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2023-2024 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 20, 2024 12:01:33 GMT -5
Red Sox really couldn't have beaten 2/62? Whatever. Montgomery is probably going to the Mets or Yankees for 2/55 with a mutual option or something. I wouldn’t have wanted them to try to beat 2/62.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 20, 2024 12:03:05 GMT -5
Red Sox really couldn't have beaten 2/62? Whatever. Montgomery is probably going to the Mets or Yankees for 2/55 with a mutual option or something. I wouldn’t have wanted them to try to beat 2/62. Why not? Unless the goal is to try and tank the season for the best possible draft pick, which that I could understand.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2024 12:06:28 GMT -5
Going over the luxury tax and losing pick #50 to get Snell on a player friendly one year deal probably doesn't make a lot of sense for this team
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Post by puzzler on Mar 20, 2024 12:10:24 GMT -5
I wouldn’t have wanted them to try to beat 2/62. Why not? Unless the goal is to try and tank the season for the best possible draft pick, which that I could understand. A) Loss of Draft Pick B) LT penalties C) He isn't worth that D) They don't need more starters who the biggest question is will they get past the 5th inning more times than not E) Loss of good look at Whitlock or Houck F) We don't need to give the Twitter and #FenwayBoycott folks a reason to show up at Fenway Park - please for the love of god, let them stay away.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Mar 20, 2024 12:41:05 GMT -5
Moms, dont let your kids grow up to be pitchers. It’s a very dangerous job these days. I was gonna joke that pitchers should just all try to be two-players now and they should lobby to lose the DH again… and then I got curious. In the NL in 2021 (the last year where they did not have the DH rule) pitchers had 4479 plate appearances - or close to 5% of NL plate appearances. NL pitchers have now gone from around 1-2 at bats per game where they didn’t really have to try because they were facing their counterparts… to now all those at-bats going to high stress matchups against Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, etc. And you throw a pitch clock in on top of it. I wonder if that’s had any residual effect on pitchers’ arms (at least in the NL) in addition to the max effort/max stuff factors that have been linked to more pitcher injuries.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 20, 2024 12:47:55 GMT -5
Why not? Unless the goal is to try and tank the season for the best possible draft pick, which that I could understand. A) Loss of Draft Pick B) LT penalties C) He isn't worth that D) They don't need more starters who the biggest question is will they get past the 5th inning more times than not E) Loss of good look at Whitlock or Houck F) We don't need to give the Twitter and #FenwayBoycott folks a reason to show up at Fenway Park - please for the love of god, let them stay away. A. Loss of a 2nd round pick isn't that big of a deal. For reference, that would mean the loss of a similar talent to Cutter Coffey, Jud Fabian, Blaze Jordan (no 2nd rounder), Matthew Lugo. B. They would be barely over after having reset the penalties. The tax would be 20% on top of how much they're over. I believe they're 22 million under which means 20% in 9 million dollars. C. He's worth 31 million per year. What is that based on? Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are making 43.3 million this year. Blake Snell had a 2.25 ERA ans a 6.2 WAR last year and is 30 years old. He's a two-time Cy Young winner. His only issue is health. The Red Sox literally just signed a guy who is missing year 1 of 2. It's not a long-term commitment and this current rotation is horrible. D. They need starters in general. Pivetta is their 2nd best starting pitcher. E. Whitlock and Houck have had years to show something. They haven't. Both are better suited for the pen. Houck is the definition of a 4 inning pitcher and Whitlock just isn't nearly as magical in the rotation and often gets hurt while starting. F. I personally would be all for the collective head explosions if Henry had suddenly signed both Snell and Montgomery. Their rotation woes would be a strength, especially with Cole missing a couple of months. They would also lose 500k in signing pool money. But I guess it really depends how much you're willing to punt on this season. Snell would easily be their 1 or 2. This team currently constructed is not making the playoffs. I'm easily swayed by the tank as long as they actually go through with trading veterans.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Mar 20, 2024 12:59:10 GMT -5
I still don't understand the apparent need to stay under the LT this year, but it would make no sense to avoid it like the plague all winter, forgoing multiple upgrades that could have helped this roster, and then go over to give what amounts to a one-year deal to a pitcher who won't even start the season on time at this point. I'd have jumped at Snell or Montgomery on that type of contract a few weeks ago, but Boras waited too long.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 20, 2024 13:54:34 GMT -5
A) Loss of Draft Pick B) LT penalties C) He isn't worth that D) They don't need more starters who the biggest question is will they get past the 5th inning more times than not E) Loss of good look at Whitlock or Houck F) We don't need to give the Twitter and #FenwayBoycott folks a reason to show up at Fenway Park - please for the love of god, let them stay away. A. Loss of a 2nd round pick isn't that big of a deal. For reference, that would mean the loss of a similar talent to Cutter Coffey, Jud Fabian, Blaze Jordan (no 2nd rounder), Matthew Lugo. B. They would be barely over after having reset the penalties. The tax would be 20% on top of how much they're over. I believe they're 22 million under which means 20% in 9 million dollars. C. He's worth 31 million per year. What is that based on? Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are making 43.3 million this year. Blake Snell had a 2.25 ERA ans a 6.2 WAR last year and is 30 years old. He's a two-time Cy Young winner. His only issue is health. The Red Sox literally just signed a guy who is missing year 1 of 2. It's not a long-term commitment and this current rotation is horrible. D. They need starters in general. Pivetta is their 2nd best starting pitcher. E. Whitlock and Houck have had years to show something. They haven't. Both are better suited for the pen. Houck is the definition of a 4 inning pitcher and Whitlock just isn't nearly as magical in the rotation and often gets hurt while starting. F. I personally would be all for the collective head explosions if Henry had suddenly signed both Snell and Montgomery. Their rotation woes would be a strength, especially with Cole missing a couple of months. They would also lose 500k in signing pool money. But I guess it really depends how much you're willing to punt on this season. Snell would easily be their 1 or 2. This team currently constructed is not making the playoffs. I'm easily swayed by the tank as long as they actually go through with trading veterans. A) Roman Anthony B+C+F) It's not just the penalties this year - let's say you go over this year and then you go over next year because you were better than expected and everyone wants you to go for it. Then you're left with a decision in 2026 on whether or not to take massive penalties because you went over by $10 million in a year when it didn't make sense to do so. If the Red Sox have Snell - do you see them as a World Series contender? It's one thing to say, oh, you might make the playoffs. The Twins have made the playoffs a bunch over the last 20 years and what do they have to show for it? Fast forward to 2026 - you've got Mayer, Anthony, Teel, maybe a few others and your team looks real good, but you want to maximize your opportunity - but everyone you sign is going to cost you a fortune. The Yankees could use Snell or Montgomery or whoever right now - but they are pretty well maxed out unless they want to get stupid. D) Crawford is the 2nd best pitcher and I think he and Bello are about to have really strong seasons. E) Every team except for Boston, New Yorkx2 and Los Angeles have allowed their starting pitching prospects to develop at the major league level over multiple seasons. They don't throw the baby out with the bath water in most cases because they can't afford to, but increasingly because they aren't stupid as hell. Whitlock and Houck deserve a full season to actually develop in one role - not as fits all pieces for a middling team. G) Choosing between wasting money and tanking is a fool's choice - they can be a barely make or barely miss playoff team and the world isn't going to suddenly implode. As a fan, if anyone gets apoplectic over an 82-80 or 78-84 season, they shouldn't follow sports at all.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2024 15:09:40 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 20, 2024 15:25:24 GMT -5
Insert popcorn eating gif
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Mar 20, 2024 15:39:41 GMT -5
A reminder that Blake Snell has only pitched more than 130 innings twice in his eight year career (2018 and 2023 - to his credit, he won the Cy Young both years!).
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 20, 2024 15:53:08 GMT -5
A reminder that Blake Snell has only pitched more than 130 innings twice in his eight year career (2018 and 2023 - to his credit, he won the Cy Young both years!). I get it for the Giants, Snell could certainly push them to playoff caliber. A Webb, Harrison, Snell trio in the rotation is solid. That being said as you point out he's only pitched more than 130 innings twice and with getting a late start this year I wouldn't expect this to be the third time. Feels like it's going to be pretty hard for the Giants to get their money's worth out of less than 130 IP from Snell. This contract feels like there is a lot of potential downside for the Giants. Snell stays healthy, pitches 100-130 innings and he's opting out. Snell gets hurt and they're stuck with him picking up his 2nd year option. I guess you can say that about a lot if not most FA contracts though.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2024 16:17:09 GMT -5
Kinda weird to have a signing bonus to be paid in two years. Is that about avoiding California taxes?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 20, 2024 16:23:47 GMT -5
The loss of a second round pick is huge deal. Imagine a 2020 draft in which the Red Sox can wait until the second round to take Nick Yorke and can instead draft, say, Tyler Soderstrom. They probably don't take Jordan in the third but that's huge.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 20, 2024 16:49:48 GMT -5
A reminder that Blake Snell has only pitched more than 130 innings twice in his eight year career (2018 and 2023 - to his credit, he won the Cy Young both years!). I think this hurts Montgomery more since he gets way more of his value from durability and availability than Snell does. It’s insane how long he is taking
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 20, 2024 17:29:09 GMT -5
A. Loss of a 2nd round pick isn't that big of a deal. For reference, that would mean the loss of a similar talent to Cutter Coffey, Jud Fabian, Blaze Jordan (no 2nd rounder), Matthew Lugo. B. They would be barely over after having reset the penalties. The tax would be 20% on top of how much they're over. I believe they're 22 million under which means 20% in 9 million dollars. C. He's worth 31 million per year. What is that based on? Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are making 43.3 million this year. Blake Snell had a 2.25 ERA ans a 6.2 WAR last year and is 30 years old. He's a two-time Cy Young winner. His only issue is health. The Red Sox literally just signed a guy who is missing year 1 of 2. It's not a long-term commitment and this current rotation is horrible. D. They need starters in general. Pivetta is their 2nd best starting pitcher. E. Whitlock and Houck have had years to show something. They haven't. Both are better suited for the pen. Houck is the definition of a 4 inning pitcher and Whitlock just isn't nearly as magical in the rotation and often gets hurt while starting. F. I personally would be all for the collective head explosions if Henry had suddenly signed both Snell and Montgomery. Their rotation woes would be a strength, especially with Cole missing a couple of months. They would also lose 500k in signing pool money. But I guess it really depends how much you're willing to punt on this season. Snell would easily be their 1 or 2. This team currently constructed is not making the playoffs. I'm easily swayed by the tank as long as they actually go through with trading veterans. A) Roman Anthony B+C+F) It's not just the penalties this year - let's say you go over this year and then you go over next year because you were better than expected and everyone wants you to go for it. Then you're left with a decision in 2026 on whether or not to take massive penalties because you went over by $10 million in a year when it didn't make sense to do so. If the Red Sox have Snell - do you see them as a World Series contender? It's one thing to say, oh, you might make the playoffs. The Twins have made the playoffs a bunch over the last 20 years and what do they have to show for it? Fast forward to 2026 - you've got Mayer, Anthony, Teel, maybe a few others and your team looks real good, but you want to maximize your opportunity - but everyone you sign is going to cost you a fortune. The Yankees could use Snell or Montgomery or whoever right now - but they are pretty well maxed out unless they want to get stupid. D) Crawford is the 2nd best pitcher and I think he and Bello are about to have really strong seasons. E) Every team except for Boston, New Yorkx2 and Los Angeles have allowed their starting pitching prospects to develop at the major league level over multiple seasons. They don't throw the baby out with the bath water in most cases because they can't afford to, but increasingly because they aren't stupid as hell. Whitlock and Houck deserve a full season to actually develop in one role - not as fits all pieces for a middling team. G) Choosing between wasting money and tanking is a fool's choice - they can be a barely make or barely miss playoff team and the world isn't going to suddenly implode. As a fan, if anyone gets apoplectic over an 82-80 or 78-84 season, they shouldn't follow sports at all. I don't think Roman Anthony would have been the player lost in the comp pick. Fair to point him out though, but I'm willing to bet if I go back 10 drafts the 2nd round pick is pretty pedestrian. But lottery tickets are better than no lottery tickets. Yankees and Dodgers have far exceed the luxury tax 3 years in a row. The Red Sox are the 3rd highest valuation team in baseball. I don't foresee that changing next year either. It's also impossible to tell where the Red Sox (or even the planet) will be 3 years from now. Bello could have TJ surgery 2 years from now. Casas could never sign an extension and walk as a free agent. Marcello Mayer could end up being a bust. I don't want the Red Sox to just not try and not really do anything until the right situation falls into their lap. I'm a bit of a hypocrite because I wanted them to sell at the last two deadlines, but there's something to be said about just sneaking into the playoffs. The 2013 Red Sox were considered a bad "bridge" team that year. The Diamondbacks got in as the 3rd WC and ended up winning the NL pennant. I don't know about Kutter Crawford being the 2nd best pitcher. I like his story and want him to thrive. He's 28 and had a decent season last year after not being thought of as nothing more than a swing man. Projections on him seem to be a 4.6 ERA pitcher this year. He's not terrible, but that's the stat of a 5th starter. 1.98 ERA in ST though. But I know ST stats never really mean anything. I feel like if you believe this current team, as constituted, is a 78-84 win team, why wouldn't you want a frontline starter to augment it? In the playoffs anything can happen and if Bello and Snell are healthy and pitching well, you have 2 potential aces out of 4 possible starters.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 20, 2024 17:41:52 GMT -5
There's a conflict in the threads, between wanting to plan for extensions such as the one Bello got, and shipping money out to Snell and other unnamed "shoulda-hads". I imagine there's some budgeting and long-term planning going on. I felt early on that they needed more starting pitching depth. With Giolito hurt and Sale gone, that's still a need I believe. These are tough decisions and reasonable people can disagree. But going forward, I don't see how they can get the emerging core extended while also buying for marginal wins.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 20, 2024 17:52:53 GMT -5
The loss of a second round pick is huge deal. Imagine a 2020 draft in which the Red Sox can wait until the second round to take Nick Yorke and can instead draft, say, Tyler Soderstrom. They probably don't take Jordan in the third but that's huge. I like Nick Yorke and I hope he becomes and every day player for the Red Sox. I love his unique swing and want to see it daily. With that said, last year wasn't a promising year for him and ST wasn't kind to him either. But I understand, he's 21. He has promise. ST is SSS and the numbers don't really matter. Injuries derailed his 2022 and this was his first year at AA. Also, I'm not sure what the reference here is? Chaim said it wasn't a reach to take Yorke. He was always his target and that had there been a full season his stock would have risen. They literally lost a 2nd rounder that year because they got caught cheating. That pick would have been, 43? The 43rd pick was Zach DeLoach. spreading that downward: Zach DeLoach - Not in top 100 Jared Jones - 62nd ranked prospect Owen Caissie - 47th ranked prospect Chris McMahon - Not in top 100 Jared Kelley - Not in top 100 Christian Roa - Not in top 100 Casey Schmitt - Not in top 100 Evan Carter - 5th ranked prospect So, there's a chance the Red Sox could have hit on Jones, Caissie, or Carter and it would be fantastic. The odds are more favorable they take a guy most people will never hear of. Also, didn't realize that Yorke wasn't listed in the top 100 at the moment. That's unfortunate.
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Post by geostorm on Mar 20, 2024 18:06:25 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2024 21:28:46 GMT -5
theathletic.com/5358051/2024/03/20/mlbpa-tony-clark-votes-remove/Adding the minor leaguers changes the dynamic entirely. They outnumber the major leaguers if there's a membership-wide vote. Long term could we see major league salaries stagnate, but huge increases in minor league salaries? Maybe the urgency MLB has had with cutting minor league reserve list roster spots is related to them seeing minor league bargaining power greatly growing in the future.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 20, 2024 22:19:49 GMT -5
Sounding more and more like Marino's vision for the union is the minor leaguers taking over.
I might be back on team Boras!
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 20, 2024 23:46:39 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 20, 2024 23:49:11 GMT -5
Jordan Montgomery is like the last person chosen for the dodgeball team. The potential teams are starting to dwindle
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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2024 4:10:22 GMT -5
Sounding more and more like Marino's vision for the union is the minor leaguers taking over.
I might be back on team Boras! What woud be wrong with this?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2024 4:16:06 GMT -5
Jordan Montgomery is like the last person chosen for the dodgeball team. The potential teams are starting to dwindle The latest scuttlebutt is that Montgomery might wait until after opening day so that he doesn't get offered the QO after this season. In other words, he might want to lower his value to a signing team even more - both by denying the team QO compensation and by missing the first month or so of the season.
Speier said a while back that the Red Sox would be willing to sign Montgomery if his price tag got into the range of what Giolito signed for. Given how things are playing out, that is starting to seem plausible.
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