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Post by larrycook on May 12, 2013 10:19:09 GMT -5
I think people are not looking closely enough at the underlying issues with Coyle. The power is fantastic, but he continues to not walk enough and strike out too much. I'm not saying he's not doing well, but unless you think he is the next coming of Giancarlo Stanton and can hit 50 home runs in the majors, it doesn't seem like he's doing enough things well to warrant consideration for an early promotion. On the other hand, Cecchini is walking more than he's striking out and showing somewhat improved power. In addition, he's nine months older, so it makes some sense to put him in a more difficult position. Agreed, Cecchini's approach at the plate is more advanced than almost any hitters in the system (except maybe JBJ). In fact, what he's doing in Salem right now reminds me a lot of what Jackie did there last year, but with even more pop. Coyle, on the other hand does have a lot more holes in his swing, but he has proven worth for a promotion soon being there for over a full season now, and producing good results this year. Both probably will be in Portland at some point this year, but Cecchini is the more ready of the two and clearly the better prospect. I think he could/should be the #2 prospect in the system by the time the year's done and JBJ/Webster have both graduated from prospect status. He could possibly be a Top 50 prospect in baseball for 2014, whereas Coyle probably isn't breaking the Top 100 unless he hits 30+ HRs this year. I agree. Cecchini is really seeing the ball well and able to get to pitches on both the inside and outside of the plate. (Unlike Bradley who fears pitches on the inside on the plate.) But as hot as he is now and as easy as he is making it look now, I would like to see him go through the teams a couple more times in order to see how the teams adjust to pitching him and how he adjusts to their adjustments. By the middle to end of June, if he is still doing well, he should be promoted then. PS: Is anybody else concerned that Barnes is developing a nasty habit of occasionally leaving balls up in the middle of the strike zone and now hitters are taking those pitches and depositing them in the parking lot. I swear he has left more pitches up in May then he did all of last year. Hopefully it is just something he is working through.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 12, 2013 13:25:42 GMT -5
So where does Cecchini fall on the top 100, if he reaches Portland by late summer and does okay there? Is he pushing a top 50 prospects if he settles at .330/.420/.540 (all below where he is now) and gets to AA as a 22 year old in July/August? That would put him very close to the JBJ track stats/age wise. With the elite defense, Bradley was #30, so Cecchini could be 50-60 range.
(JBJ was born 4/19/1990, Garin was born 4/20/1991)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 12, 2013 17:10:44 GMT -5
What does it matter? If he ranks poorly, I'm sure it'll just be proof of how Keith Law/Jason Parks/whoever is a pompous idiot who hasn't seen him enough and has criminally underrated him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 12, 2013 22:31:11 GMT -5
Nice to see Martin get the first call-up of the year (first real one at least).
BTW, Coyle over his last six: 1 for 23, .043/.115/.087. Promotion not necessarily imminent, nor should it be. (Of course, BABIP is .059, so a lot of bad luck here.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 12, 2013 22:38:07 GMT -5
(Of course, BABIP is .059, so a lot of bad luck here.) Well, between the home runs and strikeouts, that's a sample size of roughly three balls in play.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 12, 2013 22:50:45 GMT -5
(Of course, BABIP is .059, so a lot of bad luck here.) Well, between the home runs and strikeouts, that's a sample size of roughly three balls in play. Not in that span. 7 k's, 0 HR, 2 BB and a SF, so that's 1 hit on 17 balls in play.
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Post by elguapo on May 12, 2013 23:00:41 GMT -5
BTW, Coyle over his last six: 1 for 23, .043/.115/.087. Promotion not necessarily imminent, nor should it be. (Of course, BABIP is .059, so a lot of bad luck here.) Coyle may have a bright future but he is still quite young and (even if the HR binge continues) high-A is a fine place to spend the bulk or all of this season. To use a mediocre benchmark, Brentz was a year older when he hit 30hr with a 25% K rate between Greenville & Salem.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 13, 2013 9:09:33 GMT -5
Well, between the home runs and strikeouts, that's a sample size of roughly three balls in play. Not in that span. 7 k's, 0 HR, 2 BB and a SF, so that's 1 hit on 17 balls in play. 7 Ks in 24 PAs... What's the main cause of his strike outs? Poor pitch recognition? Bad discipline? Too big of a swing?
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Post by widewordofsport on May 13, 2013 15:38:17 GMT -5
Just curious on the top 100 question, EVERYONE SETTLE DOWN.
FWIW, John Sickels really liked him going into the year, believed in the power. He had him 4th, with B/B+ grade.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 19, 2013 7:26:47 GMT -5
I really hope the Sox get aggressive with Cecchini. I don't want to see a year by year approach with him.
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Post by awall on May 20, 2013 7:07:11 GMT -5
Me too, I'd love to see him when the Sea Dogs play in Manchester the end of June.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 20, 2013 10:13:07 GMT -5
"high-A is a fine place to spend the bulk or all of this season. To use a mediocre benchmark, Brentz was a year older when he hit 30hr with a 25% K rate between Greenville & Salem."
You'll always have that comparing a HS and college draftee. A college player may be 3 years older, but only 1 or 2 "advanced". But you run into the Rule 5 draft, and start burning options. Almanzar is a good example. He's a year younger than Brentz was at AA, but they are both may have to be R5D protected, and start burning options. Being younger because of age only gets you so far. Coyle can still have a full 2014 at AA before being added to the 40 man, but in general I don't like the line of reasoning comparing age of players.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 21, 2013 20:34:16 GMT -5
FWIW, age doesn't have a ton to do with when a player is eligible for Rule 5, if that's what you're saying. It only matters in the sense that if the player is 18 or younger when he signs, it's 5 years from that contract, and if he's 19+, it's 4 years.
Almanzar isn't really a great example, considering he spent four seasons between Low A and High A. He really should have made it to Double-A by last year, at least.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 22, 2013 1:27:48 GMT -5
I should have been clearer. Let me try to make it even less clear:
Even a pretty advanced HS pitcher is 19/20 in Greenville, and a college pitcher is starting at 22 in Greenville. Everything Cody Kukuk does is at a younger age than Brian Johnson, but they both are Rule 5 eligible after 2015, and should either of them perform, they may be in direct competition for a 40 man spot. The counter is that Kukuk might not be added/taken in Rule 5, and he may still be growing etc, but I do think you need to consider a combination of both age and number of years pro.
Almanzar was really young, so it may be a confounder. I'd be more impressed with him if he was 22 right out of college and hitting like that at AA is what I'm saying. I think.
PS... Congrats on a hell of a week, Chris.
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Post by hughlangin on May 22, 2013 11:35:46 GMT -5
What about Mookie Betts? any chance he gets a promotion this year? I know he is still young, but if he keeps on having at bats like he is now I kinda feel that it makes sense to reward him and let him fill in the void if Sean Coyle gets the call up to Portland. I wonder if Almanzar/Cecchini kinda play by that same tune as well. I understand that someone may end up getting less playing time, traded, or shuffled around in some other way but I guess that is a different conversation. It will be interesting to see how these things play out.
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Post by hammerhead on May 22, 2013 14:11:03 GMT -5
I wonder if the fact that Vitek is moving to the outfield means that a Cecchini call-up is around the corner.
I'm not sure what other reason there is for Vitek to be playing the outfield other than they simply have to try something just to get him going. He certainly doesn't have the bat for Leftfield..... but then again he didn't have the bat for a corner infield spot either.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 22, 2013 15:20:44 GMT -5
I wonder if the fact that Vitek is moving to the outfield means that a Cecchini call-up is around the corner. I'm not sure what other reason there is for Vitek to be playing the outfield other than they simply have to try something just to get him going. He certainly doesn't have the bat for Leftfield..... but then again he didn't have the bat for a corner infield spot either. I have admittedly been out of the loop for a bit, but who said he's moving to the outfield? Got a link? Looked and can't find one. Vitek has been playing zero 3B anyway - he's been DH'ing almost exclusively - so no, this wouldn't tell us anything regarding Cecchini unless Vitek were to suddenly start playing in the field a lot. And if true, it'd probably have something to do w/ his back/intercostal, which has got to still be bothering him. I can't see any other situation in which Tony Thomas receives regular playing time and he doesn't.
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Post by GyIantosca on May 22, 2013 15:22:16 GMT -5
I hope Vitek invested that bonus wisely.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 22, 2013 16:33:36 GMT -5
I hope all these kids invest their bonuses wisely. You can never tell who is going to make it enough to get a good contract beyond their arb years.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 24, 2013 9:10:43 GMT -5
Garin called and said he was ready for AA pitching. Said the major legue club ay have a hole at third base so he wanted to be fast tracked.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 24, 2013 12:52:21 GMT -5
Maybe Vitek needs to be send down like Bradley was when he started to stumble. Difference is, of course, Jackie has a lot of upside and will eventually recove his position on the Sox roster.
I'm not sure what's ahead for Kobrin. He's now below the Mendoza line with .196/.271/.278 numbers. This, on top of a poor (albeit injury marred) 2012 season. His best season was in 2011 at Salem with .281/350/.372. Still, very little power for a corner infielder/DH. A stint back in High A might help restore his confidence, and, at least, improve his trade value somewhat.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 24, 2013 12:58:14 GMT -5
I'm not a huge Vitek as a prospect fan, but I have to think his intercostal muscle issue is lingering and he's either in pain or limited in his motion. Might be better off taking some more time off. He may have ground to make up, but if he keeps going like this, he's going to keep slipping.
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Post by Guidas on May 24, 2013 13:24:38 GMT -5
Garin called and said he was ready for AA pitching. Said the major legue club ay have a hole at third base so he wanted to be fast tracked. I'd love to send this kid to AAA for two weeks right now and see how he responds. His control of the strike zone and bat speed are both very impressive.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 24, 2013 14:38:25 GMT -5
I mentioned it in another thread, but I've come around on Cecchini promotion. I don't think he'll tear up AA, but even if he's just 'hot', but I do wonder if having him sit around not getting anything to hit will not help him much (feel free to refute that).
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Post by sibbysisti on May 24, 2013 14:48:35 GMT -5
I'm not a huge Vitek as a prospect fan, but I have to think his intercostal muscle issue is lingering and he's either in pain or limited in his motion. Might be better off taking some more time off. He may have ground to make up, but if he keeps going like this, he's going to keep slipping. If this is the case why isn't he on the DL?
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