certain.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 25, 2023 6:51:14 GMT -5
Probably too early to say at this point but is there any early indication on if the 2024 draft looks good at this point?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 25, 2023 8:06:47 GMT -5
Probably too early to say at this point but is there any early indication on if the 2024 draft looks good at this point? From everything I've heard so far, it's supposed to be a down year. There's always guys that emerge though - it's early.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 25, 2023 8:22:18 GMT -5
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 412
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Post by badfishnbc on Sept 25, 2023 9:13:27 GMT -5
It’s really complicated. All the teams that missed the playoffs are eligible for the lottery. The lottery selects the first six slots in the draft. However, large market teams cannot participate in the lottery in consecutive years. This year the Nationals are not eligible for the lottery because they were in it the previous year. Any large market team in the lottery slots at 10 or lower in the draft the following year. Small market teams can participate twice but not three times in a row. This is the second year of the lottery. There may well be multiple small market teams ineligible next year when the small market disqualified kicks in. The Sox could slot lower in the draft than their record if teams with better records win a lottery slot for a top six slot. So, for example, if the team slotted 15 wins the fifth pick, they leapfrog teams six through 14 and push them all back. This is wild and will be very interesting to see next year. I wonder how Oakland will be treated when they move to Vegas. I know this has been debated ad nauseum why Oakland is even considered a small market, but Vegas ranks behind Milwaukee and KC and the other so-called small-market teams. Based on that ownership group, I can see them claiming poor in perpetuity.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 27, 2023 8:33:34 GMT -5
Red Sox look likely to have positions 9, 11, 12, or 13 going into the lottery. Technically could still get 7 through 16. If you're box score watching, I'd be rooting for the Pirates, Tigers, and Giants to win.
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Post by urgent on Sept 27, 2023 9:02:55 GMT -5
This is wild and will be very interesting to see next year. I wonder how Oakland will be treated when they move to Vegas. I know this has been debated ad nauseum why Oakland is even considered a small market, but Vegas ranks behind Milwaukee and KC and the other so-called small-market teams. Based on that ownership group, I can see them claiming poor in perpetuity. Isn’t the definition of “small market” driven by whether you received revenue sharing, not actual size of your base? The language is very confusing.
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