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Post by manfred on Oct 5, 2023 14:17:38 GMT -5
Or he succeeds and *is* the guy with the magic touch? Not to rekindle any old arguments, but just out of curiosity: what's your theory for why Dombrowski got fired? Not whether you think it was right or not, but just, why did ownership decide to make that move? (Which was, at the time, considerably more shocking than the Bloom firing, as I recall.) Well, my honest answer is who knows? I *think* he was entirely in control, and they were cool with that as long as everything was great, but I suspect he went out on a limb with the Sale contract and the owners felt burned. Now he might have presented a vision of the future that meant them spending more, and they balked, pointing to that mistake. Best guess.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 5, 2023 14:34:28 GMT -5
People look at Dombrowski as the guy who won three division championships. But his more impressive accomplishment is taking the greatest collection of young talent in franchise history and reducing it to a three-year window. Here is a list of the trades Dombrowski made while with the Red Sox...Which of these trades do you specifically disagree with? www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.html
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 5, 2023 14:47:01 GMT -5
People look at Dombrowski as the guy who won three division championships. But his more impressive accomplishment is taking the greatest collection of young talent in franchise history and reducing it to a three-year window. Here is a list of the trades Dombrowski made while with the Red Sox...Which of these trades do you specifically disagree with? www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.htmlDon't get me wrong I think DD was fine and would probably have been fine if he had been retained but it wasn't the trades DD made but the bloated payroll and signings that made it impossible to duck under the LT without making a drastic cost cutting move. Which coincidentally is the opposite of what Bloom was doing and probably why Bloom was fired since Bloom seemed hesitant to give out long term deals.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 5, 2023 15:15:25 GMT -5
People look at Dombrowski as the guy who won three division championships. But his more impressive accomplishment is taking the greatest collection of young talent in franchise history and reducing it to a three-year window. Here is a list of the trades Dombrowski made while with the Red Sox...Which of these trades do you specifically disagree with? www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.htmlName literally one creative, outside-the-box move he ever made? I don’t actually think Dombrowski was the root of all evil. The development system stalled out under Cherington, which is part of the reason the pipeline dried up. But I will never understand why people are impressed by him handing David Price $217 million or lavishing riches upon the White Sox and Padres for Sale and Kimbrel. He paid $1.25 on the dollar over, and over and over again and never did a thing to keep the well from going dry.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 15:16:51 GMT -5
People look at Dombrowski as the guy who won three division championships. But his more impressive accomplishment is taking the greatest collection of young talent in franchise history and reducing it to a three-year window. Here is a list of the trades Dombrowski made while with the Red Sox...Which of these trades do you specifically disagree with? www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.htmlThe Thornburg deal was bad but not to the proportion it's been blown up to. Other than that I certainly dont object to the other deals. And I certainly dont see anybody on that list who would have mattered much in the past few years. That's not a bad trade percentage at all.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 15:20:39 GMT -5
Name literally one creative, outside-the-box move he ever made? I don’t actually think Dombrowski was the root of all evil. The development system stalled out under Cherington, which is part of the reason the pipeline dried up. But I will never understand why people are impressed by him handing David Price $217 million or lavishing riches upon the White Sox and Padres for Sale and Kimbrel. He paid $1.25 on the dollar over, and over and over again and never did a thing to keep the well from going dry. What out of the box creative move did Bloom make? The Renfroe for JBJ and prospects move? Alright that was creative, but was it actually good? Only if opening up a gaping hole in RF for prospects that really didnt pan out is considered good. He got a prospect to take on Ottavino but the prospect has amounted to about nothing. Creativity is good, but results are better. Sometimes a straight line gets you where you need to go faster than a bunch of zig zag or circular motions.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 15:33:50 GMT -5
Name literally one creative, outside-the-box move he ever made? I don’t actually think Dombrowski was the root of all evil. The development system stalled out under Cherington, which is part of the reason the pipeline dried up. But I will never understand why people are impressed by him handing David Price $217 million or lavishing riches upon the White Sox and Padres for Sale and Kimbrel. He paid $1.25 on the dollar over, and over and over again and never did a thing to keep the well from going dry. What riches did he lavish on the White Sox, though? Moncada has one really good year and has been a disappointment since. Kopech never became a top starter or a closer. He's been an enigma. Fact of the matter is that Bloom had he stayed would have had to throw big money at a starter or 2 and/or trade significant prospects to acquire a top pitcher. Just like the situation Dombrowski walked into, Bloom still would have had to acquire multiple front line starting pitchers because they're not in the system.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 5, 2023 15:35:08 GMT -5
Name literally one creative, outside-the-box move he ever made? I don’t actually think Dombrowski was the root of all evil. The development system stalled out under Cherington, which is part of the reason the pipeline dried up. But I will never understand why people are impressed by him handing David Price $217 million or lavishing riches upon the White Sox and Padres for Sale and Kimbrel. He paid $1.25 on the dollar over, and over and over again and never did a thing to keep the well from going dry. What out of the box creative move did Bloom make? The Renfroe for JBJ and prospects move? Alright that was creative, but was it actually good? Only if opening up a gaping hole in RF for prospects that really didnt pan out is considered good. He got a prospect to take on Ottavino but the prospect has amounted to about nothing. Creativity is good, but results are better. Sometimes a straight line gets you where you need to go faster than a bunch of zig zag or circular motions. Don't zag to Bloom! I don't care about Bloom! I do not disparage Dombrowski to make Bloom look good. I do it because he does not deserve the sterling reputation he has among some posters here.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 5, 2023 15:39:06 GMT -5
This thread makes me want to swallow a bullet for dinner
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 5, 2023 15:57:04 GMT -5
Name literally one creative, outside-the-box move he ever made? I don’t actually think Dombrowski was the root of all evil. The development system stalled out under Cherington, which is part of the reason the pipeline dried up. But I will never understand why people are impressed by him handing David Price $217 million or lavishing riches upon the White Sox and Padres for Sale and Kimbrel. He paid $1.25 on the dollar over, and over and over again and never did a thing to keep the well from going dry. What riches did he lavish on the White Sox, though? Moncada has one really good year and has been a disappointment since. Kopech never became a top starter or a closer. He's been an enigma. Fact of the matter is that Bloom had he stayed would have had to throw big money at a starter or 2 and/or trade significant prospects to acquire a top pitcher. Just like the situation Dombrowski walked into, Bloom still would have had to acquire multiple front line starting pitchers because they're not in the system. The whole thing about the prospects traded away never amounted to anything is a little too simplistic. When you're always throwing in an extra player so easily, as Dombrowski was wont to do, even if those guys don't pan out, that's less prospect fodder for other potential trades. If you lose 3-4 decent prospects each year because DD said what the hell, we'll add Logan Allen (or whoever), then Logan Allen cannot be traded for someone else. And who knows, some of those guys might actually develop in Boston's system (especially the non-pitchers during those years). This is a much overlooked perspective.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 16:15:57 GMT -5
What riches did he lavish on the White Sox, though? Moncada has one really good year and has been a disappointment since. Kopech never became a top starter or a closer. He's been an enigma. Fact of the matter is that Bloom had he stayed would have had to throw big money at a starter or 2 and/or trade significant prospects to acquire a top pitcher. Just like the situation Dombrowski walked into, Bloom still would have had to acquire multiple front line starting pitchers because they're not in the system. The whole thing about the prospects traded away never amounted to anything is a little too simplistic. When you're always throwing in an extra player so easily, as Dombrowski was wont to do, even if those guys don't pan out, that's less prospect fodder for other potential trades. If you lose 3-4 decent prospects each year because DD said what the hell, we'll add Logan Allen (or whoever), then Logan Allen cannot be traded for someone else. And who knows, some of those guys might actually develop in Boston's system (especially the non-pitchers during those years). This is a much overlooked perspective. I get your point but I think those kinds of players are that hard to replace in a system, somebody who is fringy and has a ceiling of up and down player. To me that's like saying we cant make a trade that'll improve us because Caleb Hamilton, who fits the criteria of this type of player, is too much to give up. I understand it in value terms but am not positive I'd hold up a deal for a guy like that. Now if a guys ceiling is higher than the archetype I mentioned, then yeah, I agree, should not be a throw-in. But I'm not sure that's the case. I'm of the mind that fringy up and down players are not hard to replace, just scan the waiver wire, but you have to be accurate in that assessment when trading- is the guy going to be fringy or does he truly have a higher ceiling? That's a judgment call for sure.
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 5, 2023 16:16:29 GMT -5
What riches did he lavish on the White Sox, though? Moncada has one really good year and has been a disappointment since. Kopech never became a top starter or a closer. He's been an enigma. Fact of the matter is that Bloom had he stayed would have had to throw big money at a starter or 2 and/or trade significant prospects to acquire a top pitcher. Just like the situation Dombrowski walked into, Bloom still would have had to acquire multiple front line starting pitchers because they're not in the system. The whole thing about the prospects traded away never amounted to anything is a little too simplistic. When you're always throwing in an extra player so easily, as Dombrowski was wont to do, even if those guys don't pan out, that's less prospect fodder for other potential trades. If you lose 3-4 decent prospects each year because DD said what the hell, we'll add Logan Allen (or whoever), then Logan Allen cannot be traded for someone else. And who knows, some of those guys might actually develop in Boston's system (especially the non-pitchers during those years). This is a much overlooked perspective. This is an excellent point. On top of that, teams know most prospects they trade for aren’t going to amount to anything. But if you have a guy who looks like he might have a chance of being half decent, other teams will take him for a useful-if-unexciting MLB piece that will have a lower salary than an equivalent player from the FA market. Edit: just to add on to 04071318’s take, Caleb Hamilton is not an equivalent to those guys. These guys project to be Caleb Hamilton-quality, but there’s enough there that you can see them being more. They probably will turn into AAAA depth, but they might turn into an MLB bench piece, which are nice to have around at the league minimum.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 5, 2023 16:30:44 GMT -5
The whole thing about the prospects traded away never amounted to anything is a little too simplistic. When you're always throwing in an extra player so easily, as Dombrowski was wont to do, even if those guys don't pan out, that's less prospect fodder for other potential trades. If you lose 3-4 decent prospects each year because DD said what the hell, we'll add Logan Allen (or whoever), then Logan Allen cannot be traded for someone else. And who knows, some of those guys might actually develop in Boston's system (especially the non-pitchers during those years). This is a much overlooked perspective. This is an excellent point. On top of that, teams know most prospects they trade for aren’t going to amount to anything. But if you have a guy who looks like he might have a chance of being half decent, other teams will take him for a useful-if-unexciting MLB piece that will have a lower salary than an equivalent player from the FA market. Edit: just to add on to 04071318’s take, Caleb Hamilton is not an equivalent to those guys. These guys project to be Caleb Hamilton-quality, but there’s enough there that you can see them being more. They probably will turn into AAAA depth, but they might turn into an MLB bench piece, which are nice to have around at the league minimum. Exactly! Caleb Hamilton is not even close to that type of player. Logan Allen, Javier Guerra, Mauricio Dubon are those type of players. And Basabe.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 19:01:12 GMT -5
This is an excellent point. On top of that, teams know most prospects they trade for aren’t going to amount to anything. But if you have a guy who looks like he might have a chance of being half decent, other teams will take him for a useful-if-unexciting MLB piece that will have a lower salary than an equivalent player from the FA market. Edit: just to add on to 04071318’s take, Caleb Hamilton is not an equivalent to those guys. These guys project to be Caleb Hamilton-quality, but there’s enough there that you can see them being more. They probably will turn into AAAA depth, but they might turn into an MLB bench piece, which are nice to have around at the league minimum. Exactly! Caleb Hamilton is not even close to that type of player. Logan Allen, Javier Guerra, Mauricio Dubon are those type of players. And Basabe. I get the point you're making. I just think that talent in the majors is kind of distributed like a pyramid and these guys at the bottom of the pyramid are much easier to find and replace. To Bloom's credit he found Reyes for practically nothing and he can pretty much do what Dubon does. The general point being that I woukdnt let a bottom of the pyramid type of guy stop me from getting somebody toward the top (with the school of thought being they are harder to find or replace).
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Post by manfred on Oct 5, 2023 19:10:49 GMT -5
People often say DD threw in an extra player… was it a tip? Do we have an example of a trade where the other team said “we’ll take those 2 prospects” and DD said,” no! Take these THREE prospects”?
If there is a criticism, it might be tunnel vision. He set his sights on a guy and paid what he had to. Then we would assume there are alternatives.
Sale, for example. I don’t think the ChiSox said just Moncada and DD said, hell, take Kopech, too. Now, maybe some other team offers a starter for just Moncada. Weee! We keep Kopech. But a) *does* anyone offer that? And b) do we like that arm as much as we like Sale?
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Post by asm19 on Oct 6, 2023 19:18:34 GMT -5
Is this some form of Monday morning quarterbacking/kicking someone on the way out the door, or were there actual concerns about 37 year old Kluber’s shoulder - because it’s a quite relevant distinction. It feels like there should be more follow up on this from the Boston media people insofar as you can learn about someone’s health record, because I don’t know if this is on Bloom or if it’s a front office person exaggerating after the fact.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 6, 2023 19:31:52 GMT -5
Iffy shoulder imaging is the default for a 37 year old pitcher. Does not speak well of the anonymous person that they're telling everyone who will listen about every time they disagreed with boss on a player evaluation and were right.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 6, 2023 21:36:01 GMT -5
Iffy shoulder imaging is the default for a 37 year old pitcher. Does not speak well of the anonymous person that they're telling everyone who will listen about every time they disagreed with boss on a player evaluation and were right.I have no problem with it because as a fan I want to know such things. If an organizaitonal source provided inside information on Bloom's thought processes during the 2020-21 off-season and how his decision making that winter led to the nice 2021 run, I'd eat that up too. The alternative to organizational sources being able to speak anonymously is fans knowing only what each regieme wants us to know. Just like the alternative to news reporters having access to anonymous souces would be an electorate that relies on government press releases for information.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 6, 2023 22:40:51 GMT -5
People look at Dombrowski as the guy who won three division championships. But his more impressive accomplishment is taking the greatest collection of young talent in franchise history and reducing it to a three-year window. Here is a list of the trades Dombrowski made while with the Red Sox...Which of these trades do you specifically disagree with? www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.htmlThis really sums up why Dave Dombrowski is such a polarizing figure. When I look through this list of trades I see mostly what look like shrewd trades for key players in a championship team. On the other hand when I do the math I get this: Incoming : 41 bWAR; Payroll: $285+ million Outgoing: 50 bWAR; Payroll 110+ million (+ indicates payroll not documented in BB Ref; wouldn’t change basic numbers) Kind of odd, with so many writers covering the Red Sox, none of them ever thought to do this. BB Reference and Fangraphs make it so easy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2023 23:05:31 GMT -5
This really sums up why Dave Dombrowski is such a polarizing figure. When I look through this list of trades I see mostly what look like shrewd trades for key players in a championship team. On the other hand when I do the math I get this: Incoming : 41 bWAR; Payroll: $285+ million Outgoing: 50 bWAR; Payroll 110+ million (+ indicates payroll not documented in BB Ref; wouldn’t change basic numbers) Kind of odd, with so many writers covering the Red Sox, none of them ever thought to do this. BB Reference and Fangraphs make it so easy. I'll play devils advocate here. I'm sure they took a loss on the Thornburg/Shaw deal but what trades did they take a loss on? Maybe bWAR isnt the right stat to evaluate the deals. Timing and need should be part of the equation too rather than sine blanket WAR stat, but I'm curious, what trades are generating the negative figures and in reality was the trade bad?
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Post by congusgambler33 on Oct 7, 2023 1:17:49 GMT -5
I think that the 2019 offseason was a big reason that he was looked at differently going fwd. He made that one blockbuster deal to get Colten Brewer for Esteban Quiroz and that was it and in the season of 2019 he only made peripheral trades, in other words he basically stood pat and it was a failure on his part. I guess he couldn't do too much with all the previous trades strapping the top 10 in the system.
The ownership could not afford to keep him after that. Enter Chaim Bloom...Build the system back up with decent draft picks for 3 years and get shown the door and the cycle starts again. On another note..I can't wait to see who Baltimore and Tampa Bay get as competitive balance picks. they are so important for those 2 teams to keep up with the rest.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Oct 7, 2023 5:17:39 GMT -5
This really sums up why Dave Dombrowski is such a polarizing figure. When I look through this list of trades I see mostly what look like shrewd trades for key players in a championship team. On the other hand when I do the math I get this: Incoming : 41 bWAR; Payroll: $285+ million Outgoing: 50 bWAR; Payroll 110+ million (+ indicates payroll not documented in BB Ref; wouldn’t change basic numbers) Kind of odd, with so many writers covering the Red Sox, none of them ever thought to do this. BB Reference and Fangraphs make it so easy. I understand sabremetrics turned a generation (or two) of fans into payroll efficiency uber alles believers, but it is always surprising that fans of a big market team don't quickly recognize that for a big market win now team to trade 50 future wins for 41 more expensive wins is really good. I thought the wins discrepancy would be worse. Never forget that this kind of analysis is based on the mistaken belief that acquiring a player who puts up 5 WAR over 2 years is a loss if you trade multiple players who put up 6 WAR over 6 years. Any financial or value analysis that is uncapable of assigning a meaningful value to packing lots of WAR into a single roster spot is woefully inadequate for the job it is purporting to do.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 7, 2023 5:46:45 GMT -5
This really sums up why Dave Dombrowski is such a polarizing figure. When I look through this list of trades I see mostly what look like shrewd trades for key players in a championship team. On the other hand when I do the math I get this: Incoming : 41 bWAR; Payroll: $285+ million Outgoing: 50 bWAR; Payroll 110+ million (+ indicates payroll not documented in BB Ref; wouldn’t change basic numbers) Kind of odd, with so many writers covering the Red Sox, none of them ever thought to do this. BB Reference and Fangraphs make it so easy. I understand sabremetrics turned a generation (or two) of fans into payroll efficiency uber alles believers, but it is always surprising that fans of a big market team don't quickly recognize that for a big market win now team to trade 50 future wins for 41 more expensive wins is really good. I thought the wins discrepancy would be worse. Never forget that this kind of analysis is based on the mistaken belief that acquiring a player who puts up 5 WAR over 2 years is a loss if you trade multiple players who put up 6 WAR over 6 years. Any financial or value analysis that is uncapable of assigning a meaningful value to packing lots of WAR into a single roster spot is woefully inadequate for the job it is purporting to do. The payroll figures are significant too, though. This is one of the frustrating things about the Kimbrel trade, for instance: they gave up the prospects for a player who was already making an 8-figure salary. They could have made a decent free agent addition for that money and kept the prospects instead.
In any case, Dombrowski went all in, the payoff was two 93-win seasons and one 108-win season and a World Series title, and the cost was to accelerate the team's decline so that they were already headed downhill by 2019. Maybe it was worth it. But you do hear quite a lot from people that Dombrowski never gave up significant value in his trades and thus earned the Red Sox the best of both worlds; but 50 WAR headed out the door calls that into question.
(Meanwhile, basically zero people who think Dombrowski did a good job are sanguine about the fact that the Red Sox went into decline after winning the World Series - even though that is the inevitable consequence of the very go-for-it-now approach they claim to support.)
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Oct 7, 2023 6:32:21 GMT -5
I understand sabremetrics turned a generation (or two) of fans into payroll efficiency uber alles believers, but it is always surprising that fans of a big market team don't quickly recognize that for a big market win now team to trade 50 future wins for 41 more expensive wins is really good. I thought the wins discrepancy would be worse. Never forget that this kind of analysis is based on the mistaken belief that acquiring a player who puts up 5 WAR over 2 years is a loss if you trade multiple players who put up 6 WAR over 6 years. Any financial or value analysis that is uncapable of assigning a meaningful value to packing lots of WAR into a single roster spot is woefully inadequate for the job it is purporting to do. The payroll figures are significant too, though. This is one of the frustrating things about the Kimbrel trade, for instance: they gave up the prospects for a player who was already making an 8-figure salary. They could have made a decent free agent addition for that money and kept the prospects instead.
In any case, Dombrowski went all in, the payoff was two 93-win seasons and one 108-win season and a World Series title, and the cost was to accelerate the team's decline so that they were already headed downhill by 2019. Maybe it was worth it. But you do hear quite a lot from people that Dombrowski never gave up significant value in his trades and thus earned the Red Sox the best of both worlds; but 50 WAR headed out the door calls that into question.
(Meanwhile, basically zero people who think Dombrowski did a good job are sanguine about the fact that the Red Sox went into decline after winning the World Series - even though that is the inevitable consequence of the very go-for-it-now approach they claim to support.)
50 WAR out the door is a fact (I assume). At the extremes it could be 50 one WAR seasons or it could be 10 five WAR seasons. Any analysis that says those are the same is inadequate. It's analysis that certainly does not understand how fans will react to those very different "equivalent" facts. Ultimately I think the "damage" that Dombrowski did to the payroll is less about him and more about ownership. The payroll when DD was fired was a problem for Bloom because the Sox spending went way down. That's ownership. If the Sox continued to have a top 3 payroll throughout 2020-2023, they could have maintained a more competitive run. This ownership group won championships while outspending everybody except the Yankees and then suddenly stopped and to a certain segment of fans successfully blamed it on their employee, DD. It's an astoundingly devious bit of spin, but here we are.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2023 7:30:30 GMT -5
I'd still like to see the WAR that went out the door so I can see if it was costly or reasonable.
I mean is Pearce for Espinal a loss in WAR, because if it is, then how meaningful is that stat in evaluating the Red Sox circumstances?
I get the point about taking on Kimbrel's money and sending the prospects, but let's be real world here. They gave up Margot who is basically a 4th OF, Logan Allen who was at best a depth starter who gets pounded in the majors and lands back in the minors, a converted reliever who did the same and a utility man that didnt stick. But that's too much. Think of all the trades they could have made that they didnt for these amazing prospects. I'm sure they could have got Cy Young award winners or batting champs or maybe even a major league utility player. I think the opportunities lost over the loss of the prospects wasnt as huge as some anticipated.
Then look at what Kimbrel was prior to the Sox acquiring him. He was merely the best closer in the game over the previous 5 years, dominant with Atlanta. As it was, Kimbrel hurt his thumb in 2016 and wasnt as good, was healthy and dominant in 2017, and then began to decline in 2018. Closer was also a position of need in 2016 as Uehara had aged out. So if I had a chance to get a premier closer for a future 4th OF and three fringe highly fungible players I do that deal in a heartbeat. Did the bwar stat kill the Sox on that deal?
For the talk of lowering the payroll, what did that get the Sox? They lowered it, became irrelevant, grew the farm system well because they drafted much higher and never traded anybody, yet are woefully short in the pitching department and still will be left to have to spend huge money and/or trade from the farm to get front line starting pitching because for all the strides the system has made, front line pitching wont be coming from the farm any time soon if it does at all, which ironically was he situation Dombrowski walked into, so here we are again back at this point in the cycle.
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