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Post by chrisfromnc on May 2, 2013 10:12:34 GMT -5
I was just looking at the transactions pages from this year and 2012. Matt Barnes was the first promotion last year on April 30th. Unless I missed something there hasn't been a promotion within the Red Sox system this season. I was thinking a thread discussing who is most worthy of an early promotion this year might have some interest to the community. I have seen posts in individual player threads touching on the fact that a guy might be a candidate for such an early promotion. What I'd like to hear is people more knowledgeable than me discuss that worthiness in relation to the other prospects.
I took a quick look at the Top 40 from our site. My own list of those who should probably be in the discussion is
1) Cecchini 2) Owens 3) Ranaudo 4) Coyle 5) Almanzar
Should Brandon Workman be in the conversation? For the position guys, I did not consider much if they are blocked by a significant prospect at the next level. I was more wondering about who's performance, regardless of that, warrants promotion at this early stage. So maybe there are two separate issues. Who deserves the first promotion? Who will actually get the first promotion? Maybe it is the same guy. My own relatively uniformed guess is Ranaudo. I'm basing that a lot on the fact that he is at Portland again and his been throwing the ball great.
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Post by Matt Huegel on May 2, 2013 10:21:20 GMT -5
IMO, the only guy on your list who could get a promotion anytime soon is Coyle. Only issue there is Meneses, but they could figure something out.
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Post by jmei on May 2, 2013 10:32:20 GMT -5
Great thread. I agree that Coyle is the only candidate of those you listed who might get promoted in the next few weeks since he's the only one really repeating his level (Ranaudo (37 IP) and Workman (25 IP) had only very brief stints in Portland in 2012). Barnes last year was a special case since, as a polished college arm, he probably shouldn't have started in Greenville in the first place. Coyle could see a promotion by the end of the month if he keeps hitting, and Ranaudo and Workman could be up around the ASB (probably Cecchini, too, if he continues to hit). I do think Owens will spend most of the season in Salem.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 2, 2013 10:35:17 GMT -5
Ranaudo was injured most of last year. I doubt he gets promoted anytime soon. It's his first REAL success as a pro. Let's see how he does second time through the league. Hopefully he can keep this up and gain some momentum.
Owens is pitching well, but he's young for the league. Again, let's see how does second time through the league. It's also very early. He could easily spend most of the year in Salem.
I think Cechhini is the one most deserving - and most likely. Although I think it's closer to the end of the month. I know there's Almanzar and Shaw already in Portland, but I don't see why they cannot have a rotation with those guys and DH with Almanzar playing some 1B and some 3B.
ADD: It's been said here before, and bears keeping in mind. While we can measure performance in whatever way available, sabermetric stats, scouting report, etc, each player is given things they need to improve upon in order to move up. We don't really know what those items are for each player.
It's also hard to say how the players are doing in xst, but a promotion from there to Greenville might be in order. That seems to be the weakest of the teams in terms of prospect talent. Margot?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 2, 2013 11:03:34 GMT -5
Henry Owens is still so young and, I believe, needs a full year hopefully dominating at high A. I'm really pleased with his improved command, but he needs to keep improving his stamina. One of my top follows every week, but I hope he stays in Salem, and then if he is still is doing so well in AA next year....push him. With the depth and prospects we have produced from high A to AAA, moving up is going to be a little more difficult. Guys like Michael Almanzar have earned the opportunity to play every day.
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Post by dogsfan on May 2, 2013 11:09:42 GMT -5
I doubt Cecchini gets called up soon because Portland already has two third basemen in Vitek and Almanzar. I believe Shaw, Almanzar and Vitek all deserve to play every day, and Cecchini should not take that away.
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Post by tonyblanco on May 2, 2013 11:13:38 GMT -5
I think Cecchini has to be at the top of the list because he's not just excelling, he's dominating the level. If May is even in the same stratosphere as April, then he's simply forcing the issue, regardless of what else has to happen in terms of Portland playing time and organizational demotions/promotions (within reason.)
Pitching wise, Workman makes the most sense for me. Although he's only made 10 starts for Portland, he's been healthy since he signed, so he's logged close to 300 innings professionally. With another month he'll be at 15 AA starts, basically half a season, which would be enough of a sample size to decide he's ready to be challenged again. I don't think it's out of the question for him to be considered major league depth this year IF he can prove over a handful of starts that he can get AAA hitters out. There's no rush, but in another month I don't see a reason not to promote him given his age, reasonable professional experience level, and positive scouting reports.
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Post by njsox on May 2, 2013 12:13:20 GMT -5
I think Cecchini has to be at the top of the list because he's not just excelling, he's dominating the level. If May is even in the same stratosphere as April, then he's simply forcing the issue, regardless of what else has to happen in terms of Portland playing time and organizational demotions/promotions (within reason.) Pitching wise, Workman makes the most sense for me. Although he's only made 10 starts for Portland, he's been healthy since he signed, so he's logged close to 300 innings professionally. With another month he'll be at 15 AA starts, basically half a season, which would be enough of a sample size to decide he's ready to be challenged again. I don't think it's out of the question for him to be considered major league depth this year IF he can prove over a handful of starts that he can get AAA hitters out. There's no rush, but in another month I don't see a reason not to promote him given his age, reasonable professional experience level, and positive scouting reports. I agree 100% with these 2 guys. The sooner the better for Workman, I think it's about time we get a little aggressive with his placement. If Cecchini continues to dominate he should be moved at the end of May. Though a corresponding Almanzar move may have to accompany a Cecchini move so we may not see this until the end of June.
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Post by elguapo on May 2, 2013 12:47:35 GMT -5
Also Britton, Martin, Shaw.... depending what they do in the next month.
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Post by dmaineah on May 2, 2013 13:19:20 GMT -5
Britton, He has more then 20 Games started & over 100 innings at AA. He is already on the 40 man roster & with Breslow & Morales struggling to get back I think he should be moved up and continue to start at AAA, he could be a valuable arm for a short stint as a spot starter or in the bullpen if needed. We should see how he fares against higher competition. Hopefully Aceves is moved soon to make room for him.
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Post by hammerhead on May 2, 2013 13:53:31 GMT -5
I think Christian Vasquez will be in Pawtucket before the All-star break if he maintains his current offensive production (another HR today). He simply is too good defensively not to be in the catching conversation if there is an injury at the big league level. He made a mark in Spring Training and I think the glowing reviews so far are enough to warrant a call-up to Pawtucket.
It would be a luxury to keep Cecchini in Salem , but if he's hitting over .400 in mid/late May then you almost have to call him up even though he was only at Greenville just last year. Ranaudo will be called up in my opinion as soon as there is an opening in the Pawtucket rotation. There's no need to waste any more bullets in AA. I know people will say he only has blah blah AA innings with a 4.50 ERA , but he did spend an abridged year there last season and even though the innings weren't logged it impacts his learning curve.
I don't see Owens being called up this year, unless he is unhittable for a truely extended period.
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Post by elguapo on May 2, 2013 14:07:26 GMT -5
I like Vazquez at Portland for nearly the full year. He's only 22 and could stand a full season developing his hitting. Besides, we have 2 strong catchers at AAA & even if one is shipped out, I'd rather not see Vazquez splitting time. If they need him for a major league stint, no problem - the AA affiliate is two hours away from Boston.
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Post by wskeleton76 on May 2, 2013 16:01:16 GMT -5
I think there is only one guy who should be promoted soon. He is Cecchini. He won't learn a lot in single A.
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Post by hammerhead on May 2, 2013 16:27:08 GMT -5
I like Vazquez at Portland for nearly the full year. He's only 22 and could stand a full season developing his hitting. Besides, we have 2 strong catchers at AAA & even if one is shipped out, I'd rather not see Vazquez splitting time. If they need him for a major league stint, no problem - the AA affiliate is two hours away from Boston. I don't get it, you think Vazquez is ready for a major league stint, but not AAA. I agree there is no rush, but if he is the best option for Boston in the case of a rash of catching injuries, then he should be in Pawtucket, not being shuttled between Boston and Portland. If he's good enough for even a minute in Boston, then he's good enough for AAA. If the Scouts think he's ready neither Butler nor Lavarnway will stand in his way.
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 2, 2013 16:38:42 GMT -5
My thoughts on a few of these guys:
Cecchini: Scenario 1: He keeps hitting like he is (.400/.500/.600 type line)for another 2 to 4 weeks. Odds: 10% Promotion: Before June 1
Scenario 2: He continues to hit, but at a more modest rate. Odds: 70% Promotion: Sometime in July
Scenario 3: He regresses significantly. Odds: 20% Promotion: N/A
Owens: Scenario 1: He produces at or near the rate he is at now. Odds: 25% Promotion: Sometime in July
Scenario 2: He regresses modestly, his walk rate increases, he has a handful of bad outings. Odds: 75% Promotion: N/A
Ranaudo: Scenario 1: He continues to pitch like he has. Odds: 20% Promotion: Before June 1
Scenario 2: He continues to look very good, but has some bumps in the road. Odds: 60% Promotion: Sometime in July
Scenario 3: He regresses significantly. Odds: 20% Promotion: N/A
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Post by ikonos on May 2, 2013 17:03:21 GMT -5
There was a rumor that Sox are looking to upgrade at C by trading Salty. If that is true and if they dont bring back a C, then it could be Lavarnway getting the call up opening a sport at PawSox. I could see some phantom promotions to bump up the "perceived" trade value of some guys like Alamanzar.
Even though Cecchini is hot, IIRC the Sox want position players to get atleast 300 AB or so at each level before they consider him for a promotion. So that might delay him a bit.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 2, 2013 17:33:27 GMT -5
Barnes was started way low to ease him into pro pitching. There's no prospect like that this year, so IMO, it's kind of a faulty way to look at it. When JBJ hit his way to Portland is a more fair comparison.
And I think Cecchini will be treated like Bogaerts. When the pitchers adjust, he'll struggle, and when he shows the ability to adjust, he'll be bumped up. The FO really hasn't been aggressive with him at all, and given they won't want to add him to the 40 man after the year, probably won't start now.
I do think that if they don't trade Britton, he gets to Pawtucket. Too many starters will be pushing their way to the 40 man, and he's going to have to have some AA success to show he belongs.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 2, 2013 17:38:06 GMT -5
Workman might have to get the pitch limits relaxed and show he can hold his stuff deeper into games. Someone suggested he made some mechanical fixes to help that, and if that's true, I could see him in Pawtucket. But really the system is aligned pretty good, and I think there is little need to promote unless Cecchini is just absurdly raking through June.
Marrero is another one who could push for a promotion by the end of the summer, if Bogaerts and Iglesias each move up.
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Post by pkelly491 on May 2, 2013 17:43:01 GMT -5
I would like to see Cecchini and Coyle in Portland sometime by July, both are very deserving and could play at that level.
Vitek is not even a prospect IMO anymore, but Almanzar and Shaw are. With Cecchini in Portland they do something like this.
3B ------- Cecchini 80% Almanzar 10% Vitek 10%
1B ------- Shaw 50% Almanzar 50%
DH ------- Shaw 40% Almanzar 30% Cecchini 20% Vitek 10%
Or something like that. The bigger issue would be getting Coyle any PT with Bogaerts and Meneses both playing well.
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Post by okin15 on May 2, 2013 18:05:11 GMT -5
Despite all the good play, there aren't a lot of guys who are both dominating aaaaand old or experienced for their level. I think you won't see any promotions until the all-star break except Cecchini if he continues to produce at this prodigious rate. All of Coyle, Ranaudo, Workman, Almanzar and Owens feel like "prove it to me" type players, rather than ones where we are simply confirming our expectations. Like WideWord said, it's going to take a consistent spectacular performance to make it happen.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on May 2, 2013 18:33:19 GMT -5
IMO, the only guy on your list who could get a promotion anytime soon is Coyle. Only issue there is Meneses, but they could figure something out. DH, 2B when Coyle rests, SS when Xander rests and hell even third base when either Almanzar rests or is at first.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 2, 2013 18:52:43 GMT -5
Barnes, a college kid going from A to A+, isn't a good comp for most of these guys. That's one of the smallest jumps in levels in the minors. The one most similar is Brian Johnson, and he'd be in line for an early promotion, but he hasn't exactly earned it, yet. Still, tho, he may not need more than a few good outings to get bumped up, so I'll put him in as a dark horse candidate ... but I guess I agree with Coyle for the reasons others have stated.
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Post by elguapo on May 2, 2013 19:17:33 GMT -5
I don't get it, you think Vazquez is ready for a major league stint, but not AAA. He's 5th on the depth chart but if they needed him, yes, he'd be fine as the backup C. I think he could handle AAA right now but you don't always promote a prospect the second he can handle it.
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Post by afineline on May 2, 2013 23:53:59 GMT -5
It's been said here before, and bears keeping in mind. While we can measure performance in whatever way available, sabermetric stats, scouting report, etc, each player is given things they need to improve upon in order to move up. We don't really know what those items are for each player. It's also hard to say how the players are doing in xst, but a promotion from there to Greenville might be in order. That seems to be the weakest of the teams in terms of prospect talent. Margot? would be nice to get info from XST
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Post by wskeleton76 on May 3, 2013 6:01:06 GMT -5
I am against promoting Vazquez soon. His bat speed is mediocre. He needs to learn how to deal with hard stuff. Then AA is the best place for him. I think he will figure out by shortening his swing. He is said to be a hard worker and smart kid.
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