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2023-2024 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 18, 2024 23:42:39 GMT -5
Meyer is the one driving the car in the union even if Tony Clark is ahead of him in the org chart
The players did so bad in the last CBA. They fought hard for the draft lottery, which predictably hasn't changed team behavior in any way that matters to players. They get very animated by service time manipulation, which effects a very small number of economically successful players, and so they fought for the PPI (which teams have been honoring even though the math does not really add up). And then they settled for awful luxury tax numbers and a playoff system that has noticeably disincentivized spending.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Mar 19, 2024 6:04:25 GMT -5
Jon Heyman on last ditch talks between the Yankees and Snell: “The Yankees and Snell’s agent, Scott Boras, conducted renewed talks over the past few days, but they never got close to a deal after trying several avenues to try to blunt the 110 percent, fourth-tier tax the Yankees are confronting as a team above the final $297 million threshold. […] Boras and the Yankees were trying to devise creative ways to lessen the tax, but ultimately he was going to be quite expensive for the Yankees since they are one of three teams over the fourth-tier tax, with no obvious way to cut salary. The Yankees will continue to pursue starting pitching but their options are limited, particularly since they are even less confident Jordan Montgomery, the top remaining free agent, is interested in returning to The Bronx.” It really seems like if not for the Steve Cohen tax, Blake Snell would probably be a Yankee. nypost.com/2024/03/18/sports/blake-snell-lands-with-giants-on-two-year-62-million-deal/
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 19, 2024 6:42:09 GMT -5
I expect the Yankees to sign Clevinger or someone of that sort but even at this point if they do he's probably not pitching the first month of the season and they're going to have to make due with a rather lackluster rotation either way with Clevinger until Cole comes back if he even does which is a big if.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 19, 2024 7:32:13 GMT -5
And you didn't even mention their biggest investment of the offseason. It's weird. On the one hand, it's quite a coup to come away with that much talent without having to commit to any long-term dead money. On the other hand, after all these moves they're still gonna project to like 84 wins and a very slim shot at winning their division.
Do you mean the Korean CF they signed? Yes. They guaranteed Lee nearly as much money as they did to Snell and Chapman combined ($113 vs. $116 million). Lee also has the highest Steamer projection of any of them; lower by ZiPS though.
It looks like the Snell signing bumped their fangraphs projection up to 83.2 wins, and playoff odds are up tp 44% with a 9% chance of winning the division. Baseball is a sport where a months-long free agency saga that ends in a nine-figure contract for a superstar can net the team two extra wins over the course of a season, or a couple of balls taking a funny bounce off the edge of the grass can have the same effect.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 19, 2024 7:41:45 GMT -5
Do you mean the Korean CF they signed? Yes. They guaranteed Lee nearly as much money as they did to Snell and Chapman combined ($113 vs. $116 million). Lee also has the highest Steamer projection of any of them; lower by ZiPS though. It looks like the Snell signing bumped their fangraphs projection up to 83.2 wins, and playoff odds are up tp 44% with a 9% chance of winning the division. Baseball is a sport where a months-long free agency saga that ends in a nine-figure contract for a superstar can net the team two extra wins over the course of a season, or a couple of balls taking a funny bounce off the edge of the grass can have the same effect.
I really don’t see Lee being worth the money. All the guy does it hit ground balls. We’ll see how his dWAR looks, but it’ll have to be good IMO
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 19, 2024 8:27:03 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Mar 19, 2024 8:50:21 GMT -5
Meyer is Boras' guy, and but also: This year's free agent class looks to me like it's doing perfectly fine - other than the Boras guys. So to whatever extent the system is rigged to favor Boras' interests, he's making the absolute least of it.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 19, 2024 8:59:45 GMT -5
Meyer is Boras' guy, and but also: This year's free agent class looks to me like it's doing perfectly fine - other than the Boras guys. So to whatever extent the system is rigged to favor Boras' interests, he's making the absolute least of it. Gio Urshella, Adam Duvall, Amed Rosario, JD Davis, Gary Sanchez, Michael Taylor, plus all the unsigned guys probably feeling like the system did not work for them.
The draft lottery was definitely a Boras thing, he talked about how horrible it was that teams were tanking for picks all the time. The players would have been better off letting the lottery go but asking for better catering instead.
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 19, 2024 9:21:21 GMT -5
Boras got his ass handed to him this Winter. But that can’t be the actual conclusion. Of course not. Instead, the whole system has to be broken. Ignore your lying eyes….
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Post by incandenza on Mar 19, 2024 9:22:42 GMT -5
Meyer is Boras' guy, and but also: This year's free agent class looks to me like it's doing perfectly fine - other than the Boras guys. So to whatever extent the system is rigged to favor Boras' interests, he's making the absolute least of it. Gio Urshella, Adam Duvall, Amed Rosario, JD Davis, Gary Sanchez, Michael Taylor, plus all the unsigned guys probably feeling like the system did not work for them.
The draft lottery was definitely a Boras thing, he talked about how horrible it was that teams were tanking for picks all the time. The players would have been better off letting the lottery go but asking for better catering instead.
Yeah don't get me wrong, I think the players have some justified gripes with the way the last CBA was negotiated, and I'm even perfectly happy to blame Boras for that. (Fun to blame Boras for stuff.)
I'm not sure what to make of those bottom-of-the-market free agents. Some of them did get surprisingly paltry contracts, but it may just be that with the intensification of the aging curve teams just put very little value on those 30+ free agents. (Why spend $10 million for a 1-WAR veteran when you can get 0.7 WAR from a rookie on league minimum?)
Of course that just goes back to the union having the wrong priorities in the last negotiation, like you point to. If players make it to free agency only to find that they're too old to be valued by the market than that's obviously not a great system for them.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Mar 19, 2024 10:28:49 GMT -5
Did the Astros front office repress their memories of Jordan Montgomery repeatedly striking out Yordan Alvarez and beating them in the playoffs last year? (It’s Bowden so grain of salt…)
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 19, 2024 11:30:05 GMT -5
Saw quite a few tweets that the Giants and Sox were in similar places this offseason and that the Giants had the offseason that the Red Sox should have had.
I wasn't about to get into a twitter/X argument (that is always a losing proposition), however other than last years standings, I do not think these clubs were similar at all.
The Giants had next to nothing with regards to young, highly thought of players on the MLB roster and very little in the minor league pipeline that would suggest big contributions from homegrown players in the next couple of years. To their credit, they went out and spent money to make their roster better because they had no other way to get better.
The Red Sox, on the other hand were/are loaded with young, highly touted players, with a stellar crop of prospects in both the upper and lower level minors. It is well documented that the vast majority of this young talent are position players and the Sox needed to add pitching, but if the aim was to build out this team with young talent, than even the current pitching staff fits that description. While I am definitely concerned about the starting pitching depth of this team, I am also excited about Houck, Whitlock and Crawford hopefully establishing themselves as solid MLB starters.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 19, 2024 11:47:28 GMT -5
Saw quite a few tweets that the Giants and Sox were in similar places this offseason and that the Giants had the offseason that the Red Sox should have had. I wasn't about to get into a twitter/X argument (that is always a losing proposition), however other than last years standings, I do not think these clubs were similar at all. The Giants had next to nothing with regards to young, highly thought of players on the MLB roster and very little in the minor league pipeline that would suggest big contributions from homegrown players in the next couple of years. To their credit, they went out and spent money to make their roster better because they had no other way to get better. The Red Sox, on the other hand were/are loaded with young, highly touted players, with a stellar crop of prospects in both the upper and lower level minors. It is well documented that the vast majority of this young talent are position players and the Sox needed to add pitching, but if the aim was to build out this team with young talent, than even the current pitching staff fits that description. While I am definitely concerned about the starting pitching depth of this team, I am also excited about Houck, Whitlock and Crawford hopefully establishing themselves as solid MLB starters. Agreed, although I remain completely floored at the lack of depth at SP especially after what they saw happen in 2022. There is plenty to watch for on this team before even looking at their record this year which is a big plus.
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 19, 2024 11:59:35 GMT -5
Gio Urshella, Adam Duvall, Amed Rosario, JD Davis, Gary Sanchez, Michael Taylor, plus all the unsigned guys probably feeling like the system did not work for them.
The draft lottery was definitely a Boras thing, he talked about how horrible it was that teams were tanking for picks all the time. The players would have been better off letting the lottery go but asking for better catering instead.
Yeah don't get me wrong, I think the players have some justified gripes with the way the last CBA was negotiated, and I'm even perfectly happy to blame Boras for that. (Fun to blame Boras for stuff.)
I'm not sure what to make of those bottom-of-the-market free agents. Some of them did get surprisingly paltry contracts, but it may just be that with the intensification of the aging curve teams just put very little value on those 30+ free agents. (Why spend $10 million for a 1-WAR veteran when you can get 0.7 WAR from a rookie on league minimum?)
Of course that just goes back to the union having the wrong priorities in the last negotiation, like you point to. If players make it to free agency only to find that they're too old to be valued by the market than that's obviously not a great system for them.
I can see a legitimate gripe about the way JD Davis was handled. That was pretty ugly and certain to get the Union’s attention. But older, low-priority(or injury-prone) types like Duvall, Urshela & Gary Sanchez shouldn’t sound any alarm bells. Nola got $172m(and $110m more than Snell somehow), Ohtani got $700m, Yamamoto got $325m. Josh Hader managed to get paid very well. Some 2nd-tier guys like Erod, Wacha, Sonny Gray, Hoskins, Soler & Giolito basically received fair market value. Plenty of other 3rd tier guys still received strong deals(IKF, Matt Moore, Kyle Gibson, David Robertson, Fedde, Caratini & Joc Pederson come to mind). So the money was out there in many cases. It IS strange when notorious spenders like the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels(and other) basically don’t participate in free agency, though. The RSN confusion had to play somewhat of a role here.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 19, 2024 12:54:43 GMT -5
Yeah don't get me wrong, I think the players have some justified gripes with the way the last CBA was negotiated, and I'm even perfectly happy to blame Boras for that. (Fun to blame Boras for stuff.)
I'm not sure what to make of those bottom-of-the-market free agents. Some of them did get surprisingly paltry contracts, but it may just be that with the intensification of the aging curve teams just put very little value on those 30+ free agents. (Why spend $10 million for a 1-WAR veteran when you can get 0.7 WAR from a rookie on league minimum?)
Of course that just goes back to the union having the wrong priorities in the last negotiation, like you point to. If players make it to free agency only to find that they're too old to be valued by the market than that's obviously not a great system for them.
I can see a legitimate gripe about the way JD Davis was handled. That was pretty ugly and certain to get the Union’s attention. But older, low-priority(or injury-prone) types like Duvall, Urshela & Gary Sanchez shouldn’t sound any alarm bells. Nola got $172m(and $110m more than Snell somehow), Ohtani got $700m, Yamamoto got $325m. Josh Hader managed to get paid very well. Some 2nd-tier guys like Erod, Wacha, Sonny Gray, Hoskins, Soler & Giolito basically received fair market value. Plenty of other 3rd tier guys still received strong deals(IKF, Matt Moore, Kyle Gibson, David Robertson, Fedde, Caratini & Joc Pederson come to mind). So the money was out there in many cases. It IS strange when notorious spenders like the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels(and other) basically don’t participate in free agency, though. The RSN confusion had to play somewhat of a role here. Even these teams did try for the top-tier guys in Yamamoto and/or Ohtani. It was just a really top-heavy free agent class so they couldn't all get a player like that; and it was made even more top-heavy by one specific agent overvaluing his clients and screwing 3 or 4 different guys out of 9-figure contracts.
I would be apoplectic about the JD Davis thing if I were a player. But otherwise I'm a little confused as to what the complaints are. The articles are all framing this as a response to how free agency's gone this year, and on the one hand, see above - the FA market sans Boras seems reasonable enough to me; but on the other hand I think julyanmorley is right that they have plenty to complain about in regards to the last CBA negotiations.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 19, 2024 14:56:54 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 19, 2024 15:00:17 GMT -5
I've long thought Tony Clark seemed relatively ineffective from what gets reported on the negotiations and what not. Sounds like things are going to get interesting to say the least.
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Post by briam on Mar 19, 2024 15:04:51 GMT -5
Nice to know the thought that Boras is detrimental to baseball isn’t just held by anonymous fans, but a good chunk of MLB players too.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 19, 2024 15:22:21 GMT -5
We officially have a mutiny/coup afoot in the MLBPA
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 19, 2024 15:25:08 GMT -5
That Marino statement about Boras is something else. If Marino wins I have no idea how those two are going to coexist.
I would like the union to care relatively less about if Aaron Nola has $325,000,000 career earnings instead of $280,000,000 career earnings, and relatively more about expanding the number of players that leave the game not needing to work again or at least in a strong economic position. That seems to be what Marino is after, along with arging for general incompetance from the current leadership.
34 out of 72 of the union's executive board is minor leaguers, and Drellich names three big leaguers that support Marino. Don't see this coup failing.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 19, 2024 15:37:44 GMT -5
That Marino statement about Boras is something else. If Marino wins I have no idea how those two are going to coexist. I would like the union to care relatively less about if Aaron Nola has $325,000,000 career earnings instead of $280,000,000 career earnings, and relatively more about expanding the number of players that leave the game not needing to work again or at least in a strong economic position. That seems to be what Marino is after, along with arging for general incompetance from the current leadership. 34 out of 72 of the union's executive board is minor leaguers, and Drellich names three big leaguers that support Marino. Don't see this coup failing. Exactly this. Sometimes people say things like "why do fans have it out for Boras, he's on the players' side, just trying to get them the most money." Well, this is helping to clarify why it's not exactly that simple.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 19, 2024 16:02:20 GMT -5
That Marino statement about Boras is something else. If Marino wins I have no idea how those two are going to coexist. I would like the union to care relatively less about if Aaron Nola has $325,000,000 career earnings instead of $280,000,000 career earnings, and relatively more about expanding the number of players that leave the game not needing to work again or at least in a strong economic position. That seems to be what Marino is after, along with arging for general incompetance from the current leadership. 34 out of 72 of the union's executive board is minor leaguers, and Drellich names three big leaguers that support Marino. Don't see this coup failing. Exactly this. Sometimes people say things like "why do fans have it out for Boras, he's on the players' side, just trying to get them the most money." Well, this is helping to clarify why it's not exactly that simple. Boras is for Boras. Always has been.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 19, 2024 20:46:32 GMT -5
Oy
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 19, 2024 20:53:20 GMT -5
Moms, dont let your kids grow up to be pitchers. Its a very dangerous job these days.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 20, 2024 12:00:31 GMT -5
Red Sox really couldn't have beaten 2/62? Whatever. Montgomery is probably going to the Mets or Yankees for 2/55 with a mutual option or something.
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