badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Sept 27, 2023 11:23:17 GMT -5
I know this has been debated ad nauseum why Oakland is even considered a small market, but Vegas ranks behind Milwaukee and KC and the other so-called small-market teams. Based on that ownership group, I can see them claiming poor in perpetuity. Isn’t the definition of “small market” driven by whether you received revenue sharing, not actual size of your base? The language is very confusing. Miami receives revenue sharing. Definitely not a small market.
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ephus
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Post by ephus on Sept 27, 2023 11:35:56 GMT -5
Probably too early to say at this point but is there any early indication on if the 2024 draft looks good at this point? From everything I've heard so far, it's supposed to be a down year. There's always guys that emerge though - it's early. And the Mets, having gone 3-7 in their last 10 are only one game (two in the loss column) behind the Angels for the six spot, putting them very much in the lottery and much less likely to have their spot dropped 10 places. So it is far less likley today that Boston will jump up a spot.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2023 6:47:13 GMT -5
PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB 1 Oakland 48-110 .304 2 Kansas City 54-103 .344 3 Colorado 57-101 .361 4 CHI White Sox 60-98 .380 5 St. Louis 69-89 .437 6 LA Angels 71-88 .447 NY Mets 72-86 .456 7 Pittsburgh 74-84 .468 8 Detroit 74-83 .471 10 Washington 69-90 .434 9 Cleveland 75-84 .472 11 Boston 76-82 .481 12 San Francisco 78-81 .491 San Diego 79-80 .497
I believe the tie breakers are last years' rankings, meaning we have the "advantage" over Cleveland due to finishing below them last year. Therefore, there we are only one Cleveland win away from the 9th pick. By the same measure, the Mets need to stay out of the top 6 to not lose their pick. However, the Angels were worse last year, so the difference is actually 2 1/2 games right now with 4 to go.
Unless the Sox go on a run, they will not overtake SF.
9 or 11 seem most likely.
Boston with 4 vs. Baltimore have second toughest remaining schedule SF with 3 against LAD have third toughest. Cleveland has 3 vs. Detroit. Our hope is Cleveland sweeps, or at least takes 2. If Detroit sweeps they could overtake us, but taking 2/3 would leave us tied (if we lose out), but Detroit would still have higher pick.
The longest chance is Pitt, with 4 left, 1 against Philly, and 3 against Florida.
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 28, 2023 7:24:27 GMT -5
PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB 1 Oakland 48-110 .304 2 Kansas City 54-103 .344 3 Colorado 57-101 .361 4 CHI White Sox 60-98 .380 5 St. Louis 69-89 .437 6 LA Angels 71-88 .447 NY Mets 72-86 .4567 Pittsburgh 74-84 .468 8 Detroit 74-83 .471 10 Washington 69-90 .4349 Cleveland 75-84 .472 11 Boston 76-82 .481 12 San Francisco 78-81 .491 San Diego 79-80 .497 I believe the tie breakers are last years' rankings, meaning we have the "advantage" over Cleveland due to finishing below them last year. Therefore, there we are only one Cleveland win away from the 9th pick. By the same measure, the Mets need to stay out of the top 6 to not lose their pick. However, the Angels were worse last year, so the difference is actually 2 1/2 games right now with 4 to go. Unless the Sox go on a run, they will not overtake SF. 9 or 11 seem most likely. Boston with 4 vs. Baltimore have second toughest remaining schedule SF with 3 against LAD have third toughest. Cleveland has 3 vs. Detroit. Our hope is Cleveland sweeps, or at least takes 2. If Detroit sweeps they could overtake us, but taking 2/3 would leave us tied (if we lose out), but Detroit would still have higher pick. The longest chance is Pitt, with 4 left, 1 against Philly, and 3 against Florida. I’m just glad we aren’t winning meaningless games. I know the difference between the talent at pick 9 vs 11 isn’t much. A few extra dollars never hurts.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2023 15:36:12 GMT -5
Updated for Detroit SWEEP of double header vs. KC, so tied with Boston in the win column, and ahead of Cleveland.
7 Pittsburgh 74-84 8 Cleveland 75-84 9 Detroit 76-83 10 Washington 69-90 11 Boston 76-82 12 San Francisco 78-81
Detroit's sweep makes the Cleveland/Detroit series really interesting. Assuming we can hold off an not win any more games, one of Cle/Det is guaranteed to pass us. We need only tie Cleveland to move up (they had better record last year). We lose the tie breaker to Detroit, so they need to finish with a better record. As long as no sweep, Detroit taking 1 or 2 of the 3 games means both would pass us and we pick 8th!!!!!!
1967 3 Mike Garman 1966 4 Ken Brett 2021 4 Marcelo Mayer 1965 5 Billy Conigliaro 1993 7 Trot Nixon 2013 7 Trey Ball 2015 7 Andrew Benintendi 1988 12 Tom Fischer 1994 12 Nomar Garciaparra 1998 12 Adam Everett 2016 12 Jay Groome 1969 13 Noel Jenke 1984 14 John Marzano 1986 14 Greg McMurtry 2023 14 Kyle Teel 1971 15 Jim Rice 1975 15 Otis Foster 1995 15 Andy Yount 1970 16 Jimmie Hacker 1972 16 Joel Bishop 1982 16 *Sam Horn 1989 16 *Greg Blosser 1973 17 Ted Cox 1997 17 John Curtice 1999 17 *Rick Asadoorian 2003 17 David Murphy 2020 17 Nick Yorke
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 28, 2023 16:27:50 GMT -5
Nice work on the list Steve. You got me to look up Clemens picked 19th and Fred Lynn going 41st.
Matt Barnes was also picked 19th, one selection after Sonny Gray.
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 28, 2023 17:25:10 GMT -5
What pick(s) would we loose for signing a free agent who received a qualifying offer? I believe our first pick is protected. We didn't go over hte luxury tax this year and do not receive small market sharing. Not seeing anything on this situation, and we seem likely to sign one.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 28, 2023 17:27:41 GMT -5
What pick(s) would we loose for signing a free agent who received a qualifying offer? I believe our first pick is protected. We didn't go over hte luxury tax this year and do not receive small market sharing. Not seeing anything on this situation, and we seem likely to sign one. They would lose their second round pick.
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Sept 28, 2023 18:24:51 GMT -5
Updated for Detroit SWEEP of double header vs. KC, so tied with Boston in the win column, and ahead of Cleveland. 7 Pittsburgh 74-84 8 Cleveland 75-84 9 Detroit 76-83 10 Washington 69-9011 Boston 76-82 12 San Francisco 78-81 Detroit's sweep makes the Cleveland/Detroit series really interesting. Assuming we can hold off an not win any more games, one of Cle/Det is guaranteed to pass us. We need only tie Cleveland to move up (they had better record last year). We lose the tie breaker to Detroit, so they need to finish with a better record. As long as no sweep, Detroit taking 1 or 2 of the 3 games means both would pass us and we pick 8th!!!!!!1967 3 Mike Garman 1966 4 Ken Brett 2021 4 Marcelo Mayer 1965 5 Billy Conigliaro 1993 7 Trot Nixon 2013 7 Trey Ball 2015 7 Andrew Benintendi 1988 12 Tom Fischer 1994 12 Nomar Garciaparra 1998 12 Adam Everett 2016 12 Jay Groome 1969 13 Noel Jenke 1984 14 John Marzano 1986 14 Greg McMurtry 2023 14 Kyle Teel 1971 15 Jim Rice 1975 15 Otis Foster 1995 15 Andy Yount 1970 16 Jimmie Hacker 1972 16 Joel Bishop 1982 16 *Sam Horn 1989 16 *Greg Blosser 1973 17 Ted Cox 1997 17 John Curtice 1999 17 *Rick Asadoorian 2003 17 David Murphy 2020 17 Nick Yorke Every time I think of the Red Sox drafting Tom Fischer in the first round, I go a tiny bit apoplectic.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 28, 2023 18:27:09 GMT -5
Wasn’t he the nephew of Bill Fischer our pitching coach? Lots of provincial nepotism at the time. Haywood Sullivan and Marc Sullivan.
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Sept 28, 2023 18:52:23 GMT -5
Wasn’t he the nephew of Bill Fischer our pitching coach? Lots of provincial nepotism at the time. Haywood Sullivan and Marc Sullivan. Yup. It's amazing Buddy LeRoux's daughter wasn't the starting center fielder.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 28, 2023 20:09:19 GMT -5
Red Sox are now tied with Detroit and one game back from Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Red Sox only have the tie breaker with Cleveland. Red Sox look likely to go into the lottery somewhere between the 9th to 13th best odds, although 11th or 12th seems most probable.
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 28, 2023 22:10:10 GMT -5
Best case scenario.
Sox get swept by Baltimore Pittsburgh wins 2 of 3 vs. Miami Cleveland wins 2 of 3 vs. Detriot
8. Red Sox 76-86 9. Pittsburgh 77-85 11. Detriot 77-85 12. Cleveland 77-85
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 1:53:07 GMT -5
I beiieve anything but a sweep in the Det/Cle series gets us there. If Det wins 2 we would be tied with Cleveland at 76 wins, but pick ahead of them because of last year's record.
And the picks above in your scenario and mine would be #7. Mets pick drops 10 spots.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 29, 2023 8:45:04 GMT -5
I beiieve anything but a sweep in the Det/Cle series gets us there. If Det wins 2 we would be tied with Cleveland at 76 wins, but pick ahead of them because of last year's record. And the picks above in your scenario and mine would be #7. Mets pick drops 10 spots.Only if they don't end up in the top 6. They currently have the 7th best odds so they very well may end up in the top 6 when the lottery takes place.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 29, 2023 8:58:37 GMT -5
I beiieve anything but a sweep in the Det/Cle series gets us there. If Det wins 2 we would be tied with Cleveland at 76 wins, but pick ahead of them because of last year's record. And the picks above in your scenario and mine would be #7. Mets pick drops 10 spots.Only if they don't end up in the top 6. They currently have the 7th best odds so they very well may end up in the top 6 when the lottery takes place. If the Mets(host Philly) win one this weekend. Or, as long as Washington(at Atl)or St Louis(host Cincy) don’t sweep their opponents. Very doubtful Mets fall to 6.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 9:11:00 GMT -5
Didn't notice until Chris H's twitter retweet: not only is finishing 8 or 9 good in itself, but 7th (50% plus) and 8th (40% plus) or 9th (28%) make the lottery (top 6) far more likely.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2023 9:18:54 GMT -5
All this lotto talk reminds of the story that came out after last years lotto that the Sox were literally like one ball/number away from getting the first pick. I'm glad they got Teel but boy imagine the buzz about the farm if they added either Crews/Skenes/Langford.
Maybe that near luck they missed out on last year will propel their luck this year to rise a couple spots where ever they land in the lotto this year.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 29, 2023 9:22:53 GMT -5
Only if they don't end up in the top 6. They currently have the 7th best odds so they very well may end up in the top 6 when the lottery takes place. If the Mets(host Philly) win one this weekend. Or, as long as Washington(at Atl)or St Louis(host Cincy) don’t sweep their opponents. Very doubtful Mets fall to 6. But they don't have to fall to 6 this weekend. It's a lottery, so if they get a top 6 pick in the lottery in December, their pick won't drop 10 spots. Sitting at 7 or 8, they still have a very good shot at a top 6 pick.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2023 9:30:08 GMT -5
At 7th the Mets would have about a 50/50 chance of moving into the lottery.
But there's only a 10% chance of that.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2023 9:36:32 GMT -5
Is it just me or is it a pretty stupid rule that your first pick only loses 10 spots in the draft if its outside of the top 6? I don't know that really doesn't seem like much of a deterrent. While sure theoretically if you have pick 20 and have to move down to 30 sure that's a bit of a loss but at the same end, not really that much a difference. The big difference obviously would be you somehow get pick 1 but now you have to drop to 11. That seems like an actual deterrent but that's not how it works.
Like I said maybe it's just me but that's my two cents.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 29, 2023 11:09:51 GMT -5
Is it just me or is it a pretty stupid rule that your first pick only loses 10 spots in the draft if its outside of the top 6? I don't know that really doesn't seem like much of a deterrent. While sure theoretically if you have pick 20 and have to move down to 30 sure that's a bit of a loss but at the same end, not really that much a difference. The big difference obviously would be you somehow get pick 1 but now you have to drop to 11. That seems like an actual deterrent but that's not how it works. Like I said maybe it's just me but that's my two cents. FYI, if you draft that high then your next pick drops. In other words, it's basically saying the penalty is on your first pick between X and Y.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 29, 2023 11:10:26 GMT -5
All this lotto talk reminds of the story that came out after last years lotto that the Sox were literally like one ball/number away from getting the first pick. I'm glad they got Teel but boy imagine the buzz about the farm if they added either Crews/Skenes/Langford. Maybe that near luck they missed out on last year will propel their luck this year to rise a couple spots where ever they land in the lotto this year. Would've loved those sweet, sweet LSU fan page hits...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 29, 2023 11:23:11 GMT -5
Is it just me or is it a pretty stupid rule that your first pick only loses 10 spots in the draft if its outside of the top 6? I don't know that really doesn't seem like much of a deterrent. While sure theoretically if you have pick 20 and have to move down to 30 sure that's a bit of a loss but at the same end, not really that much a difference. The big difference obviously would be you somehow get pick 1 but now you have to drop to 11. That seems like an actual deterrent but that's not how it works. Like I said maybe it's just me but that's my two cents. The draft-pick penalty is for spending too far over the CBT. If you finish in the bottom six but still spent a lot, you can't really be accused of being cheap and not really trying to win. I would even advocate for pushing it from 6 to 10. You want teams to spend, at least if you're a player (or agent).
Edit: To go one step further, I would want to see a draft-pick penalty for teams that spend below a given floor.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2023 11:35:20 GMT -5
I get that if your pick falls in top 6 then your next pick is the one that drops, but to me that's barely any sort of deterrent. That's dropping from 40 to 50 or something in that ballpark. I guess that I already get kind of annoyed at some of the other rules that "small market" teams get when it comes to the draft that this shouldn't really bother me and it doesn't bother me all that much but like I said just my two cents.
Anywho, Looks like the lotto takes place on December 5th so in the grand scheme of things not too far away until we can know where the Sox pick first round and maybe start scouring early mock drafts. Hopefully there's some good risers in the 2024 draft class since VermontSox1 answered that as of right now it is thought to perhaps be a down year on my question how the draft was looking at this juncture.
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