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Let's make a deal! Building a Yamamoto contract
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 5, 2023 12:37:24 GMT -5
It appears to be unanimous: Every single person on this chat board seems to have Yoshinobu Yamamoto at the top of their off-season wish list. Maybe it's time to give the prospect of landing him its own thread.
Yesterday, @soxkc proposed a relatively detailed contract for the 25-year-old (26 in August), 5'10" 176 lb., right-hander, which I've copied here:
<<Nov 4, 2023 12:31:41 GMT -8 bosoxkc said: How about 7/231 w/PO for 40 (10 buyout)
2024 27 2025 27 2026 27 Opt out 2027 35 2028 35 Opt out 2029 35 2030 35 2031 PO 40 (10 buyout) First opt out leaves 4/150 on table>>
I thought this was a nice opening salvo to provoke additional proposals from the crowd to create a source of data to inform an estimate of what Yamamoto-san will ultimately sign, whether with BOS or someone else. And, of course, we can argue about our respective proposals. As Monty Hall would say, Let's make a deal!
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 5, 2023 12:45:26 GMT -5
Honestly that contract structure makes so little sense for the signing team that I’m having a hard time explaining it. Why in the world would any team offer that contract? What are they getting in exchange for the opt-out? $33m/yr blows every projection I’ve seen for him out of the water to begin with, so it’s not like they’re saving money on the AAV from it.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 5, 2023 12:48:19 GMT -5
Honestly for me I’m a hard pass. He could transition perfectly or he could flop badly
I just don’t see that as worth our risk given where our roster is at right now
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Nov 5, 2023 12:52:52 GMT -5
I don't know, if it were me I'd want to inverse those numbers (The dollars get cheaper over time) so if it was going to be a 7 year deal for whatever reason I'd offer
2024 - 20 2025 - 27 2026 - 34 opt out 2027 - 34 2028 - 32 opt out 2029 - 30 2030- 25 2031 - 24 with 10 million buyout
I am always leery of any long contract for any pitcher not built like a brick shithouse.
Side note: hat tip to the Monty Hall reference, we just lost the under 30 crowd.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 5, 2023 12:54:46 GMT -5
I don't know, if it were me I'd want to inverse those numbers (The dollars get cheaper over time) so if it was going to be a 7 year deal for whatever reason I'd offer 2024 - 20 2025 - 27 2026 - 34 opt out 2027 - 34 2028 - 32 opt out 2029 - 30 2030- 25 2031 - 24 with 10 million buyout I am always leery of any long contract for any pitcher not built like a brick shithouse. Side note: hat tip to the Monty Hall reference, we just lost the under 30 crowd. Hey now, the Monty Hall problem is still an essential intro to stats topic. The whiz kid nerds who are ruining baseball love it too!
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 5, 2023 13:37:51 GMT -5
I think if you want attract YY and also protect yourself from later years, you need to front load before any player options, like this:
2024, Age 25 - $32m 2025, Age 26 - $32m 2026, Age 27 - $32m 2027, Age 28 - $32m 2028, Age 29 - $32m PO 2029, Age 30 - $20m 2030, Age 31 - $20m CO 2031, Age 32 - $30m, buyout $10m
That's 7 years, $210m guaranteed for the player but if he's as advertised, the club gets his five best years for $160m and would have the opportunity to negotiate an extension at age 30. If he opts in at age 30 (presumably if he either severely underperformed or needed TJ in his late 20s), the club also gets to negotiate an extension past 2030 before he hits FA.
Thank you in advance for tearing this proposal a new one...
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 5, 2023 13:44:58 GMT -5
The money behind the opt out is included in the posting fee calculation. Nobody is putting $100 million behind a high probability opt out and then paying an extra $25 million on the posting fee.
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Post by bg23 on Nov 5, 2023 14:10:35 GMT -5
The contract would have to get pretty ridiculous in dollars and years for me to be out, I am that high on him. But once opt outs are introduced I lose all interest. I’d rather overpay in years or AAV than lose out on basically all the potential surplus value of the deal. I’d much rather pay in the range of 7/200 to 10/250 than have him hitting the open market on a “reasonable” deal after 3 years.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Nov 5, 2023 15:15:04 GMT -5
10/265 no opt outs no options not nothing Straight cash homie
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 5, 2023 19:57:33 GMT -5
10/265 no opt outs no options not nothing Straight cash homie Has he retained Randy Moss as his agent?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 5, 2023 20:00:40 GMT -5
From the "BOS is the odds-on favorite" file: YY wears no. 18 when he plies his trade. Can anyone remember a famous Japanese pitcher who also wore no. 18 when YY was in his wicked formative years (i.e. 8-13)?
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 5, 2023 22:05:15 GMT -5
Offer him 8 years/$208M for an AAV of $26M but frontload it, so that the value to him is greater than the actual payout. In addition, give him an optout after year five.
As badly as I want him, anything more than 8 years sounds nuts to me and I'd move on to Nola. Giving him 10 years has the potential to turn this contract into the Sale debacle x 2.
I'd love to have him. I could be almost as happy with Nola on a five-year deal and Gray on a three-year deal. I see Eovaldi as a good comp for Gray and Eo got only two years from Texas.
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Nov 6, 2023 8:51:41 GMT -5
From the "BOS is the odds-on favorite" file: YY wears no. 18 when he plies his trade. Can anyone remember a famous Japanese pitcher who also wore no. 18 when YY was in his wicked formative years (i.e. 8-13)? Tomo Ohka was wearing 18 during YY's literal formative year...
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 6, 2023 9:54:56 GMT -5
Offer him 8 years/$208M for an AAV of $26M but frontload it, so that the value to him is greater than the actual payout. In addition, give him an optout after year five. As badly as I want him, anything more than 8 years sounds nuts to me and I'd move on to Nola. Giving him 10 years has the potential to turn this contract into the Sale debacle x 2. I'd love to have him. I could be almost as happy with Nola on a five-year deal and Gray on a three-year deal. I see Eovaldi as a good comp for Gray and Eo got only two years from Texas. Re; the bolded, this is still aiming really high. Those are probably going to be the two MLB FA pitchers with the highest WAR projections for next year. I'd love to get them both, but I don't know that our expectations should be to get two of the top five pitchers on the market.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 6, 2023 10:12:39 GMT -5
Offer him 8 years/$208M for an AAV of $26M but frontload it, so that the value to him is greater than the actual payout. In addition, give him an optout after year five. As badly as I want him, anything more than 8 years sounds nuts to me and I'd move on to Nola. Giving him 10 years has the potential to turn this contract into the Sale debacle x 2. I'd love to have him. I could be almost as happy with Nola on a five-year deal and Gray on a three-year deal. I see Eovaldi as a good comp for Gray and Eo got only two years from Texas. Re; the bolded, this is still aiming really high. Those are probably going to be the two MLB FA pitchers with the highest WAR projections for next year. I'd love to get them both, but I don't know that our expectations should be to get two of the top five pitchers on the market. For real: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and Cardinals all need to add a top-tier starter (or two!), and those are not the only teams that will be looking to do so. It wouldn't be surprising to me if the Red Sox don't land any of Yamamoto/Snell/Nola/Gray/Montgomery; I think the chances are miniscule that they get two of them. And if that's the case, I will just hope that Breslow is really the pitching warlock he's been made out to be.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 6, 2023 10:36:39 GMT -5
Re; the bolded, this is still aiming really high. Those are probably going to be the two MLB FA pitchers with the highest WAR projections for next year. I'd love to get them both, but I don't know that our expectations should be to get two of the top five pitchers on the market. For real: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and Cardinals all need to add a top-tier starter (or two!), and those are not the only teams that will be looking to do so. It wouldn't be surprising to me if the Red Sox don't land any of Yamamoto/Snell/Nola/Gray/Montgomery; I think the chances are miniscule that they get two of them. And if that's the case, I will just hope that Breslow is really the pitching warlock he's been made out to be. The Yankees would seem to not really need a top flight starter to me since they have Gerrit Cole and basically have no option but to hope for better results from Rodon. I do agree with you that I'm not getting my hopes up that the Sox land one of the big FA starter fish in that tier one and I would be absolutely shocked if they landed two.
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Post by pedromartinez1999 on Nov 6, 2023 13:41:24 GMT -5
I really hope to see him in a Sox uniform next year, but I think he will become a Met at the end of this in a ridiculous bidding war which we should be one of the finalists. John Henry will spend big this year he showed that with Penguins I just don't know he will but all his eggs in one basket, but I still have hope.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 6, 2023 13:46:37 GMT -5
Agree with @ematz. The MFYs really can't afford to add a top-flight FA starter until 2025 at the earliest. As it stands, they are at $247m toward the CBT (per spotrac) and they have issues all over the diamond to address, not just in the rotation. I will be stunned if they sign one of the top five SPs.
Of course, they are automatically included in any FA talk by national media because they're the MFYs but I'm not buying it.
That said, LAD, STL, SFG, TOR will all be serious competition, with others possibly joining the party playing the role of the 2021-22 Rangers (CHC, CHW, SEA, ARI, MIN, MIL?). And there's no telling what NYM will do. As always, to land YY it will come down to ¥¥ and the mystery of what he sees in each team and city. Craig's going to need to hike up his big-boy pants, for sure.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 6, 2023 18:21:01 GMT -5
Agree with @ematz. The MFYs really can't afford to add a top-flight FA starter until 2025 at the earliest. As it stands, they are at $247m toward the CBT (per spotrac) and they have issues all over the diamond to address, not just in the rotation. I will be stunned if they sign one of the top five SPs. Of course, they are automatically included in any FA talk by national media because they're the MFYs but I'm not buying it. That said, LAD, STL, SFG, TOR will all be serious competition, with others possibly joining the party playing the role of the 2021-22 Rangers (CHC, CHW, SEA, ARI, MIN, MIL?). And there's no telling what NYM will do. As always, to land YY it will come down to ¥¥ and the mystery of what he sees in each team and city. Craig's going to need to hike up his big-boy pants, for sure. The Mets will definitely be in YY. I'd expect them to offer 250 million for Yamamoto. They have the payroll room and need for pitching, young ace caliber pitching (who doesn't need that?). The Mets are banking on their young players and prospects acquired to start impacting by 2025 and a young ace to go with these guys makes sense for them. The only way they dont go after Yamamoto is if they sign Ohtani and even then I wouldn't rule them out. My guess is Ohtani winds up with the Dodgers and Yamamoto with the Mets. The Sox will certainly be in the mix for both, but I think they'll wind up looking elsewhere instead.
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patford
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Post by patford on Nov 6, 2023 18:30:37 GMT -5
Maybe when bidding for free agents the Sox should hire a world champion poker player. The poker player would not make the decision on who to bid on the poker player would simply handle the bidding process with an eye on "what it the club's ceiling" and "how to inflict maximum pain." In other words if the price goes higher than Henry is willing to go how much above that can the poker player bluff the eventual team to go. The Dodgers might well need starting pitching more than the Sox do so Yamamoto will probably sign there so the goal should be to shiv the Dodgers and bleed them dry.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 6, 2023 19:16:39 GMT -5
MLBTR predicts 9/225, 2/3 of their predictors picked the Yankees and one picked the Giants. They do mention the Red Sox as likely to be in the mix.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 6, 2023 19:27:55 GMT -5
MLBTR predicts 9/225, 2/3 of their predictors picked the Yankees and one picked the Giants. They do mention the Red Sox as likely to be in the mix. I've got no interest in that kind of deal. We'll see what the spreadsheets say, but I don't think they're going to predict like 5.5 WAR for next season or anything. That's paying for 25 WAR, it's going to take an awful lot for me to predict any pitcher has 25 WAR left in them.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 6, 2023 22:14:18 GMT -5
MLBTR predicts 9/225, 2/3 of their predictors picked the Yankees and one picked the Giants. They do mention the Red Sox as likely to be in the mix. I've got no interest in that kind of deal. We'll see what the spreadsheets say, but I don't think they're going to predict like 5.5 WAR for next season or anything. That's paying for 25 WAR, it's going to take an awful lot for me to predict any pitcher has 25 WAR left in them. What if your options are 25 WAR left in a 25-year-old, 22 WAR left in a 31-year-old (Snell), 16 WAR left in a 31-year-old (Nola/Montgomery), or 10 WAR left in a 34-year-old (Gray)? Because those are the other top-shelf options, if MLBTR is to be believed.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 6, 2023 22:51:58 GMT -5
I've got no interest in that kind of deal. We'll see what the spreadsheets say, but I don't think they're going to predict like 5.5 WAR for next season or anything. That's paying for 25 WAR, it's going to take an awful lot for me to predict any pitcher has 25 WAR left in them. What if your options are 25 WAR left in a 25-year-old, 22 WAR left in a 31-year-old (Snell), 16 WAR left in a 31-year-old (Nola/Montgomery), or 10 WAR left in a 34-year-old (Gray)? Because those are the other top-shelf options, if MLBTR is to be believed. My expectation is that they go into next season with a giant payroll and that they don't make any moves out of line with what the rest of the league is paying for wins. If they means they don't end up spending on the top pitchers then that's fine by me. My one exception is that I'd be okay with a stupid overpay for Ohtani because it'd be extra fun to root for him.
Those Nola and Gray numbers don't strike me as crazy at a glance.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 6, 2023 23:29:42 GMT -5
What if your options are 25 WAR left in a 25-year-old, 22 WAR left in a 31-year-old (Snell), 16 WAR left in a 31-year-old (Nola/Montgomery), or 10 WAR left in a 34-year-old (Gray)? Because those are the other top-shelf options, if MLBTR is to be believed. My expectation is that they go into next season with a giant payroll and that they don't make any moves out of line with what the rest of the league is paying for wins. If they means they don't end up spending on the top pitchers then that's fine by me. My one exception is that I'd be okay with a stupid overpay for Ohtani because it'd be extra fun to root for him.
Those Nola and Gray numbers don't strike me as crazy at a glance.
I have to say, there are about 5 or 6 mid-tier options where if they only added from that group I'd say "okay, guess I'll trust Breslow on this pitching stuff." Like if Stroman and Lugo were the big additions, I wouldn't despair.
But I think Yamamoto is my favorite of the top tier options even at these numbers. The age advantage is just huge. And I don't think expecting 25 WAR from a guy that young is so crazy. Like you know who put up 25 WAR in 9 years since their age 25 season? Sonny Gray. I'd be willing to make the bet that Yamamoto has a Sonny Gray-like career in him.
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