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Let's make a deal! Building a Yamamoto contract
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2023 21:37:47 GMT -5
$300 seems nuts, I’d just go get Imanaga for so much less and let the plus fastball ride If they truly believe in his talent, then they should pay what it takes. It's not about getting "value". It's about securing high end talent. Most players are highly fungible but the higher up you are in the pyramid of talent level, the more it'll take. I'd rather it take money than trading the farm system. They need an ace. If they don't truly believe he will be an ace, and have a lot of reservations, then yeah, go in a different direction. Only they know their own internal evaluation. I'm just pushing back against this constant search for value as if you can plot and plug in players interchangeably and it the results all fit so nice and snugly into a grand plan. The Sox have done that approach. They are nearly bereft of top notch talent and have a lot of second tier talent. It's fine to have second tier talent. You need to have it. You can't drop top bucks on everybody, but if the Sox think Yamamoto is truly an ace, and alternatives are less appealing, they better do what it takes, which could include an opt out after 4 or 5 seasons. I'm less concerned about John Henry's profit margin. I'm concerned with the Red Sox securing some top notch talent because if they don't do that, they'll just be left with a bunch of second tier players and a team that would be lucky to win 88 games, and if there are a rash of injuries then it's another 78 win season. We'll see how high they'll go. They could risk making a mistake in evaluation but at some point you have to make a judgment that you believe in and go with it. It'll be interesting to see if we can tell what their philosophy.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Dec 4, 2023 21:58:36 GMT -5
For me it's partly about the age, but also, I think his "Stuff" is pretty darn good. I think he will translate well to MLB. While I don't argue to be a Scout I've followed him for quite awhile and I think he's special.
It's also the fact that if his market does go crazy it means the other top end starters won't be far behind. If say Snell gets 27.5 mil per and Monte gets 23 or 24mil per, than the upgrade to Yamomoto is worth close to 30mil AAV in my eyes. His age actually allows you to feel better about paying in length also.
Pitchers that check all the boxes that YY checks don't hit the market very often. If they don't grab him now, they might not have a shot to grab an arm like this in the window we need. With our young core coming up, Yamomoto is the right age, right profile and available for only money. The price and demand for pitching never decreases, this is a chance to get a fully developed stud.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 4, 2023 22:08:32 GMT -5
$300 seems nuts, I’d just go get Imanaga for so much less and let the plus fastball ride That's a good pivot off of that. Plus I felt they need 2 starters. I want to protect Bello in the rotation.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 4, 2023 23:40:03 GMT -5
Okay maybe we should give him $300 million
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Post by 0ap0 on Dec 5, 2023 10:17:23 GMT -5
I feel like he may not end up being "worth" a $300M contract, but that he's unlikely to be bad and the real risk is that you've done an overpay of ~3M/season which just doesn't sound like a big deal to me.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2023 10:39:19 GMT -5
Once again, if you have to pay $300 million and get $225 million of value, you did great. You're not looking for excess value with high-end free agent signings, you're looking to get something approaching the excellence that you're consciously, intentionally overpaying for.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,029
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Post by cdj on Dec 5, 2023 10:41:35 GMT -5
If they truly believe he’s an MLB ace then I guess there isn’t really a price too high
There are just so few of those on the planet and he hasn’t done anything in the bigs so it’s a gamble. Although I will say this- with the amount of info teams have nowadays it is less of a gamble than it would have been 20 years ago
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2023 10:54:51 GMT -5
I don't really even get how Yamamoto's hype has gotten so out of control. He's 5'10, doesn't have otherwordly stuff or anything, doesn't strike out that many guys and fans have seen him pitch somewhere between zero and two times. It's because he's 25. 25yo top-half-of-rotation guys don't hit free agency.
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Post by asm19 on Dec 5, 2023 11:16:20 GMT -5
Full breakdown of Yamamoto's mechanics:
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Post by dcb26 on Dec 5, 2023 15:17:43 GMT -5
If they truly believe he’s an MLB ace then I guess there isn’t really a price too high There are just so few of those on the planet and he hasn’t done anything in the bigs so it’s a gamble. Although I will say this- with the amount of info teams have nowadays it is less of a gamble than it would have been 20 years ago I'm in complete agreement, but I think the sticker shock of $300 million is causing people to miss the fact that if he's *just* a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, that's still likely to be a very good deal, given that he should be able to remain at that level for a while. As Chris said, pitchers like that just don't hit free agency - so we need to evaluate him differently than the "well he better win a CY in the first 3 years or this is going to be a disaster" standard for most massive contracts given to FA pitchers. Put another way, I thought the max I would want to go to for him was 9/230, and then 10/260, but if 10/300 is what it takes, I'm in
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on Dec 5, 2023 15:26:13 GMT -5
One thing it’s hard to be sure about too is whether or not the figures reporters hear are inclusive of the posting fee or not. Okay maybe we should give him $300 million As a man who isn’t even flexible enough to touch his toes, this is offensive.
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Post by asm19 on Dec 5, 2023 15:40:33 GMT -5
If they truly believe he’s an MLB ace then I guess there isn’t really a price too high There are just so few of those on the planet and he hasn’t done anything in the bigs so it’s a gamble. Although I will say this- with the amount of info teams have nowadays it is less of a gamble than it would have been 20 years ago I'm in complete agreement, but I think the sticker shock of $300 million is causing people to miss the fact that if he's *just* a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, that's still likely to be a very good deal, given that he should be able to remain at that level for a while. As Chris said, pitchers like that just don't hit free agency - so we need to evaluate him differently than the "well he better win a CY in the first 3 years or this is going to be a disaster" standard for most massive contracts given to FA pitchers. I think this is a fair point - but if he's just a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, wouldn't it make sense just get Jordan Montgomery (who is basically that already) for his 5 year/105 mil projection (+ whatever % increase Boras is able to make happen through savvy negotiating)? To cdj's comment - if a team thinks he's an ace (and he has three Japan Cy Youngs and a whole lot of good traits to suggest that's a good possibility!) then by all means throw him all dat money. But if the evaluation instead is that he's merely good or very good, isn't it a risk throwing him 10 years at 300 mil just because he's younger? For point of comparison, Zach Wheeler becomes a free agent again next year at 34. I don't mean this be a disingenuous question, but if both were thirty years old, how closely would you rank the two in terms of ability? All this is to say - a question I personally want to know the answer to - when you put aside the age factor, specifically how good is Yamamoto?
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Post by bg23 on Dec 5, 2023 16:41:23 GMT -5
I'm in complete agreement, but I think the sticker shock of $300 million is causing people to miss the fact that if he's *just* a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, that's still likely to be a very good deal, given that he should be able to remain at that level for a while. As Chris said, pitchers like that just don't hit free agency - so we need to evaluate him differently than the "well he better win a CY in the first 3 years or this is going to be a disaster" standard for most massive contracts given to FA pitchers. I think this is a fair point - but if he's just a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, wouldn't it make sense just get Jordan Montgomery (who is basically that already) for his 5 year/105 mil projection (+ whatever % increase Boras is able to make happen through savvy negotiating)? To cdj's comment - if a team thinks he's an ace (and he has three Japan Cy Youngs and a whole lot of good traits to suggest that's a good possibility!) then by all means throw him all dat money. But if the evaluation instead is that he's merely good or very good, isn't it a risk throwing him 10 years at 300 mil just because he's younger? For point of comparison, Zach Wheeler becomes a free agent again next year at 34. I don't mean this be a disingenuous question, but if both were thirty years old, how closely would you rank the two in terms of ability? All this is to say - a question I personally want to know the answer to - when you put aside the age factor, specifically how good is Yamamoto? Given the contracts already handed out to Nola and Gray, and Yamamoto reportedly likely beating hid projected contract by nearly $100 million, I don't think the 5/105 contract is realistic an longer. If it was, he is likely already signed then. He is probably looking for something similar to the Nola contract. Maybe 6/150? And how good is Yamamoto? Impossible to know without seeing him in the MLB, but his pitches grade out well, has a low walk rate (1.5/9), and has consistently created weak contact (2 HRs last year, strong GB rates particularly on the splitter and curveball). The biggest negatives are his pedestrian (by top of the rotation standards) strikeout numbers (9.3/9) and maybe his size. He has been the most successful pitcher to ever come over from Japan, and teams have more data on international players than they ever have. Given where the contract negotiations are reportedly going, I would guess teams are very confident in his ability to be a front end of the rotation pitcher.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 5, 2023 16:45:12 GMT -5
I'm in complete agreement, but I think the sticker shock of $300 million is causing people to miss the fact that if he's *just* a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, that's still likely to be a very good deal, given that he should be able to remain at that level for a while. As Chris said, pitchers like that just don't hit free agency - so we need to evaluate him differently than the "well he better win a CY in the first 3 years or this is going to be a disaster" standard for most massive contracts given to FA pitchers. I think this is a fair point - but if he's just a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, wouldn't it make sense just get Jordan Montgomery (who is basically that already) for his 5 year/105 mil projection (+ whatever % increase Boras is able to make happen through savvy negotiating)? To cdj's comment - if a team thinks he's an ace (and he has three Japan Cy Youngs and a whole lot of good traits to suggest that's a good possibility!) then by all means throw him all dat money. But if the evaluation instead is that he's merely good or very good, isn't it a risk throwing him 10 years at 300 mil just because he's younger? For point of comparison, Zach Wheeler becomes a free agent again next year at 34. I don't mean this be a disingenuous question, but if both were thirty years old, how closely would you rank the two in terms of ability? All this is to say - a question I personally want to know the answer to - when you put aside the age factor, specifically how good is Yamamoto? 'How good is Yamamoto' is the 300 million dollar question which nobody, even the best professional talent evaluators, can fully answer. But if the rumors of a 300 million contract are true, then the best guess from the top professional talent evaluators is 'pretty damn good!'. Given the lower competition, smaller baseball, proximity to home, lack of travel and 6-man rotations I think the a floor of a #3 is probably optimistic, but I'm not deciding on whether he gets 300 mil. Wheeler has been worth 28.2 fWAR starting with his age 25 season, despite missing his age 25 and 26 seasons along with half his age 27 and 30 (covid) seasons. If we assume that Yoshi does a little better than 7 year healthy out of 10 (let's assume 8), then that would place him over 32 fWAR and would be a pretty good investment. He's probably slightly less talented, but more consistent (over the projected course of a career), than Wheeler. I think for talent/ability, Nola may be a closer comp. He's been worth 25.5 fWAR from his age 25-30 seasons, which would be a pretty good return on the first 6 years of a 10 year contract. Nola just got 172mil/7-years for his age 31-37 seasons. If the Red Sox had signed him to 120mil/4-years (assuming a 300mil/10-year contract) for his age 31-34 seasons, most of us would be pretty happy. Given that Gray and Nola exceeded their contract estimates (by 15% and 19% in total value), we should assume Montgomery does better than that estimate. Perhaps somewhere in the 115/5 to 130/6 range?
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Post by dcb26 on Dec 5, 2023 18:03:04 GMT -5
I'm in complete agreement, but I think the sticker shock of $300 million is causing people to miss the fact that if he's *just* a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, that's still likely to be a very good deal, given that he should be able to remain at that level for a while. As Chris said, pitchers like that just don't hit free agency - so we need to evaluate him differently than the "well he better win a CY in the first 3 years or this is going to be a disaster" standard for most massive contracts given to FA pitchers. I think this is a fair point - but if he's just a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, wouldn't it make sense just get Jordan Montgomery (who is basically that already) for his 5 year/105 mil projection (+ whatever % increase Boras is able to make happen through savvy negotiating)? ... when you put aside the age factor, specifically how good is Yamamoto? Yeah both valid points. Re: Montgomery, I see 3 things: 1) even if you project them both as a 2, Yamamoto definitely has ace upside, which Montgomery does not; 2) The age difference is real, and so signing Yamamoto to a longer deal is potentially a good thing, you would theoretically get a much larger percentage of the deal in pre-decline years; 3) I think 5/105 is much, much less than Montgomery signs for - it would be almost criminal *not* to pursue him at that price, regardless of anything else. To the point about "when you put aside the age factor..." it's a concern for teams with very limited spending but I just don't think you can take that out of the equation if you consider things from the Sox perspective. Regardless of exactly where they are in payroll rankings, the Sox have the resources to supplement Yamamoto with other signings, so he only has to be good enough to be a non-terrible investment to be worth signing, because his age makes his decline risk so much less than many other available pitchers. They won't have to depend solely on him to carry the franchise. To be clear, I'm just outlining why I think the projected cost is more reasonable than many other people seem to think. He is absolutely a risk, but both extremes are still in play - risk to be a disaster if he is unplayable, but with real ace upside as well.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 6, 2023 9:09:14 GMT -5
I’ve been on the YY train from Jump St. Station, but my main concern is his size. My new cautious comp for him is Tim Lincecum. You gotta have impeccable mechanics to throw that hard when you’re that size. Could be there for 4-5 years, then disappear. You’re also more susceptible to wear and tear. Another reason why I’m sticking with a front-loaded deal with a player option after 4 and/or 5 years.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 6, 2023 9:30:00 GMT -5
I don't really even get how Yamamoto's hype has gotten so out of control. He's 5'10, doesn't have otherwordly stuff or anything, doesn't strike out that many guys and fans have seen him pitch somewhere between zero and two times. It's because he's 25. 25yo top-half-of-rotation guys don't hit free agency. Its also hard to remember that with the economy, and the overall market, 5 years from now 175 million might be the floor for number 3 starters. So this contract might look like a steal
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 6, 2023 13:35:31 GMT -5
10 years 310 mill. Not only is he a 25 year old ace but we need him. If its a bad contract years 7-10 thats ok. We arnt going to get FAs to sign with us for market value as a bottom of the division team. Overpay for an ace hopefully improve the team without giving up prospects and attract FAs to want to play with us because of the winning culture so we can sign guy for market value or a tad under like the Braves.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 6, 2023 13:46:21 GMT -5
Welp...
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 6, 2023 13:53:30 GMT -5
He already has a "B" on his cap. Perfect!
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Post by Guidas on Dec 6, 2023 18:59:08 GMT -5
Still in the hunt under the "two...unidentifed clubs" At least, according to The Athletic. Excerpt: Seven teams, including five known clubs, have emerged as serious suitors for Yamamoto, league sources said. In no particular order, the list is believed to include the New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and the Mets, plus two more unidentified clubs....Yamamoto is expected to come to the United States this weekend, The Athletic confirmed through league sources. It’s believed that the Mets would try to meet with Yamamoto again, just like the other teams remaining seriously interested in signing him. Major league teams can sign Yamamoto through 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 4, but the process is not expected to extend that far, league sources said.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 7, 2023 19:06:05 GMT -5
1. It’s not going to be MFY. They’re already in the 90%, and rubbing up against the 110% CBT penalty and they still have a ton of holes to fill. Add YY and it erases the CBT relief they get from Soto leaving next year and they’re already three years in.
2. SFG make plenty of sense on a lot of levels. Some comforts of home culturally; forgiving ballpark, media, and fanbase; FO tired of being the bridesmaid.
3. TOR can’t afford both YY and Ohtani.
4. Ditto LAD. One of those two is out. Both have major Japanese communities.
5. Everyone assumes that NYM will just top the highest bid. Money talks, it doesn’t get on a plane to Japan. I think Cohen is trying to finesse rather than out-muscle the competition. Is he gaslighting his fans and waiting until 2025 to open the wallet back up?
Mystery team #1: who knows?
Mystery team #2: BOS have been linked to YY all along and Breslow’s recent statements indicate he still thinks he’s in the game. But that’s some pretty stiff competition. I don’t like our odds unless Henry wants to really make a statement like he did with Price. “Nice ballclub you got there, Steve. Where’s your NHL, Premier League and racing teams?”
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Post by melvinhoggs on Dec 7, 2023 20:21:33 GMT -5
1. It’s not going to be MFY. They’re already in the 90%, and rubbing up against the 110% CBT penalty and they still have a ton of holes to fill. Add YY and it erases the CBT relief they get from Soto leaving next year and they’re already three years in. 2. SFG make plenty of sense on a lot of levels. Some comforts of home culturally; forgiving ballpark, media, and fanbase; FO tired of being the bridesmaid. 3. TOR can’t afford both YY and Ohtani. 4. Ditto LAD. One of those two is out. Both have major Japanese communities. 5. Everyone assumes that NYM will just top the highest bid. Money talks, it doesn’t get on a plane to Japan. I think Cohen is trying to finesse rather than out-muscle the competition. Is he gaslighting his fans and waiting until 2025 to open the wallet back up? Mystery team #1: who knows? Mystery team #2: BOS have been linked to YY all along and Breslow’s recent statements indicate he still thinks he’s in the game. But that’s some pretty stiff competition. I don’t like our odds unless Henry wants to really make a statement like he did with Price. “Nice ballclub you got there, Steve. Where’s your NHL, Premier League and racing teams?” Every big-market team has space for a 25-year-old star. I don't believe the Yankees are out at all, and I don't believe the Dodgers wouldn't continue to pursue him even if they got Ohtani. It's exactly the kind of player you don't mind plunging into the tax thresholds for – by the time he's 30, most of your other contracts are already off the books. I think the Yankees, in particular, are tired of the "old men breaking down" roster construction/perception. Going after two superstars in their mid-20s (Soto and Yamamoto) is a fast way to turn that around. I have my reservations about whether or not the Red Sox could be a mystery team without word of it getting out, but I'll try to stay optimistic until proven otherwise.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Dec 10, 2023 1:22:25 GMT -5
This thread dropped off the main page pretty fast. I guess most have given up that he will be signed by us. We always bow down to the big and powerful NY teams and San Fran Dodgers.
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Post by stunzisox on Dec 10, 2023 2:08:49 GMT -5
Personally my sentiment is half, “it won’t be us”, and half, “I’m done refreshing every 30 minutes”
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