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Alex Verdugo Trade Speculation
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 13, 2023 14:03:49 GMT -5
The problem with Duran and Yoshida is that both are among the worst at their position. Maybe you can live with one or the other, but collectively it makes it so you have by far the worst defensive left/center combination in baseball. Specifically Duran in center is really unpalatable. And moving Verdugo doesn’t help at all with that unless they’ll play Duran in right but they didn’t even try him there this year. From this perspective the redundancy of the three is less important because they already have to move one of the other two out of the outfield or off the team. I get the feeling the whole outfield will be gone with Yoshida to be DH I wouldn’t be surprised and would prefer if our top 4 outfielders are Teoscar Hernandez, Duvall, Rafaela, and Abreu
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 13, 2023 18:40:34 GMT -5
But I addressed the Yoshida issue when I said "either he is a DH or else subtracting Verdugo means the outfield defense is likely to be worse than it was last season, on a team that can't really afford to get worse defensively." If the plan is to keep Yoshida in LF, that's fine, but then it's that much more important that they keep their best defensive outfielder from last season. I disagree that Yoshida/Duran/Duvall/Abreu/Refsnyder is good enough to rely on, especially on defense. The team needs to get better in any way possible, whether defense, pitching or hitting, it shouldn't matter. There's no reason to pick 'defense' as what can't get worse over the other two groupings. But last season the Red Sox top 3 outfielders were a combined -4 OAA, as opposed to the rest of the team which was -47 OAA; the outfield defense was not a major issue. That said, I see Duvall as an equivalent defender to Verdugo, Duran as a likely plus outfielder next season (he was 0 OAA last year, but the only 3 players with better jumps were +10, +9 and +10 in OAA and jump is a more consistent metric) and I see Yoshida as a player who should improve given a 2nd season in MLB and manning the difficult left-field wall at Fenway (which consistently makes fielders look worse statistically than they are). If you count Yoshida as an OF and re-sign Duvall (or the equivalent), then yes, that's six outfielders between those two and Verdugo/Abreu/Refsnyder/Rafaela, but I'm expecting Rafaela to start the year in Worcester, Abreu also hass options, and they need depth in the case of injuries anyway. You forgot about Duran - that makes 7 outfielders. Moving Rafaela to Worcester (which makes sense) then you're still at 6. That means that the team will have 1 player on the active roster to backup 3B, SS and 2B. That's clearly not enough (Turner played 3rd, 1st and 2nd this past season) and I'd hope we can both agree that Cora would not be OK with this. If you move Abreu down, then there's no backup LHH outfielder for a 36yo (and injury plagued) Duvall. I do see the logic of what you and others are saying. I think the judgment just turns on how much we can count on Abreu and Rafaela next season. I'm not ready to trust them with major roles just yet. In fact I think it would be mighty convenient to keep Verdugo around for one more season as we get a longer look at both of them; and if they prove themselves soon enough then Verdugo can be traded at the deadline. That's fair - more depth is always better as injuries and ineffectiveness happen - but the Red Sox look quite deep in the outfield. Given long term control over Yoshida/Duran, Abreu's performance and their best (or 2nd best) prospect at AA - the long term depth of LHH outfielders seems very strong, which is why it doesn't make sense to commit to Verdugo with an extension (not to mention his run-ins with Cora and seeming lack of commitment at times). But if the Red Sox were to keep Verdugo, and his 9mil salary, for OF depth (along with Duvall) then where would you like them to cut back? SP? LH-reliever? 2B? Would you turn down a 3-way trade for Drury (and his 8.5mil AAV) for the extra OF depth? Would you turn down stud lefty reliever Yuki Matsui (or comparable LH-reliever)?
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Post by incandenza on Nov 13, 2023 22:46:11 GMT -5
You forgot about Duran - that makes 7 outfielders. Moving Rafaela to Worcester (which makes sense) then you're still at 6. That means that the team will have 1 player on the active roster to backup 3B, SS and 2B. That's clearly not enough (Turner played 3rd, 1st and 2nd this past season) and I'd hope we can both agree that Cora would not be OK with this. If you move Abreu down, then there's no backup LHH outfielder for a 36yo (and injury plagued) Duvall. Oh duh. Still, they could start Abreu and Rafaela in Worcester and have an OF of Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo/Duvall/Refsnyder. Injuries have a way of solving the "problem" of having too much depth.
Yeah, I don't see much point in extending Verdugo. But having him around for exactly one more year seems ideal - sort of a buffer as Abreu and Rafaela get their sea legs. Drury projects to be worse than Urias, so that particular scenario does not entice me. And $9 million for Verdugo to put up his usual 2 WAR is actually a bargain, and in a season in which they're presumably going over the CBT anyway, so I'm not really feeling it as a cost-cutting move.
Well we'll see. My attitude here is not "they must not trade Verdugo"; it's more "I fail to see the big picture which a Verdugo trade fits into." But maybe that'll emerge.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 14, 2023 0:15:53 GMT -5
I don't mind being alone on Anti-Duvall island and here's why:
He ranked 31st of 32 CF in FG's defensive metric in 2023. He had a 31.2% K rate and 6.2% BB rate. OBP of .303, which was his best since 2019 (career high .315; career avg. .291). He is incredibly streaky. He had an amazing month-plus (8 glorious games in April (1.544 OPS) and a great August (1.045)), one very good July (.815), and a crappy June (.548) and September (.502). To me, that's not a guy to rely on (if only you could know to sit him all of June and September!). Someone can look at the .834 OPS for the season and think, "he had a great year," but it was all squeezed into two months. He turned 35 in September. He won't turn back to 34 next September. The team was 44-48 when he was in the lineup (I didn't realize he played only 92 games). It's not like he moved the needle, even in that crazy April stretch (4-4).
If you bring back everyone from a 78-win team, what will that accomplish? He provided some fun moments, like when he walked off the Orioles in the second game of the season after that kid from NH in LF dropped the easy third out in the 9th. He also had five Golden Sombreros (plus five Hat Tricks) in 92 games.
Please, no more Duvall, especially not as a de facto starter, which he became last season after his hot start. There are better fits for this roster. Let's move on.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 14, 2023 7:15:22 GMT -5
I don't mind being alone on Anti-Duvall island and here's why: He ranked 31st of 32 CF in FG's defensive metric in 2023. He had a 31.2% K rate and 6.2% BB rate. OBP of .303, which was his best since 2019 (career high .315; career avg. .291). He is incredibly streaky. He had an amazing month-plus (8 glorious games in April (1.544 OPS) and a great August (1.045)), one very good July (.815), and a crappy June (.548) and September (.502). To me, that's not a guy to rely on (if only you could know to sit him all of June and September!). Someone can look at the .834 OPS for the season and think, "he had a great year," but it was all squeezed into two months. He turned 35 in September. He won't turn back to 34 next September. The team was 44-48 when he was in the lineup (I didn't realize he played only 92 games). It's not like he moved the needle, even in that crazy April stretch (4-4). If you bring back everyone from a 78-win team, what will that accomplish? He provided some fun moments, like when he walked off the Orioles in the second game of the season after that kid from NH in LF dropped the easy third out in the 9th. He also had five Golden Sombreros (plus five Hat Tricks) in 92 games. Please, no more Duvall, especially not as a de facto starter, which he became last season after his hot start. There are better fits for this roster. Let's move on. Defensive stats generally aren’t stable over a one year period and he has a history of being a plus defender across the outfield. With age and what looked like increased hesitation post-injury maybe his decline is really, but I don’t think we can be fully sure yet. Besides, depending on what else they do they wouldn’t necessarily need to plan on playing him in center. To the broader point, I don’t think anyone is arguing that they should bring back everyone from last year, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t bring back anyone, and the market is pretty thin when it comes to righty outfielders. Plus someone like Duvall on a one year deal allows them to run a higher payroll this year because you know he’ll be off the books next, easier to fit those sort of contracts in.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Nov 14, 2023 7:27:11 GMT -5
It would be great to have a better RHH than Duvall, but who? This team is going to have a RHH who can pay 1b and a RHH (besides Refsnyder) who can play COF or DH (might be one guy). Many of the possibilities would be worse than Duval on offense and/or defense, esp. given our large RF. Most of them would probably cost more, in b both cash and years. Plus Duvall hit like a Kryptonian from Jul 23 to Sep 3:. 298.360.677 1.038.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 14, 2023 13:59:46 GMT -5
You forgot about Duran - that makes 7 outfielders. Moving Rafaela to Worcester (which makes sense) then you're still at 6. That means that the team will have 1 player on the active roster to backup 3B, SS and 2B. That's clearly not enough (Turner played 3rd, 1st and 2nd this past season) and I'd hope we can both agree that Cora would not be OK with this. If you move Abreu down, then there's no backup LHH outfielder for a 36yo (and injury plagued) Duvall. Oh duh. Still, they could start Abreu and Rafaela in Worcester and have an OF of Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo/Duvall/Refsnyder. Injuries have a way of solving the "problem" of having too much depth.
Yeah, I don't see much point in extending Verdugo. But having him around for exactly one more year seems ideal - sort of a buffer as Abreu and Rafaela get their sea legs. Drury projects to be worse than Urias, so that particular scenario does not entice me. And $9 million for Verdugo to put up his usual 2 WAR is actually a bargain, and in a season in which they're presumably going over the CBT anyway, so I'm not really feeling it as a cost-cutting move.
Well we'll see. My attitude here is not "they must not trade Verdugo"; it's more "I fail to see the big picture which a Verdugo trade fits into." But maybe that'll emerge.
Steamer likes Urias more than Drury due to their ages and pre-2022 bodies of work, but Urias was under 85 EV last year while Drury has been just shy of 90 for the last 2 years - I don't trust steamer on this one. But insert another similar player if you prefer, the point is still that taking away from a starting 2B to keep Verdugo is not the best move in my opinion due to the young depth. You didn't mention what you're willing to sacrifice to keep Verdugo's 9mil salary. With your hypothetical outfield, the team would need to have a LHH 2nd backup infielder who can also play the outfield at a serviceable level. Hamilton and Fitzgerald seem like they would be the top internal choices. I'm sure nobody expects Fitzgerald to be on the opening day roster, so if you're a big Hamilton fan, then I can see the fit. The bigger picture, as noted, is that he isn't a long-term piece and his salary will restrict the 2024 team building. But if the team choose to go all-out-Mets in spending or they strike-out on their FA/trade acquisitions and have extra payroll, then I'd be all for keeping him. No reason to trade him unless it helps in other areas, which I expect it will.
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Post by asm19 on Nov 15, 2023 11:06:54 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/exploring-a-second-alex-verdugo-trade/Good read on Verdugo's potential market. As Baumann makes a great point of: if you're another team, it's not exactly a clear cut win to trade stuff for Verdugo and pay him 9-10 mil, when guys like Heyward, Pham, Duvall are available for money only.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 15, 2023 11:22:00 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/exploring-a-second-alex-verdugo-trade/Good read on Verdugo's potential market. As Baumann makes a great point of: if you're another team, it's not exactly a clear cut win to trade stuff for Verdugo and pay him 9-10 mil, when guys like Heyward, Pham, Duvall are available for money only. This is where being a deep-pocketed club works to your advantage. You pay all of Doogie's salary, so teams have the option of filling that role (starting veteran OF) by only giving up prospects and paying nothing. Many teams owners would prefer that to spending $8-10m.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 15, 2023 11:39:19 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/exploring-a-second-alex-verdugo-trade/Good read on Verdugo's potential market. As Baumann makes a great point of: if you're another team, it's not exactly a clear cut win to trade stuff for Verdugo and pay him 9-10 mil, when guys like Heyward, Pham, Duvall are available for money only. I don’t know how good a point that actually is, the reason you do that is because Verdugo projects to be worth ~50% more than those guys next year and has a lot more upside.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2023 11:50:15 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/exploring-a-second-alex-verdugo-trade/Good read on Verdugo's potential market. As Baumann makes a great point of: if you're another team, it's not exactly a clear cut win to trade stuff for Verdugo and pay him 9-10 mil, when guys like Heyward, Pham, Duvall are available for money only. I don’t know how good a point that actually is, the reason you do that is because Verdugo projects to be worth ~50% more than those guys next year and has a lot more upside. Right - if a team has a constrained budget and wants to compete Verdugo makes more sense because he adds surplus value which you can spend elsewhere. I also think he has a higher floor than any of those listed guys. At the same time he’s not so good that I see a team giving up a big prospect return for him, which they’d have to to make it make sense for the Red Sox, especially if the Red Sox eat any salary.
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