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2024 Free Agency
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Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2023 0:30:56 GMT -5
I have a feeling it’s going to be Blake Snell I could see that. There's a Bloom Snell Tampa connection. I dont see the Sox going where the Mers are likely to go with Yamamoto to sign him if Ohtani winds up with the Dodgers. The Sox will have to get somebody and Snell is as good a candidate as anybody else. His walks are worrisome to me, however. I think it'll take something like 10 years 250 million to sign the 25 year old Yamamoto, and I don't think Bloom goes there. It'll probably cost somewhere near what David Price got to sign Snell and Bloom might stretch for that.I'm not a huge Snell fan. I do hope the Sox land Yamamoto. I just dont exoect them to however. I think the Mets will spend big for a guy who can grow with their newly bought farm system and they cleared out a good chunk of Verlander and Scherzer's money not that it would deter Steve Cohen either way. I think the Mets will chase Ohtani but I'd think the Dodgers will splurge for him and I'd think the appeal of stating on the West Coast but playing for the LA team that actually makes the postseason every year would hold a lot of appeal for him. I could see the Dodgers giving him 10 years 500 million Geez, I am way out on Snell at that price tag, and moreover I don't see why Snell would appeal to Bloom in particular. The peripherals are not that impressive, he's had the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park, he'll presumably cost a draft pick, this will be his first season over 130 IP since 2018, and he's gonna be 31 years old. There are few pitchers I think the Red Sox are less likely to sign.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 16, 2023 5:40:53 GMT -5
I can't see this organization making a big commitment on a pitcher, no matter who it is. I definitely don't think Snell would make them change their minds.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2023 6:43:24 GMT -5
I could see that. There's a Bloom Snell Tampa connection. I dont see the Sox going where the Mers are likely to go with Yamamoto to sign him if Ohtani winds up with the Dodgers. The Sox will have to get somebody and Snell is as good a candidate as anybody else. His walks are worrisome to me, however. I think it'll take something like 10 years 250 million to sign the 25 year old Yamamoto, and I don't think Bloom goes there. It'll probably cost somewhere near what David Price got to sign Snell and Bloom might stretch for that.I'm not a huge Snell fan. I do hope the Sox land Yamamoto. I just dont exoect them to however. I think the Mets will spend big for a guy who can grow with their newly bought farm system and they cleared out a good chunk of Verlander and Scherzer's money not that it would deter Steve Cohen either way. I think the Mets will chase Ohtani but I'd think the Dodgers will splurge for him and I'd think the appeal of stating on the West Coast but playing for the LA team that actually makes the postseason every year would hold a lot of appeal for him. I could see the Dodgers giving him 10 years 500 million Geez, I am way out on Snell at that price tag, and moreover I don't see why Snell would appeal to Bloom in particular. The peripherals are not that impressive, he's had the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park, he'll presumably cost a draft pick, this will be his first season over 130 IP since 2018, and he's gonna be 31 years old. There are few pitchers I think the Red Sox are less likely to sign. Most free agent pitchers are at or approaching 30 which is what makes Yamamoto such a unique opportunity. I'm not a Snell fan personally, but I'd imagine he has to sign somebody they could put toward the front of the rotation and guys like that are ridiculously expensive. Pitchers are getting 35 -43 million these days which is silly considering how few innings they pitch nowadays. My hope is that they do with Yamamoto what they did with Yoshids, be willing to outbid everybody, but while it worked with Yoshida, it would beca lot tougher to do with Yamamoto. All teams know that a 25 year old free agent with ace like atuff is a rarity in free agency.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 16, 2023 6:57:10 GMT -5
I feel like Snell is probably looking at something in the ballpark of what Rodon got. Might be too rich for my blood on Snell but if they strikeout on other solid SP targets and were left having to sign Snell for 6/160 give or take I think I'd be alright with it?
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 16, 2023 8:25:50 GMT -5
No way does Snell get the Price contract and extra no way he would from the Red Sox
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 16, 2023 8:45:35 GMT -5
I could see that. There's a Bloom Snell Tampa connection. I dont see the Sox going where the Mers are likely to go with Yamamoto to sign him if Ohtani winds up with the Dodgers. The Sox will have to get somebody and Snell is as good a candidate as anybody else. His walks are worrisome to me, however. I think it'll take something like 10 years 250 million to sign the 25 year old Yamamoto, and I don't think Bloom goes there. It'll probably cost somewhere near what David Price got to sign Snell and Bloom might stretch for that.I'm not a huge Snell fan. I do hope the Sox land Yamamoto. I just dont exoect them to however. I think the Mets will spend big for a guy who can grow with their newly bought farm system and they cleared out a good chunk of Verlander and Scherzer's money not that it would deter Steve Cohen either way. I think the Mets will chase Ohtani but I'd think the Dodgers will splurge for him and I'd think the appeal of stating on the West Coast but playing for the LA team that actually makes the postseason every year would hold a lot of appeal for him. I could see the Dodgers giving him 10 years 500 million Geez, I am way out on Snell at that price tag, and moreover I don't see why Snell would appeal to Bloom in particular. The peripherals are not that impressive, he's had the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park, he'll presumably cost a draft pick, this will be his first season over 130 IP since 2018, and he's gonna be 31 years old. There are few pitchers I think the Red Sox are less likely to sign. I do not think there is a chance in hell that Snell gets close to 7 years, $210 million from any team this offseason. Particularly with the much greater depth of pitching talent in this year's free agent market, as compared to last year's. I realize Carlos Rodon got the absurd 6 year/$162 million contract from the Yankees based on two ridiculous seasons he had prior to free agency, and Snell has dramatically less injury concern and much more career consistency. However, the previous poster is SPOT ON about the fact that Snell has not pitched more than 130+ innings since 2018 along with already being 31. Based on what the market looks to be shaping up like in terms of greater depth of options, I think Snell will get somewhere around 6 years/$150 million. And I would ABSOLUTELY be in on that. Along with Yamamoto. Luxury tax reset. 40 million coming off the books. And one season way from Chris Sale's $30 million/year contract coming off the books. Spend every free agent dollar on those two players (Snell and Yamamoto), and you are a World Series contender next year, and for multiple years moving forward. I would much rather that Bloom trade for a top-tier pitcher under control, like Cease or Gilbert, but that is looking more and more like it will be cost prohibitive (in terms of prospects) to Bloom based on what the White Sox/Mariners were asking for at the trade deadline. So long-term free agent pitching contracts it is (WOOO!!!) ..... Your lineup is essentially set, and dynamic. The one last order of business would be making sure Turner comes back as a DH on his player option, or paying him a bit more if he elects free agency. I mean, your bullpen is already nasty and would jump to an entirely different level if you signed two top-tier pitchers. At that point, you would probably be able to trade one of Pivetta/Crawford (at their peak values) for any remaining need there might be on the roster. ..... It's on ownership to give Bloom the capital necessary to pull it off. And it's on Bloom to actually not let himself get outbid on players whose contracts will clearly not be "smart decisions," in terms of their long-term cost, but necessary decisions in terms of actually being a true WS contender again. Which is where the Boston Red Sox were supposed to be by next year based on "Bloom's plan" (from what I've gathered reading/listening to Sox insiders)
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Post by redsoxfansince94 on Aug 16, 2023 9:48:28 GMT -5
There’s just no chance Boston shells it out to Snell.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Aug 16, 2023 11:51:31 GMT -5
I can't see this organization making a big commitment on a pitcher, no matter who it is. I definitely don't think Snell would make them change their minds. Oh, I think the exact opposite. They've got money, they've restocked the system. They are ready to grow, and the most glaring need is SP. And it just so happens that there are many excellent starters available this offseason. I think the recent lack of spending on big-ticket items has been situational, not a philosophy. It should be, anyway. I guess we'll see.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
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Post by tedf on Aug 16, 2023 13:22:26 GMT -5
I want to see them sign two durable starting pitchers, not necessarily first-tier but guys who can take the ball for 30 starts and give you 180 quality innings. Do that and your bullpen is suddenly brilliant with depth (trade Pivetta to make the roster work). Beyond that, they need to make sure their middle infield is solid (Story + ) and they need to find a role for Yoshida where he can be an asset. His health and defensive struggles in LF make it questionable that he can continue there.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 16, 2023 14:27:34 GMT -5
I want to see them sign two durable starting pitchers, not necessarily first-tier but guys who can take the ball for 30 starts and give you 180 quality innings. Do that and your bullpen is suddenly brilliant with depth (trade Pivetta to make the roster work). Beyond that, they need to make sure their middle infield is solid (Story + ) and they need to find a role for Yoshida where he can be an asset. His health and defensive struggles in LF make it questionable that he can continue there. This is where I'm at, I firmly believe they need two invest in two legitimate SPs and while I'd obviously love one of the first tier guys I'd be fine with some combo of Montgomery/Giolito/E-Rod/Paxton or whoever else would be in that type of tier. What I don't want is any more Kluber's right now, they don't need some mediocre innings eating 5th starter. They have some combo of Pivetta/Houck/Crawford/Whitlock who can slide in as the 5th starter. I think if they do go with two SPs of that type then that's probably the bulk of the heavy lifting this offseason.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 16, 2023 15:28:21 GMT -5
Multiple starting pitchers who are going to give you 180 quality innings? For 2021-2022 there were 14 pitchers in baseball who threw 360 innings total. Many of them are not on pace to do that this year. If you're thinking an innings eater starter I think you need to lower the threshold you're hoping for to like 150, because even among the top tier guys expecting 180 quality innings is a lot. Nola is pretty much the only one on the market who has done that consistently.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2023 17:35:30 GMT -5
I tried sorting the SP free agent class by tiers - less in terms of ranking by preference and more what kind of investment each might cost:
Back Up the Brinks Truck: Ohtani
Don’t Bother, He’s Going Back to LA: Kershaw
“Taijuan Walker Is Making 72 million - My Client is Better than Taijuan Walker”: Yamamoto, Nola, Snell, Urias, E-rod, Giolito, Gray, Montgomery, Flaherty, Stroman
Old, Good, but Literally Back from TJ: Ryu, Maeda
Reclamation Projects: Severino, Marquez (TJ), Tyler Mahle (TJ), Montas, Syndergaard???
Swingmen: Manaea, Alex Wood
Old Fellas: Grienke, Rich Hill, Carrasco, Wade Miley, Cueto
Hard Pass: Mike Clevinger
Miscellaneous (i.e. who Chaim actually signs): Seth Lugo, Andrew Heaney (both have opt outs)
Overall, it doesn’t seem like this SP class is poised to have a lot of bargains I.e. Zach Eflin for 3/40 mil???
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 16, 2023 17:41:05 GMT -5
Multiple starting pitchers who are going to give you 180 quality innings? For 2021-2022 there were 14 pitchers in baseball who threw 360 innings total. Many of them are not on pace to do that this year. If you're thinking an innings eater starter I think you need to lower the threshold you're hoping for to like 150, because even among the top tier guys expecting 180 quality innings is a lot. Nola is pretty much the only one on the market who has done that consistently. Thanks for looking that number up, I was headed that way. Finding one pitcher like that is rare - as you showed. Finding two? Forget it.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 16, 2023 17:56:41 GMT -5
I tried sorting the SP free agent class by tiers - less in terms of ranking by preference and more what kind of investment each might cost: Back Up the Brinks Truck: Ohtani Don’t Bother, He’s Going Back to LA: Kershaw “ Taijuan Walker Is Making 72 million - My Client is Better than Taijuan Walker”: Yamamoto, Nola, Snell, Urias, E-rod, Giolito, Gray, Montgomery, Flaherty, Stroman Old, Good, but Literally Back from TJ: Ryu, Maeda Reclamation Projects: Severino, Marquez (TJ), Tyler Mahle (TJ), Montas, Syndergaard??? Swingmen: Manaea, Alex Wood Old Fellas: Grienke, Rich Hill, Carrasco, Wade Miley, Cueto Hard Pass: Mike Clevinger Miscellaneous (i.e. who Chaim actually signs): Seth Lugo, Andrew Heaney (both have opt outs) Overall, it doesn’t seem like this SP class is poised to have a lot of bargains I.e. Zach Eflin for 3/40 mil??? This is helpful, though I'd probably put Yamamoto/Nola/Urias on a tier above the others. I could also see Lorenzen as a little bit Eflin-like, Lugo's a good pick in that category too, Flaherty could sort of be in there as well.
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Post by bosoxkc on Aug 16, 2023 17:57:21 GMT -5
Yamamoto Sale Paxton Giolito, Erod, Gray, etc whoever takes under 4/60 Trade for 50FV (Priester, Leiter, Cavalli) time to use a few prospects
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 16, 2023 18:01:30 GMT -5
I tried sorting the SP free agent class by tiers - less in terms of ranking by preference and more what kind of investment each might cost: Back Up the Brinks Truck: Ohtani Don’t Bother, He’s Going Back to LA: Kershaw “ Taijuan Walker Is Making 72 million - My Client is Better than Taijuan Walker”: Yamamoto, Nola, Snell, Urias, E-rod, Giolito, Gray, Montgomery, Flaherty, Stroman Old, Good, but Literally Back from TJ: Ryu, Maeda Reclamation Projects: Severino, Marquez (TJ), Tyler Mahle (TJ), Montas, Syndergaard??? Swingmen: Manaea, Alex Wood Old Fellas: Grienke, Rich Hill, Carrasco, Wade Miley, Cueto Hard Pass: Mike Clevinger Miscellaneous (i.e. who Chaim actually signs): Seth Lugo, Andrew Heaney (both have opt outs) Overall, it doesn’t seem like this SP class is poised to have a lot of bargains I.e. Zach Eflin for 3/40 mil??? I do almost wonder if the sure volume of solid starters may actually lead to some bargains that we're not anticipating. There's only so much money to go around and that's a deep list of starters. Maybe just some wishful thinking on my part though.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 16, 2023 18:14:40 GMT -5
Why you guys want bargains? We’re the goddamn Red Sox and the rotation sucks, give me two big names.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 16, 2023 18:19:41 GMT -5
Yamamoto Sale Paxton Giolito, Erod, Gray, etc whoever takes under 4/60 Trade for 50FV (Priester, Leiter, Cavalli) time to use a few prospects What are you doing with Bello?
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 16, 2023 18:34:49 GMT -5
Snell Montgomery Paxton Sale Bello in any order is fine with me. We reset the luxury tax. This is the year to give up the draft pick the minor league system looks amazing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2023 18:40:22 GMT -5
Why you guys want bargains? We’re the goddamn Red Sox and the rotation sucks, give me two big names. I feel you here, but imagine taking this approach last year and ending up with a broken down Jacob DeGrom and Carlos Rodon.
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manfred
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Posts: 11,405
Member is Online
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Post by manfred on Aug 17, 2023 9:56:46 GMT -5
This is a grim FA class. I am a hard pass on Snell.
Anyway, my number one wish is a RF with an above-average bat. That is almost certainly going to require a trade. The OF has been a weakness, and it just seems to stay weak.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 17, 2023 10:09:16 GMT -5
This is a grim FA class. I am a hard pass on Snell. Anyway, my number one wish is a RF with an above-average bat. That is almost certainly going to require a trade. The OF has been a weakness, and it just seems to stay weak. They're 8th in MLB in fWAR in the outfield, 4th in the AL.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 17, 2023 10:25:18 GMT -5
We should keep in mind the FA after this is fairly strong and honestly shelling out a Devers like do contract to Soto then doesn’t seem like such a bad idea. First year of his contract would be his age 26 season
His incredible walk rates make him a very safe bet as far as mega contracts go. If Mayer developes as hoped you get 6 years of
Soto Mayer Devers
2-3-4
Not to go off topic but somewhat related as any huge fa signing this off-season could have larger and worse opportunity costs
I could see this years signing being Montgomery for 4 years at like $66 million and someone like Teoscar Hernandez on a 1 year deal
I think we are going to be mega active on the off-season trade market
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 17, 2023 10:26:57 GMT -5
Why you guys want bargains? We’re the goddamn Red Sox and the rotation sucks, give me two big names. I feel you here, but imagine taking this approach last year and ending up with a broken down Jacob DeGrom and Carlos Rodon. Exactly. This is the year. The pitching market last year for high-tier (expected to be #1 or #2) guys between 28-31 years old was like Carlos Rodon and.... honestly, couldn't tell you who else. The other guys that made up a majority of the list were Verlander/DeGrom/etc getting some of the highest AAV shorter term deals in history. Larger supply means not having to pay someone like Blake Snell, who I think will be looked at in similar fashion to Rodon (less electric last two seasons, but less injury prone) an absurd amount. I really do think Snell will be attainable at 6 years/$140-$150 million, and that is a full go in my book. And Yamamoto.. I don't care the cost.. Ownership, prove to us that you actually still care about the team that made FSG (FENWAY Sports Group) possible and what it has become today (I'll continue to repeat that ad nauseam haha) Yamamoto Snell Bello Sale Crawford/Houck In any order.. Bullpen becomes top 3 in baseball just by being able to put a couple of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford in the bullpen (and have them available in case of injuries). Your lineup is essentially set at this stage, but you may be able to upgrade at a position or two if you decide to trade a Verdugo/Pivetta/etc.. ALL free agent dollars should be going to two ace caliber starting pitchers. Period. Puts you into WS conversations instantly.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 17, 2023 10:51:45 GMT -5
Snell Montgomery Paxton Sale Bello in any order is fine with me. We reset the luxury tax. This is the year to give up the draft pick the minor league system looks amazing. In the same tier as a Snell and Montgomery (one top guy and one mid guy) I'd say the ideal outcome would be Yamamoto and Sonny Gray. Sonny wouldn't cost a lot and would be pretty effective. A rotation of Yamamoto, Sale, Bello, Paxton, Gray would be (in Larry David voice) Prettttayyy prettttayyyy prettay good. Also allows you to have oodles of depth in the rotation and bullpen.
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